Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/9/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. It’s a lovely day here in Brooklyn, but no, I don’t have Knicks fever. After 31 years running along the spectrum from antipathy to apathy towards the team, I’m indifferent at best to their run to the NBA Finals while my wife and daughter (who’s never rooted for a men’s basketball team before) are swept up in it.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’ve got a forthcoming piece on the White Sox’s turnaround today (2 PM ET). Most recently, I wrote about Roki Sasaki’s turnaround (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/roki-sasaki-is-putting-it-all-together) and Aaron Judge’s injury (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tough-break-aaron-judge-will-miss-time…).

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show

bkgeneral: Why don’t more teams sell earlier in the season?  It seems you would get more for 100 games of use over say 75.

Jay Jaffe: I think there’s a lot going on early in the season, with front offices focusing on the amateur draft as well as on the rosters they spent the previous months building, and on the earliest wave of players who might help from within (perhaps related to service time shenanigans but not necessarily)

Jay Jaffe: After the draft and the All-Star break, it’s easier to focus on the realities of what they’ve put together and where they fit with regards to the playoff races

Steven Shumansky: Hi Jay; What do you think of Paul Goldschmidt’s surprising resurgence. Does this guarantee his HOF credentials?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been on the Goldschmidt HOF bandwagon for awhile given that he passed the peak standard during his 2022 MVP season and since then has cleared 2,000 hits and padded his totals. He’s adapted well to a platoon role, and so long as he continues to hit lefties, he’s going to be able to stick around and continue to be discussed as a future Hall of Famer.

Jay Jaffe: FWIW he’s 14th in JAWS, just past Helton, and could overtake both Joey Votto and Rafael Palmeiro this summer:

Jay Jaffe:

maximus74: Are Eury’s struggles with command this year just normal post-TJ issues?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a reasonable assumption, and I wonder how long he was pitching through the gracilis (inner thigh) strain that sidelined him in late May.

Broken Bat: What teams that are 5 or more out if first place today, do you expect to have a good rest of season and mybe finish #1 in their division?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see any of the 5-out teams as particularly likely to finish first, and neither do our Playoff Odds; the Pirates, Phillies, A’s and Twins are all in the 9% range for winning the division, and everybody else is below them. I’d call the Blue Jays — who like the two AL teams cited there — are currently below .500  (32-35) the outsiders most likely to shake up the current playoff picture in the AL and (throwing a dart) the Pirates to do so in the NL.

JustinPBG: I know “yankee stadium lol” but Bellinger has really outperformed Tucker despite everyone saying it was a bad choice. Yes, 5 years, but we’re talking about this year and next etc.

Jay Jaffe: Bellinger always looked like a good fit for the Yankees, and not just because of that short right field porch; his defense fits in well with the way the roster is constructed, and I think his temperament is well suited for the team and market. I wouldn’t count Tucker out yet, but he’s off to a slowish start obviously

dan norman lear: What do you think are the chances of an early November   selectively placed article in which we discover Kyle Tucker has been ‘wrestling with a wrist injury all season’?

Jay Jaffe: Dunno specifically about a wrist injury — his bat-tracking metrics haven’t really budged, though his attack angle is shallower — but it wouldn’t surprise me if it comes out that he’s less than 100%. With that kind of contract/AAV, it would be understandable if he’s pressing to stay in the lineup. This is all sheer speculation at this point, though.

diamondnine: Hi Jay, I read and study a lot analytics from all of the public resources but, admittedly, I’m limited in my knowledge of how the numbers work and why they work. I’ve had an idea for quite some time for a podcast where the topic is informed by a lot of these numbers. However, I struggle with the confidence to actually go for it because of my limited knowledge on the details behind the metrics. Is this something that should actually derail my idea? Or is it possible to do a good, informative job when I primarily understand what the metrics tell us as opposed to why?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t follow the podcast sphere closely at all (can’t listen to talking while I write, don’t have a commute, need to hear music when I work out), but I do think it’s going to be tougher to get noticed if you don’t have a firmer handle on “the why” of what’s happening. Not dismissing your idea or your dream but it might be worth taking more time to deepen your knowledge (or find a partner who complements your areas of understanding) before going forward.

dan999999: Judge is the 8th ranked outfielder by fWAR right now. How many people will pass him before he plays again.

Jay Jaffe: well, he’s at 2.2 WAR and has eight outfielders within half a win and 18 within one win. I’ll go with at least 10 guys passing him, and that’s probably on the lower side

InsertWittyNameHere: As a Phillies fan, I’m still smarting about Ruin Tomorrow Jr.’s failure to rebuild when the time was right.  The Phils are locked into a lot of older “stars” until the end of the decade.  Highly unlikely of course, but how much of a haul could they realistically get if they traded Schwarber, Sanchez, and whoever else that doesn’t have a NTC?

Jay Jaffe: They would get a TON for Sanchez, who’s signed for very reasonable terms, particularly over the next few seasons (salaries of $15 million or less thru 2030). Less so for Schwarber who was already an overpay, but one presumes they’d be willing to pay down his deal in order to get talent in return. I don’t see that happening any more than you do, though, and would probably suggest that there be a regime change before it does happen.

Ragbrai: Eldridge a full time starter this year? Or are we still waiting to see? How about next year?

Jay Jaffe: Dude’s hitting .287/.364/.448 through 99 PA so far and has mashed lefties in a very small sample. The Giants can’t really afford for him NOT to be a full-timer given the shape they’re in — and to be fair, their offense has been one of the majors’ best lately, with an MLB-high 120 wRC+ since his debut on May 4.

Philip Christy: Might as well let Carlos Mendoza finish the season at this point, eh?

Jay Jaffe: The team has been reasonably hot lately, and the injuries aren’t Mendoza’s fault, so I don’t see a change coming soon. It wouldn’t surprise me if he lasts the season, though a bottoming-out — another month like April, when they went 7-19 — could force Stearns’ hand.

tjcook87: What’s the distinction between a GM and a President of Baseball Ops/COO/etc? Like, Dave Dombrowski is a POBO but seems to run the show like a GM. He’s also been a GM in the past. Ostensibly the Dodgers have a GM (maybe? Maybe not?) but Andrew Friedman runs the show. What’s the difference beyond title/comp/etc? Seems like similar job duties to a layman’s eyes, and I’ve never really probed the difference beyond a quick Google search.

Jay Jaffe: I think the exact division of responsibilities varies from team to team. A lot of POBO positions were created in order to justify wooing GMs from other teams, since it’s far more possible to recruit an exec from another team via a promotion than via a lateral move, but at the same time, front offices have generally gotten larger in the age of analytics, requiring greater integration of the various aspects of running a team. I do think of teams with POBO/GM setups as delegating more of the minutiae of day to day roster management to the GM, but again, I think it varies.

war2d2: With benefits of hindsight, do you think the best play for the Cubs would have been to sign Belanger to a long-term deal instead of trading for Tucker? He’s slightly outperformed Tucker by bWAR over the last three seasons combined (~1 bWAR difference), and the Cubs would still have the prospects to dangle for pitching help. That was my feeling at the time, and I feel at least slightly validated by how things have turned out.

Jay Jaffe: Well, Mark Belanger has been dead for 27 years and probably isn’t as good a glove man these days as Swanson…

But assuming you mean Bellinger, that alternate history might have worked out better for the Cubs, though I don’t think you can simply say he would have replicated what he’s done in the Bronx in 2025-26 in Chicago due to the favorable fit of Yankee Stadium.

Ampersand: Shota Imanaga had a great start to the season but has been shelled in his last four starts. Random variance or is there something to worry about? The Cubs certainly don’t need more starter issues

Jay Jaffe: Man he has been shellacked lately, with ERA and FIP above 10 over his past four starts while serving up 12 homers in 21.2 innings. I really do wonder if he’s gutting out a physical issue, reluctant to report it given the slew of injuries around him but… again, that’s spitballing.

Hmmm, there’s an idea: maybe he should try a spitball.

Phil: That is insane that Belanger has been dead 27 years. I saw him play. I’m so old, Jay!

Jay Jaffe: Here’s one I think about: my time following baseball on a day-to-day basis (excluding the college years) spans 48 years now (1978–2026), which is longer than the 43-year span between Babe Ruth’s last game and the start of that following (1935–78)

Jay Jaffe: I think this is the point I’m supposed to raise my cane and shout at the teenagers to get off my lawn!

Ragbrai: It seems more teams this season are ‘closer by committee.” Just a fluke year or do you see this as a new trend. Is the “closer” becoming a dinosaur? Does if effect HOF discussions of current closers?

Jay Jaffe: it’s been more than a decade in the making that teams have invested less in star closers and therefore taken a more flexible approach to the role. Analytics has a lot to do with it, both in terms of identifying better in-game matchups (some of which don’t strictly follow lefty-righty platoon breakdowns) and in terms of finding pitchers — particularly hard throwers — who do certain things well, making some tweaks in grip and/or usage, and turning them into viable late-inning arms.

war2d2: Good lord, my typing has gotten worse. Last week I said “gargled” instead of “garbled” and now I’m misspelling Berlinger. Bollinger. Bangalore?

Jay Jaffe: I kid — gotta find some levity here — but I knew what you meant in both instances

leoneforthird: Kade Anderson is better than Luis Castillo at this point right?  Should the Mariners just go with a 6 man rotation with Anderson and either trade Castillo or convince him to move to the bullpen?

Jay Jaffe: Anderson definitely looks like something special but he’s also got 49 pro innings, at Double-A, and Castillo, for as high as his ERA is, is basically in line with his strikeout and home run rates; it’s largely his walk rate that’s out of walk. I’ll never count out the likelihood of Dipoto making trades, and I think we’ll see Anderson in the majors at some point this year if he stays healthy, but I don’t think they’re going to simply swap him in for Castillo before moving him to Triple-A and taking a longer look.

Ragbrai: Dotel in Pittsburgh spent time in the bullpen in AAA. Since being called up I think his usage is more as a SP. where do you think is future lays?

Jay Jaffe: Luckily for you, Eric Longenhagen just wrote about Dotel for the Pirates prospect list last week: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pittsburgh-pirates-top-50-prospects/

So far he’s made seven appearances in relief, four of them in the 3-4 inning range. It sounds like the team is in the midst of tweaking a whole bunch of things but probably still views him as a starter.

Jay Jaffe: Here’s Eric’s conclusion but I’d suggest you read the whole thing:

“Dotel’s long-term role is likely going to be in a rotation, as industry inventory demands that the durable strike-throwers like this end up eating innings. Here he’s graded as a rock solid no. 4/5 starter who needs to sharpen a secondary pitch to profile as a contender’s mid-rotation guy.”

Ragbrai: Love the HOF but if there was an Almost-HOF, which would have more members?

Jay Jaffe: By far the Almost-HOF. Baseball talent at the professional level is at the far end of a bell curve, with many more replacement level players than average-or-better ones, and in turn far more of those than HOF-caliber superstars.

Brendan Gawlowski: Jay, I need help with the Marlins list. Who do you like in the Pensacola bullpen?

Jay Jaffe: I was going to go with Jeckferxon Hernandez because HOLY SHIT is that a first name, then I realized i was looking at 2025 stats.

Jay Jaffe: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jeckferxon-hernandez/sa3022279/stats…

Jay Jaffe: So I’ll say Nate Payne based on his strikeout rate

(btw, i have confirmed this really was Brendan, who helps me far more than I help him in this area I can assure you all)

jzmaxson27: Are the Brewers platooning Andrew Vaughn too much, or the exact right amount?

Jay Jaffe: Small sample because he’s coming back from hamate surgery, but his 80 wRC+ so far (in 59 PA) against righties is in line with his numbers from the past two seasons so, I don’t think the answer is too much.

showbusiness77: Are you familiar with Adam Darowski’s Hall of Stats website/project and do you think it is feasible for someone to take ownership/make it actively updating again?

Jay Jaffe: I’m familiar with it of course, but I think Adam decided to retire it while moving on to other projects — he has a forthcoming book (https://bsky.app/profile/adarowski.bsky.social/post/3mdvavux7js22). You’d have to ask him whether he’s interested.

Phillip Denny: Do you have Mookie and/or Freddie going into the hall as a Dodger, their respective former teams, or blank caps?

Jay Jaffe: Having been alerted that a previous assertion of mine about Freeman with an LA cap was more or less outside of precedent given his time with Atlanta (I forget the specifics) I suspect both wind up with blank caps

Cosmo: You’re from NY… did you hear the MSG boos all the way in Brooklyn last night?

Jay Jaffe: I could feel them through the terrain. Gotta hand it to the boo-birds, they represented our fair city well last night!

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks. that’s it from me for today. Thanks so much for stopping by, — look for that White Sox article at 2 pm ET — and we’ll do this again next week.