Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/22/19

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. Lunch (dumplings) is on the way, my piece on Bo Bichette is in the pipeline [now live], and here’s a GIF of Kermit the Frog and Vincent Price, for no reason at all.  

Ben: Do you think MLB and Rawlings will change the ball this offseason?

Jay Jaffe: I think they’d be foolish not to. For as exciting as home runs are, they’ve got a PR problem on their hands now, and the so-called steroid era taught us that MLB gets very squeamish when the sanctity of home run records is threatened. I doubt they’ll be transparent about it, but I think we’ll see some kind of attempt to return to more normal levels.

Pujols: Do you think I care about round numbers? close to losing my career .300 average. Do I retire before that happens?

Jay Jaffe: No. Maybe if the contract was up at the end of this year, but bypassing two more years and a total of $59 million to keep it .300? Nobody cares about batting average that much.

Trevor Collicott: How do you write for fan graphs?

Jay Jaffe: With both hands.

Trent: When you look back on this season in a few years, will you be applying a giant mental asterisk to all the hitters’ statistics, based on the unprecedented HR rate as fueled by the juiced ball?

Jay Jaffe: High home run rates part of the 21st century baseball landscape. I think we’ll look back on this season the way we do the high-scoring , high-homer 1999-2001 seasons — as extremes but not that far divorced rom what surrounded them.

The lesson I’ve taken from those years is that the raw numbers and rates are interesting when analyzing those seasons, but that i’m a bit more wary of the meaning of milestones (500 HR, for example). All the more reason to use more comprehensive metrics that adjust for park and league scoring levels.

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Who do you suppose would win the AL CY if voting took place today?  Verlander leads in a lot of the traditional stats while Minor and Lynn are ahead in both versions of WAR.

Jay Jaffe: Lynn’s 3.60 ERA is probably too high to win. Leaving last night’s Detroit snit aside, I don’t think that Verlander has it locked up. Cole’s numbers are very similar to his teammates. Morton and Minor and Giolito are all in the conversation, too.

Wayne: Schmidt, Boggs, Brett & Molitor were a great 3B crop to grow up with, but who do you have as the best since then? Adrian with the glove & the fun or Chipper with the big switch hit bat?

Jay Jaffe: Both greats and worthy Hall of Famers. I have Beltre 4th and Jones 6th in JAWS. I probably enjoyed Beltre’s stretch with the Rangers as much as any recent player this side of Trout and Kershaw, for the added dimensions of the glove and the social media stuff.

JKD: IF they change the ball, how aggressive will teams be in pre-emptively cutting loose or de-emphasizing hitters who have been the biggest beneficiaries? Or will they wait and see?

Jay Jaffe: We’ve already seen that happen to some degree over the past few seasons, with one-dimensional sluggers like Chris Carter and Mark Trumbo devalued, and a fresh wave of swing-changers putting themselves on the map thanks to the new wave of hitting coaches and instructors. Why pay $15 million a year for midlevel free agent first baseman who can give you 30 homers when you can tweak the swing of a fringe guy and get similar production?

Oaktoon: A’s once again proving FG Playoff Odds dead wrong– so assuming (yes, big assumptions) a) they make it and b) they can get by one-gamer– doesn’t 5 of 6 wins from HOUS/NYY this week show that great defense, power up and down lineup and deep bullpen could succeed in October?

Jay Jaffe: Dead wrong? Are you telling me that the ice cube tray in your freezer disproves global warming?

The A’s began the year with a 32.3% chance at making the playoffs, the sixth-highest in the AL, just outside the playoff picture. They now show a 53.5% chance of making the playoffs, which is… sixth in the AL, just outside the playoff picture. They’re a good ballclub with a legitimate shot of overtaking the Rays and/or Indians for that Wild Card spot, but this is not “gotcha” territory when it comes to our playoff odds. Put those ice cubes in your drink, and chill just a bit.

3000 hits: No matter the scoring levels, seems this is one milestone that still guarantees HOF (minus PEDs). Yes, we now have a ton of young stars, but they’re not really racking up hit totals (though they could if they stick around 20 years). Aside from Altuve (and Cano/PEDs/etc), any of these studs look like hit-aggregators in the long run?

Jay Jaffe: The highest hit total of any player who’s not yet 30 is Starlin Castro’s 1,574, and he’s been sub-replacement level this year; Altuve is 44 hits behind him but will blaze past next year.

There’s nobody sneaking up who won’t be slowed by the era’s emphasis on power and walks. Manny Machado (1176 and still in his age-26 season) and Mike Trout (1315 in his age-27) are in much better shape than their peers; the next-highest active guy at 26 is Bryce Harper (1039). Lindor (799) leads those in their age-25 seasons.

Guest: deGrom Cy chances?

Jay Jaffe: Peripherals be damned, I think that in the eyes of the voters, it’s going to be hard for any NL pitcher to surpass Ryu while he’s carrying a 1.64 ERA

Bullpen Management: It appears that teams are, in many cases, at least attempting to use their bullpens more correctly as time moves forward.  Do you think we will be at at a point soon where we’ll see a team protecting a 2-run lead in the 4th inning with their best available reliever [with the belief that runs, at any point, are essentially very important].  Example; Brewers are winning 2-0, but the opposing team has bases loaded and one out in the bottom of the 4th with the middle of the lineup coming up — the best route to stop run scoring would be to bring in Josh Hader.  Do you think teams, managers, players are ready for this optimal change?

Jay Jaffe: not like that, not anytime soon. A 2-run lead in the 4th inning isn’t a high-leverage situation, and a manager who tried to run his staff that way would probably have an open mutiny on his hands by Memorial Day. The culture of baseball does not change that radically in a short time.

Bebo: Doesn’t the league risk a new dead ball era if they change the balls back?

Jay Jaffe: A new deadball era, with a home run for every 5 or10 games played, and scoring levels below 4 per game? I can guarantee you that’s not how this is going to go down

A dude : What are the odds Luis Castillo is able to finish in the top 3 of NL Cy Young voting? And do you think he could end his career with a Cy Young?

Jay Jaffe: Top 3? Not with those DR drug ring allegations hanging over… .ohhhhh, the other Luis Castillo.

He’s having a fine season, but I don’t see the statistical or intangible hook that gets him into the top 3 unless he just dominates September. I definitely think he has the talent to win a Cy Young award if he stays healthy, but we’re not there yet.

Kosch: Do you order food everyday for lunch?  If so, how do you afford rent, diapers, etc?

Jay Jaffe: No. I generally either reheat some leftovers or take a walk and buy a more affordable lunch, but with a noon chat, it’s a lot harder to fit the latter in. I probably order lunch about 6 times a month — rare outside of chat days but hardly unprecedented — and maybe we order dinner twice a week. I really enjoy cooking as a way of escaping the keyboards and screens while keeping a handle on household expenses and routines.

Ron Burgundy: Since your July 2 article on Machado when he sat with 2.3 fWAR, he has gone .247/.303/.389, 82 wRC+ and currently sits at 2.5 fWAR. His last HR was July 30 and has 2 XBH’s in August. He has been awful in his home park all season. What is going on? Injury, indifference, pressing?

Jay Jaffe: A good question, and worth another look at some point, either from me or somebody else who can bring a different perspective

Jay Jaffe: Speaking of which, Eno Sarris’ piece on Machado and Harper and the rarity of young free agents, from yesterday, is worth a read if you have a subscription. Long story shot, yes, both are underperforming relative to expectations but are the only players among among the top 50 in WAR who are both under 30 and acquired via free agency. And of course they’re 26, not 29 or something. In the long run, this will probably pay off  https://theathletic.com/1150554/2019/08/21/sarris-those-hefty-contract…

pirates hurdles: What if Markakis fools the braves into 4 more years, he would make a great 3000 hit test case. I know its improbable, but not impossible

Jay Jaffe: Considering he’s unlikely to hit 1.0 WAR by either our flavor or B-Ref’s, I think it’s pretty clear that’s not happening.

Guest: Do you think it would be more effective to use the Median JAWS to evaluate HOF chances? RF and CF are so top heavy with WAR that average maybe not a fair assessment of the bar to clear.

Jay Jaffe: wrote this in 2013 https://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2013/01/03/jaws-and-the-2013-ballot…. Long story short, using the median flags even more candidates as worthy than we’ve already had in recent years, which is a very tough position to defend.

JustCurious: Pretty sure that isn’t the optimal time to bring in Hader. People forget that top relievers only have so many innings to pitch. You use Hader in the 4th and then need 5 innings from lesser relievers. All the sudden you’ve used him and still lost. Best relievers should be used in the highest leverage spot not the spot where the team is most likely to score (obviously some correlation there, but they aren’t the same).

Jay Jaffe: Not to mention the fact that the pitcher’s spot comes up and benches are already shortened by these big bullpens, so at some point in the later innings, you’ve got an unfavorable matchup where your 4th best reliever is hitting with men on base or something.

Balked: If Tatis missed the rest of the season as expected, will he miss out on Rookie of the Year honors?

Jay Jaffe: Pete Alonso has already broken Cody Bellinger’s NL rookie record for homers and is at the center of a contending team. Given how much time Tatis had already missed, I think it would have been hard for him to overtake Alonso.

John: Can nick markakis find playing time for 600 more hits and if he does get 600 more hits……..

Jay Jaffe: his defense has deteriorated to the point of near-unplayability, so probably not. And no, even if he gets to 3,000 hits, i have an extremly hard time envisioning him getting elected. I can’t imagine voting for him if he’s 17 miles short of the JAWS standard (he’s 78 in the JAWS RF rankings, 4 spots below Harold Baines).

Angels: how soul crushing is 3 walk off losses on the road when you are barely handing on to a potential playoff run?

Jay Jaffe: when you were 62-64 before those 3 walkoff losses, you weren’t hanging onto a potential playoff run, you were hoping for miracles.

TomBruno23: Who is a player that as a kid you enjoyed a lot even though, in retrospect, he wasn’t really all that great? For me it’s definitely Vince Coleman. Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: For some reason Gorman Thomas comes to mind. He had about a 5-year run as a 4-win player but almost no value outside of that. He was a favorite, but not anything close to an MVP or whatever

Tribe Fanatic: Eloy Jimenez has had his share of struggles this year.  Just normal or cause for a major reevaluation in his projections in 2020 and beyond?

Jay Jaffe: With the caveats that I’m not a scout and haven’t seen all that much of him this year, this seems kinda normal, but the continued injuries do rate a concern — something Eric and Kiley pointed to in their evaluations https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-30-prospects-chicago-white-sox/). The power is there, the swing-and-miss is a bit high, and the defense is brutal, but he’s 22.

Bo: What’s your favorite meal to cook? Looking for some inspiration that isn’t chicken / sweet potatoes / veggies.

Jay Jaffe: Hmmm. Spaghetti and meatballs is one of my favorites, in part because I’m adapting my mom’s recipes and because Emma loves my version. Likewise with my mom’s brisket recipe.

Lamb ragu over pappardelle, using this recipe https://www.foodandwine.com/recipes/pappardelle-lamb-ragu, which I’ve adapted to the instant pot, fills me with satisfaction. This instant pot shredded chicken tacos one https://lifemadesimplebakes.com/instant-pot-shredded-chicken-tacos/ is also fun, and I feel like i’m getting away with something because it’s relatively healthy compared to, say, carnitas.

Guest: Mike Soroka 4.8 bWAR/ 3.4 fWAR vs Pete Alonso 4.3 bWAR/ 4.1 fWAR. I fully realize Pete is going to win Rookie of the year with the HR’s. That said in a year of the juiced ball I find Soroka’s ability to limit the long ball more impressive than Pete’s ability to hit it. Soroka is more important to the first place Braves Rotation that experienced crazy turnover last year to this year than Alonso is to the Mets offense imo. Wish there was a rookie of the year pitcher award separate from batter award.

Jay Jaffe: You’re right, he belongs in the discussion, and what he’s done has been impressive. If he were missing a ton of bats, he’d have more traction in the awards race

stever20: what are your thoughts on Chris Sale?  Is this just extending it before he has to have TJ surgery?

Jay Jaffe: I’m dealing with a bit of cognitive dissonance on this one. If he had no ligament damage (as claimed) why did he get a PRP injection, and into where? If it’s this, I’m still somewhat concerned about the long-term possibility of TJ:

That doesn’t mean Sale can’t be effective or is automatically going to wind up getting TJ before contributing more of value — look at Masahiro Tanaka since he was diagnosed and injected in 2014 (!), or Aaron Nola in 2016.

But beyond just his elbow/UCL< I’m also concerned about Sale’s recent history of shoulder trouble, which is always more ominous than elbow trouble because there’s no TJ equivalent, with a similarly high success rate.

Richie: So what was it about Gorman that you liked?

Jay Jaffe: a shaggy dude who liked to hit home runs and run into walls, playing for a very fun team

dibidibidib: Do you have a favorite under-the-radar or underappreciated ballpark (MiLB included)?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve only been to it twice but have really liked Smith’s Park in Salt Lake City when I’ve been there. The Wasatch Mountains as backdrop is a great view. Both minor league NYC parks, in Coney Island and Staten Island, have unbeatable backdrops as well. There are still a lot of major league parks I haven’t visited, most notably PNC among the top tier ones, but Dodger Stadium has stood out for the history and the views, and Citi, Safeco, and AT&T for things like amenities and ballpark experience as a whole.

Eric Gregg: Didn’t Dave Cameron recommend the Braves in the 2012 wild card game  using Kimbrel I the 1st, Vemters km the 2nd etc?  Basically make sure you use your best pitchers in reverse order?  Do you agree?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t recall whether Dave did that specifically, but in a one-game single elimination situation, i can see the argument, even if I’m not sure I agree. For one thing, I’d like to have something better than my sixth- or ninth-best pitcher pitching the ninth, particularly if it’s a close game.

DJ Tanner: The Dodgers are usually on the smart end of most deals but how bad is trading away Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields going to look in 10 years?

Jay Jaffe: Probably not great, the Alvarez that they traded in 2016 was a different player from the one today, as he wasn’t elevating the ball with consistency. The BA Handbook from 2017 had him as the Astros’ 28th-best prospect, admittedly in an org they ranked 4th at the time. A whole lot has gone right for him to get even to this stage.

ChanceSisco’sThongSong: Eric Davis was __________

Jay Jaffe: as electrifying a ballplayer as I have ever seen.

Jay Jaffe: 64 homers, 130 steals, 149 wRC+ and 11.8 WAR in 1986-87, his age 24- and 25 seasons.

JustCurious: Any thoughts on the Verlander situation?

Jay Jaffe: Bush league on the Astros’ part — they have no standing to bar a credentialed reporter from the clubhouse unless s/he’s done something to violate the rules. It’s up to JV whether he wants to talk to a given reporter or not, but the team can’t prevent anyone from doing his/her job.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks I’ve reached my pitch count. Thanks for stopping by!

Jay Jaffe: And before I forget, here’s my Bo Bichette piece: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bo-bichette-is-walloping-the-baseball/