Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/19/18

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Congratulations to the Red Sox, who are very good

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: So long to the Astros, who were very good

9:07

Phil: Best defeat over the past two days: POSTSEASON NARRATIVES.

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if it’s some kind of contrarian instinct or what, but I always, without fail, root for the players to turn those stories upside down. Very happy for David Price

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: And the other guy, too. But the other guy’s had a bunch of great playoff starts already

9:08

Nelson: Does it feel nice when you write article, a commenter says that the article sucks and then that comment get voted down a bazillion times?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Usually don’t see those kinds of numbers!

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: But it was the perfect blend of ingredients — playoff game, Red Sox involved, Joe West involved, and I actually expressed an opinion

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll tell you what felt nice: finishing that post. Because it meant I could go to bed

9:11

David: I know you’ve been trying to figure out what to do with the Padres OF depth but have you thought about Myers? What kind of value does he have left? Is there a team out there that thinks they can finally be the ones to crack that code?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: Finally, a Padres question in October

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: Hard to imagine that this is an offseason where Wil Myers and his contract get moved. Didn’t impress in 2018 and he missed so much time due to injury. I’m not convinced even the Padres know exactly how this is going to play out, but I think Myers is likely to stick around

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: I’d love to know their internal valuations on Myers at third base. DRS didn’t hate it, UZR *did* hate it, and the sample was tiny anyhow

9:14

Daniel: Will the new emphasis on versatility lead to baseball teams not grinding their players down over the course of 162? It’s no big deal for NBA teams to sit their stars (to the point that the league yells at them) but it seems like in baseball, if you’re not playing at least 150, you’re some sort of disappointment.

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: over the past 20 years, the median season has had about 72 players appearing in at least 150 games

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: The two seasons with the highest totals: 2015 and 2016

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: The three seasons with the lowest totals: 2014, 2017, and 2018

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Pretty hard to know what to make of that!

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: Now, I think in the average basketball game, there’s more of a physical toll than during the average baseball game. At least for non-pitchers. So there’s a greater benefit to sitting a game out

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: Baseball teams are definitely increasingly aware of the value of rest, though. The 162-game player-season is going to die

9:19

stever20: I think it’s interesting a lot has been made about the Dodgers struggles vs LHP- but looking at the season stats- the Red Sox struggled even more.  Could be a lot of low scoring games in the World Series with at least 5 lefty starters- and a 6th is possible for Boston with Rodriguez.

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: Looking at wRC+ for non-pitchers, the Dodgers ranked sixth in baseball against left-handed pitchers

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: That’s pretty good

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Plus they added dudes like Machado and Freese midseason

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: The Red Sox finished much worse, but then again, here are some right-handed hitters of theirs: J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Steve Pearce

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: I also feel obligated to point out the Dodgers haven’t made the World Series yet

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: As the Red Sox go though, they’re going to have to sit a good player in the NL ballpark. Too bad!

9:24

APODionysus: One of my low key favorite moments from last nights clincher: Mookie making another jumping catch at the wall…. and all the fans in the standings CLEARLY raising their hands away like “nope no controversy this time”. Made me laugh.

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: That was great

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: It’s one thing to joke with your friends that that’s how you would react in the same position, but it’s quite another for so many people to respond like that in the heat of the moment

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: Rewired instincts in the span of 24 hours!

9:26

Bruce: …waitng for Fangraphs to tell me what David Price “figured out” while in the bullpen at the end of game 5

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: At 43%, David Price threw the highest rate of changeups in a game in his major-league career

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: That changeup yielded 12 swings and misses

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not as simple as that — it’s never as simple as that — but the changeup was the featured pitch, and Price says he tweaked his grip somehow the day before

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: Nothing real meaningful in terms of changes in movement or velocity, but he had that pitch locked in from the get-go

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: Also, and this is important: David Price is an excellent starting pitcher

9:29

Nicky: What kind of trade value does Greinke have? Maybe no  surplus value with his contract but still very effective on the mound…

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: He’s got almost $100 million coming to him over the next three years, plus a $2-million bonus if he’s traded. Granted, some of that money is deferred for a few years

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: The upside: Greinke is still good, and he seems durable. Plus my hunch is that he’s a good influence

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: I suspect the consensus is also that he’s likely to age pretty well

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: I think Greinke still has slightly positive trade value. The shorter-term commitment helps. But there’s a limited market of teams that could absorb that kind of single-player commitment. Obviously, if Arizona paid him down a little bit, moving him would get easier

9:32

Russell: Off the teams that made the postseason this year who do you think will struggle most next year to get there again?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: It feels like it’s almost cheating to point to the Rockies

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s going to be tough for the Braves, assuming the Phillies spend and assuming the Nationals don’t go quietly

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: The A’s aren’t likely to run away with WC2

9:34

Lilith: Most likely 90-loss team from this year to get into the playoffs in 2019?

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: Oof

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: They all suck!

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: Guess I’ll go with the Padres. You can never count out A.J. Preller to try to act aggressive

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: The Reds almost have enough of the ingredients, but I still just don’t trust them to make the most of their resources

9:36

Bob Pollard’s No Hitter: With the Cards essentially saying/without saying they’re looking for a LH power hitter that either fits 3B or RF and failing a Bryce Harper sign, is Gallo someone they would look at?  Team control, 24, led in barrels, 2nd in Avg EV, some positional versatility despite his best wishes, etc.  Do you think there is possibly more in there w/r/t bat to ball skills or is he what he is at this point?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure the Cardinals would want to double up on Tyler O’Neill, if that makes sense

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: And with Gallo still having four years of control, I think the Rangers remain inclined to keep him and watch for further upside

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: Nothing here is impossible and Gallo is a better defender than many people think, but I don’t see a perfect match

9:40

Weenie: You wrote two articles earlier about the Mariners’ pace to be the luckiest W/L team in recent baseball history. How did they finish in regards to that?

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have all the data in front of me, but it doesn’t look like they finished in first — more like top-five or top-ten all time

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners finished 12 wins better than their Pythagorean record

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: The same was true of the 2008 Angels

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners also finished eight wins better than their BaseRuns record, although the Red Sox wound up at +9!

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners’ magic was spoiled by a very normal-looking month of September

9:44

CarlC: If the “opener” lowers salaries for SPs and old free agents arent getting good offers anymore, will payrolls eventually go down, or just shift around so  megastars and good bullpen pieces make more than before?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Now, for one thing, the opener is still very new and not particularly widespread. Far too early for the opener to have any real effect on the market. I mean, it’s pretty much exclusive to the Rays in terms of longer-term implementation, and how often were the Rays spending money on starting pitchers anyway?

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: If the opener does continue to spread, then certainly you would expect the people who used to be back-of-the-rotation starters to earn less. It seems like it would follow that resources would be poured more heavily into the bullpen and the bulk guys

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: (Those bulk guys might turn out to be the very starters who are no longer starting)

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: No matter what, one thing is almost undeniably true: the free-agent market is changing. It’s not going back. Teams know more than ever. So the players need to negotiate more money at the start of careers. The league minimum needs to be much higher, at the very least

9:51

Lunar verLander: You think T-Mobile (or whoever is doing the donations for every HR hit) donated money on the controversial HR on Wednesday night?

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Not a chance!

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: You’re expecting corporate charity?

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: There was no home run. Ergo, there is no money

9:53

Matt O: I’m a Red Sox fan, so this was a good week.  Highly entertaining series, and Game 4 was one for the ages.  Though I’m pretty sure that this postseason Kimbrel has taken years off my life.

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: I’m happy for the Red Sox, but tremendously disappointed that this series, of all series, couldn’t go seven

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: You almost never see a matchup between teams this good. We deserved better than a 4-to-1 conclusion

9:56

Cave Dameron: Is getting picked off factored into the baserunning metrics? I didn’t know if it counted as a caught stealing.

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: So, on the one hand, it seems like it would have to be counted, right? It’s tracked. It’s all right there. It’s an obvious negative

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, the baserunning metrics are complicated and I don’t know what the formulas are

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: Tommy Pham was 15-for-22 stealing bases. He finished with a wSB of -0.2. He was picked off five times

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: Jose Iglesias was 15-for-21 stealing bases. He finished with a wSB of +0.3. He was picked off zero times

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: It would appear that, if pickoffs are counted, they must be counted in UBR

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: Are they in there? I’m not sure!

10:02

Jeff Sullivan: Here’s our UBR primer. Don’t see pick-offs in there https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ultimate-base-running-primer/

10:02

Jeff Sullivan: But it’s an MGL statistic, so it’s a question best asked of him

10:03

Lunar verLander: I don’t watch a lot of NL games; when pitchers reach base, do they talk with the first basemen as much as when hitters reach first base? I’d imagine that hitters on opposing teams would be friendlier than pitchers would be.

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: I can genuinely say I’ve never thought about this before

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: And now I’m going to be watching for it

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: Have to go to the archives to see how talkative Kershaw was after drawing his walks!

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers might be inclined to be *more* talkative since they’re far less likely to have to do actual strategic baserunning

10:05

Lilith: What would you guess is going to be the next market inefficiency that some team taps into (in team building, not in-game strategy like the opener), to build a contender on the cheap?

10:06

Jeff Sullivan: This is just a guess, but I wonder if we’re going to cycle back to defense again, now that in theory teams can design better defensive metrics than ever with the Statcast outputs

10:06

Jeff Sullivan: Other than that, I do think it’s sort of related to the opener — teams short on pitching might opt to forego traditional rotations entirely and focus on just cycling through a bunch of live arms who can throw for 2-3 innings. A decent pitching staff could emerge out of nothing

10:07

Jeff Sullivan: Opportunity there for the Orioles to try it out. Ditto the Royals. I mean, they’re not going to contend any time soon, but they don’t need to try to develop five starters if they don’t want to

10:07

Seff Jullivan: If the Dodgers win today, has the NLCS MVP already been chosen?

10:07

Jeff Sullivan: No?

10:08

Anthony: How confident are you in Kimbrel’s ability to bounce back? The stuff still seems ok, but his command right now really sucks.

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: Kimbrel made a little mechanical tweak between G4 and G5 appearances — he lowered his hands in his set position, because it was suggested he was tipping his pitches

10:09

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if he actually WAS tipping his pitches; I didn’t have enough time this morning to really dig into the video. And I doubt that would be everything anyway

10:09

Jeff Sullivan: But a big part of what’s seemed like bad command has been hitters just not swinging at his breaking ball. Usually, they’re happy to chase that pitch. It just wasn’t happening, outside of that one Giancarlo Stanton strikeout

10:09

Jeff Sullivan: As long as Kimbrel is throwing 98, I think he’s the best reliever the Red Sox have. And I like Matt Barnes

10:11

Matt: A lot has already been discussed about CHC’s need to revamp their offense this offseason, which I think we can all agree with. Do you think it’s possible that , despite pretty good SP depth heading into next year, they may look to rejigger their rotation a bit? They seem to have quite a few LHPs with similar repertoires/styles. Could Q be a valuable trade piece to help solve some of their offensive issues?

10:12

Jeff Sullivan: Quintana still has positive trade value, with two club-option years left, but statistically it does seem like his command has gone backwards and there’s less and less separating him from where, say, Jake Odorizzi was a year ago

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: Some of that might’ve been the fault of the Cubs’ catchers, but Quintana’s stock is down, even after a second half where he lowered his walk rate

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: And the Cubs don’t have *that* much rotation depth to toy with. Don’t think Quintana is untouchable, but he’s not an obvious player to move

10:14

rhendricks: Has Machado’s antics hurt his stock any?

10:15

Jeff Sullivan: I almost started mass-texting this very question to front-office people, but then I didn’t, because, no

10:16

Jeff Sullivan: There are so few superstars in the game. This one is going to get paid, just like the other ones

10:16

Jeff Sullivan: Alex Rodriguez was never hurting for money

10:17

Jeff Sullivan: Whoever signs Machado will simply convince themselves he’s still growing up

10:17

Jeff Sullivan: And, I mean, he’s 26. Still young! Lots of growing up to do

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: Think of it this way: if Machado has like four or five serious free-agent contenders, the team likely to make the biggest offer — and therefore the most compelling offer — will be the team least concerned about his occasional behavior

10:19

Whitty: Does a Ken Giles happen to Kimbrel if he struggles 1 more game?

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox don’t have the same depth to turn to

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: And yesterday Kimbrel looked all right

10:20

Kyle: The Pirates trade for Chris Archer seemed to represent a major turning point for management in that they finally made a splash move that was missing during their window of 2013-15. Do you see them being surprisingly aggressive in the free agent market this offseason?

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: No

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: I would imagine that, right now, the Pirates feel a collective sense of regret

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: I know it was supposed to be a statement move, and I’m sure they’re still happy to have Chris Archer, but, boy, that looks like an awful overpay already

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: The worst thing they could do is double down on it

10:22

stever20: is it me, or does it seem like guys starting on 3 days rest have done much better this playoffs than in recent past?

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: Foltynewicz wasn’t that good

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: It’s Freeland and Price

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: That’s it, not counting guys who’ve started just a day or two after making a relief appearance

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: Freeland was good and Price was good, but this is very little information

10:25

Ryan Freel: With rumors McCullers may be out for 2019, thoughts on the Astros bullpen/tandeming a couple rotation spots next year with Peacock/McHugh/Josh James/Framber Valdez/other pretty good young options?

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: Here’s an article about McCullers, for anyone wondering https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/mccullers-altuve-may-face-offseason-su…

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: “McCullers was coy when asked about a report stating he was pitching through a tear of his ulnar collateral ligament and was headed for Tommy John surgery, which would put him out for all of 2019.”

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: So, we don’t know what’s going on there. McCullers was pretty obviously hurt

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: I think your idea is a likely outcome. Would help the Astros to get the most out of their pitchers while limiting their total innings

10:28

Lou: Any chance those Crawford boxes ever get scaled back?  That Devers HR is an out at all but 2 ballparks.

10:29

Jeff Sullivan: Two things. First of all, overall, Minute Maid Park is almost home-run neutral

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Second of all, Devers hit the ball 101.5 miles per hour, with a launch angle of 38 degrees. Similar batted balls have gone for homers about 31% of the time

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: Not great, but not a total joke. We’ve seen plenty of sillier home runs

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the boxes get scaled back. They’re just a part of it, like the Green Monster. Everyone knows what can happen on a fly ball to left in Houston. You just try to pitch around them

10:32

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Who has the better life? Tom Brady or Justin Verlander? Tom has Gisele, 5 rings but plays a more physical demanding sport with less money.  Justin has Kate Upton, one ring, but makes a lot more money in a less physically demanding game. Can’t say both!

10:33

Jeff Sullivan: Who has the better life could only be measured by understanding how happy Brady and Verlander are

10:33

Jeff Sullivan: We have absolutely no idea how happy Brady and Verlander are

10:33

Jeff Sullivan: We certainly can’t guess based on spouses and professional accomplishments

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: How do Tom Brady and Justin Verlander feel in the 30 seconds between when they close their eyes and when they fall asleep?

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: Verlander, at least, doesn’t have the thought of potential brain damage lingering in the back of his mind

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: But we all die

10:35

Seff Jullivan: Do you realize that these chats will be my life’s blood this winter.  Does that responsibility weight heavy on your shoulders?

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: No

10:36

Stuafoo: A vegan said to me, people who sell meat are disgusting. I said back, well people who sell fruit are grocer.

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: Thank you, Stuafoo

10:36

tommy lasagna, sr.: can we please move all fans about ten feet back from all sides of the field of play?  there is no way to stop these idiots from reaching for baseballs.

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: Well, as Travis wrote a while back, modern stadiums are already moving fans further and further from the field of play. If anything, that’s a trend we should want to reverse

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: But it does seem like some care could be taken around the boundaries. You don’t need that wide of a buffer between the field and the stands to make sure that fans can’t interfere

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: Arms can be only so long

10:38

Derek: Both LCS have been awesome. Even the Red Sox-Astros was way more tense and competitive than a 4-1 series would imply. I feel like we as a baseball-watching community have been greatly spoiled the last few years. (Despite the best efforts of some “baseball grumps” to convince us otherwise.)

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, this year’s LDS round blew

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: But yeah, this round has been fun, and I’d rather have a fun LCS round than a fun LDS round where there’s too much happening and stories get lost

10:40

Jeff Sullivan: And then, the last two World Series have gone seven games. Seven games! What luck

10:40

Jeff Sullivan: The World Series should never conclude with a sweep

10:40

Michael: Are the Dodgers happy to see the Red Sox make it past the Astros, or are they dismayed that they’re potentially playing a team that made handy work of the best team in baseball?

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers are probably thinking a lot about the Brewers right now

10:41

Stuafoo: What would a good return be for Paxton?

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: Two young major-league-ready players and a third player who’s a decent prospect of his own right

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: You can’t hold the market to the standard of the Chris Archer trade, but even though Paxton has less club control, he seems like he’s the better pitcher

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t surprise me if the Brewers start placing calls in a few weeks to gauge the Mariners’ direction

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: Same with the Braves

10:43

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: This never happens, but we have to give Joe West props for making the right call as well as having an excellent day behind the plate.  He’s an ass, but he’s a good ass. (Wait…that doesn’t sound right)

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: Joe West has been more good than bad

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: It’s perfectly fair to observe that players don’t care for him much, but that doesn’t mean that every single thing he’s involved in is an umpshow

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: People love to rip on Joe West and people love to rip on Angel Hernandez, and West and Hernandez *do* have histories of getting in the way of good baseball, but that doesn’t mean that West and Hernandez are constantly screwing up

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: Like, the other day, when Hernandez had three plays at first overturned by replay? That’s a horrible look, and, indeed, one of those plays seemed like a bad call on its face. But the other two were impossible! They were just bad luck. They’re why replay exists

10:46

Yankees fans: “Worst” 100 win season ever, at least from the fans’ perspective? Not that Yankees fans inspire pity!

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: In 1993, the Giants finished 103-59, and they didn’t make the playoffs, because that was before the wild-card era

10:47

Jeff Sullivan: The Giants fell out of a first-place tie on the last day of the season

10:47

Jeff Sullivan: As late as August 11, they had a nine-game division lead

10:47

Jeff Sullivan: That was a bad one

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: But at least they didn’t lose in October to the Red Sox

10:48

Anthony: Grandal or Barnes?

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: Grandal from the outside perspective, without any inside information. Dave Roberts knows more than I do

10:48

ADDISON & CLARK: Do you see The Astros resigning either Charlie Morton Or Dallas?

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: I think Morton is more likely, since he could be happy to settle for a one-year contract

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: He seems to be very happy there

10:49

Brian: Why do baseball uniforms still require belts?

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: It makes them into more dignified pajamas

10:50

Jay: The year is 2030. Postseason games now average 6 hours. An inning. Joe Buck is the first commentator to have a statcast implant in his head for realtime commentary. Roboumps last missed a call 4 years ago. John Smoltz is still angery

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: The year is 2030. Postseason games now average 3 hours. Tempo has been improved by electronic pitcher/catcher communication and automated strike zones. The seas have swallowed Florida

10:52

Trent: If the Diamondbacks rebuild, do you think the Rockies are more likely to try to compete in 2019?  The Rockies seem to be in a position similar to Arizona, since they too have one more year of their superstar and enough talent to potentially compete, but also obvious roster holes and large contracts that could hamper their off-season plans.  Arizona taking themselves out of contention, though, would seem to help open up the NL Wild Card race for Colorado.

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Rockies are going to take a deliberate step back. I don’t think they would no matter what the Diamondbacks do. If they’re smart, they have a sense that the Padres are coming, and they’re coming soon. Still lots of talent under club control in Colorado. They can’t give up on a competitive season before it starts

10:53

Brian CashGod: A lot of baseball writers are OK with Price finally winning a playoff game because now they get to indulge on histrionics on Manny Machado playing too hard, yet also not hard enough

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, it’s not like Manny Machado *didn’t* pull an asshole maneuver

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not the biggest deal in the world, but Machado did it, and he did it alone. Just like his slide where he grabbed Orlando Arcia. These aren’t happening by accident

10:54

Bill: The “Post Counts” on the Fangraphs blog roll indicate that Carson Cistulli is within 100 of all-time leader Dave Cameron. Will there be a ceremony of some kind when and if Cistulli breaks the record?

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: No

10:55

matt: hey jeff, you follow hockey right? are you up to date on hockey analytics or have you ever played around with them? in some cases they are very similar to baseball and i was just wondering if you have ever explored working with them

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t. I think I’ve said this before, but I’m kind of intentionally stupid about hockey, because I don’t want to overthink it the way I do baseball. Hockey is my emotional outlet. I don’t want it to become another statistical thought exercise

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: I have to say, sometimes it’s fun to be ignorant

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: You can talk yourself into believing almost anything

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: I fully understand that, on the larger scale, this is the very problem with society

10:56

Xam: The Rockies need bats. The Padres could use a top starter. Would a trade of Jon Gray for one of the Pads outfielders (maybe even Wil Myers) make sense?

10:57

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think the Rockies would be interested in moving Gray at all

10:57

Preston: If Harper lands with Chicago, do the Cubs trade one of their outfielders?  And would NL teams be interested in Schwarber?  His defensive metrics are solid, after all, despite popular sentiment that he should be a DH.

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: Schwarber still isn’t a guy with very good range. He finished at -9 Statcast outs above average. His defensive numbers were kept up because of his arm, and his arm *is* good, but it’s not always going to be that valuable. He’s still mostly an AL player

10:58

Langston: Where will JT Realmuto be playing this year?

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: Tampa Bay has to be the current dark horse

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: Astros and Dodgers would also make sense

11:00

Jeff Sullivan: The Brewers would make their own sense, as well, so I should include them

11:00

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with the Astros

11:01

lee : what is the value of realmuto ?

11:01

Jeff Sullivan: Very high

11:02

Jeff Sullivan: Two years of club control, top-five catcher

11:02

Jeff Sullivan: Two big-league pieces

11:02

Jeff Sullivan: At least one of whom has a high ceiling

11:04

Nick: What kind of a deal do you imagine free agent Andrew Miller will get?  He was amazing from 2014-2017, but was often hurt and not very effective when healthy in 2018, and is now 33.

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he had such poor timing. He clearly didn’t finish well and he didn’t look like himself in the playoffs. Not sure what kind of medical appointments he’ll have scheduled for the winter

11:05

Jeff Sullivan: I could see something like a high salary for 2019 with a 2020 vesting option that has its own matching high salary

11:05

Jeff Sullivan: Mayyyyyyybe he gets two guaranteed years and a third-year vesting option that’s based on innings

11:05

Jeff Sullivan: A lot will depend on his physicals

11:06

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:06

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/19/18 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Joe West is the umpiring equivalent of Alex Rodriguez. Very few like them or respect them but both of them have been among the best at doing what they have done. There is a reason we see Joe West in so many big moments, because he is there! He is there because he grades out as an outstanding umpire, especially on balls and strikes. He has made some of the most important calls in the history of the game. He was the crew chief in the 2004 ALCS and was instrumental in overturning two egregious mistakes, first in Game 4 when Jim Joyce couldn’t see that Bellhorn’s long drive hit a fan at least two feet above the fence and, of course, the play that will live in infamy, ARod’s slapping the ball out of Bronson Arroyo’s glove. With due respect to Randy Marsh he was blocked but it took Joe West to stand up and get both calls changed. This was almost unheard of at the time and helped lead to instant replay.