Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/18/19

January 18, 2019

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05	Mookie Butts: Why are the Yankees trying to win so much? It feels like a personal attack.

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: It should feel like a personal attack

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Do you remember what happened in 2018

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Yankees liked that very much

9:06	Guest: For some reason folding Ottavino into the Yankees Depth Chart has the effect of lowering their RP WAR from 6.4 to 6.2. Pretty funny in the context of your article

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I saw that too, and it’s amusing

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: But of course, one thing the depth charts struggle to account for is…depth. Realistically Ottavino doesn’t move the Yankees’ ceiling very much, but he raises the floor of bullpen performance. One more great reliever who’d have to have something go wrong for the group to not be a strength

9:07	cheapskate drifter: i forwarded your ottavino piece to my yankee coworker. he replied back “great article”. so there’s that.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: People like when articles flatter their teams

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: All affection is fleeting and conditional

9:08	TomBruno23: Who takes more PAs in RF for STL this season: Fowler, Jose Martinez or Tyler O’Neill?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I’m going to say Martinez. Fowler will get his chances but Martinez is too good of a hitter to sit very often and I’m no longer certain he gets traded

9:09	Toshi: Hi Jeff, thank you for the chat. If Colon faces Ichiro next season, their combined ages will be 90yrs old plus. Would this be the oldest matchup ever in MLB?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, because Satchel Paige threw three innings in the majors at the age of 58. But that’s kind of cheating

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s a very relevant blog entry from 2012! http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/03/oldest-batter-vs-pitcher-matchups…

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Julio Franco vs. Roger Clemens, 2007: 93 combined years old

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I’m afraid Colon vs. Ichiro still wouldn’t get there, not in 2019

9:12	BJOGC: Do you remember when teams wouldn’t stop giving Brett Anderson tens of millions of dollars per year? I looked at his player page, in his one good year, he was a 4FIP 7k/9 guy. What was up with that?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Anderson arrived on the scene right around when analysts were in love with strikeouts and grounders. It was hard to find pitchers who could reliably generate both, and so Anderson stood out. He…hasn’t fulfilled much of his promise ever since

9:14	Jason: How are you going to celebrate the Hall of Fame induction of the greatest DH of all-time?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll experience a brief moment of joy and relief, but then the moment will pass, because as far as Cooperstown is concerned, I don’t give a shit. They’ve ruined it for me

9:15	stever20: which team do you give the edge to right now in the AL East? Boston or the Yankees….

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Yankees

9:15	JM: Padres opening day 3rd baseman is….

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Not in the organization right now

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: There was that rumor the other day that connected them to Kluber so that they could try to get Senzel. Hard to see that actually happening but they’re presumably aiming high. Along similar lines, you wonder if they might try for Riley from the Braves

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think they just want a stopgap, but that might be what they have to settle for

9:19	LAA fan: Would someone like Patrick Sandoval be enough to get Gray from NYY?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Only a few months ago, Sandoval was part of the return for a half-season of Martin Maldonado. Sonny Gray is more desirable than Martin Maldonado

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: It would take more, in other words. Lots of teams sniffing around

9:20	Raysfaninminnesota: Do you still see the Rays making a big move before Spring Training? JTR, Encarnacion, Bumgarner, LeClerc, etc?

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: I no longer think it’s likely, although I do believe Realmuto remains an option. But it would be unlike Tampa Bay to invest heavily in a two-year player. The team is good, now, and it’s deep, now. It also happens to be hilariously cheap. Could use another top-tier bullpen arm, but I think moving forward you just have to hope that whatever they’re saving now gets reinvested as the young team gets a little older and a little more expensive in the future

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Rays intended to have such a low current payroll. But there’s no sense spending for spending’s sake when the roster is already so talented and they weren’t able to land Goldschmidt, Cruz, etc.

9:23	Craig: Is the Angels hope that Allen is only needed for 1 year, and Keynan Middleton takes the reins of closer in 2020? Or is projecting injured closers that far out too much of a fool’s errand?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: Eppler and the Angels seem to prefer to avoid big reliever contracts. And you can see the sense of it, given how often big reliever contracts go off the rails. Good relievers are, at least in theory, the easiest players to develop, and they probably figure they have enough live arms that, a year from now, someone will emerge

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Justin Anderson will learn how to throw more strikes

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: On paper, the Angels would’ve been a great destination for Craig Kimbrel, but I have no idea what sort of terms Kimbrel would accept

9:25	Ben: Whose Braves’ opening day RF? Brantley seemed perfect fit. They don’t wanna lose draft pick to sign Pollock. Jones/Cargo/Markakis seem fairly underwhelming, as does Duvall. Maybe they’re just gonna let Acuna & Inciarte roam a 2 man outfield.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I think of Markakis as the favorite, but I also read that Wil Myers is returning to the outfield, which means the Padres have even more of an OF surplus. There’s some kind of trade there to be made

9:27	Scherzers_Blue_Eye: Sleeper breakout candidate: Erick Fedde–lots of soft contact, lots of groundballs, decent K rate. Cut walks and homers. Wishful thinking?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: One thing about Fedde: last year he had a K-BB% of 17% the first time through. After that, it dropped to 7%. I know he’s spent the offseason trying to bulk up to improve his durability

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Even in Triple-A, he threw a below-average rate of strikes. He’s only a decent bat-misser, and I don’t put a lot of stock in weak-contact statistics. Fedde is interesting because he has a big repertoire and he’s in his mid-20s, but I don’t see another breakout indicator at the moment

9:32

Ham Porter: Why is Touki Touissant listed pitching 129 innings in 2019, ahead of Mike Soroka (18 IP) on the FG depth charts? All stats and opinions I am finding suggests that Soroka is the superior pitcher and should be ahead of Touki? And from all accounts Soroka’s shoulder should be recovered by ST?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not anymore!

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: (It’ll take a little while for the public-facing depth charts to reflect the adjustment)

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I’m in charge of all of the depth charts, for everybody, so sometimes things inevitably slip through the cracks. Let me know when you see changes that ought to be made

9:34	Worried ATL Fan: I mean, they have to make another move, right? Most projections have them at 84 – 85 wins, which doesn’t seem enough to win that division.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Of course, last year, we had them projected at 73 wins. They won that division!

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: But they will, at the very least, add a corner outfielder

9:35	Pete In Dublin: Hello Jeff. Quick question arising from the last EW: How tall are you?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I am 6’5 but blogging for the last 15 years has left me with lousy standing posture

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Blogger back

9:36	Raysfaninminnesota: Best Rays prospect no one is talking enough about?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: It’s either Brandon Lowe or Nate Lowe. They both destroyed the minor leagues in 2018, and they’re ready to make major-league impacts. Those last names, incidentally, have different pronunciations for some reason

9:39	Spaceman: Angels spent more than 30M$ on one year contracts to fill some holes. I think they would have been better if instead they would have sign Machado long term and hope for the best with what they had, plus a few “free” addition. Do you agree?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Does Machado have any interest in playing for the Angels?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Would Machado have been willing and ready to sign with the Angels earlier in the offseason?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: How would the Angels fit it in around the Pujols contract, and the Upton contract, and what they’re hoping is going to be a Trout contract?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Any Trout contract is going to be the biggest in baseball history

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know much about the Angels’ finances and I don’t have all the answers, but I don’t think they’re wrong for trying to win around short-term additions. They’re going to need to be as flexible as possible if they want to retain one of the best players in history

9:42	Edward: Are the Brewers really not going to add a 2B? If they do add one, who makes the most sense?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ll add one, and I think he will be an unremarkable player

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Although it would be interesting to know the state of the Marwin market — he’d double as shortstop insurance, which they need

9:43	Big Joe Mufferaw: Yankees are going to strike out every batter in 2018

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: …right up until Sabathia’s turn in the rotation

9:44	Mike: Hi Jeff! How likely are the phillies to be a serious playoff team without harper or machado? They don’t seem very good. How much closer does harp/manny get them?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Right now I think the Phillies are a handful of games out of the playoff mix. Add one of those players and they’re at least in position to contend strongly for the wild card. Of course, if they were to miss on Harper/Machado, they could still make other additions. But I expect them to end up with one of these two players

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: If public reports are at all close to true, the Phillies should be able to outspend the White Sox on Machado. As for Harper, I have no idea where the Nationals are anymore

9:48	Bort: Is there any way the Red Sox could pry Realmuto from the Marlins? Maybe a three-way deal involving Bradley?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Only realistic thing I could see would depend on the Marlins holding Rafael Devers in very high esteem

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Young, talented, controllable, major-league player going the other way. The Red Sox obviously don’t have the minor-league firepower

9:50	Andrew: We’ve seen reports of both the Mariners and Giants in on Sonny Gray. Does he make sense for a “step back” team like those two?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Clearly depends on the price, but I’m sure they think they might be able to get Gray in a depressed market and then flip him in July if he rebounds in a softer environment

9:51	torg: Is Boston seriously going into the season with no major bullpen adds?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Not a big fan of Erasmo Ramirez?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll do something. I still expect them to be the last team in contact with Kimbrel. But maybe they’ll take a one-year chance on Greg Holland and then revisit around the deadline. The bullpen they start with doesn’t have to be the bullpen they finish with

9:54	Chapultsi: Will projection systems underrate the Brewers again? By how much?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, ~5 games

9:54	padres 2019ish: Will anyone from fangraphs be at the SLOAN conference? A meetup would be swell

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t answer for everyone, but our staff spring-training trip is only a few days after that, so the travel probably wouldn’t work in any practical way

9:55	Ronnie: If someone swooped in with 3/120 for Machado to establish a new record AAV would that get it done at this point?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Not yet, but ask again in a month and a half

9:56	Dorsal Finley: What is the Mariners’ most plausible pathway to hitting their supposed 2021 competition time frame?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Crawford develops into a good regular shortstop, they hit on most of the pitching prospects they acquired, and Kelenic continues his rapid development

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it looks good for them, but it’s not a terrible long-term picture like it used to be

9:59	Raysfaninminnesota: Even among Rays fans, Austin Meadows seems forgotten. The prospect shine has worn off, but he’s slated to be an Opening Day starter in the OF. Should Rays fans be more excited for him on the big league club?