Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/26/18

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:08	Dylan: What do you make of Brodie Van Wagenen being the frontrunner for Met GM? Is this a good idea or is the lack of experience too much to overcome?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Let me put it this way: I am excited by the prospect of a team making such an outside-the-box hire. But if I were a Mets fan, I’d prefer to have Bloom, because I wouldn’t want my team to be an experiment

9:09	Elwood: Are you still watching the Senators this year? As an Avalanche fan that went through 16-17 I can tell you I’ve never learned more from a season.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: They haven’t been terrible yet!

9:09	Chele: Has anyone ever looked into whether or not a FA can actually make himself money in the playoffs? (I’m not exactly sure how that could be quantified but what am I, a scientist?)

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the playoffs can ever make or break a free agent, but there are certain cases where you can definitely see that someone was given a boost

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Daniel Murphy was given a healthier contract after blitzing through the first two rounds in 2015

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: And I think last year’s playoffs did well to highlight that Brandon Morrow really was a new pitcher

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: This era being what it is, executives aren’t going to overreact to a hot two or three weeks. But if there’s something statistical that demonstrates skill or improvement in October, that won’t go unnoticed

9:12	Lilith: Please rank the recent manager hires: Bell/Reds, Montoyo/Jays, Baldelli/Twins, Ausmus/Angels… Which hires do you like the most? The least?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: With the caveat that I don’t know anything, I like Baldelli. I also like Montoyo. I’m open to the idea that Ausmus has evolved since his last opportunity. Bell interests me the least. Which is not to say that he’ll be a bad manager, but I don’t yet see anything exciting over there

9:14	Xolo: What’s a realistic return the Padres could get if they trade from their outfield depth?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I think they could get a pretty interesting starting pitcher if they moved Margot or Reyes. Don’t think Renfroe would be that highly valued yet, and Cordero is super talented but he’s coming off a lost season

9:17	Jaff: What team would be a good fit for Whit Merrifield?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Brewers, for one

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Nationals, for two

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Rockies, for three

9:19	vince clortho: Boston should probably start ERod in game 4, given that LA’s platooning has hit ‘Mr Burns pinch hitting for Daryl Strawberry’ territory. Eovaldi’s been dynamite in the 8th anyway

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Going to guess the Dodgers probably have a pretty good idea of what they’re doing. They just haven’t hit for two games

9:20	Guest: Can you tell Ben his piece on doubting WS managers was great?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: He can read this when the transcript is posted

9:20	Airport Banana: Hey Jeff, due to Brewers-related baseball depression, I’ve largely avoided the site, but I just wanted to drop in and thank you for a sason of chats and posts. Always informative and interesting! Also, you will die at some point in the next 70 years.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: So will most of us! There’s freedom in being forgotten

9:21	Cesar: Nuñez hit two homers off LHP all year. The idea that he makes Cora a genius and Roberts an idiot drives me nuts.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t pay attention to people who speak in such absolutes

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: It’s the siren song of certitude

9:22	Lou: Would the NBA Finals be fun to watch if the announcers constantly bemoaned 3 point shooting, fast breaks, and the wide open modern game?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: I get the idea of having player experience in the broadcast booth. But the experience of playing 25 years ago means so little compared to the game’s modern era. It’s a completely different sport. A broadcast should want to feature someone who’s either still playing, or is at least recently retired

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Chris Archer is so good. If only he weren’t, you know, a current starting pitcher

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure it’s not something he wants to do, but imagine if John Smoltz were Brandon McCarthy instead

9:25	Guest: Are Seattle residents as annoyed with tech employees (Amazon) as SF residents are?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t live in Seattle, but yes

9:26

stever20: With Sales relative struggles this postseason- I think it’s safe to conclude his injuries were real and not just trying to get him rest like folks were thinking was possible. How do you think this will impact him next year? Will rest in your opinion get him ok or is it something that could be really big next year?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: It’s worth noting that, historically, Sale’s worst month has been September, and his second-worst month has been August

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Still good months! Relatively speaking. But there’s real reason to believe that Chris Sale just wears down over the course of 7+ months of regular pitching

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: Whatever’s going on with him now, I imagine it won’t require surgery — he’ll rest and be okay by the spring. We saw some 95s and 96s the last time out. But I don’t know if Sale’s built to excel in the playoffs, given how much pitching is done ahead of October. Perhaps the Red Sox could skip starts or shorten his outings

9:29	Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Will the Angels move to Portland?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, but I do think they’re the most likely candidate of the three(?) that’ve been discussed

9:30	Grover: If they miss out on Harper/Machado could you see the Dodgers using their budget on absorbing a big contract like Stanton or Grienke?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I could see them making a play for Greinke long before I could see them making a play for Stanton. Don’t think they want that contract on the books

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Greinke has three more years. Stanton has nine

9:33

Jack: Do you think we’ll ever see any mega prospects with the balls to threaten to not report to Triple-A and/or demand a trade in instances where they’re obviously being kept in the minors for service time manipulation? Teams won’t do it if they don’t feel it’s worth it, and the way to make them feel that way may be to make them feel like they’re risking ruining their relationship with the player

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: All it would take is one player, but I don’t think we’ll see anything beyond what we see now — a frustrated statement from the agent, some grumbling, and a threat of a grievance. A player just doesn’t have that much leverage, under the current construction, and the same player also wouldn’t want to upset his employer when he’s so close to making his debut. More and more, I assume players know how these things work. There are effectively seven years of club control, not six

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: But I do think there’s a glimmer of hope that service-time manipulation is in some way addressed in a forthcoming CBA. Try to nip this in the bud, now that these maneuvers are getting harder and harder to hide or explain away

9:38

Stevil: Hey Jeff, I’m curious if you think a swap of Kyle Seager for Wil Myers might make sense. As I understand it, Seager’s club option would become a player option if he’s traded, so the money involved would be about the same. San Diego would get a better defensive option for 3B, Seattle would get an upgrade at 1B or a potential alternative for an outfield corner. Who says no?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s impossible, and I do think there would be some amount of interest in Seager from the San Diego side, but Seager is three years older than Myers, and he’s coming off a seemingly worse season. The Padres would be getting older and not that much better, and then the Mariners would also be left without a third baseman

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe you could build something around Seager and Myers, but the odds are better that Seager will just have to try to figure it out in Seattle

9:41	Nelson: Max Muncy has a wRC+ of 141 vs lefties with a 255/361/529 line. What more could dave Roberts possible want?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect the Dodgers don’t believe that Muncy’s statistics reflect his true talent

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: His strikeout rate did jump almost ten percentage points in the second half, and it’s gone up again in the playoffs. 20 strikeouts in 46 playoff plate appearances

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Dodgers are wrong, but I think they’ve concluded Muncy isn’t the perfect matchup against the bulk of playoff-caliber pitching

9:44	Ross: What do you think the chances are that Harper could sign with a surprise team like when Greinke signed with Arizona? Who do you think it could be? Let’s say a “surprise team” is anyone outside of WSH, NYY, PHI, CHC, LAD, SF

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say 0.5% chance he signs with the Marlins, and 1.5% chance he signs with the Padres

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: That’s not based on any inside information. Just a pair of longshot hunches

9:46	Ian Kinsler: Am I getting benched tonight?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t Holt ordinarily draw the start against Buehler anyway?

9:47	Dustin: What’s the worst thing that could happen to Ryan Madson: Being inserted into another high-leverage situation this week, or being forced to ingest a handful of candy corn?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Those are both wonderful things that could happen

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: You have presented a choice between two wonderful things

9:48	Tim: Do you think Edwin Jackson could name every MLB team he’s played for without any hesitation or ever having to stop and think?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Nope

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact I learned from Ben Lindbergh this morning: Edwin Jackson ranks second on the all-time list of major-league teammates!

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: He’d probably go up to first if he signed with a new club this winter

9:49	John: Any thoughts on the managerial hires so far?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Baldelli seems like the most interesting of the four, but in all honesty I know so little about the managers who are already managing

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Even having talked with beat writers and team people over the years, I don’t think anyone knows what to make of a manager

9:50	Bruce: Pitch tipping has replaced Pitch framing as the least interesting thing I keep seeing articles about and not reading

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: On the one hand, I think you’re doing yourself a disservice — these can be interesting subjects

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, yeah

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think pitch-tipping almost ever explains why a guy is having a hard time. I think it’s almost always just bad pitching

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: But, whatever. Some players believe in it, and it can be fun to break down the video if there’s actually something notable to be found

9:54	Stevil: How is Dansby Swanson not a finalist for a Gold Glove?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know — I don’t know why Galvis is up there — but Ahmed ought to win it anyway

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I guess Crawford has the developing precedent, but Ahmed is special

9:56	Ryan: Hi Jeff. I am curious, what is your ZIPs win probability for the Dodgers in the game today?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. I don’t run ZiPS!

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: But our scoreboard page currently puts the Dodgers at 59% https://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard.aspx?date=2018-10-26

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: That includes the home-field advantage

9:58	Devil Ray Jay Johnson: What nickname should the Seattle hockey team adopt?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Canucks

9:58	Tyler: How do you stop the Red Sox when they’re at bat with two outs? Better yet, how do you stop them at all?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: You throw the best pitches you can throw and you assume that the Red Sox aren’t magic