Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/18/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. I’m just back from a trip to Salt Lake City to celebrate my father’s 85th birthday and the upcoming birthdays of my daughter and niece. While in transit, I learned that Tommy John had passed away. My tribute to him just went live moments ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tommy-john-1943-2026-crafty-lefty-and-firs…

David: If you could populate the Hall of Fame with the same number of players, would there would be a 90% overlap with those who are actually enshrined? Or do you think the writers and others who have voted over the years got it right more often than 90% of the time – or less?

Jay Jaffe: Not sure about 90%, but maybe 75%. I’d put in more Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball players and strip out some of the 1930s guys who rode the Frisch/Terry Express. More starting pitchers from the 1980s to 2000s. More figures whose influence went beyond the numbers, including John Donaldson, Lefty O’Doul, Fernando Valenzuela, and yes, Tommy John (and Dr. Frank Jobe).

doink000: I don’t understand why Webb wasn’t more seriously talked about in terms of potentially being on the move. I know he got the coveted “Buster Posey Assurance,” but best case scenario is this time will be on the up and up by 2028/2029 and Webb isn’t getting any younger/more durable. As a potential number 1, top shelf number 2 on a reasonable contract, seems like he would’ve landed a pretty decent prospects haul. Or, could’ve packaged him with a salary dump like Adames and still could’ve gotten good value.

Jay Jaffe: I think some of it comes down to a perception and public relations. “Let’s get rid of these expensive acquisitions that were mistakes to acquire (Devers, Adames) and keep the homegrown guys we’ve nurtured (Webb) and that the fan base has grown to love.”

Jay Jaffe: But you’re right in that Webb has more trade value than a contract that is underwater or bordering on it

Phil: Does Sonny Gray count as short? And if so, is he the best short pitcher since the dead ball era? (I saw a stat that he has the most strikeout since Tim Keefe for any pitcher 5’10” or shorter.) And finally, is that even a thing? (I am somewhat embarrased even to be asking this question given that he’s taller tham me, but oh well.)

Jay Jaffe: Gray is listed at 5-foot-10, and that’s more likely to be accurate in this day of ABS, but Pedro Martinez was listed at 5-foot-11 at a time when heights were subject to exaggeration. And that comparison ain’t even a fair fight

Jay Jaffe: Whitey Ford was listed at 5-foot-10, as was Billy Pierce, both of whom have at least 17 bWAR more than Gray

elfpants: Is the Phillies’ post-Arraez defensive shuffle genius or the wild flailings of a fantasy baseball manager who’s desperately scanning the positional eligibility charts, and in the end will it matter?

Jay Jaffe: So far it seems to have helped, but separating correlation from causation on the basis of 13 games is a fool’s errand. I will point out that the Phillies have allowed the majors’ HIGHEST BABIP since August 4 (.321), and that’s six points higher than their full-season mark, but they’ve done better with fielding-independent outcomes. They’ve also hit for a 112 wRC+ since the deadline

Harry Arrieta: Last night PCA became the 7th player ever to bookend a game with homers. This season he has: tripled his career walk rate, had a 3-war month, posted 6.5 war in a 65 game stretch, set the career record for 5-star catches in less than 400 games, posted another 30/30 season, is practically lapping the war field since May 1, hit for the cycle. Yet no writer has given him his flowers/article. What gives?

Jay Jaffe: He was #3 in our Trade Value series just a couple weeks ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-trade-value-nos-1-10/, and he’s having an MVP caliber season. I’ve been thinking of doing something on him soon, because I agree he deserves a closer look

BuccoFan: Hi Jay – what do you think is going on with Paul Skenes? Fatigue? Mechanics? Underlying injury?

Jay Jaffe: It looks like batters are doing much better against his sinker, splitter, and changeup, so it may be a familiarity thing. He’s giving up more barrels and harder contact, also more fly balls. The pitch-modelng apps say his stuff has regressed. Maybe there’s some fatigue there, maybe it’s the curse of Team USA (see Raleigh, Cal). Doubt it’s an injury because even the Pirates would be careful there if they saw something

shandykoufax: Would you rather be  fan in the AL central (4 below average payrolls, 1 record >.500) or AL West (4 payrolls in top half, 1 record >.500). Or, would you rather face disappointment, or expected meh?

Jay Jaffe: I’m a coastal person and my rooting interests have always reflected that, so I’d go AL West, but in a division that includes Chicago and Detroit, I’m not sure i’d hang my hat on the payroll distinctions being natural outcomes of geography here, if that’s what you’re suggesting

Phillip Denny: Assuming roughly equal offensive output, would you rather have a player also give you elite CF defense and 30+ SB, or 80 IP of a sub 2 ERA?

Jay Jaffe: The CF is going to be far more valuable over the course of a season.

hibbert: I’d add Curt Flood to the list of “beyond the numbers” guys.

Jay Jaffe: Yes, absolutely

Phillip Denny: Kyle Tucker sures seems to have all the hallmarks of the yips. Could you provide a brief review of the famous cases of the yips, and which (if any) players were able to recover?

Jay Jaffe: Guys who come to mind regarding the yips: Steve Blass, Dale Murphy (as a catcher, so probably the best recovery upon switching positions) Steve Sax (strong recovery), Chuck Knoblauch, Mackey Sasser, Jon Lester, Daniel Bard, Tyler Matzek, Jarred Saltalamacchia, Rick Ankiel  (cool mid-career conversion to OF), Mark Wohlers.

Jay Jaffe: The Athletic’s Rustin Dodd recently had a good piece about the yips, and his own battle with them. Gift link https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7499515/2026/08/13/sports-yips-perfor…

opifijikl: what Do you think of the trade deadline deals made now that a couple weeks have passed? Any sticking out to you?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think 2 weeks is much time to judge a trade. Even the Arraez deal mentioned above — the guy is hitting .241/.262/.362, so let’s not get carried away that the move is the cause of a hot streak

Jay Jaffe: The Mets are 10-3 since the deadline, was unloading those pitchers the key to them playing championship-caliber baseball?

bosoxforlife: I recognize you as one of the leading authorities on the Hall of fame. What is your position on players who were very good for a long period while never being considered the best? Tommy John is obviously the point of my question and, IMHO, clearly is a Hall of Famer much like Craig Biggio.

Jay Jaffe: As I wrote in my tribute linked above — and as I’ve said in connection with Hall of Fame elections for a quarter-century now — John’s fitness for the Hall depends upon the subjective credit one wishes to grant him for his pioneering role, because on a performance-only basis, he doesn’t stack up tremendously well, especially within a cohort of pitchers that is VERY well represented in Cooperstown. I don’t think it’s out of bounds at all to grant him that credit, but voters have shown little imagination when it comes to those things.

Jay Jaffe: Biggio is a clear HOFer to me on a performance basis. He’ 15th in JAWS, a few points below the standard, but don’t forget his early career was constrained by the time he spent catching

Jay Jaffe: and that was a remarkably successful transition.

hyphenkee: Is there any tracking of when a player scorches a ball so hard it smacks off the wall and they only get a single? (Oneil Cruz, et al)

Jay Jaffe: We could probably figure out a statcast query where we have the longest singles with the highest exit velocities. Give me a minute or two at Baseball Savant

Jay Jaffe: Singles of at least 300 feet hit at 100 mph or higher: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfAB=single%7C&hfGT=R%7…

Jay Jaffe: Not sure that’s what I expected:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Cruz does have the highest average exit velo of anybody with at least 100 batted ball events (96 mph) but that’s not asking directly about wallbangers.

souldougie: If MLB were to create a Hall of Infamy, who would be some first-ballot inductees?

Jay Jaffe: Cap Anson, Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson and the other banned Black Sox

Jay Jaffe: oh, and Hal Chase

Ragbrai: Nice debut by Baez but since then he looks over matched. Is he going back to AAA to readjust, even though he has nothing to prove there, or do they let him work it out at the major league level since they are not looking like a playoff team? Where do you think he truly is at? DOes he make the OD roster in ’27 and be the star everyone thinks he could be?

Jay Jaffe: He’s 0-for-14 with 6 strikeouts and an HBP since the big 3-homer debut, but he’s absolutely scorching the ball when he makes contact, with an average exit velo on those other BIP of 99.8 mph, with a 75% hard-hit rate. yes, the 22.6% swinging strike rate in that span is worrisome but let’s maybe wait more than three games before passing judgment

Jeremy Fox: Hypothesis: nobody wants competitive balance. Because this year we have it in spades, especially in the AL, and everybody hates it.

Jay Jaffe: Parity is the absolute dullest thing in sports.

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s not so much that nobody wants it but that they don’t really understand what they want

Nick Pollack: JAY! Just wanna say you’re dope and if people haven’t met you in person yet, y’all should find the time to do so. Hope we can grab a beer soon!

Jay Jaffe: aw, if that’s really you, Nick, hit me up! You have my #

viceroy: what would be possible issues with an “IP+” metric that scales a pitchers innings pitched against their relative peers (e.g top 100 pitchers league wide). Some pitchers like Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander have exceeded 250 innings in years when nobody else did, so it feels like they should get more credit in sJAWS than pitchers who went 300 innings while others were going 400+

Jay Jaffe: I think you could do something like BFP/GS+ (batters faced pitching per start, relative to the league average), but it’s not like those extra innings don’t get recognized in S-JAWS — career WAR stays the same.

Jay Jaffe: And S-JAWS is still doing a pretty good job of suppressing the scores of the 19th-century hurlers who piled up so many innings and are more distant analogues to modern day pitchers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-incredible-shrink…

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: That table is from 2022, so I wouldn’t swear every figure reflects recent WAR adjustments but those guys are ancient history

azi mo: Will Albert Belle or Dale Murphy ever make the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: Belle: hell no

Jay Jaffe: nor should he. Christ, what an asshole. Disturbing number of his bad actions were directed at women. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: it wouldn’t surprise me if Murphy gets in some day

drplantwrench: if you could convince Jon Bois to make a documentary similar to his Dave Stieb documentary, who would you get him to cover and why?

Jay Jaffe: Oh man, that Stieb series was so good. I’m a few episodes into his mound-charging one and been meaning to pick that up.

Jay Jaffe: Offhand, i bet he could do a series on the 1980s-90s dark ages Yankees and all of their drama that would be entertaining as hell

dodgerdog: Do you expect Bruce Bochy and Dusty Baker to be elected by this winter’s HOF Era Committee? Would you be surprised to see anyone other than those two?

Jay Jaffe: If both are on the ballot, yes I expect them to be elected. Lou Piniella, who’s been a near-miss twice, might also be on that ballot. but the 8 candidate/3 vote format seems likely to leave somebody on the outside looking in.

daml91: Little reason to think Kyle Schwarber won’t reach 500 HRs at this rate. Will that truly be enough to give the 2016 Cubs their only HOFer?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know if will be enough, and while i think he has a decent shot at 500 (he has 377), I wouldn’t take his continued progress toward that goal for granted.

Jeremy Fox: Are the five best AL teams all in the AL East?

Jay Jaffe: I think you could argue it’s the strongest division but that’s not the same as having the five best teams. The White Sox and Tigers both have higher Pythag and BaseRuns Win% than the Orioles and Blue Jays, for example.

mschroeder: Do you think people are underestimating the baseline growth trajectory for Jackson Chourio? His numbers regressed a bit last season and last season does look similar overall to last couple seasons. But watching basically every game he’s developed noticeably more plate discipline until 2 strikes, still looks like he’ll develop more strength as he physically matures, and he’s only 22 years old. He’s looking a little stiffer running or more reluctant to open it up all the time since his hamstring issues last season, but if he was a 22-year old rookie playing 3-4 WAR over full season with high level streaks, I suspect the hype would still be high.

Jay Jaffe: I tend to agree. We had him 16th in our Trade Value series between Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodríguez, and that’s some pretty serious company.

cyanocitta: Another flavor of this question may have already been asked, but here goes… Considering ZiPS, projected depth charts, and remaining SOS for all involved teams, what are the projected deciles (e.g., 10th through 90th percentiles) for the expected number of wins to claim the final AL Wild Card spot? With seven to eight teams in the thick of the conversation, I see this as an exercise in compounding probabilities and distribution tails—one which is better left to the calculators!

Jay Jaffe: “compounding probabilities and distribution tails” are lyrics to the type of song that Dan Szymborski and Ben Clemens tap their toes to. You’re better off asking either of them than me

Phil: Carl Mays, Hall of Infamy

showbusiness77: Has Giancarlo’s chances for HOF totally cratered after this lost year? Thanks for the chat. How do you feel about fringe Yankees like Pettitte, Posada …. does AROD have any shot by the time he reaches his 10th year? Is Judge already in if he never played another game or we still have a ways to go?

Jay Jaffe: Re: Stanton, I think his odds have taken a big hit even from last year. He’s not even going to approach last year’s totals of 77 games played and 24 homers.

I have voted for Pettitte a couple of times though I think he’s kind of a reach in the context of HOF-caliber pitchers. Posada’s pitch-framing nukes his value to the point where I can’t take his candidacy seriously. A-Rod isn’t going to increase from 40% to 75% over the next five cycles.

war2d2: Jay! What would you do with Edward Cabrera at this point? Granted he’s back on the IL with blisters, but even the early innings of his last start before that cropped up were pretty bad. He has all the hallmarks of a Daniel Cabrera type (last name aside): otherworldly stuff but can’t command it well enough to maintain his value to the team. Reducing him to two pitches and making him a reliever seems like the most obvious thing for the short term, to me.

Jay Jaffe: the stuff is way down this year according to both pitch-modeling systems we use, and I have no real idea why except that it’s tough to pitch when your body won’t cooperate.

Jay Jaffe: I do wonder whether there’s enough deception in his arsenal — if his tunneling is worse than before – but that’s not something i know offhand. I’m just out here asking the questions, man.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, I have a killer headache and think it’s because I desperately need to eat something, so I’m gonna call it here. Thanks so much for stopping by!