Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/21/26

Jay Jaffe: Howdy, folks! Apologies for the late notice on today’s chat. I was wrapping up a piece on Shohei Ohtani’s pause from pitching and had some away-from-keyboard responsibilities that prevented me from putting together the nuts and bolts for this chat.

Jay Jaffe: It’s been a few weeks since I was able to pull one of these off due to my annual trip to Cape Cod (which was lovely) and then being buried neck-deep in my annual Replacement-Level Killers series spotlighting the most glaring holes on contending teams. That series wrapped up yesterday with the entry on designated hitters (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-designa…). You can use the navbar atop the article to find the other five entries of the series.

Jay Jaffe: I had a lot of fun this past weekend at Yankee Stadium for the biennial Dodgers-Yankees regular season series. I went on Friday night as a fan and saw Roki Sasaki pitch well and Max Muncy ruin the nights of Gerrit Cole and Aaron Boone, then returned on Sunday for the doubleheader after rain washed away Saturday night’s game. It was a split-admission doubleheader; I was at the ballpark for just over 12 hours and watched most of the World Cup final between games while plugging away at those DHs.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, the question queue is still filling up due to the late notice of this chat, but i’ll dive in.

daml91: Nolan Arenado, the newest member of the 2,000 hit club. Is he in for you?

Jay Jaffe: Oh, i missed this last night as it happened after I wrapped up work and baseball attention. https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-reaches-2-000-career-hits

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Arenado is 20th in JAWS 4.2 points below the career standard but 0.8 WAR above the peak standard, with the 14th-highest peak score at the position. He’s in the midst of a modest resurgence, with 1.6 bWAR so far compared to 1.3 for all of last season. I viewed him as something of a slam dunk a few years ago thanks to his 10 Gold Gloves, eight All-Star selections,  and three Coors-fueled home run titles, but his 30s have been a grind. I’m not sure if he’ll make it to the JAWS standard — he needs another 8.4 WAR after totaling 7.8 since the start of 2023 — but I think he’ll have the “Fame” to get in

Jay Jaffe: And I’ll probably vote for him.

krob4385: Does Lindor’s tough year in any way diminish his HOF chances?

Jay Jaffe: With just 0.5 WAR in 44 games due to injuries, this has been a rough season for Lindor, but he’s still in pretty good shape during his age-32 season:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: He’s about two years younger than Arenado, and with far more recent momentum (5.8 bWAR last year)

Jay Jaffe: If this is the start of a major collapse obviously it doesn’t bode well for him, especially with the outsized expectations that come with a big contract for a New York ballplayer, but i’m not yet ready to downgrade him from a likely future Hall of Famer.

mikeladd123: The 2/3 point of the season is all but here. I feel ROS has too much of prior year bias in most cases to be worthy in making decisions. Is it reasonable to look just at YTD/60 day/30 day type data in making add/drop decisions?

Jay Jaffe: I think it depends what your purpose is. You always want to be trying to estimate a player’s true talent level, but those estimates can be colored by recent injuries and improved/degraded processes — learning a new pitch, adjusting a swing, adapting to a new ballpark/role, etc. If you’re a fantasy player chasing the hot hand, 30 or 60 days might be a better clue as to where a player is headed, but if you’re a GM trying to build a lineup for 2027, you probably need to consider much more data.

JustinPBG: How does the ‘contact wins in october’ myth persist? Especially in the high strikeout environment, it’s probably false. Obviously you would rather contact than not. But… I don’t understand

Jay Jaffe: Not unlike our current political situation, it’s part of a larger culture war with some informational asymmetry. The people with the loudest megaphones — mainstream broadcast and news outlets — aren’t the ones who are doing historical studies; at best maybe a saber- or analytics-friendly broadcaster or reporter might amplify something like that, but may receive strong pushback from the old-school players alongside him (or her).

Phil: It’s being reported that the Red Sox would still consider trading Gray and Chapman. Does that makes sense to you? I get that they have pitching depth in theory, but they also have three of their season-opening starters on the IL, and the bullpen has relied very heavily on guys like Guerrero, Weissert, and Slaten, who all look good now but didn’t not that long ago. This run might not continue, but I would think Breslow would prefer it ending in a way that’s not obviously his fault.

Jay Jaffe: I think given their turnaround and the narrative arc of Breslow’s tenure, they have to be buyers, or at least not sellers, at the deadline. You can’t have too much pitching, and with Crochet’s injury — he’s still not throwing — they’re in absolutely no position to be shedding starting pitching. Maybe they could flip Chapman in a deal that opens up payroll and gets them another live arm for the late innings, but that’s the kind of hubris that gets cited in executive postmortems.

Phillip Denny: You think we’ll have a team break the 05 Padres record (82-80) for worst win percentage to make the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe: Well, the 1981 Royals were 50-53 (.485) but made it into the playoffs because they won the AL West’s second-half race but assuming you mean full season, I think there will still be at least 6 teams in each league with records above .500, though the AL West bears watching.

Phil: What do you think Yoshida will be up to on August 4th? DHing for the Red Sox? Sitting on the bench as an emergency lefty pinch hitter? Playing a mediocre left field for someone else? On a flight to Japan?

Jay Jaffe: Still with the Red Sox because Anthony won’t be back and because I can’t see the team paying down Yoshida’s contract (~$24 million) enough to move him.

tjcook87: As Schwarber seemingly slugs his way into a 500-home run convo, a HoF debate is popping up in slow motion. There’s seemingly zero chance he hits any WAR or JAWS standards, so I’m curious – does he meet any of the “Fame” standards in your eye if he gets to 500 HRs? Or is he just a “nice work being the most statistically accomplished of the 2016 Cubs” type player?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think a Hall voter can or should ignore what will likely stand as one of the best postseason resumés of the era — not to mention Schwarber’s sheer entertainment value — but I’m not yet convinced it will be enough to get him to 75% of the vote. I can’t yet see voting for him myself.

dodgerdog: Do you expect Mike Scioscia to eventually make the HOF as a manager? It seems he needs Bochy and Dusty (and possibly Francona) elected to clear the ballot, but after them should Scioscia be next up? More wins and a higher winning percentage than Lasorda, Herzog and Dick Williams, plus 19 years with the same team. Was also just the third manager to win a WS with no HOF players; the first two (Lasorda and Leyland) are both in the Hall.

Jay Jaffe: As you note, there’s a bit of a logjam ahead of him — and I’d include Lou Piniella, who’s fallen one vote short twice and will almost certainly remain in consideration, too. I think in time Scioscia will get there,  especially because his period at the helm of the Angels continues to look great in retrospect to the shitshow that has ensued since then.

Jeremy Fox: Mookie Betts is 33 and now well into his second straight season as a league average-ish hitter. Sure looks like age-based decline, which if he were still a right fielder might make his HoF case a bit less of slam dunk than it looked like it was going to be two years ago. On the other hand, he turned himself from a right fielder into a solid shortstop in his early 30s, which is basically unprecedented. How has Mookie’s play this season and last affected his HoF case in your mind?

Jay Jaffe: Easy Hall of Famer, still. The mid-career conversion to shortstop has been ridiculous, and he’s now been part of four World Series winners, with 77 bWAR and 66.3 JAWS, not to mention six Gold Gloves, an MVP and three runner-up finishes. Nobody with those credentials and a clean sheet as far as PEDs is concerned is eligible for election and outside the Hall.

war2d2: Yesterday Alex Bregman made a bad swing decision that cost the Cubs the game. I’m still salty about that (and his lackluster season to date), but what do you think the chances are that that matchup (Bregman v. Jansen) winds up in the Hall? I feel like at this point Jansen is as close to a lock as closers get, but Bregman will have to keep producing at a 4-WAR clip for the duration of the Cubs contract for me to feel like he’s got a coin-flip shot at it.

Jay Jaffe: 4-WAR seasons won’t cut it. Bregman only has two seasons of 5.0 bWAR or better, both during the high-homer 2018–19 seasons. He’s 31 and has a 37.8 bWAR peak score, and is gonna need to boost that and to maintain significant longevity to play himself into consideration.

TKDC: Jacob deGrom has two career shutouts outs. Madison Bumgarner has three career playoff shutouts. He is also a year younger than deGrom. Does Bumgarner have any sort of “if you squint, considering his offensive value and postseason and the changing nature of starting pitcher maybe he finds a niche way forward” case for the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: Bumgarner finished his career with just 37.2 bWAR including hitting. But he never came close to winning a Cy Young or leading the league in WAR or a triple-crown category. deGrom has 49.6 bWA, two Cys, two strikeout leads, an ERA lead, a WAR lead, and a solid postseason resumé that isn’t completely overshadowed by Bumgarner’s. I’m lukewarm at best on deGrom’s Hall chances but I like them a whole hell of a lot more than Bumgarner’s (he’ll be on the 2028 ballot).

Jeremy Fox: Do you think Dave Roberts might make the Hall one day as a manager? Or are voters going to take the view that anyone given an all star team to manage would win a bunch of games and multiple WS?

Jay Jaffe: Yes. Three championships plus two pennants and 11 straight playoff appearances, with the highest winning percentage (.621) of any non-Negro Leagues manager is Hall material regardless of how great his roster is. I should note additionally that while the winning percentage will likely regress, the highest of any manager whose career extended into the post-1960 expansion era is that of Al Lopez (.584) so Roberts has a considerable cushion for that distinction.

Jay Jaffe: A 2016 Cubs 2-fer, incoming:

war2d2: While I appreciate that Schwarber gets the plaudits because, as you said, he’s just an incredibly fun player to root for, Willson Contreras will almost certainly finish his career with more “statistical accomplishments” than anyone from the 2016 team. He won’t have a nice round number like 500 HR, but I’m willing to bet he finishes ahead of any of anyone on that team in career WAR. He only needs 7 bWAR to pass Rizzo, and he’s already 10 ahead of Schwarber. Lester only has 43 and I’m guessing Willson finishes around 45 or so.

Jay Jaffe: I tend to agree on that front.

Cromulent: I take it for granted that Theo Epstein will be in the Hall of Fame someday. But what is the usual timeline for considering an executive? Five years removed from a daily role? Kind of seems like Theo should already be in even though he’s got maybe 20 to 30 years left to give, if he wants.

Jay Jaffe: Via the Hall rules: “Executives retired for at least five years. Active executives 70 years or older are eligible for consideration regardless of the position they hold in an organization, and regardless of whether their body of work has been completed.”

Epstein is now six years removed from his last POBO job, but he’s still been peripherally working in baseball, first for the league and now as a minority owner within the Fenway Sports Group. He’s still just 52, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility he could come back to a front office — or, hell, become commissioner, as some have speculated — and with no shortage of other candidates to consider, I don’t see him landing on a ballot for awhile.

Barbaro Garbey: Thanks for the chat Jay. I think this is going to be more of a comment than a question, but I am becoming frustrated with my fellow Tigers fans who are already freaking out that the team either will not trade Skubal, or get (in their view) an insufficient return for him. For me though, even acknowledging the Tigers are in a tough spot vis a vis the playoff chase, I want them to keep Skubal. The whole point of being a fan of a team is to someday have the opportunity to regularly watch a player like Skubal (or Miggy Cabrera, JV, Scherzer, McGonigle, etc.) on your team. Even if the Tigers hold Skubal, miss the playoffs, and let him walk as a free agent, I reject the idea that they got “nothing” for him. In fact, we Tigers fans (and the team) have gotten to watch a great player on a historic run of dominance. On our team. I know that for me, that is not “nothing”…but YMMV

Jay Jaffe: I understand that feeling. it’s not the same thing but a writer for the Denver Post asked me (and Dan Szymborski) to weigh in on the trade outlook for Hunter Goodman. (see https://www.denverpost.com/2026/07/04/rockies-hunter-goodman-trade-yan…) I think it’s a very cynical view of sports fandom to assume that you have to trade your best/fans’ favorite players if you’re not on track for a championship. I think the Tigers (and Rockies) have to listen to offers, and maybe they’ll get one they can’t refuse, but

Jay Jaffe: (whoops)

Jay Jaffe: if they don’t trade him, I don’t think that’s a failure. I also think that trading Skubal vs. holding him and letting him hit free agency is a more definitive slamming of the door on a return. The Tigers have gone big before to retain their top stars, and I expect them to be competitive for Skubal assuming the CBA changes enough to make it more costly for, say, the Dodgers or Mets to try to add him.

Resolution: Re: Arenado’s HOF case – are you inclined to ‘round up’ on guys who missed a year of their prime due to the pandemic?

Jay Jaffe: pandemic, strike, military service — yes, I try to give the benefit of the doubt for those types of career interruptions.

drplantwrench: Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register pitcher a three team deal between the Dodgers, Angels, and Tigers where each team gets:

Dodgers: Skubal
Tigers: One of Soriano/Detmers, a Dodgers prospect
Angels: 3-4 Dodgers top prospects

What’s your gut reaction to it?

Jay Jaffe: obviously “top prospect” is a loose definition but I don’t see the Dodgers giving up that much for a 2-month rental. A 4-5 player sack of prospects is gonna include some live arms in A-ball who don’t score as 50-FVs, for example.

Jeremy Fox: Starting to look like Bryce Harper’s decline phase as a hitter started last year, though so far it’s a gentle decline. And somewhat to my surprise, he seems to have become quite a poor first baseman. He also hasn’t played a full season since 2019 (though he was on track to do so in 2020 for what it’s worth) Does a gentle extended decline phase at the plate with bad 1B defense, playing 3/4-ish seasons, get him to the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: I think Harper’s probably Hall bound, yes. His is the case Schwarber’s proponents wish their guy had, with 2 MVP awards (plus a ROY), more than double the number of All-Star appearances thus far (9 to 4), some defensive value, and a strong postseason resumé even if he doesn’t have a ring.

Eshan Mehere: are stantons chances at the hof p much cooked now

Jay Jaffe: They sure aren’t improving with another mostly-lost season, but last year’s bounceback kept the door ajar (to choose a different metaphor from yours, which was hardly off base).

Phillip Denny: On the ROS projection point – at what point in the season does a current win percentage become more predictive than a pre-season projection win percentage? For example, the Mets are still projected for .539 ROS W% whereas the White Sox are at .455 (under the Angels!).

Jay Jaffe: I’m pretty sure this is a pitch in the wheelhouses of either Dan Szymborski or Ben Clemens — i don’t know the answer offhand

war2d2: In response to Barbero’s comment about trading Skubal, this is a big reason I’ll always prefer a Dombrowski to an Eric Neander type. Yeah, you wind up with the boom-bust cycle with Dombo, but when he puts a team together you know you’re going to be rooting for that core group for the full duration of the competitive window vs. jettisoning players every time they get into their second arb year. I don’t mean to pick on Neander, he does a good job with what ownership grants him. So I suppose I should say I prefer a Mike Ilitch/John Middleton owner to the Rays alternative.

Jay Jaffe: I agree, but I don’t think you can completely detach the characterizations of those ownerships from their teams’ financial standing. Not that the Tampa-St. Pete area is a smol bean, either; it’s still 17th in the Metropolitan Statistical Area rankings where Philadelphia is 9th and Detroit 14th, but expansion and the ongoing ballpark situation has long left the Rays on a different footing that has influenced their approach to team-building.

Alex Remington: I’m deeply, deeply worried that Acuña’s injuries are downgrading the arc of his career in front of our eyes, and that it could go from something like Vlad Guerrero Sr. to something like Eric Davis – extraordinary all the same, but, as Aaron Boone inartfully said of Giancarlo Stanton, perhaps injuries are part of his game. Your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: Acuña is still young enough (28) that I wouldn’t given up hope on him completely yet but from a Hall standpoint he’s now in his 9th season and has a 28.6-bWAR seven-year peak and just two seasons above 5.0 WAR. I think the point when he becomes a regular DH can’t be that far off given his ongoing leg issues.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, my Ohtani piece is live https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dodgers-have-hit-pause-on-shohei-ohtan…

Jay Jaffe: And it’s time for me to pack it in for the day. Thanks so much for stopping by. We’ll do this again soon!