Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/23/21

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks! Welcome to another edition of my chat, this one falling on the same day as my father’s 80th birthday. I’ve just completed my annual Replacement Level Killers series, the last installment of which — center fielder and DHs — went up just a couple of hours ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2021-replacement-level-killers-center-…

Jay Jaffe: I briefly addressed the Rays’ Nelson Cruz acquisition therein, but here’s Dan Szymborski’s writeup, freshly minted for your enjoyment https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tampa-bay-obtains-a-cruz-missile/

Jay Jaffe: Not sure how soon we’ll have analysis of the Mets trading for Rich Hill —  I mean, Dick Mountain — but soon enough.

JD: Will Gallo be traded?

Jay Jaffe: I think so. He’s having an excellent season, making his 2nd All-Star team, comes with a year of club control so the return will be strogner, and he’s versatile enough to fit any team with an OF, 1B, or even DH need.

Jay Jaffe: Still think the Padres and Yankees are the most likely destinations

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Do you expect TB to trade for a starter soon after the Hill deal?

Jay Jaffe: I imagine they’ll pick up some pitching but I know they expect Chris Archer back soon, and Luis Patiño just made his first start back from Triple-A

WhyKenleyWhy: Would you trust Kenley in the closer spot if the Dodgers make it to the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe: Right now, no, not after 3 straight blown saves, but he had just thrown 14 straight scoreless innings before this bad run. I do think the Dodgers need to fortify their bullpen with another late-inning arm but I don’t know that he needs to be a closer — they can try Blake Treinen for the ninth, or maybe Corey Knebel if he comes back strong

Joshua: If the Nats become sellers, what type of returns could you see them getting for their two impending free agent relievers, Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson? Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: based on last year, the going rate seems to be about two PTBNL, low-level guys you probably haven’t heard of and might not hear of again for at least a couple years, if at all.

Michael Ortman: The Cleveland Guardians? Pretty generic compared to so many other options.

Jay Jaffe: It is inoffensive, so it’s a vast improvement on the racist name and grotesque caricature that it replaces.  It apparently has a lot of local significance based on the Guardians of Traffic statues on the Hope Memorial Bridge near the ballpark — those are quite attractive, I’ll admit. I wish they had tweaked the colors because so many teams have red and navy, and I’ll forever think they should have reclaimed the Spiders name, but I don’t hate this.

FriarFan: Happy 80th to your dad! On Gallo to the Padres, if you were GM for a day, how would you fit him into the lineup/defense? How do you think the Padres will?

Jay Jaffe: What makes the most sense to me would be to put Gallo in RF, Wil Myers at 1B (where he played regularly in 2016-17) because he’s never been a very good outfielder, and leave Eric Hosmer by the roadside with a note attached. From what i read last week, I think they could even go more direct by using Gallo at 1B

Ryan: Machado should finish up his age 28 season with about 46 Bwar. What number do you think gets him into the hall. Does he have to get to 70 or 75 to consider him a lock?

Jay Jaffe: 70 is pretty much a lock. The only players who have at least 70, are currently eligible for election, and don’t have any PED links are Bill Dahlen, Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and Scott Rolen, with Carlos Beltran (2023) and Adrian Beltre (2024) on deck.

Michael Ortman: If Gallo comes to the Padres, are they banking on him being the DH next year?

Jay Jaffe: No, he’s a plus fielder with a fantastic arm, and even won a Gold Glove last year (which was all metrics-based). He’s not their DH.

Twins Fan: What’s your take/reaction to the Cruz trade?

Jay Jaffe: it’s right there in the RLK article, at least with regards to its fit for the Rays. Sounds like the cost in prospects was high but if you’re going to get a DH bat, you’ve got the best one there is this side of Ohtani.

Brad Lipton: I didn’t follow the narrative last night, but was Chapman not available?

Jay Jaffe: I wasn’t following closely but Chapman had worked two days in a row, and so I think Boone wanted to avoid him

Brad Lipton: Did you know (before recently) that there was a guy who won speed skating metals at the Olympics AND played MLB?

Jay Jaffe: Yes. Wrote about Eddy Alvarez last year, during the Marlins’ outbreak. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/despite-outbreak-marlins-skate-to-the-top-…

Steven: Okay, I’m starting to get worried, can you give me any reasons to hold out hope for Bellinger?

Jay Jaffe: He’s young and outstandingly athletic and probably hasn’t entirely forgotten how to hit a baseball very far. But he’s pretty damm lost right now, and I imagine he might not be fully comfortable with his lower half mechanics in the wake of multiple leg injuries.

Syndergaardengnomes: What makes Guardians such a poor choice for a franchise name is obvious…  Three syllables doesn’t work unless it can be easily shortened, ie, Cards, Nats…

Jay Jaffe: Guards.

Bart: Please rank R Hill ROS

Jay Jaffe: Peak Dick Mountain

Sox Fan: From listening to Chicago radio it seems like the main motivation for Yermin Mercedes “retirement” was frustration at his recent demotion and being passed over for promotion by Seby Zavala after Grandal’s recent injury. Do you think he has a legitimate case for being angry at his not being on the White Sox active roster?

Jay Jaffe: Prior to his demotion he had just two innings of regular season catching since September 1, 2019, so it’s not like the Sox viewed him as much more than an emergency option, and his bat had pretty much died after that hot start. Sending him down to find his stroke and get reps behind the plate isn’t unreasonable, but I do wonder if the lines of communication were as clear as they needed to be.

Calvin Coolidge: I have asked this question to other FG writers, but curious to get your take: are there any players (past or present) who have exerted a stronger influence on the game as it exists today than Scott boras? (FWIW Jackie and Clemente are on my list)

Jay Jaffe: saw this q towards the end of last week’s chat. I think it’s very tough to compare on vs. off field impacts. Boras has had a strong influence but not as strong as Marvin Miller, for example, or Branch Rickey, and maybe not as strong as Bill James and his analytical progeny. On the field, the most obvious names to include with Robinson and Clemente are Ruth and Curt Flood.

Mike: Is Eugenio Suarez done?

Jay Jaffe: He is a mess but I find it hard to believe a guy who’s 30 and ostensibly healthy is done.

me: do the Astros upgrade CF?

Jay Jaffe: There’s not a lot out there and Myles Straw has exceeded expectations with his 95 wRC+ and 1.9 WAR, so if they do something about CF, it will be pretty modest I think

Broken Bat: Give me your #1 Ctching Pros

Jay Jaffe: my #1 catching prospect is the same as everyone else’s: Adley Rutschman, our #2 prospect coming into the year and probably #1 once Wander loses his rookie status.

Steve: How aware are teams of vax status of players on other clubs? To put it another way, would this type of knowledge make team A hesitate to trade for player B, especially if team A is already above 85%?

Jay Jaffe: i’m pretty sure that kind of information would be part of a player’s medical file if a team wanted to go beyond the informals of discussing trade possibilities. It might very well be a consideration in some cases this year.

Broken Bat: give me your #1 Catching prospect that you want for your 2023 season and beyond.

Jay Jaffe: ah this was the full question and the answer is still the same. Not a lot of reason for me to deviate from the consensus here

bob: The worst thing about the Guardians is the colors.  Teams that are not already grandfathered in should be prohibited from using red or navy.  Too many do it!  Three cheers for the Orioles, Padres, Marlins, Rockies, ChiSox, A’s and Pirates!

Jay Jaffe: they were already using those colors, basically.

Michael: Thoughts on Kyle Tucker? He’s having a great 131 wRC+, 5 OAA, .400+ xwOBA season, but I feel like he’s not getting enough love because he’s in Houston. Do you think he’s legit, and can he maintain his success and become a superstar?

Jay Jaffe: he’s legit, and he’s #23 on our Trade Value list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-21-to-30/

Jay Jaffe: he’s got a multi All-Star future, i think. Doubt he’ll be as popular beyond Houston as Altuve and Correa were, pre-scandal, because that’s very tough to do and right now nobody’s looking for likable Astros

Jimbo Richards: Moncada production numbers are giving off a sort of Eric Hosmer vibe this season. He has a great eye, and good defense, but his power isn’t steady yet, or am I just overthinking this.

Jay Jaffe: He’s got a 136 wRC+ and 3.3 WAR, the second time he’s topped 130 and 3.0, and he’s only 26. Hosmer has exactly one season at that level, and it was his walk year. Moncada’s down years have been 1.6 and 2.0 WAR. Hosmer has been below zero 3x in the last 4 years. Not even remotely comparable

Jay Jaffe: More power from Moncada would be nice but don’t dismiss the fact that he’s a damn good player.

Joshua: Victor Robles and Brad Hand to the Blue Jays for…….? Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: “… what reason?”

Jay Jaffe: the Blue Jays need bullpen help, but I don’t see them as needing to pay the acquisition cost of a young, club-controlled center fielder. Springer is back, they’ve got a young team around him with players who are way better than Robles.

Farhandrew Zaidman: The Dodgers clearly are looking for pitching help at the deadline. But what is more critical for them to pick up, a starter or a reliever?

Jay Jaffe: Yes.

Jay Jaffe: It’s not either/or.

Jay Jaffe: and I believe they’ll get both.

FriarFan: How are the Giants what they are? Even great teams hit skids and bumps, and they weren’t even supposed to be great, and yet here we are. Should I stop waiting for them to come back down to Earth?

Jay Jaffe: their bullpen is vulnerable, but then so is the Dodgers’. At this point, the Giants should be taken seriously as contenders. My big concern with them is all of the olds staying healthy and productive through the end of the season, and we’ve seen Posey, Belt, Crawford, and Longoria all hit the IL — sometimes for fluky reasons, but that doesn’t make recovering form any easier.

adambulldog: What do you think of Marc Feinsand’s prorosed trade: Rockies send Gray and Story to the Yankees in exchange for Abreu and Peraza?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know a ton about the prospects beyond Abreu being a 35+ FV guy and Peraza a 50 FV guy who’s their #3 overall and who’s hitting in Double-A. Trading him is going to sting but I think the Yankees are backed into a situation where they have to go big, and if they can be reassured that Gray and Story are both healthy — each has had his issues — I’d probably do it

Farhandrew Zaidman: Should the Reds consider trading Castellanos? Seems likely he’ll exercise the opt out after this year and the Reds don’t have an obvious path to the playoffs.

Jay Jaffe: well, he’s got a microfracture in his right wrist that will keep him out a couple of weeks and add to the risk of dealing him. I’ve criticized the Reds for not being aggressive enough; I think they’re better off holding onto him, shoring up the right side of their infield, and trying to retain him if he opts out

The Old Professor: Is Aroldis Chapman broken?.. are his days as a top flight closer numbered?

Jay Jaffe: He’s a bit of a mess, as I wrote a few weeks ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aroldis-chapmans-nosedive-is-dragging-the-…

Jay Jaffe: the guy can still throw 100 and has developed a good 3rd pitch (the splitter), but I think it’s his mechanics that are off right now. Seems fixable.

Ed Stettinius: If NYY acquires Story and moves Torres to 2B, any chance this will significantly improve the infield defense?

Jay Jaffe: it will improve the defense massively. the two are 10 runs apart in DRS this year, and 25 over the last two seasons, with less than a full season’s complement of innings.

Jake Leroux: If you’re the Red Sox, what kind of production can you reasonably expect from Sale coming back from the IL?

Jay Jaffe: maybe 50 innings, 5 at a time, a bit wobbly at first but gaining strength and very useful in the postseason.

Joshua: Does Josh Harrison have any trade value above maybe a PTBNL? Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: now that he’s returned to the land of the competent hitters, yes, but probably a PTBNL-level guy or two

WinTwins0410: Jay, why didn’t Rafael Palmeiro get more love from HoF voters compared to Sammy Sosa and Manny Ramirez? Palmeiro’s WAR is much higher than Sammy Sosa’s and Manny’s (and his JAWS is above the average HOF 1B), and he obviously cleared 3,000 hits and mashed 569 homers. Trying to compare writers’ voting behavior for known and assumed juicers is probably a futile exercise, but still — Raffy fell off the ballot after just a couple years, while Manny and Sosa have continued to knock around the bottom half of the ballot. Your thoughts? I’m trying to figure out what the difference is on the part of the writers/voters. I assume some (all?) of it is punishment for his (dishonest) finger-wagging denial?  (Plus the fact that Palmeiro actually tested positive, whereas Sosa never actually did. Manny did, though!)

Jay Jaffe: Two things regarding Palmeiro: he had the milestones but was never viewed as the type of superstar as Manny or Sosa were. Never led the league in anything significant. Plus he was the first guy to get caught, and it was red-handed, with a positive test and suspension instead of the murk of pre-survey infractions.

Jay Jaffe: He was unlucky because the positive test was a very easy line to draw

JD: Would SD part with one of their top 4 prospects for Gallo? If not, what about if Tex took the Hosmer contract?

Jay Jaffe: I’m sure SD will have to part with at least one key prospect if they land Gallo, but they apparently (and understandably) weren’t willing to part with Abrams and (or?) Campusano last summer when the two teams explored a deal. Maybe that changes if TEX takes on some amount of Hosmer’s deal but I genuinely don’t know.

Dan Grat: Did the Rays sell low when trading Hill to the Mets? Tommy Hunter is on the IL and Matt Dyer isn’t MLB-ready yet.

Jay Jaffe: It feels a bit low, yeah. But Matt Dyer not being MLB-ready isn’t a bad thing; teams deal for low-level guys all the time. I don’t have a great sense of what the prospect hounds think of him but he was a 4th round pick and obviously something about him stuck out to TB’s scouts and FO..

I got a bit of a sense from watching a few outings that despite Hill being on a short leash in LA previously, he didn’t like the way he was used in Tampa Bay any more than Snell did.

Guest: What do you think about Cards trading fro Joey Bart? they reportably had scouts at Giants org and need a young catcher. Would Edman, Gallegos and Kizner do it ?

Jay Jaffe: The Giants need a young catcher, too, maybe not today but soon, and Knizner ain’t it.

Jay Jaffe: and Edman has really stagnated.

Max Muncy: Does he have a shot at NL MVP? He doesn’t get the hype Tatis does but they’re neck and neck in both bWAR and fWAR

Jay Jaffe: I think Muncy’s comparative lack of flash and peoples’ lack of faith in defensive metrics — which show him to be sneaky excellent (+10 DRS) and Tatis to be meh (-5 DRS) would make a Maximum MVP an unlikelihood

Jay Giraffe: How worried should I be about Bellinger and his HoF chances after these past two wasted seasons………

Jay Jaffe: We’re a long way from talking HOF regarding Bellinger

Bad Bill: Ref. the Bart to STL trade: isn’t Ivan Herrera knocking on the catcher door for St. Louis?  Why trade for someone who’s not an obvious improvement and is years older?

Jay Jaffe: there’s that too.

HappyFunBall: Dyer is 40-man safe (TB needs those) and Patino switches right in to Hill’s spot for now with Archer coming back soon.  This is just TB doing what they do to shuffle pieces around because they can.

Jay Jaffe: more or less along the lines of what i noted with the additional point about the 40

45 lost bigly: Hiura and Robles are broken beyond repair….right?

Jay Jaffe: Hiura yikes, i don’t know what’s going on there.

Jay Jaffe: I mean, I looked, as have my colleagues, and still, just a disappointment.

Who Me: Who gets Starling and what do the Marlins get in return?

Jay Jaffe: I keep hearing Giants, or maybe Yankees. Offhand, i don’t know what the return looks like but he’s on an expiring contract so I think we’re talking talking maybe a 51-100 prospect plus something else

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, I can only calibrate so many trade packages, and I’ve got an upcoming spot to record, so I’ll hit it for now. Thanks for stopping by. My regularly scheduled chat will not take place next week due to the trade deadline, but we might have a group chat going on at some point on deadline day.