Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/28/18

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s chat, my first in two weeks after time spent on Cape Cod with family and in Denver meeting our readers and my fellow staffers — and checking out Coors Field for the first time.

That visit had me wondering about the Rockies’ recent problems in assembling a productive outfield, which I wrote about for today https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-cant-the-rockies-put-together-an-o…

Meanwhile, I’ll have an InstaGraphs page for this up later today, but if you’re a Washington DC area resident a visitor who will be in town for the All-Star Futures Game, you’re invited to a book signing at the great Politics and Prose, where Keith Law (ESPN Insider prospect expert and author of Smart Baseball) and I (author of Cooperstown Casebook) will sign and discuss our respective books on Saturday, July 14 at 6 pm. See https://www.politics-prose.com/event/book/keith-law-smart-baseball-jay… for more details in the interim.

Jay Jaffe: With that out of the way, let’s get to the questions!

Jeff: So with no Mets baseball to watch all summer, what should I do with all this free time?

Jay Jaffe: Read some books, spend time with family/children, devote yourself to a cause, sign up for MLB TV and watch other teams… there’s plenty to do, and you will survive. You might even be healthier for it.

Fred: What kind of HOF case is Arenado building, and how do you think playing in Coors will affect his chances?

Jay Jaffe: Arenado’s years old and in his sixth season. If he keeps playing as he has been thus far in 2018, he’ll have four seasons in the vicinity of 6 bWAR (or better), a strong foundation to build upon along with the more traditional measures. Voters have had a hard time figuring out what to do with the credentials of Larry Walker given his time at Coors, and they’re likely to do the same when it comes to Todd Helton, who become eligible this winter and is in the vicinity of the JAWS standard at first base (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_1B.shtml), above on peak and below on career WAR. I think Arenado will be in better shape because of the perception and impact of his highlight-film defense, but it’s still probably an uphill battle for any Rockies player.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Jay, let’s publicly rip into the jerk who has caused $4M in damage to the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. And remind folks that they can donate to the refurbishing efforts!

Jay Jaffe: while it’s far from the worst news of the week, it’s really uncool what some people will stoop to., and worth checking out how you can help. They have a donations button on their home page https://www.nlbm.com/

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Oh man! Politics and Prose is fantastic. I just moved to the west coast, but I encourage anyone in the DC area to attend!

Jay Jaffe: Hell yes!

The Old Buccaneer: Is there any bright side to the Orioles’ situation?

Jay Jaffe: Their season is only 83 games from completion, and Manny Machado is having a much better year with the bat than in 2017, which should help offset the less-than-flattering defensive metrics that have come with his move back to shortstop. Zach Britton is back on the mound and working to recover his value. Adam Jones and Danny Valencia might bring back warm bodies in July trades as well.

That’s about all I’ve got, sorry.

Moelicious: Is the Kyle Hendricks era over? The league seems to have caught up to him

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t seen much of him, but a quick look at the numbers tells me his velo is fine (for him, at least), though just about everything else is moving in the wrong direction — more hard contact, more home runs, fewer strikeouts (but about the same rate of whiffs). Last night wasn’t a good one for him but he’s not the only offender in that Cubs rotation right now.

Bo: What do you make of the Mets supposedly willing to shop DeGrom and Syndergaard? Chances either are moved?

Jay Jaffe: I’d guess that the chances they move one of the two might be as high as 50/50, but that it would take a massive package for either and perhaps an agreement from the other one on a long-term extension so as to more clearly lay out what they’re trying to do. And neither pitcher is going to wind up with the Yankees.

Mike: What does Bumgarner need to do over the rest of his career to make a strong case for the Hall of Fame (in addition to staying off dirt bikes)?

Jay Jaffe: He’s obviously got the postseason credentials, but because AT&T is such a pitchers’ park, he hasn’t racked up particularly high bWARs so far;  5.1 in 2015 is his highest (or 5.7 in 2016 including his batting, which counts in JAWS) and that makes for a pretty low peak from an advanced stat perspective. He’s never finished higher than 4th in a Cy Young vote, either. I’d say he’s got a hell of a lot of work to do, still.

Ryan: Also- please check out the new Baseball Americana exhibit at the Library of Congress, opening tomorrow!

Jay Jaffe: Another reason to come out to DC!

Lou: What would help the Dodgers more, getting an impact bat like Machado or getting a reliable bridge to Jansen like Hand?

Jay Jaffe: They have a much greater need for bullpen help than for offense. I have a hard time envisioning them giving up the kind of package that the Orioles are rumored to want in exchange for Machado.

Jay Jaffe: That said they do have outfield depth from which to deal, and so if they can build somethign around a guy like Alex Verdugo, maybe that’s a start

Jeff: My wife and I have mlb.tv and were discussing what AL team we want to be our Mets-alternative. She said the Angels because of Mike Trout, but I’m worried that the Angels are basically just like watching the Mets if the Mets happened to have Trout. I’m thinking the Mariners? Or is that similarly setting us up for late-season heartbreak?

Jay Jaffe: Other than Yankees/Red Sox in the AL East, and the battle for home field advantage that also includes the Astros, the entire AL playoff picture may boil down to whether the Mariners or the Angels will get a wild card spot. Both teams have reasons to watch but the Angels are fading and they just lost Zack Cozart for the year due to a torn labrum. I’d suggest checking out both teams — definitely get you some Trout — and seeing if either calls to you as worthy of your rooting interest. There’s also the NL West and Central races to get involved in if you want to keep your distance from any conflicting emotions within the NL East.

Babe Lincoln: deGrom for Cy?

Jay Jaffe: Right now it seems to be deGrom and Scherzer as the top two. It depends how well each of them holds up over the course of the season.

Mike: Is Bryce Harper costing himself significant FA $$?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, probably costing himself some money, but by the time all of the opt-outs and other bells and whistles are in his deal, it’s not going to matter. He’ll snap out of this slump sooner or later. and get a very large contract.

Nick: Will the Braves make the playoffs as their roster stands now?

Jay Jaffe: Like every other contender, they’ll need some reinforcements, particularly because they need to be mindful of the workloads of their youngsters and the injury histories of guys like McCarthy and Sanchez. Third base, veteran starter, bullpen — i’d expect them to fill at least two of those needs in the coming weeks.

Mike: The Cubs, Dodgers, and Nats all sit at about 85% chance of playoffs, and none lead their division. Who is the most likely to miss the playoffs of these 3?

Jay Jaffe: The Dodgers, if they don’t get Kershaw back in working order.

Mike: Which MLB pitchers, if their careers ended today, would make the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: Kershaw is the only lock from among today’s pitchers given his three Cy Youngs and dominance — he’d get a Koufax-like short career exception. Verlander, Greinke, Sabathia and Scherzer still have a good deal of work to do, and Kluber a massive amount given his late start.

tyler: Do you mention Dwight Evans in your book?

Jay Jaffe: Yes. He’s 15th in JAWS among RF and I did a capsule write-up of him. He’s a bit below the WAR standards but worth discussing.

Stats Dude: Do you query your own database to build a statistical argument, or do you query an existing database, i.e. Statcast?

Jay Jaffe: Learning SQL is something on my to-do list, and maybe other database stuff as well, but right now, I grind through publicly available stuff like B-Ref and http://baseballsavant.mlb.com/

Bo: Cause for concern yet if you’re the Cubs?

Jay Jaffe: That rotation is a mess besides Lester, whose underlying peripherals give me concern anyway, as I noted earlier this week. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jon-lesters-high-wire-act/

Moltar: I’d say Harper is costing himself significant money – not in percentage of overall contract, but the difference between a $300m deal and a $350m deal is still 50 million dollars. That is very significant!!!

Jay Jaffe: In terms of the overall sticker value yes but if he’s going to opt out after 3-4 years, you’re probably talking about a difference in the length of a deal that won’t be fulfilled anyway.

Bill: Any optimism with Amed Rosario? Seems like he’s improved his approach and K% but the stat line is ugly

Jay Jaffe: I’m optimistic based on the fact that he’s still 22, but beyond that… a 3.1% walk rate and negatives in the defensive metrics don’t fill me with much hope.

Jkim: What is the baseball equivalent of Korea beating Germany yesterday?

Jay Jaffe: My more soccer-attuned pal offers the 1988 Dodgers or 19990 Reds over the A’s in their respective World Series.

The patch KHole in Calhoun’s bat: Verlander is a lock for HoF, RoY, he was league MVP/CYA (multiple top 5 finishes) and has a WS ring now. Plus, he married a super model

Jay Jaffe: Of the guys I listed after Kershaw, he’s the best positioned, but he’s no lock yet. You just can’t call any pitcher whose career ends at 35 (which is what the question proposed, career ending today) with one Cy Young and fewer than 200 wins a lock.

Bo: Braves just DL’d McCarthy to bring Acuna off the DL (on an off day no less)… Surely they’re planning to make another move since it would’ve been more beneficial to option Wisler who just pitched.

Jay Jaffe:

John: Has too much been made about the Mariners window closing this year or next? They’re a pretty good team right now and are getting very little production from the so-called “core” all of the writers seem to harp on (Cano, Cruz, Felix). It seems DiPoto has created a team to compete for a while with the likes of: Segura, Gordon, Haniger, Gonzales, Diaz, Paxton, etc. All of them under the age of 30.

Jay Jaffe: Cruz is having an excellent season with the bat (154 wRC+, tops on the team), but yes, you make a good point about the fact that Dipoto has quietly rounded up a younger core to offset the aging vets. It remains to be seen if they can sustain what they’re doing but it’s a good start on the team’s next phase.

El Torito: Gleybar Torres was moved at the deadline to help the Cubs end their WS drought. Which top prospect will be moved at the deadline in order to help a contender?

Jay Jaffe: My wild-ass, no-research-besides-skimming-a-top-100 list is the Nationals’ Victor Robles, who’s been injured and leapfrogged by Juan Soto, but if that sentence doesn’t already contain enough caveats, then let’s just say that I’ve heard nothing about their desire to move him, and htat I’m not sure they have a big enough need to fill yet that would require punting him.

Matt VW: Are we seeing the end of Dustin Pedroia?

Jay Jaffe: I hope not, but it’s hardly uncommon for second basemen to fall off the map at this stage of their careers.

Vader: Do you see the A’s dealing Cahill, and what kind of return could he net?

Jay Jaffe: No. Given that the A’s have actually passed the Angels in the AL West standings, they’re theoretically in play for a wild card spot if they play very well and one of the Yanks/Sox/Mariners group hits the skids. They’re more likely buying than selling.

Bill: Dustin Fowler seems like he’s being overlooked regularly. Just because of the platoon situation? Seems like he has some upside

Jay Jaffe: Eric and Kiley have him as a 50 FV guy on their revised top 100 list so yes, there’s certainly some upside there. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/

Aaron: Do the Rockies try to dump one of those bad reliever contracts if they keep playing like garbage? As a Braves fan, I’d really like to kick the tires on Jake McGee to get him out of Coors.

Jay Jaffe: Relievers struggling in the first year of big multi-year contracts? Yeah, you can bet the other 29 teams are lining up around the block to take on those deals.  

I kid. I don’t see any of them being moved because of how much $ the Rockies would have to eat, and it’s generally pretty bad form to move a player you just signed to a long-term FA deal six months ago. That guy has committed to being there, and it looks Marlins-level bad if you turn it into a fire sale 6 months later.

Bo: Any big names that could be dealt that aren’t as talked about? Guys like Stroman or Moustakas.

Jay Jaffe: Moose will surely be moved. Stroman has had shoulder issues and underperformed, and there’s absolutely no incentive for the Blue Jays to sell low on him.

David B: The with the indians Bullpen being as dumpster-fire as it is, the reds trading iglesias to them makes too much sense, right? What kind of return would the reds expect?

Jay Jaffe: lots of Iglesias questions. He’s a good reliever with a non-elite strikeout rate and two more affordable years ($10 million total) beyond this. I’m skeptical that a deal at this juncture would bring back somebody that could (but might not) turn into a bigger-impact player beyond another late-game reliever who’s less established but with more club control.

JB: Matt Harvey…few lucky starts or has he figured it out?

Jay Jaffe: He’s stopped the bleeding — no homers allowed in his last 3 starts, against Pirates, Cubs and Braves. Beyond that I haven’t really checked into him; i’d look at the quality of contact lately. If he keeps this up, he’s at least worth taking a flyer on at the deadline, bur right now that’s still a big if.

Slew : Should Cleveland be trying to pry Machado free?

Jay Jaffe: If they can get him without burning down the farm system, I think he makes a lot of sense, putting him at 3B and moving Jose Ramirez to 2B. That would be one hell of an infield with those two and Lindor.

Nick: How does fangraphs acquire it’s statistical information? I mean do they get a data dump every night from some source or what?

Jay Jaffe: Multiple sources, as I understand it. I don’t think there are any big secrets about it, but I don’t know a lot.

Matt D: Is Josh Donaldson on the David Wright injury plan(TM) or will we see him again, productive healthy and in the lineup?  If so, which year?

Jay Jaffe: Jeez. Donaldson has a calf strain, not spinal stenosis. That said, I doubt he’s going to be much of an impact player this year; I think the Blue Jays will get a better return trying to sneak him through waivers in August or simply holding onto him and seeing if he bites on a qualifying offer with a chance to shore up his value after 2019 .

Ddubbs: Why is Scooter Gennett not valued higher around the league? He’s the best offensive second baseman in the National League and it’s not really close

Jay Jaffe: Ozzie Albies begs to differ, at least in the grand scheme (i.e., not a couple of hot months by a guy with a sharp mid-career uptick).

Gennett can be useful for a contender for sure, but we’re still talking about a guy with a 6% walk rate, a .386 BABIP and not-great defensive metrics at second.

El Mago: So I’m biased as a Cubs fan, but is Javy Baez viewed by outsiders as the most exciting player in baseball? Every day he makes an amazing defensive play, and his offensive numbers(minus the OBP) are great!! All-Star this year?

Jay Jaffe: The MOST? i dunno but he’s certainly fun to watch given his defense, speed and power, and in spite of that ugly 4% walk rate. Quite possibly an All-Star, yes.

Yup: Do you think Degrom will return more than Sale did if traded? Mostly because there are really no aces on the market this summer

Jay Jaffe: no. The Sale deal brought such a huge return because of his below-market contract ($39.5 million over three years if the options were picked up) while deGrom has only two years of control that will likely wind up at a higher AAV (though still dragged down by being arb-year salaries).

Jeff: Thanks, I think we’ll go with an Angels-Mariners tandem and report back. Too many hard feelings in the NL, while I don’t have anything against the Cubs really other than jealousy, the Dodgers still employ Buttley and I can’t bring myself to root for any of the 19 Diamondbacks uniforms.

Jay Jaffe: It is absolutely hilarious the way that Chase Utley occupies a palatial estate in the head of every Mets fan.

Alan: What do you think the Rays need to do to compete for a WC in 2019? Or is that unrealistic?

Jay Jaffe: hope that baseball expands and puts them in a division by themselves

Jonny: If expansion to 32 teams occurs, there would be an extra 38 position player WAR to go around. Some, but probably not a lot, of that would go to the extra 50 roster spots created, but would that extra WAR/the slight decrease of caliber of a replacement level player, measurably impact the WAR totals of someone like Trout or would we be talking hundredths of a percent?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s a very small effect that would be tough to perceive with the naked eye.

VampWeekAtBern: What kind of package could the Reds expect to get in return for Scooter Gennett?  He has been a great hitter as a Red, but Nick Senzel looks like the second baseman of the future.

Jay Jaffe: it wouldn’t be a Jay Jaffe FanGraphs chat without a Senzel-related question, even if he is out for the year. Gennett has one year of arb-eligibility remaining, so the Reds can be selective about dealing him, and they’re not going to bring up Senzel without gaming his service time next year (super two, June). My guess is that he brings back a guy on the lower quarter of a top 100 prospect list, and a lottery ticket.

VampWeekAtBern: Are you related to Eric Jaffe?

Jay Jaffe: I have a cousin with that name, but he’s not the former White Sox farmhand.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, I need to grab some lunch and start on tomorrow’s article/ Thanks for stopping by!