Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/28/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! I’m back from my Induction Weekend trip to Cooperstown, with my final chat before the August 3 trade deadline.

Jay Jaffe: My writeup of Sunday’s induction ceremony and  the weekend’s other festivities is in the editorial pipeline. Compared to last year, this was a subdued weekend. Jeff Kent (who gave the best of the three speeches), Carlos Beltrán, and Andruw Jones just don’t have the universal appeal of Ichiro Suzuki — who does? — at least not enough to compel as many people to travel to Cooperstown in high season. Last year an estimated 30,000 people were at induction day, compared to 12,000 — a number that looks very inflated to these eyes but it’s what was officially reported — this year.

Matt: How many times have you been to Cooperstown and what’s your favorite restaurant there? Partial to breakfast at the Doubleday Cafe myself

Jay Jaffe: I think this was my 14th trip to Cooperstown, and this is the first calendar year I’ve made it twice. I first went in 2000, via a spur-of-the-moment detour on an upstate trip suggested by my then-girlfriend (bless her wherever she is), then in 2003, and annually from ’16–25 plus twice this year. I was supposed to go twice in 2020, but after a February Hot Stove Weekend fundraiser for the Friends of Doubleday Field, the pandemic scrubbed that year’s induction ceremonies.

Jay Jaffe: I honestly don’t eat particularly well when I’m in C’town except at the home of my hosts, former Cooperstown mayor Jeff Katz and his wife Karen. I do like the burgers at Doubleday Cafe but they’re not as good as the ones at the tiny Cooperstown Diner across the street. Spurbeck’s Grocery has very good sandwiches but they’re not open on weekends, and Danny’s, which was once my weekend-sandwich-of-choice spot, is under new management and was dealing only pre-made Sandwiches of Sadness this weekend. I did have a couple of excellent meals at Mel’s at 22, which is a somewhat elevated menu and probably my top recommendation.

BuccoFan: Hi Jay – if you had to bet, who do you think gets the 3rd NLWC spot?

Jay Jaffe: Our Playoff Odds have the Pirates there (47.4%) and I’m reasonably optimistic about them, provided they don’t sit on their hands at the deadline. The other team I’d keep an eye on is the Padres, who for all of their recent problems do seem to be able to remake their rosters at the deadline every year

drplantwrench: over/under angels trade 2.5 players this deadline – which are you taking?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll take the over. They’ll trade Adell because the market for right-handed hitters is so weak, probably either Detmers or Soriano, and I bet somebody like Yates — plus perhaps some minor leaguers to help facilitate larger swaps.

12 to six: i hesitate to say this for fear of putting bad juju into the world, but passan’s momentary mention raised my antenna. however: given tibbs and sirota (and ward) all look close to, if not fully, ready, and teo’s defensive rep, would teo and a bit of cash (if needed) for lagrange and, say, sean duncan from the yanks be crazy? sirota in lf right now, particularly with kiké coming back, looks logical and would be a defensive improvement right off the jump.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t be surprised if Teoscar Hernández ends up being traded if the Dodgers are willing to eat a lot of his remaining contract (he’s signed through 2027) but even given how stocked they are with near-ready outfielders I hesitate to suggest they’re going to put all their eggs into a basket with an untested rookie. More likely they’d find a stopgap, maybe an upgrade on Call (whose boneheaded ABS challenges a few weeks ago still loom large).

Jay Jaffe: another scenario: Kiké (please remember to use that accent if your’e not going with Enrique, which is our site style) could very well figure in a LF platoon with Hyeseong Kim if Teoscar gets traded.

Viva Montenegro: Beltran seemed to take a more belligerent stance in defending his role in the 2017 cheating scandal. He seems to remain respected by both media and baseball alums. Do you think that if some of the guys associated with PEDs had taken a similar tact with their own cases (as opposed to silence or ambiguous contrition), they would be treated differently now? Or are PEDs and advanced sign stealing just not comparable?

Jay Jaffe: I think the complexities of the sign-stealing scandal, and the fact that he was the lone active player identified, sets his case apart from the PED guys. I think they — Bonds et al — would have been better off trying to take a more conciliatory stance with regards to their own actions. “I felt pressure to keep up, I made mistakes that at the time I viewed as falling along the continuum of what players did to be their best, like greenies…” etc.

war2d2: I still have a hard time believing that Kent made it. I realize the choice of who gets to be on the committee list is opaque, but the fact that he got on there (and was voted in!) and Lou Whittaker didn’t is still just mind boggling to me.

Jay Jaffe: Honestly, I don’t think the election of Kent should be shocking at all. “Most home runs by a second baseman” is an easy elevator pitch that could have been engineered to appeal to an Era Committee voter.

Jay Jaffe: Kent is 22nd in JAWS among second basemen, lower than the 11 BBWAA-elected guys. But he’s ahead of 7 of the other 9 committee choices.

Jay Jaffe: What makes him stand out like a sore thumb isn’t his ranking there or vis-à-vis the absence of Whitaker, who doesn’t have as easy a hook, it’s in relation to Bonds

drplantwrench: one name you didnt mention on the angels is zach neto.  do you think a neto for Arias deal with boston is feasible? or does he not get traded at all?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s possible the Angels trade Neto but it’s a longer shot because he’s one of the most valuable trade chips they have. They should feel as though they need to be bowled over to move him because he’s so young and inexpensive, with three years of control remaining.

Nickname (required): Who returns a better prospect package for the Cardinals: Noot, O’Brien, or May?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see the Cardinals as far enough outside the playoff picture that they’re going to blow up their roster. May’s value is down because he’s scuffled lately — a pending free agent like that isn’t going to bring back a package so much as a take-a-flier guy.

O’Brien, the closer, may be the exception, because they can deal him as a club control guy, then shuffle through internal options or land somebody who is functionally equivalent but may be a pending FA.

TKDC: With Curaçao now crossed off the list, what’s the next country to have its first hall of famer?

Jay Jaffe: Ooh, I’d have to think about that one. South Korea doesn’t have anybody imminent. Neither does Mexico, which has produced hundreds of players yet somehow nobody who’s landed in Cooperstown (I think career bWAR leader Fernando Valenzuela is more likely to get the Buck O’Neil Award than full election). Aruba has Xander Bogaerts, who has 43 bWAR but is in decline.

Jay Jaffe: Here’s a good place to start: https://www.baseball-reference.com/bio/country_bat.shtml If anyone has better ideas, let me know

war2d2: Cubs are playing very well, and make me wonder what they could have looked like with a healthy Horton and Brown at the top of the rotation. They clearly don’t have the horses to make it through the playoffs right now (looking at you, game 1 pitcher Shota Imanaga). Hoyer isn’t one for making big trades that mortgage some or all of the future, especially when it’s unlikely they’ll catch the Brewers. That said, what second-tier starters do you think will be moved? Seems like Detmers and Soriano on the Angels are moving, Robbie Ray is almost certainly moving, and probably Sandy on the Marlins. Have to say that’s an uninspiring group, given current performance.

Jay Jaffe: The Mets’ Freddy Peralta has been pretty uninspiring but may be fine with a change of scenery. Luis Castillo or Emerson Hancock appear likely to be dealt by the Mariners. The Royals’ Michael Wacha seems like a guy who might move.

war2d2: I guess the thing about Kent that rankles me most is that his one claim to fame, the HR at 2B record, almost certainly wouldn’t have happened if Sandberg hadn’t had his career cut short by a broken wrist, a public spat with Larry Himes (Cubs’ GM), and a messy divorce. That’s been bugging me for 30 years, and this just opens the wound back up.

Jay Jaffe: Sandberg made his choice and things played out as they did. Kent surpassed him in home runs in part because he played in a higher-scoring era, but he also helped more teams to the playoffs and won an MVP award (albeit a very RBI-fueled one). it’s not THAT hard to understand his election.

Viva Montenegro: A couple weeks ago you could’ve argued the Marlins were in a rare position to buy at the deadline. Now, not so much… and it feels like they don’t really have all that much to sell. What would you do if you were running that team?

Jay Jaffe: I still think it’s worth putting patches on 3B and DH and going for a playoff spot because they’re hardly out of it. Trading guys and white-flagging it isn’t going to win them fans

MF Luder: Do you expect the Mets to make any trades beyond Peralta and bullpen pieces?

Jay Jaffe: I think they’ll move Luis Robert Jr., and it wouldn’t surprise me if they deal Bo Bichette, who has a full no-trade clause and a player opt out and who is finally showing signs of heating up.

hyphenkee: Now that we’re a few years in, do you get the sense that teams highly value being in the hunt for the 3rd WC spot? Right now there are ~13 teams either in the WC or in the hunt. That’s exciting, but do teams secretly care a little less than we think about squeaking into that last spot?

Jay Jaffe: I think so because we tend to see a lot of wait-and-see behavior at the deadline from those teams — not the kind of trades that can be game-changers.

Charles Bengal Tiger: Is there a decent chance that Kevin Brown and/or Rick Reuschel eventually make the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t hold my breath. Brown’s one-and-done BBWAA performance and appearance on the Mitchell Report list probably makes him a dead letter in any consideration for ballot space.  Reuschel doesn’t have much “fame” attached and it’s not like the Era Committee ballots are being stocked with stathead favorites.

The bottom line is that for as much coverage as we give regarding the injustices of one-and-done guys not getting a second look, we can still only point to one success story there, Ted Simmons.

Viva Montenegro: Didier Fuentes from Colombia, Hall of Fame Induction 2055. Book those tickets now!

Jay Jaffe: You heard it here first, folks! I hope I live to see that (I’d be 86 years old that year).

mike sixel: Royce Lewis for Luis Arraez, who says no? Also, super happy you get to go do a thing you love every year!

Jay Jaffe: Thanks! Right now I’m not sure teams are that keen on Lewis, who’s been terrible this year except for June, hasn’t hit for a 100 wRC+ since 2024, and still has never played more than 106 games in a season. The Giants would probably say no because they can do better in dealing Arraez.

MF Luder: With Tolle and Bennett (Early was also in this category) already surpassing their career highs in innings pitched, contrary to Red Sox fan logic, I’d like them to go get an overqualified innings-eating starter as a rental. Do you see that as likely?

Jay Jaffe: it’s plausible but to these eyes, the Early trade suggests they already see Patrick Sandoval, who recently returned from TJ, as that guy

krob4385: Bocca Osteria in Cooperstown is a solid restaurant. Would go back for sure.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve never been but it looks decent.

jkgaucho: Trade value highlighted best values.  Who has the worst contract? Vlad Jr.? Boegarts?

Jay Jaffe: Vladito, I’m afraid. It’s the 2nd-largest in the game, it was given to a guy who has only intermittently played up to superstar status and who already has some physical concerns, and it runs through 2039, the year before time as we know it will cease to exist.

Phil: So, ignoring guys like Grich who are the committees’ problem, do you think the election of Andruw Jones opens things up for even more of a defense-first guy via the BBWAA? I guess you’ve been pushing for that with catchers, but I’m imagining more of an ideal-aging-curve version of Rafaela. I guess Andrelton Simmons could have been an interesting test case with a longer career also.

Jay Jaffe: I just don’t think there are that many likely defense-first candidates who can get that far. Even with the Gold Gloves, Jones was helped by hitting 400+ homers and being on a perennial playoff team. Rafaela hasn’t produced anything eye-catching enough on offense to help his case along, and the Red Sox seem to be in a boom-and-bust cycle of contending

Jay Jaffe: It’s far more likely we see guys like Chase Utley, Nolan Arenado and maybe Matt Chapman if he proves to have the staying power follow in the footsteps of Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, and Todd Helton — guys whose lower counting stats are offset by significant defensive value and recognition. Jones fits into that group pretty well, too.

drewsylvania: Speaking of the Hall, Papelbon got snubbed, at least from additional consideration

Jay Jaffe: it turns out trying to choke a superstar in your dugout is viewed as disqualifying for some.

krob4385: Do you think Keith Hernandez eventually gets into the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve never understood why he can’t get Era Committee placement. he’s not a one-and-done guy, he fits into the Walker/Helton/Rolen/Jones/Utley group, and he’s got the long tail as a broadcaster which — if that was supposed to be something that pushed Kaat over the line (which seems dubious) — should only help his cause.

Jay Jaffe: I would vote for Hernandez.

Mark Falzone: To MF Luder’s point, I was wondering if Bello is that innings eater, with Sandoval now one of the 5 healthy starting pitchers

Jay Jaffe: Bello seems to need an opener too often to make him a guy viewed as an innings-eater. His spot on the roster is tenuous given that he has options remaining and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him dealt, with the Red Sox eating salary.

MF Luder: In the last two decades, has there been a more criminal non-trade than the Angels not moving Mike Trout?

Jay Jaffe: It’s tough to think of another example that extreme but not being dealt is in accordance with his wishe, and the Angels — as poorly run a franchise as there’s been in the past decade — hasn’t pressed the matter any further.

cosmichero: Earlier in the season the Nats had the most runs scored but the underlying stuff had them more like the 5th best offense in the MLB. Instead of regressing, they’ve gone nuclear in july and now the underlying stuff also has them as the best in the MLB. I don’t have a question, but this is just crazy to me that it’s happening

Jay Jaffe: Who knew that stockpiling young hitters would pay off? Whatever new hitting coach Matt Borgschulte and his staff are telling these guys, right now it seems to be working.

ED44: Short of a change in ownership, tell me there’s hope in Cincinnati? Surprises me this ownership group/F.O. isn’t getting more heat in public. Bring back #SellTheTeamBob!

Jay Jaffe: Feels like the one thing they’ve done well, which has kept them relevant in recent years, was to put together solid rotations, but this year’s model has fallen part except for Abbott and Burns. Their farm system is currently 27th in the rankings. Things look grim

war2d2: If Trout was willing to be moved this week, what would that even look like? He’s got another 4 years at $37m after this one. Assuming the Angels are rational actors (big assumption) how would they handle it? Pay it down and try to get real prospects, or treat it as a pure money dump? If the latter, who even picks it up? NYY? Phils? Dodgers? They all have cash, but that seems like a lot to swallow for the decline years of a guy who, at this point, looks like a 4-WAR true-talent.

Jay Jaffe: 4-WAR true talent is still going to wind up better than most players dealt at the upcoming deadline. The Phillies kinda seem like the only plausible destination for him, and the Angels would probably need to pay down his deal by at least 50% and maybe take on a smaller bad-money deal in order to get something legitimate back in terms of prospects or club-control players.

war2d2: MLBTR reporting that the Fish have taken Sandy off the table, so I guess he’s not moving unless they get blown away by the offer.

Jay Jaffe: Doesn’t surprise me. He’s been pretty good in every month but May, with ERAs of 3.35 or lower and FIPs of 4.33 or lower; it’s May’s 7+ ERA and 5+ FIP that’s blowing up his overall numbers.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, it’s time for me to skedaddle. My Hall of Fame weekend thing will be live at 2 pm — look for it! Thanks for stopping by and if there’s anything left of me the day after the trade deadline, I should be back here.