Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/11/19

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:04

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : I keep hearing that the NL central is the best division in baseball. I didn’t believe it, but I added up the projected WAR OF every division, and I’ll be danged but sure nuff, it really was the best. But what really blew my mind was the tiny separation in projected WAR between the #1 team and the #5 team in that division–11.5 WAR, barely half of the next best division. Has there ever before been a divisional projection that tight in the FG era?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Let me say this: it’s too early to perform this kind of analysis, because the offseason still has a long way to go, and our projections right now are just Steamer instead of Steamer and ZiPS

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: And I think what people probably mean is that the NL Central might have five at least decently competitive teams. In the NL East, there should be four competitive teams and the Marlins

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what more the Reds are going to do. I don’t know if the Pirates are going to do anything. But it’ll be fun. The whole NL should be fun — a lot crazier than this year’s upcoming AL

9:07	Pachuca: Do you like Travis Shaw as a potential MVP darkhorse for 2019? K and BB numbers moved in very encouraging directions last year…

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: That is a very dark horse

9:09	Airport Banana: If the Brewers can add an average or better 2B, where does their lineup rank in the NL?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a good lineup, but there are a lot of good lineups in the NL, like the Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Reds…

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: With a second baseman, the Brewers might push into the top five. But they’ll still be playing Arcia almost every day. In the NL, it’s a crowded field

9:12	stever20: What are the Dodgers going to do at catcher now that Grandal is gone for sure?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Feels like Francisco Cervelli is the obvious fit provided the Dodgers are satisfied with his concussion recovery

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: You wonder if someone like Russell Martin would alternatively work. In any case, just a short-term stopgap until one of the kids is ready

9:13	Fangraph’s Lurker: My new plan to pay off my student loans from law school is to convince the white sox that machado and I are close friends. Chances I can get atleast a 200k contract out of that?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: You’re going to have to create some fake internet portals

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Can you mirror an Athletic article with an old timestamp? Need an electronic paper trail

9:15	Joe: Steamer predicts -2.2 WAR for Lourdes Gurriel Jr in 2019. To me, that’s insane; Gurriel tied Tony Perez with an 11-game multi-hit streak last season — a streak snapped only by injury. Am I nuts for being bullish on Gurriel?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: To be clear for everyone, the WAR projection is positive, not negative

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: What I would cite is that, for all the positives, Gurriel also wound up with 59 strikeouts and eight unintentional walks

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: In a small sample, he rated as a strongly negative defensive shortstop

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see anything too terribly wrong with the projection

9:18	Shane DeStefano: What do you see the mets doing with Jeff McNeil now that they have murdered his value at 2B? Are the reports that he is moving to the OF to be believed?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I do think the Mets see McNeil as a potential utility player. But with Conforto, Nimmo, Broxton, and Lagares, they don’t need much playing time sopped up in the outfield. And clearly, the infield is crowded right now

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Something that’s easy to forget is that McNeil has options — even though he slaughtered the minors last season, he could always return, if the roster doesn’t have room

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Some will come down to Alonso. Some will come down to whether the Mets keep Frazier. Based on the current personnel it’s not easy to get McNeil more than 100-200 plate appearances, but the Mets know better than most teams that you tend to need more depth than you expect

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this is how I would’ve run my offseason in New York, but I’m also a pretty big McNeil fan, and I think he’s ready to be a regular

9:24	mark appel: who will breakout next year

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: About a tenth of the players we write about breaking out in April and May

9:24	Brian Cashman: Which relative, childhood friend, or dog of Manny Machado must I sign to remain competitive with the White Sox and Phillies?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Take the money you would give to his loved ones, and then, hear me out — give that money to Manny Machado

9:25	Dustin: is it so crazy to think that the brewers could make a real splash and go grab bryce harper? Give him a 4, 5 year opt-out and really try to maximize this current window they have with yelich and cain?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, on paper, of course you could fit Harper in Milwaukee, but they just can’t possibly compete with other teams’ resources

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: They’re already projected for easily the highest opening-day payroll in club history

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: To say nothing of the challenge of moving pieces around on that roster to accommodate Harper in the first place

9:27	Bort: Tyler Chatwood: is there any hope here? Bob Tewksbury got brought on as their mental skills coach, and his problems seemed like they were mostly located inside his noggin.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Chatwood, 2017: 58% strikes Chatwood, 2018: 56% strikes MLB average: ~64% strikes

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: There’s definitely hope for anyone that young, with that raw stuff. The Rays just got Tyler Glasnow to find the strike zone. But I wouldn’t be so quick to conclude the problems are mental. Chatwood has never really thrown many strikes, and he’s been at this for years

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to see someone commit to using him somewhat regularly out of the bullpen. Give him a couple months to find his footing. Still shutdown reliever potential

9:31	stever20: Why do you think the postseason this year has impacted free agency more this year than before?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Do I think that?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: The patterns are basically the same. We’re pretty clearly seeing more and more resources committed to the bullpen

9:33	Mandy is 92% Fresh: As a baseball market, Portland is closest to what current MLB market?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Pittsburgh?

9:35	Stevil: Russell Martin and Cavan Biggio to Seattle for Jay Bruce, 8 million, and Josh Stowers. Who says no?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Quite possibly Jay Bruce, given that the Blue Jays are on his limited no-trade list

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: So the Mariners add $7 million in payroll, and they pay another $8 million?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like the Mariners would really care about having Russell Martin in the immediate. Not at all clear Biggio is a markedly better prospect than Stowers

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Mariners shoot it down

9:39	AJ: Thoughts on all the talk that the Phillies are signing Harper tomorrow?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I bet they’re not!

9:39	Kasvot Vaxt: Now that JT Realmuto’s salary should be set by 1pm ET today (unless he goes to trial), does this increase the likelihood he gets moved soon since he’ll have cost certainty?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Shouldn’t make any meaningful difference, barring a huge surprise. Everyone knows what he’ll get paid within about a million or so

9:41	Pachuca: Eric Thames is looking more and more like the odd man out in Milwaukee. What could the Brewers realistically do with him?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny — a year ago, in spring, it didn’t seem like the Brewers had a place for Jesus Aguilar. Then he batted 566 times and made the All-Star Game

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Given how Aguilar regressed down the stretch, it wouldn’t be a bad thing if the Brewers could keep Thames around as insurance. You can see how his season might’ve been derailed by that torn thumb UCL. When he’s been hot, he’s been really hot. Not many other options — on the trade market, Thames would generate low-level interest

9:46	Casual fan: Would Giants pair Smith with Longo to help dump some of that salary? Calhoun and Cozart for Smith and Longo make sense for both teams?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Smith is a contract-year reliever

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The Giants owe Longoria something like another $61.5 million

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Longoria is 33 years old, and he’s coming off an 85 wRC+

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Angels will take their chances with Calhoun and Cozart

9:50	J: Given how saturated the FA 2B market is, is it fair to say the money/prospects the Mets spent on acquiring Cano was a poor allocation of their resources?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it was a great allocation of their resources, but that wasn’t a trade for Robinson Cano. That was a trade for Edwin Diaz

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: The 2B market might be saturated, but if Diaz were a free agent, he’d make a god damned fortune

9:53	cash money : How can the Yankees justify spending only about a third of their revenue on player salaries? I understand the hesitancy of Machado, but Yanks have 1-2 WS in the last two years if they added Verlander, but choose not to to safe a billionaire a few million…

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: It probably goes without saying, but, no, you can’t just take a World Series for granted given one single player addition

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Okay, so, on the one hand, the Yankees are a cash cow. The biggest cash cow in baseball. If they wanted, they could sustain a payroll of like $300 million every season. Yeah, there would be insane overages over time, but, they could pay them! They’re the Yankees!