Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/14/14

October 14, 2014

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: hello there friends

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: everybody in the mood to live baseball chat?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see how this goes!

9:03	Comment From Guest What exactly is a hung pitch? Is it just location, is it grip, or is it something else?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Generally speaking, a hung pitch is a non-fastball that ends up higher in the strike zone than was intended. It can be because a ball didn’t spin right out of the hand, or maybe you released it too early, or whatnot

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Jean Machi arguably hung a splitter to Oscar Taveras. Even though the pitch was down in the zone, it was supposed to be in the dirt, and Machi missed up by a couple of feet. So Taveras was able to get the bat head around

9:05	Comment From aaa are you ready for FAKE MOOKIE BETTS TRADE-FEST 2K14?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I can deal with hypothetical trades if I can anticipate them!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Still liked that idea of Betts for Donaldson. Even though it’s not perfect, it’s in the vicinity of realistic

9:06	Comment From Vic The Orioles have a one in ________shot of winning the series?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: 12ish

9:07	Comment From Guest KC not getting this far next season?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve written before about how I think their window extends forward even without James Shields, but as a simple rule of thumb you should bet against anyone going up 2-0 in the LCS the next season

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll be right in the mix for the division, though. The Tigers are in a difficult situation, so I think you’ll see a Detroit/KC/Cleveland three-headed pennant monster

9:09	Comment From Vslyke Petriello thinks its pretty close to a toss-up whether Ervin Santana gets a QO. What do you think?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: 70/30 no

9:09	Comment From Guest Rank in order which OF is most likely to be traded: Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Zorbist, Carlos Quentin, other

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: other is most likely to be traded

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: then let’s go…Kemp, Upton, Zobrist, Quentin

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I do not feel strongly about this

9:10	Comment From J6takish How do the tigers always have such bad bullpens? Dombrowski seems pretty smart and this seems like an odd thing for him to be inept at

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Nathan looked like a good gamble, then he sucked. Soria looked like a good gamble, then he sucked

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: I think a lot of this is just lousy luck, which sounds stupid but with relievers it’s a pretty big factor. The Tigers have had their star money invested elsewhere, and they’ve thinned out the farm system, and it’s possible there’s something about the player development that isn’t generating enough minor-league relievers

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, every team in baseball has a handful of guys in the minors who could probably come up and post 3.00 ERAs in the middle innings. Where are the Tigers’ reinforcements?

9:12	Comment From Guest Will there be a chat during the games today?

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t yet heard anything to that effect, but it’s possible this chat ends and I have an email waiting from Dave. My preference would be to not chat and then chat again later for another four hours, but I do know that chats will be returning soon. It was never the plan to do them every day

9:13	Comment From Guest favorite non baseball-related author(s)?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Krakauer

9:14	Comment From Guest Thoughts on Jeff Bridich?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Honestly never knew who he was before. Having read some material, on the one hand he’s been groomed by that very organization, but on the other he does seem to have a little bit of a fresher and more analytical approach. One wonders how much different a Bridich-led Rockies team can be than an O’Dowd/Geivett-led Rockies team since everything’s staying in-house, but this seems like a small step forward

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: The biggest issue isn’t really the personnel in the front office. The biggest issue is figuring out how to win consistently playing Colorado baseball. It would be a challenge for anybody

9:17	Comment From Free Scott McKinney Should the O’s be doing anything differently with their bullpen, or is this just a situation where the right moves do not always work out?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t remember every last detail but I’ve felt pretty good about Showalter’s moves in the first two games. Players just fail. Nothing to be critical about, in terms of the strategy

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I liked when Showalter brought in Andrew Miller to counter Jarrod Dyson running on first. That was clever

9:18	Comment From _David_ Would the Mariners seeming hard line stance against PED offenders, if true, change your opinion about ownership interference regarding the Cruz situation?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to know how much Zduriencik knew about that, and I’d also like to know, in that case, why Jesus Montero is still in the system, and why the Mariners acquired a guy like Milton Bradley a few years back

9:19	Comment From Brandon Darren O’Day looks like he’s standing up straighter than usual during his delivery these past few games. Why would he change his pitching motion?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see any changes in the release-point data, and that’s the most important thing. Just like how it doesn’t matter that Hunter Pence swings like a complete idiot since he eventually arrives in proper contact position. If O’Day has changed something during his windup, that might just be a little tweak he decided upon, but when it comes time to let the ball go, he’s the same as he’s been

9:21	Comment From Guest Do you think Saunders gets traded or requests one?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: He has basically no leverage, but it would not surprise me if he’s dealt away. I think the odds are 60/40 he sticks around in some capacity

9:21	Comment From Free Scott McKinney What should each remaining playoff team dress up as for Halloween?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Derek Jeter

9:22	Comment From Darth Stout Why not start Shields today?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Short rest?

9:22	Comment From Fisk Hello Friend, let’s chat. Do the Dodgers have reason to want to deal someone like Scott van Slyke to the Mariners for relief help?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Legitimate outfielders don’t and shouldn’t get traded for relievers

9:23	Comment From Guest how is it possible that mike trout has such trouble with high pitches?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: He has a swing path that’s specifically geared to punish pitches at the thigh or below. That’s where people have pitched him, and those are the pitches he’s decided to destroy. His swing is his swing. Same with Brandon Moss, although obviously Moss is no Trout. When you have a swing that’s geared to counter a sinker, it’s not going to play as well against a fastball up, because you’re taking such an uppercut

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: It’s obviously not impossible for Trout to hit a high pitch hard, and in fact he homered on one against Kansas City, but the probability is against Trout in the zone’s upper third

9:25	Comment From Free Scott McKinney Do the M’s trade for Billy Butler’s $12 million option or do they wait for him to become a free agent?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: nobody wants to pay Billy Butler twelve million dollars

9:25	Comment From Fisk What % of championship baseball is about withstanding attrition?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a number for you, but the good fortune of avoiding major injury is probably an underrated boost

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Even when just average players get hurt, they get replaced by inferior players, and that’s when you can get really exposed. The Orioles are an outlier in this regard — they’ve survived everything

9:27	Comment From mtsw Re: Alex Gordon’s deterrence, it seems like the rest of the league has (more or less) properly evaluated whether to run on balls hit to him. Do we know of any outfielders who are consistently over or under estimated by runners/base coaches?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like people are going to take fewer and fewer chances against Yoenis Cespedes

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I was surprised the extent to which people ran on Shin-Soo Choo this past season. That rate should go up in 2015

9:28	Comment From GSon Who hangs up, Cubs or Indians in a Danny Salazar for Jorge Soler trade proposal?.. Could this be a foundation for a trade with more players involved?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Cubs would hang up first, but there’s a foundation there

9:29	Comment From Jake Is Waino an ace next season?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with yes. I think the offseason helps him get over whatever this is

9:30	Comment From Brad Would betts play 2nd for Oak and who would play 3b for oak if your trade idea happened?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Firstly, I want to say it’s not my idea — someone came up with it in last week’s chat

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: But Oakland would do the deal just to get Betts. It would shift their problem spot from second to third, so that would be something for them to deal with, but they’d go for it just for the added service time

9:31	Comment From aaa Betts for Donaldson doesn’t make sense. Donaldson is Betts’s upside — if EVERYTHING breaks right for Betts, he’ll be as good as Donaldson. Betts only has two more years of team control. I think you’re way overrating Betts’s value.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: what?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Betts has all of the years of team control left

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: that’s like half of his value

9:32	Comment From Guest Who would you trade, Chris Taylor or Brad Miller?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Taylor

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: fun fact: Chris Taylor’s initials are CAT

9:32	Comment From Bob E. Kyle Zimmer looked legit last night…in the mix for rotation next year?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Not immediately, since he basically didn’t pitch this summer, but he’ll be a fast mover if he’s healthy

9:34	Comment From Free Scott McKinney What move or type of moves should the Padres prioritize this offseason?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Add a cheap starting pitcher, try to find a real shortstop, and hope for good enough injury luck to get up to 85+ wins

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: They’re in a weird situation where they’re kind of caught between building up and building down. I think they’re close to having sufficient depth but no matter what they do they won’t be a favorite in 2015

9:36	Comment From Guest im still having a hard time jumping on the KC bandwagon because of the article from Eno…but are tools like hosmer and moustakis any different from the average mlb personality?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: There are people you wouldn’t like on every team, there are people you *would* like on the Royals (like Gordon), and Eno would probably tell you himself he didn’t know enough yet at that point to be as great an interviewer as he is now. It left a bad taste in my mouth too, but I kind of understand, and judging a team by the temporary behavior of a couple of players is like judging a fan base because a few people in the bleachers are loud obnoxious drunks

9:38	Comment From Guest What does your crystal ball say about Khris Davis’ future?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: average to above-average outfielder. Fairly solid across the board, but he’s not so much of a long-term building block

9:38	Comment From Guest Santana back to KC?

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Royals are going to want to spend that kind of money on a pitcher who isn’t that good. Even with the playoff run, they’re still not going to spend big, which means they need to be smart about how they distribute what they have. They’re going to be a big build-from-within organization for the long haul

9:41	Comment From mtsw If you’re Buck Showalter, how do you handle your rotation going forward? Do you pitch Tillman in game 4 and skip Gonzalez? Does the outcome of tonight’s game matter in that decision?

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: Realistically, the Orioles have one start left to get from Tillman. They shouldn’t want to start him on short rest; he’s not that good. They need to win four games no matter what and they still do have a deep and talented bullpen, so I think you go with Gonzalez and you’re aggressive with relief if he gets himself in trouble.

9:43	Comment From J Are any of these postseason teams actually any good?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: In the second half of the season the Orioles and Royals had the two highest WARs in the American League

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: The Giants are roughly wild-card level, and the Cardinals would be quite solid if it weren’t for Wainwright’s thing and Molina’s thing

9:45	Comment From Fisk Did you read the Eno Saris piece on Alex Gordon? It seemed the formula for him was a) have a good attitude + b) workout like crazy in baseball-relevant ways + c) be very talented (and don’t eat pizza). Which part of this do you think Dustin Ackley is missing?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: When Alex Gordon was Dustin Ackley’s age, he wasn’t this version of Alex Gordon yet

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: That would’ve been Gordon’s 2010, in which he was demoted to the minors

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Ackley’s got some psychological hurdles. Maybe he simply isn’t as talented as Gordon is. I don’t know anything about Ackley’s personal discipline. But remember that Gordon is a career exception. Prospects who flame out like he did don’t usually turn into what he’s become

9:48

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
I am the only one that is confused about the Chase Headley FA situation? He is coming off a “bad year” but he still put up a 4+WAR and everyone remebers his monster 2012 season. Yet teams tend to not pay much for the skill set he displayed this season. What kind of contract do you think he gets?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a little bit like Jhonny Peralta and Shane Victorino. He’s going to get at least three years, and he’s going to get eight figures for AAV

9:49	Comment From Guest can you distill why the projections all of a sudden love KC? it changes that drastically because of a few months of good results?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Dave knows more about this than I do, but I think the projections now are just Steamer? which would mean ZiPS is out of them for the playoffs, and maybe ZiPS was balancing Steamer out all season long

9:50	Comment From Mooking for Love Josh Hamilton is due $23/30/30 over the next 3 years. This looks like a Ryan Howard level albatross to me. Is it even remotely possible the Angels can move him and should they?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: No one is going to want to take him, but Hamilton can at least be an above-replacement player. He’s overpaid but not worthless

9:51	Comment From Guest How would you manage wainwright going forward? Shorter leash with Wacha ready?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not any more confident in Wacha than they are in Wainwright. It would just be, yeah, shorter leash, and then you end up with a lot of Marco Gonzalez

9:52	Comment From D How disappointed will Cubs fans be when all of their high-K minor leaguers end up higher-K major leaguers?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: What else do they do?

9:53	Comment From Free Scott McKinney If pitchers were limited to throwing only one pitch, who would be the top 3 starters (and their respective pitches)?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: oof

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: well, R.A. Dickey

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: and then maybe Wainwright (cutter) and Kluber (cutter)

9:56	Comment From Gila Monster How do we deal with a guy like Adam Jones? He was typically viewed as an excellent defensive centerfielder by scouts, but the metrics already hated him. But this year he posted a 10.7 Def/8.3 UZR. Has he changed? Were the metrics wrong? Is it just extreme random variation?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: same UZR season as he had in 2008, and by DRS he was basically himself. I’m going to assume this year he just wound up with slightly easier opportunities, and in reality he’s something like an average defensive center fielder, which is a thing that looks pretty good to the naked eye

9:57	Comment From Dan I can’t believe I’m asking this: Will the 2015 Cubs be the 2014 Royals?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: the Cubs are going to strike out

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t mean like big-picture, they’re going to bust. I mean their players are going to strike out a lot, and the Royals don’t do that

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: But to get at what you actually mean, yeah, I think next year’s Cubs are in the mix