Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/17/21

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat. I’ve got a piece today about notable second-half slides that have crowded the Wild Card race https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-second-half-slides-that-have-crowd…, and earlier this week, I wrote about Team Entropy (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/team-entropy-2021-lets-get-wild/), Max Scherzer (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-chases-perfection-and-collect…), Ryan Braun’s retirement (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ryan-brauns-complicated-legacy/)

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

Fat Spielberg: Do you think it’s true that Steve Cohen’s tweeting has hurt the Mets chances of hiring decent FO people?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s helped that cause, to say the least, but I think the bigger problem is that the organization just reeks of a dysfunctional culture, and the most prominent person in common to the Wilpon era and the Cohen one is Sandy Alderson, who’s apparently returning despite three notable hiring gaffes that blew up in the team’s face. I don’t see how you’re going to land an Epstein or a Beane if Alderson is still in place.

Fat Spielberg: I’ve heard a lot of people this season call Bryce Harper a future first ballot HoFer. I don’t necessarily disagree, but when I look at his comps on bbref, it’s a group of really good players, but only one HoFer in the group (Reggie Jackson. And Barry Bonds.) Are people jumping the gun, or has this season (which I assume isn’t used in those comps) pushed him over the edge?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think Harper has come close to guaranteeing first-ballot status but his early start put him on a Hall of Fame path, and the way he’s played over the past two seasons has helped get him back onto it after his progress was slowed. Wrote about him in this context here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ten-position-players-who-have-most-helped-…

Tom: Hi Jay. I know it’s early, but any thoughts on what the NL West is gonna look like next year? You think we’re gonna get another season of three “superteams” mixing it up?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think we can characterize the Padres as a superteam after what happened to them this year, particularly with a rotation that was projected to be among the game’s best just falling apart, and I suspect we’ll see some changes. Would they fire Preller and/or Tingler? I’m not sure, but a lot blew up in their faces this year. I think the Dodgers will remain a powerhouse but could look different depending upon how they approach the free agencies of Seager, Kershaw, and possibly Scherzer. I expect the Giants could look different as well given their aging core and the number of free agents they have, but we know this new regime is pretty smart and I expect they’ll be  in the mix going forward

Steve: Whose HOF voting arc will Alex Rodriguez most resemble?

a. Rafael Palmeiro
b. Manny Ramirez
c. Barry Bonds
d. Larry Walker

Jay Jaffe: Manny. It’s very tough for voters to get around a suspension, and A-Rod had the longest PED one of any player who wasn’t banned

Fat Spielberg: Although I really liked him as a player, the HoF selection of Harold Baines really came out of left field. Are we likely to ever see this kind of selection again?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t expect a selection from a committee that’s quite that egregious, but I think that Fred McGriff, who never moved the needle as far as JAWS was concerned, is likely to be honored in this context, and there are some Golden Days candidates who have come close in the past that I’m notably lukewarm about (Oliva and Kaat, esp.)

Greg F: Curious to know who your trendy breakout candidates for 2022 are. Who do you like?

Jay Jaffe: Kinda got my hands full thinking about the rest of this year, sorry

Erik: Why do people suddenly think Epstein is about to come back? Wasn’t he pretty clear that he wanted a break??

Jay Jaffe: Opportunity doesn’t knock every day. Money and desirable job openings have a way of convincing someone they’ve gotten enough of a break. And a lot of times people leak that they’re interested in a position through the media. I don’t know for sure that’s happening with Epstein but he’d hardly be the first for whom it did.

Which isn’t to say he has to take the Mets job or, since it’s been floated, a similar position with the Padres. He’s got an interesting winter ahead

Sam Palazzo: Do the Yankees resign Rizzo this offseason?

Jay Jaffe: doubtful, since they kept Voit and he’s rebounded . He presents a chance for them to get good bang for the buck, which is important given their spending habits

Jay Jaffe: lunch (sushi and tempura) just arrived so bear with the slowdown for a few minutes, as I’m famished.

MH: What do you think about Longoria’s HoF case? Just about to hit 50 JAWS, but not talked about very much. Thinking that the lost time this year really hurt, especially since he had a chance to improve his peak score.

Jay Jaffe: that was a very tough blow he suffered, costing him over two months at a time when he was playing very well. I think he has an uphill battle given the way voters have historically treated third basemen, and his comparative dearth of individual honors or black ink. But he’s got a chance to make some noise with a very strong team in October, which can help his cause too

Mrs Phanatic: I know this is a player you probably forgot about, but which team do you think could fix Vinny Velazquez? Or is he so bad not even the Rays could fix him?

Jay Jaffe: Probably not the Padres, alas. The Giants have done very well fixing pitchers during the Zaidi era, the Rays are probably a good bet. Maybe the Dodgers.

Mi Nombre: deGrom (1261 IP | 64 ERA- | 65 FIP-) is almost half way to Pedro’s career (2827 IP | 66 ERA- | 68 FIP-) and Hader (275 IP | 54 ERA- | 62 FIP-) is almost a third of the way to Wagner’s career (903 IP | 54 ERA- | 63 FIP-). Who has the better chance of making it there?

Jay Jaffe: the one who didn’t suffer a second UCL tear and who’s still in his 20s.

Rick: What happened to Dominic Smith this year and is it just a blip this year or was he overrated?

Jay Jaffe: he’s somebody I want to take a closer look at but for now I’ll note that his big successes (and for that matter, his big failures before this year) have all come in playing time samples of less than 200 PA. He’s had one season of 1.0 WAR or more out of four.

DF: Given the Reds recent stumbles, I’m back to wondering where they’d be if they’d just kept Raisel Iglesias. The bullpen has been better of late, but there were easily games earlier in the season where he could have been the difference. No way to know for sure, but that $9MM they saved sure looks like a mistake now. What’s a current estimate of the value to a team winning the wildcard?

Jay Jaffe: Almost certainly more than $9 million

Scott: Really enjoyed “Once Upon A Time in Queens,” the recent 30 for 30 on the ‘86 Mets. Still hard to believe that only one member is in HOF. What do you think the chances are for Keith Hernandez and Davey Johnson on future era committees? I know Johnson has been passed over twice already.

Jay Jaffe: I’m surprised Hernandez hasn’t even been able to get on a ballot, particularly given that he’s still prominent within the game. That said, his case is overly dependent on defensive metrics that back his reputation and committee voters aren’t necessarily the biggest supporters of those numbers. Johnson — great but short career, not getting back to a World Series hurts him a lot given that there are other eligible managers vying for space on the same ballot who at least made it there a couple times.

Don: Hi Jay, is there a way to look at splits for catcher framing stats according to which pitcher is being caught?

Jay Jaffe: alas, not that I know of

Guardians Fan: I think Juan Soto deserves the MVP the most what do you think

Jay Jaffe: I think that Harper and Tatis are probably the top two candidates at this point, and that even among those two there’s no clear-cut choice

Rick: Lot of swing and miss in the sss for Duran of Boston and Marsh in LA. Anything you see more than just growing pains ?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t seen much of either, to be honest, but they’re different prospects — Marsh is 23 and a 60 FV guy who has found a way to be at least modestly productive in his first taste of major league action while Duran is 25, a 50 FV prospect, and might be classified as a Replacement Level Killer. I don’t think either will come close to their ceilings while striking out 35%% or more, but I’d also say it’s probably too early to panic.

WinTwins0410: Jay (this piggybacks on Spielberg’s question), I’ve been enjoying reading the Cooperstown Casebook (plug: every FanGraphs reader should own and read the Casebook!) and I was wondering: Was there a reason you didn’t mention Harold Baines anywhere in it? (I know that the Casebook came out well before Baines got in.). Was it the case that you really hadn’t seen any likelihood of him getting in anytime soon? (By “anytime soon,” I mean anytime soon in the years after the Casebook was published.)

Jay Jaffe: Baines wasn’t at all on my radar when the book was written, but also, I was about 80 pages past my original word count and had to leave a whole bunch of 1970s/80s guys out of the Further Consideration sections at each position. Dave Parker comes to mind.

Ben: Are Andrelton Simmons’, Anthony Rendon’s, and Stephen Strasburg’s HoF chances toast after this year or do you hold out any hope for any of them?

Jay Jaffe: Simmons is toast in this context With a 72 wRC+ over the past three seasons, he’s not going to be anybody’s first choice for a starting job. Strasburg’s odds are a lot longer given that he’s just lost two seasons, but he’s got long-term security in his favor. Likewise Rendon. Both will keep getting chances from the teams that are paying them, and it’s not unreasonable to think that if they’re healthy, the talent is still there.

Pat: Hey Jay, am a big fan of your writing! Who do you personally think will get the 2 AL WC spots, and who would you have winning?

Jay Jaffe: Thank you for the kind words. Right now I think the Blue Jays are going to be one of the teams and that it’s a coin toss between the Red Sox and Yankees for the other. Any of those three teams has the capability of winning if they’re able to deploy their ace (Ray, Sale, Cole) but it may take using that guy just to get the spot, so who the hell knows?

Ned Ryerson: Any chance Wainwright can put together a couple good years to get into the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: how many weeks in a row have we done this one?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s very unlikely

Mason Bateman: What do you think is the best possible playoff format with the league as it currently stands? (30 teams, 6 divisions, etc.)

Jay Jaffe: I like the idea that’s been floated to go KBO style with the Wild Card, require the lower-seeded team to win two games to advance but the higher-seeded team to win only one game.

David: looking at the WAR leaderboards both here and at baseball ref it looks like there might not be any one with 7+ position player WAR this year.  Is the lack of great hitting seasons this year unusual? And is it just a fluke?

Jay Jaffe: The Blue Jays might have two by bWAR — Vladito (6.1 currently) and Semien (6.8), plus Correa’s at 6.3 and Tatis at 6.6 — those guys are like a big day or two from getting to 7.

Corbin Burnes: Do you think Chase Utley deserves a plaque, and do you think he will get one?

Jay Jaffe: I think he’s definitely worthy, but his late start, modest counting stats and reliance upon defensive stats will make him a tougher sell for voters. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/utleys-chase-for-cooperstown/

Guest: The active second baseman with the greatest Hall of Fame odds is ___.

Jay Jaffe: Altuve, but I’d put his odds at maybe about 30-40%

barney gumble: at what point does Gleyber Torres run out of road? he’s struggled mightily for a while, and the Yankees can’t afford to have him clog up the middle infield next year, particularly if they go for one of the free agent shortstops.

Jay Jaffe: Well, they just moved him to second base as an acknowledgement of what the rest of us knew — he’s not a shortstop and there are about to be a whole bunch of good ones on the market. I think he’s probably got only a limited time to bounce back after two years of struggles, though. If the Yankees sign a shortstop, they’ll have to figure out how to fit LeMahieu, Torres, and Urshela in the lineup; it’s malpractice to sell so low on a guy who hit 38 homers at age 22, and even Urshela’s coming off a down season, so it will be interesting to see how they play this.

Maddoning: Can you think of another healthy player that has dropped off as much as Cody Bellinger?  What is really going on there?

Jay Jaffe: Either he injured his shoulder and leg and has had trouble getting right since then, like many players before him, or he woke up one morning and forgot how to hit. Which do you think it is?

Roberta’s Piazza: Purely on the field – Kevin Brown or Curt Schilling for HOF?

Jay Jaffe: purely on the field, it’s obviously Schilling and it’s not particularly close. I look forward to leaving him off my ballot nonetheless.

Ben: If someone came back from the future and told you that eventually a member of the 2016 Cubs gets into the HoF, who would be your best guess? Rizzo? Bryant? Zobrist? Baez? Joe Nathan? Jon Lester? Kyle Hendricks?

Jay Jaffe: Bryant, who’s already banked some of the major building blocks of a Hall case, namely the MVP award and a championship ring (plus the Rookie of the Year award). He’s also the only one currently playing at a star level.

Roberta’s Piazza: How would you compare Julio Urias’ most likely outcome now to what it was six years ago?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s pretty miraculous that he’s become the pitcher the Dodgers hoped that he would given his precociousness and the severity of his shoulder injury. He’s still only in his age-24 season and he’s on the fringes of a Cy Young race, crowded out by two of his current teammates.

Roberta’s Piazza: What player’s JAWS score is the furthest away from their actual HOF worthiness?

Jay Jaffe: Lou Brock. The holder of the single-season and career stolen bases records at the time he retired, a monster in 3 World Series, and a guy who was ahead of his time in studying pitcher motions. He’s short of 40 JAWS and just 37th among left fielders; rough defense is part of that. Still, I don’t know how you could keep him out of Cooperstown given his impact. More here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-lou-brock-1939-2000-base-thief…

Trent: Are the Mariners playoff hopes for this year gone or do they still have an outside shot?

Jay Jaffe: Our odds give them a 0.9% chance. Unless they do something like go 14-2 I think they’re in real trouble

Tommy: How do you rank the sushi and tempura? Which had more value/dollar?

Jay Jaffe: The sushi was a good value. The tempura didn’t travel well — some restaurants smartly cut small holes in the packaging so that it doesn’t keep steaming itself and become soggy in transit. This one did not, so it was not so great. The next time I have a tempura craving I’ll go for the restaurant that I know does better with delivering it

Joshua: Does King Felix have a shot at a career revival? If so where do you see that happening?

Jay Jaffe: highly doubtful given his trends, and it’s not as though he looked like a world-beater in spring training last year

Konrad: Jarred Kelenic has been making frequent adjustments to his batting stance, sometimes during the game. Do you see him maybe over the off-season finding some consistency with his mechanics and having a breakout 2022?

Jay Jaffe: I think he has a lot of work to do this winter, but that the talent is still worth betting on.

Ben: Is there an easy way on Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs to see a player’s WAR by position (Like Stan Musial at 1B vs. OF or Frank Thomas at DH vs. 1B)?

Jay Jaffe: Alas, no way that I know that provides WAR splits like that on a career basis.

Nate: How is Paul Goldschmidt’s HOF case looking to you after this year?

Jay Jaffe: he’s making some progress but has a long way to go. Wrote a graf about him here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-pitchers-and-some-more-position-play…

Robin Ventura: Any serious HOF consideration for me?

Jay Jaffe: Struck down by the Rule of 2,000 and a large crowd of better 3B.

DJ: Do you think the Brewers will move starters like Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer to a bullpen role during the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe: absolutely. I don’t think there’s any team that has done a better job of preparing its pitchers to be flexible in roles, and to take advantage of matchups, than the Brewers has. That should make them fun to watch in October. Go in and get outs.

Jay Jaffe: Speaking of Lauer, Luke Hooper just wrote about him in that context https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-lauers-emergence-gives-the-brewers-oc…

WinTwins0410: Jay, congratulations on resolving to do a Cooperstown Casebook update. I’m curious what an update might look like. I am sure you’ll continue to champion at least some of the seven remaining guys’ candidacies you touted in the first edition who haven’t yet gotten in — at least those of Andruw Jones, Dick Allen, Minnie Minoso, Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich and perhaps David Ortiz? (I don’t see a new book championing Curt Schilling, though; you didn’t vote for him this past year!). In an update, will there be any new candidates for whom you’ll make cases for induction? Dwight Evans? Kenny Lofton? Luis Tiant? Curt Flood? Dave Stieb? Bret Saberhagen? David Cone? Kevin Brown? Others?

Jay Jaffe: If I do get to do a second book I’ll view it as more of a sequel than an update, I think. I can only fit so much into a book and don’t expect to sell somebody the same collection of essays twice, though I’d imagine that all of the ones I covered at length in the first book will get some kind of epilogue. I think the position players you mention would be some of the ones I’d cover at length (I did a Lofton chapter that ended up on the cutting room floor). I’m less sure about the pitchers beyond Tiant and maybe Brown, because individually none of them has very strong cases — but the topic of starting pitching could use some deeper thinking.

Guest: not everyone reads these chats every week, or reads everything you write!

Jay Jaffe: (this is re: Wainwright). I get that, and I appreciate that there’s lots of interest. I did cover him in the HOF article that I linked for the Goldschmidt answer. Short answer: “Maybe he has it in him to stick around for another 20 wins [now 17] to get to 200, but he might not even crack the top 100 in JAWS while doing so.”

mookie magic: what do you think ends up happening with scherzer this offseason? his comments after his 3000K game about hoping to be kershaw’s teammate when he gets to 3000 sure make it sound like he wants to stay in LA, and granted he won’t be as otherwordly as he has been since the trade because nobody’s that good but it seems like he’s making quite the case that the dodgers should try and get that done.

Jay Jaffe: I saw that quote and my eyes just about jumped out of my head. I would have to think the Dodgers saw that as well

Jay Jaffe: I think they’ll work to keep him if that interest is genuine. Between re-signing Kershaw and figuring out what happens with Bauer — whom I suspect will get a lenghthy suspension and free up some money —  they’ve got a lot of balls in the air, though.

Nate: Why so low on Altuve’s HOF chances?  It feels like he has the “fame” part with a MVP and World Series and his counting stats seem to be in good shape through age 31.  Do you see him not aging well or do you think his accomplishments-to-date are a bit light?

Jay Jaffe: injury risk and second baseman aging patterns. He missed a lot of time from 2018-20 and wasn’t always himself when he was playing. Can his bat carry him as a DH if he loses another step in the field?

James Phelan: What do you think of Xander Boegarts future as a short stop- does being a Boras player factor in at all to him moving to 3rd or 2nd?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s tough to envision him as a shortstop long-term given his multiseason metrics. Wrote about it here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/xander-bogaerts-hot-bat-and-cold-glove/. We’ll see what happens next year, but I suspect even the Red Sox have to be thinking about it.

Bill: How did you earn the right to vote for the HOF?  Why is the vote anonymous?

Jay Jaffe: It takes 10 years of continuous membership in the BBWAA to get a Hall of Fame vote. The voting isn’t anonymous — a voter can check a box and agree to have his/her ballot published on the BBWAA site a couple weeks after the results are announced, and the vast majority of voters not only do, but also share their ballots (and sometimes their thought process) with their readers. Only somebody who doesn’t want to reveal his/her ballot can keep it anonymous

Cube Jockey: Are there any eligible pitchers whose HOF numbers are either greatly helped or hurt by their batting stats?

Jay Jaffe: Wes Ferrell, a likely Early Baseball Era Committee candidate, gets a huge bump from offense (~12 WAR), https://stathead.com/tiny/VIEuQ while Bobby Mathews, a 19th century guy with 297 wins (but just a 104 ERA+, and a pretty meh case for my money) takes about a 7-WAR hit. https://stathead.com/tiny/wURf2

Pat: What am I missing about this Brown/Schilling thing not being close?

Jay Jaffe: Whoops, got the order jumlbed. Schilling, a high-strikeout pitcher, is 28th in JAWS, 2.3 points above the standard. Brown, who struck out about 700 fewer guys in a similar innings total, is 52nd, about 6 points below the standard. Sticking to what’s on the field, Schilling burnished his credentials with a very strong postseason showing, where Brown was pretty mediocre in October.

Jay Jaffe: Sorry, had to thread some answers there

Pat: McGriff is a good example to me of how arbitrary the whole voting process is. The guy hit 493 HRs. Does anyone seriously doubt that if he had managed to hit 7 more that he’d be in? He probably would have gotten in first ballot if he did that. 7 more HRs.

Jay Jaffe: Quite possibly but it’s also worth noting that McGriff was also somewhat one-dimensional as a player and doesn’t get any traction from WAR/JAWS, which has obviously helped some candidates’ causes lately

Joshua: Who do you think is the starting shortstop for the Nats next year? Mike Rizzo is someone who continuously tries to compete, and he definitely went after MLB ready prospects (Ruiz, Gray, Adams, Thompson, Thomas) at the deadline this year. I would love to see them go after Correa, but I think Trevor Story makes a ton of sense. Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: Story or Semien might make the most sense for them because I don’t see them as the team likely to write the biggest check for a shortstop this winter.

barney gumble: as awful a guy as he is, do you think leaving schilling off the ballet opens up a can of worms in regards to the HOF now factoring in a player’s personal life? or would we have have to face this issue regardless as domestic violence guys come onto the ballet?

Jay Jaffe: If the Hall is going to leave the character clause as is, I don’t see how they can stop voters from considering things that illustrate far more serious issues about a player’s character than what happens between the lines.

Mr. Burrito: Kenley Jansen: Potential HOF candidate or Hall of the Very Good?

Jay Jaffe: I think he needs a few more good years to get to the Hall but I don’t know if he has it in him

Ben: According to DRS, Trea Turner is the better shortstop, but UZR thinks Corey Seager is better. Do you think the Dodgers agree with UZR that Seager is better there or did they just move Turner to 2B out of loyalty to Seager?

Jay Jaffe: i think it had a lot to do with Turner having major league experience at 2B and CF

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, wow, I’m out of time.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks so much for stopping by today. Have a great week!