Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/11/19

9:04

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:04

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : I keep hearing that the NL central is the best division in baseball. I didn’t believe it, but I added up the projected WAR OF every division, and I’ll be danged but sure nuff, it really was the best. But what really blew my mind was the tiny separation in projected WAR between the #1 team and the #5 team in that division–11.5 WAR, barely half of the next best division. Has there ever before been a divisional projection that tight in the FG era?

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Let me say this: it’s too early to perform this kind of analysis, because the offseason still has a long way to go, and our projections right now are just Steamer instead of Steamer and ZiPS

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: And I think what people probably mean is that the NL Central might have five at least decently competitive teams. In the NL East, there should be four competitive teams and the Marlins

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what more the Reds are going to do. I don’t know if the Pirates are going to do anything. But it’ll be fun. The whole NL should be fun — a lot crazier than this year’s upcoming AL

9:07

Pachuca: Do you like Travis Shaw as a potential MVP darkhorse for 2019? K and BB numbers moved in very encouraging directions last year…

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: That is a very dark horse

9:09

Airport Banana: If the Brewers can add an average or better 2B, where does their lineup rank in the NL?

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: It’s a good lineup, but there are a lot of good lineups in the NL, like the Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Reds…

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: With a second baseman, the Brewers might push into the top five. But they’ll still be playing Arcia almost every day. In the NL, it’s a crowded field

9:12

stever20: What are the Dodgers going to do at catcher now that Grandal is gone for sure?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: Feels like Francisco Cervelli is the obvious fit provided the Dodgers are satisfied with his concussion recovery

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: You wonder if someone like Russell Martin would alternatively work. In any case, just a short-term stopgap until one of the kids is ready

9:13

Fangraph’s Lurker: My new plan to pay off my student loans from law school is to convince the white sox that machado and I are close friends. Chances I can get atleast a 200k contract out of that?

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: You’re going to have to create some fake internet portals

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: Can you mirror an Athletic article with an old timestamp? Need an electronic paper trail

9:15

Joe: Steamer predicts -2.2 WAR for Lourdes Gurriel Jr in 2019. To me, that’s insane;  Gurriel tied Tony Perez with an 11-game multi-hit streak last season — a streak snapped only by injury. Am I nuts for being bullish on Gurriel?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: To be clear for everyone, the WAR projection is positive, not negative

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: What I would cite is that, for all the positives, Gurriel also wound up with 59 strikeouts and eight unintentional walks

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: In a small sample, he rated as a strongly negative defensive shortstop

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see anything too terribly wrong with the projection

9:18

Shane DeStefano: What do you see the mets doing with Jeff McNeil now that they have murdered his value at 2B? Are the reports that he is moving to the OF to be believed?

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: I do think the Mets see McNeil as a potential utility player. But with Conforto, Nimmo, Broxton, and Lagares, they don’t need much playing time sopped up in the outfield. And clearly, the infield is crowded right now

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: Something that’s easy to forget is that McNeil has options — even though he slaughtered the minors last season, he could always return, if the roster doesn’t have room

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: Some will come down to Alonso. Some will come down to whether the Mets keep Frazier. Based on the current personnel it’s not easy to get McNeil more than 100-200 plate appearances, but the Mets know better than most teams that you tend to need more depth than you expect

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this is how I would’ve run my offseason in New York, but I’m also a pretty big McNeil fan, and I think he’s ready to be a regular

9:24

mark appel: who will breakout next year

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: About a tenth of the players we write about breaking out in April and May

9:24

Brian Cashman: Which relative, childhood friend, or dog of Manny Machado must I sign to remain competitive with the White Sox and Phillies?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: Take the money you would give to his loved ones, and then, hear me out — give that money to Manny Machado

9:25

Dustin: is it so crazy to think that the brewers could make a real splash and go grab bryce harper? Give him a 4, 5 year opt-out and really try to maximize this current window they have with yelich and cain?

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, on paper, of course you could fit Harper in Milwaukee, but they just can’t possibly compete with other teams’ resources

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: They’re already projected for easily the highest opening-day payroll in club history

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: To say nothing of the challenge of moving pieces around on that roster to accommodate Harper in the first place

9:27

Bort: Tyler Chatwood: is there any hope here? Bob Tewksbury got brought on as their mental skills coach, and his problems seemed like they were mostly located inside his noggin.

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: Chatwood, 2017: 58% strikes
Chatwood, 2018: 56% strikes
MLB average: ~64% strikes

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: There’s definitely hope for anyone that young, with that raw stuff. The Rays just got Tyler Glasnow to find the strike zone. But I wouldn’t be so quick to conclude the problems are mental. Chatwood has never really thrown many strikes, and he’s been at this for years

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to see someone commit to using him somewhat regularly out of the bullpen. Give him a couple months to find his footing. Still shutdown reliever potential

9:31

stever20: Why do you think the postseason this year has impacted free agency more this year than before?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: Do I think that?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: The patterns are basically the same. We’re pretty clearly seeing more and more resources committed to the bullpen

9:33

Mandy is 92% Fresh: As a baseball market, Portland is closest to what current MLB market?

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Pittsburgh?

9:35

Stevil: Russell Martin and Cavan Biggio to Seattle for Jay Bruce, 8 million, and Josh Stowers. Who says no?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: Quite possibly Jay Bruce, given that the Blue Jays are on his limited no-trade list

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: So the Mariners add $7 million in payroll, *and* they pay another $8 million?

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like the Mariners would really care about having Russell Martin in the immediate. Not at all clear Biggio is a markedly better prospect than Stowers

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: Mariners shoot it down

9:39

AJ: Thoughts on all the talk that the Phillies are signing Harper tomorrow?

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: I bet they’re not!

9:39

Kasvot Vaxt: Now that JT Realmuto’s salary should be set by 1pm ET today (unless he goes to trial), does this increase the likelihood he gets moved soon since he’ll have cost certainty?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: Shouldn’t make any meaningful difference, barring a huge surprise. Everyone knows what he’ll get paid within about a million or so

9:41

Pachuca: Eric Thames is looking more and more like the odd man out in Milwaukee. What could the Brewers realistically do with him?

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny — a year ago, in spring, it didn’t seem like the Brewers had a place for Jesus Aguilar. Then he batted 566 times and made the All-Star Game

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Given how Aguilar regressed down the stretch, it wouldn’t be a bad thing if the Brewers could keep Thames around as insurance. You can see how his season might’ve been derailed by that torn thumb UCL. When he’s been hot, he’s been really hot. Not many other options — on the trade market, Thames would generate low-level interest

9:46

Casual fan: Would Giants pair Smith with Longo to help dump some of that salary? Calhoun and Cozart for Smith and Longo make sense for both teams?

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: Smith is a contract-year reliever

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: The Giants owe Longoria something like another $61.5 million

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: Longoria is 33 years old, and he’s coming off an 85 wRC+

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Angels will take their chances with Calhoun and Cozart

9:50

J: Given how saturated the FA 2B market is, is it fair to say the money/prospects the Mets spent on acquiring Cano was a poor allocation of their resources?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it was a great allocation of their resources, but that wasn’t a trade for Robinson Cano. That was a trade for Edwin Diaz

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: The 2B market might be saturated, but if Diaz were a free agent, he’d make a god damned fortune

9:53

cash money : How can the Yankees justify spending only about a third of their revenue on player salaries? I understand the hesitancy of Machado, but Yanks have 1-2 WS in the last two years if they added Verlander, but choose not to to safe a billionaire a few million…

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: It probably goes without saying, but, no, you can’t just take a World Series for granted given one single player addition

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: Okay, so, on the one hand, the Yankees are a cash cow. The biggest cash cow in baseball. If they wanted, they could sustain a payroll of like $300 million every season. Yeah, there would be insane overages over time, but, they could pay them! They’re the Yankees!

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, we don’t know the Yankees’ *actual* revenues, and they invest a whole lot of money that doesn’t go to the on-field personnel. And, very importantly, the Yankees are extremely good. They’re a super team. Spending has hardly held them back; they do almost whatever they want

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: When you have good, young players, it’s actually hard to spend that much. Arbitration prices will increase. Maybe we’ll see some long-term contract extensions. The Yankees are coming out of a transition phase. There’s no excuse for them to ever be bad again

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see where the Yankees are four years from now

10:00

Mandy is 92% Fresh: If you were the Royals and setting aside the minor league system, are there any players on the current roster that you would keep long term to build around?

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: Mondesi

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: Probably Junis

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: Potentially Perez and Merrifield, but I don’t know how long-term we’re talking about

10:02

gilby: With Dipotos plan to limit Kikuchi’s innings where do you think he will end up in terms of WAR.  Is 3 being to optimistic or is that about right?

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: I’d go a little bit lower than that, just because Kikuchi might end up at like 150 innings. But Marco Gonzales just finished at 3.6 in 166.2

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: Relatedly, I’m still waiting for a Kikuchi projection and player page. That’s why he remains absent from the Mariners’ team depth chart

10:03

Hae-Lo Dee: Seattle has cleared a ton of money off the books this winter, and shown a willingness to buy talent for their next window of contention by snagging Kikuchi. Do thing there’s any change they get involved in the Harper/Machado sweepstakes?

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: 0%

10:04

Mandy is 92% Fresh: Are the Twins really the most interesting team in baseball right now?

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: No

10:04

Soup for thought: In your article yesterday about Grandal, you mention the Mets offer and say, “Now, there’s reason to believe that didn’t happen exactly as so. It feels more than a little far-fetched.” What is the inference from that? Is there chatter that the Mets didn’t actually make an offer, or discuss those numbers, or what exactly is to be read into that comment? Just curious!

10:05

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Grandal would’ve turned down such an official offer. My guess is that the conversations did revolve around a big contract, but the Mets never actually put it on the table. This isn’t based on inside information, mind you. But I’m guessing ultimately the Mets walked away

10:07

Jay: In what order do Tatis, Allen, Quantrill, and Paddack debut for the Padres this season?

10:07

Jeff Sullivan: Oof

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll try: Paddack, Tatis, Allen, then Quantrill

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: I think Tatis will be pushed back for service-time reasons. They won’t worry about that so much with pitchers, and they love Paddack. He’s barely even pitched in Double-A but he’s ready now

10:09

Jeff Sullivan: Only reason I might flip Tatis and Paddack is because they’ll be closely monitoring Paddack’s innings, being just a couple years removed from TJ

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: But: 120 strikeouts, seven unintentional walks, in 90 innings

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: lol

10:10

greg: What specifically has changed since the days of Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders that makes it impossible for Kyler Murray to play 2 sports?  Are there legal issues that didn’t exist back then, or have the physical demands changed?

10:12

Jeff Sullivan: Every baseball pitcher now throws 96 miles per hour, and every football player now looks like a Hollywood superhero

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: This is the era of specialization, and just playing one sport is simply too demanding

10:13

DresTheAce: DJ to the Yanks — weird fit eh?

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: Breaking news in the chat!

10:13

thor: What reason do the Yankees have for signing DJ LeMahieu? Is that a shrewd signing for 2 years 24M to be a super utility guy? Does this signing take them out of the Machado sweepstakes unless they trade Andujar?

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: I’m trying to piece this one together on the fly. It’s not very easy!

10:15

Jeff Sullivan: In a lot of ways this looks just like the Mets signing Jed Lowrie yesterday

10:16

Jeff Sullivan: LeMahieu is apparently supposed to play 1B, 2B, and 3B. At first, of course, there’s been Voit/Bird. At second, there’s been Torres. At third, there’s been Andujar

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this kills the Machado pursuit — Andujar is absolutely a trade candidate. But then in that case, you would have Machado, Torres, Tulo, and Gregorius at 2B/SS/3B, so LeMahieu is mostly occupying first

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: For whatever it’s worth, I like LeMahieu’s quiet upside http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-hidden-upside-of-a-normal-free-agen…

10:19

Le Mahieu: Why? Who plays where? Miggy traded? (I think best value would be Stanton to LF, Miggy DH, DJ to 3B, Tulo SS, Gleyber 2B, whoever wins out Voit/Bird 1B, they shift for DJ to play other positions on days off, or when Tulo gets hurt, and Miggy plays 3B on those days).

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: Going to be interesting to me to see whether the Padres bite on Andujar. They need a long-term third baseman and they might believe in his athleticism more than the Yankees do

10:21

Money Mosk: Yes network is reporting LeMahieu to Yankees. Could the angels be a Manny destination at this point? Same agent as pujols.

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to see that, but I’m not convinced the Angels are going to throw around that kind of money. It’s already hard just to see them making a real play for Kimbrel

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: The existence of the Pujols contract doesn’t really help the case

10:22

Mr. Fister: Other than Kiner-Falefa, who are some other guys who have under the radar catcher eligibility that could play regularly?

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: WILLIANS

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: ASTUDILLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

10:22

SEAfahrer: Any news on the Fans Scouting Report release date? Pleeaase

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: Very soon

10:23

KC Royals: Y’all got any more of them stolen base guys?  (As they scratch their necks, a la Chapelle’s Show)

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: Go get Myles Straw!

10:23

Connor Grey: Has Kyler Murray already received his signing bonus from the A’s? I’m confused about the details of his whole situation

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: If Murray goes with football, he has to give all that Oakland money back

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: He presumably knew that when he signed

10:24

Jasper: Does the Lowrie signing pave the way for Realmuto, i.e. a deal involving McNeil and Alonso?

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: I did think about that yesterday, but I don’t think the Mets would do that to Ramos. And you’re not going to give Realmuto *that* many games at first base

10:25

Joe: Have the Marlins overplayed their hand on Realmuto? Seems like a lot of interested teams have moved on

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: They haven’t

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: If anything, Yasmani Grandal got a one-year deal specifically *because* teams interested in Realmuto haven’t moved on

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say it again and again: the Yelich trade happened on January 25. It looks bad now, but it seemed fair at the time

10:26

Mr. Fister: If he impresses in ST, do you see Luzardo breaking camp with the A’s?

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: I do think there’s a real opportunity. Only thing standing in his way is a soft innings cap. A’s might want him to go slow out of the gate

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: And they could use that to justify the usual service-time manipulation, etc

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: But a year ago, before the injury, Puk looked like he had a chance to make the opening rotation. This is the same idea, one season later

10:28

Heat: Do they Rays field a better team with their top 30 prospects than the Marlins do with their 25-man roster? Sure seems that way.

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: Not out of the question!

10:28

Bort: Couldn’t the Yanks still easily move Andujar to first and sign Manny?

10:29

Jeff Sullivan: It is something they could do, yes. But then LeMahieu is getting squeezed. Or, alternatively, Gardner is getting squeezed

10:30

Guest: So DJ and Lowrie just marketed themselves as Marwin without the track record?

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure if it was their idea, or the idea of the suitors. But a good agent would’ve looked at the field of second basemen and concluded that their client would need to do something to stand out

10:31

Jeremy: The Mariners absolutely SHOULD be in on the Machado/Harper market though. Unless they’re holding out for Japanese Mike Trout next offseason.

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: In what world do you think Machado or Harper would even want to play in Seattle, the most isolated baseball city in the game?

10:33

Scotty B: Yes, I agree that “swellopt” is bad. Do you have any suggestions for a more appropriate phrase or portmanteau

10:33

Jeff Sullivan: If we all put our heads together for 15 minutes, we could come up with a hundred superior alternatives. Something along the lines of the double option, or the split option, or whatever you want

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: Two-way option. Something along those lines

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: But I’m afraid the moment has passed. It’s already in the lexicon. One exec told me the other day that he hates “swellopt,” and yet he’d already found himself using it like nine times that one morning

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: Scott Boras’ words are like a god damned tick that burrows into your skin. You better remove it quickly, or else you’re going to get a disease

10:36

Rusty Krusty: With the LeMahieu trade, should the Yankees move Torres to SS? It is where he played during his minor league career.

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: I just don’t know how you do that to Tulo so quickly

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: You have to have at least some amount of superficial integrity as an organization

10:38

BTucks: What has the Jays front office done in the past 2 years that has both seemed like a good move, and worked out?

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: Getting rid of Osuna

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: Not sure he’s a long-term player but it was smart to get Teoscar Hernandez

10:38

Bernie: Would the Brewers be more wise to go into ST with their current projected rotation, or go get Wade Miley for 2/$14m?

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Miley would realistically move the needle

10:39

Tugs: What episode # is the volcano chat?

10:40

belowreplacementaccountname: Do the puzzling LeMahieu/Lowrie signings hurt the Brewers’ chances of grabbing a 2B on the cheap?

10:40

Jeff Sullivan: Not really. They just hurt their chances of getting LeMahieu or Lowrie

10:42

Guest: Baseball Prospectus literally doubles LeMahieu’s career WAR(compared to FG). It will be extremely interesting to see how his numbers play out in a more normal ballpark.

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: Colorado was very good for his BABIP, but it didn’t really do anything for his power. In short, I agree with you. I know multiple teams this offseason looked at LeMahieu and saw a guy one tweak away from a breakout

10:44

brad: Who would the Padres trade for Andujar, whose defense isn’t as bad as people say, he is a .300 30Hr rookie who makes the league minimum, they’d have to give up Tatis Jr with no exception plus more.

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: Among 140 qualified hitters last season, Andujar ranked 20th in batting average, but 81st in OBP. He was one of the worst defensive infielders we have on record

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: That’s not to say he isn’t a good hitter, or that his defense can’t improve. Marcus Semien’s defense improved. But your perspective is a great way to make sure the Padres don’t even give the Yankees the time of day

10:46

Lefty: Would a Will Smith for Schwarber deal make sense for both SF and CHI?

10:47

Jeff Sullivan: I doubt the Cubs have an appetite to give up three years of Schwarber for one year of a great reliever, but it gets interesting if you include Chatwood in the mix

10:47

Nick Mar – Cake is Good: What 2B are left? Asdrubal Cabrera?

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: Josh Harrison among free agents, but then Joe Panik on the trade market

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: At this point potentially Jeff McNeil as well

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: Jedd Gyorko is a maybe

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: Howie Kendrick is a backup now

10:50

thor: I would be curious to see DJ’s spray chart and how his hits play in Yankees stadium with his extreme opposite field tendencies.. perhaps they see him hitting 15+ hr’s with the short porch? Alongside generally excellent defensive utility, a 3+ War season for 12M is quite a bargain.

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: That’s one fun thing about this — LeMahieu could hit for more power without even really changing anything

10:52

Jeff Sullivan: You know who LeMahieu hits an awful lot like? Derek Jeter

10:53

Tugs: How much better would Panik be than Perez/Saladino/Dubon for the Brewers at 2B (assuming that he’s packaged with Bumgarner) in a deal of sorts.

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: Not a huge improvement, but Panik has two years of club control and while he has eight career homers in San Francisco, he has 25 on the road. Milwaukee would be a much more suitable environment

10:54

Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Could DJ be a mid season trade candidate for NYY once Didi comes back?

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: Possible but unlikely

10:55

Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Jeff has a Williams Astudillo fetish

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a fetish because I wouldn’t describe it as abnormal

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: For anyone who has observed Astudillo, it is very normal

10:56

Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Could Gattis be a target for LAD?

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: I’d be surprised, since he didn’t catch last season

10:57

Daniel: With regards to a potential lockout, do you know why the players can’t just do it now?  Why do they have to wait until the end of a CBA?

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know all the ins and outs of it but I’m pretty sure you can’t begin a work stoppage until the existing CBA has expired

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: Presumably, an existing CBA mandates that everyone do what they’re supposed to be doing

10:59

Guest: Oakland not getting a compensatory pick for murray going to NFL is dumb

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like they didn’t know the risk they were taking

10:59

Stevil: The biggest surprise this offseason for you is…

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: This is stupid but I still can’t get past Lance Lynn getting $30 million from the Rangers of all teams

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: The Rangers?!

11:00

steve: Looking to move. Portland or Seattle?

11:00

Jeff Sullivan: Portland

11:00

Hmm…: What value could Yankees get for Andujar and a throw-in like a Bird? Middling prospects or something legit?

11:00

Jeff Sullivan: Big-time return. Not middling prospects at all. Bird is disappointing but still cheap, and Andujar just had a strong rookie season

11:01

Guest: Maybe Mets make a move for Will Smith and Bumgarner & move McNeill

11:01

Jeff Sullivan: The door is open!

11:01

Dan: lemahieu and murphy got the exact same 2yr/24m deal. murphy is obviously older, but who would you rather have?

11:01

Jeff Sullivan: LeMahieu

11:01

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:02

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/11/19 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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