Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/27/17

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Longoria gets 10-5 rights next season. Does he get traded before then?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know why he would. This being Tampa Bay, obviously there’s always the chance, but Longoria feels like a forever Ray

9:08
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What does Hensley Meulens need to do to get hired as a manager in one of the three current vacancies? I’d love him with the Nationals (though current front-runner Dave Martinez *feels* like a good fit as well).

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: This comment expresses a stronger feeling about a possible managerial candidate than I could personally ever imagine possessing

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Feels like the Nationals in particular are going to try to find the perfect impossible blend of experienced, capable, and cheap

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: That doesn’t exist

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: But if there’s a trend these days, it’s toward managers who are willing to be, for lack of better word, submissive. If you have a strong personality but you’re willing to have your strings pulled, you could get a job

9:11
BJOGC: Carson hates baseball yet he works for a baseball website and even hosts a baseball related podcast. What would be your hellishly ironic job?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Kindergarten teacher

9:12
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Dusty Baker has lost a job, but Alex Cora has seemingly gained one in Boston. Dave Roberts and Rick Renteria represent the only other minority MLB managers. Between the Yankees, Phillies, and Nationals vacancies, how much more diversity do you think we’ll find in management roles in the dugout?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: It’s basically Dave Martinez, right? He seems like by far the best hope

9:13
Jack: If you lived in one of the two-team cities (Chicago or New York — sorry, Angels, you’re not in LA), would you be a Cubs or a White Sox fan in Chicago, or if you lived in New York would you a Yankees or a Mets fan? For people who are raised in a two-team city, I assume which team you end up cheering for is mostly determined by who most of your family and friends cheer for, which stadium you live closer to, maybe what team was better while you were growing up, etc., but say you just moved to New York or Chicago yesterday and decided you were gonna pick one of their teams to be a fan of. You live roughly the same distance from each stadium, and you don’t have any friends in your new city yet that would influence your decision.

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I’m torn. In this hypothetical, there’s the human pull toward the underdog, but then I think that has more to do with specific, individual games. Because there’s also a strong and pervasive human pattern of frontrunning

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I’d prefer to root for the team that isn’t already good. But if this is also about me then in reality I wouldn’t switch my own allegiances just because I moved to a new apartment

9:15
Bennybadatroto: hey Jeff, what’s Tyler Mahle’s realistic ceiling? Can he be a solid number two starter?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Shout out to the unexpected Tyler Mahle question during the World Series

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: I think solid number two is aiming a little high, if we’re thinking in terms of 50th percentiles

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t flash much of his changeup in the major leagues, and it remains an open question how he’ll do against lefties. There’s also the larger point that I just don’t know if I trust the Reds right now to know how to develop a starter

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Big part of me wonders how the Reds would look as a major-league roster right now if they had, say, the Cardinals’ player development

9:19
Ryan B: Hey Jeff – thoughts on Mickey Callaway with the Mets? If you had to pick an arm that he might have the most influence on, who might that be?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, Callaway would be a big reason why the Mets won’t non-tender Matt Harvey, but I think it’s going to be most interesting to watch if he can help mold Noah Syndergaard into someone who doesn’t go 100% all of the time with every pitch

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: A version of Syndergaard who paces himself would be unbelievable

9:20
T: What are the characteristics of a pitcher that needs to lower their arm slot? Can you identify anyone that could use this to improve their slot in the rotation? Anyone else you see that could improve with this adjustment like Darvish and Morton?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: A lot of times, over-the-top arm slots look unnatural. Mostly because they are unnatural! Like, Clayton Kershaw doesn’t pitch in the way that his body was designed to throw. But if a guy is over-the-top and successful, there’s not much of a reason to change. So you’d be looking for an over-the-top delivery with inconsistent health or control

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Like a younger James Paxton

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: The name that jumps out to me is Lucas Giolito. I don’t really like his delivery. But I might just have Paxton bias. I think Giolito looks ridiculous but I’m just some guy with a small computer

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: If Giolito lowered to like three-quarters or something, I think he could look a lot smoother

9:24
Anthony: Hey Jeff, I think you’ve said in the past that at any one time, you think there are only a couple of noticeably good managers, a couple of noticeably bad managers, and a big group in the middle you can’t distinguish between. Was Girardi one of your handful of noticeably good managers?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: For the most part I liked Joe Girardi, to whatever extent someone in my position can like a manager. I, of course, never had to deal with him. I just know how his teams did. I think he was pretty good, but I’m also not privy to whatever might’ve happened between him and Cashman. If their relationship soured, well, I don’t know if it’s worth trying to repair that

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think losing Girardi is going to serve the Yankees particularly well. But their talent level is so high they’ll survive

9:25
Ross: Give me team and contract predictions for the following free agents:

Logan Morrison
Carlos Gonzalez
Alex Cobb
Wade Davis

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: I promise you — I *promise* you — any answer I’d give wouldn’t mean anything

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: But I’d expect Wade Davis to sign for the most

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: It might be silly, but I think he really cemented his reputation with his long playoff saves

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Gonzalez feels like the kind of guy who ends up with the Orioles for no reason

9:27
Dan: Are the Yankees making a mistake with Girardi?  Or was it time to move on?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: It’s all about whatever happened to the relationship between Girardi and the front office. If the front office doesn’t see eye-to-eye with the guy in the dugout, well, it’s not the front office that’s going to concede position

9:28
Mike: All of the discussion about Stanton’s trade value has made me wonder – why is the $/WAR relationship for contract pricing linear? Isn’t a 5 WAR player worth more than 5x a 1 WAR player because you have finite roster space?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: I think that, in theory, it shouldn’t be exactly linear, but in practice, it’s hard to tell where it stops being linear because there just aren’t that many great players. And when you have so much value tied up in one guy, that also means you’ve got a rather dramatic increase in risk. Stanton is a concentration of value, sure, but that’s partly offset by the reality that, if he gets hurt, you’re screwed

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: There’s also kind of an effective “cap” on salaries just because teams don’t want any one player earning too much of the payroll share. Drives down the highest prices

9:31
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What baseball player currently participating in the World Series earns a ridiculous nickname based on play? I’m thinking Chris “Hat Tip” Taylor has just enough alliteration to work…

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Charlie Culberson

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: just call him Showtime

9:31
Jota P: Who are the next Chris Taylor/Justin Turner diamonds in the rough?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: I apologize but I cannot predict the unpredictable

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: But here’s where it gets fun: neither can teams!

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: I will say, as I think I’ve said before, but I’m developing a positive feeling about Ketel Marte’s chances

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Bat-to-ball skills and he walked almost as often as he struck out. Seems like he could be on the verge of a massive, Jose Ramirez-like power leap

9:33
T: Should McCullers throw fastballs?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, infrequently

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Probably something like 25-30% of the time

9:34
Matt: Generally reliable local guy in Chicago-Dave Kaplan- mentioned that he hears Cubs could be looking to play the bad contract swap game with Heyward. If you sent Heyward + some useful assets like Happ, Almora could you see the framework of a deal for Stanton?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: I could

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: With Stanton, the key for the Marlins will be eating money. You could effectively do that by taking on the Heyward contract, and it even comes with some potential career upside

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Might go so far as to say it’s got a reasonable chance of happening

9:35
HappyFunBall: So Joe Torre said yesterday that yes, the umps blew the passed ball call in the deciding CHC-WAS game 5. How do we have umpires in the post season who don’t know the rule book? Not just the home plate umpire. He huddled up with the other five umps and they collectively decided on the wrong interpretation. Let’s throw some blame at Dusty also. He should have known that he can request a rule check from the replay office in NYC. But! In the post season, and when they game is already paused, why doesn’t the NYC office act more proactively?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: When is the last time you saw that rule invoked?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Is the answer “never”?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: For me, the answer is never

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: The rule book is incredibly long and incredibly detailed. I just think it’s unrealistic to expect umpires to know absolutely everything, especially when you’re dealing with uncommon fringe rules like this one

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Matt Wieters, for his part, seemingly knew the rule, but he’s a catcher. He sees things through a different lens

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I’d also say that I think it’s extremely unlikely the contact made with Wieters interfered with the play in progress. So even if the right call were made at the time, I’d have come away feeling like the Cubs got screwed by a technicality

9:38
Dann: Cubs making changes to the coaching staff (not to mention Dave Martinez being in the running for the Nats job). What do you think Chili Davis and Jim Hickey can bring to the table? Hickey’s reputation precedes him, but I don’t know much about Chili as a coach.

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not entirely sure what Davis will have to do. That lineup already lifts and hits for power. But maybe the hope is that he can somehow get through to Addison Russell, if he survives the offseason with the team

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Davis is one of those rare hitting coaches with a good reputation, and I think he’s an effective communicator. But if you are worried only about results, the Red Sox this season were largely disappointing

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Hickey is all about his relationship with Maddon. They get along famously. Pretty obvious hire

9:41
CubFan: Marwin Gonzalez’ production dropped off in the second half. Do you think he’s got a starting gig next year and if so where does he play….super sub? And do you expect regression in his stats?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Even the regressed second-half version of Marwin Gonzalez had a 128 wRC+

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: I imagine he’s going to play most days with next year’s Astros, at a variety of positions

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Are we done with calling people the new Ben Zobrist?

9:44
Jade: Does Chatwood go for a lot more than people are expecting? Seems like everyone mentions him as a “buy low” guy.

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Teams will still spend responsibly, just because Chatwood doesn’t have a track record of being actually good

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: But he gained two ticks and dropped his contact rate, and there’s going to be a vibrant market of potential employers interested to see him pitch outside of Colorado

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: The difference between him and Charlie Morton is that Chatwood doesn’t have the curveball, and I wonder if he might soon be turned into a fireman reliever type

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: But he’ll get at least one year of starting away from Coors Field before that happens

9:46
Safety Stegosaurus: If you were starting your MLB pitching career next season and you knew your skills would remain consistent for ten years would you rather be a reliever with velo and command like Fernando Rodney, or a starter with velo and command like Kyle Hendricks?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: I’d rather be like the good one

9:48
Klentak: Do I shop Odubel and his team friendly contract this winter? It would seem Odubel would have comparable value to AEaton ‘s in winter of 2016.

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Right or wrong, I don’t think the perception of Odubel is all that close to what the perception was of Adam Eaton

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: I also don’t think the Phillies are in a position where they need to be ditching any quality position players they have

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: But I’m sure they’re going to field some phone calls. I wouldn’t expect a move

9:49
Mark: chances the Yankees have an OF of Otani, Harper and Judge in 2019 are __%

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: 0%

9:49
Mike: How were the chicken fingers?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Unbelievable

9:50
Ryan: Who do you like more to build off their breakout season – Severino or Ray?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: They’re both very good. I have major concerns about neither

9:50
JR: Do you think Yelich will be traded?  He seems like a perfect fit for the Padres.

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s the least likely of the major Marlins to get moved

9:51
Tim: How are the Rays supposed to compete next year? A mediocre 80-win team from this season is going to lose its best hitter (Morrison), best starter (Cobb) and basically all of their good relievers (Hunter, Cishek, Romo) to free agency. Kinda feel like maybe the reason they acted as buyers at the deadline this year was they knew it might be their best shot for a while. I don’t see how they’re supposed to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox anytime soon.

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Rays expect to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox anytime soon. I think they’re forever in the position of trying to be good enough to grab the second wild card

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: And that just comes down to Kevin Kiermaier, and churning out cheap young starters

9:52
Safety Stegosaurus: Which way do you think the Yankees will go in their managerial search?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a name, but I would trust the Yankees to hire the right sort of guy. They’re not going to get this horribly wrong

9:53
Patty O’Furniture: Kemp and a prospect to New York for Ellsbury?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Why would they want Matt Kemp?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Why would anyone want Matt Kemp?

9:54
Matt: Cubs need to avoid doing something stupid in FA, as it relates to SP, correct? Spend money on bullpen upgrades and go for a 2nd tier SP or two?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: What team doesn’t need to avoid doing something stupid in free agency?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: The more I think about it the more I think the Cubs getting Darvish seems obvious

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that would go terribly wrong. Maybe it would be a resounding success!

9:55
@swmrdak79: Whats the biggest takeaway from the cubs hiring/letting go of their coaches?  Upgrades? Is this more of a Maddon Influence?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Someone has to pay the price when a team declines that much between seasons

9:56
Oklahomabrave : This Braves investigation seems to be getting bigger and bigger with rumors of everyone up to Terry McGuirk being replaced. Will they be able to even able to line up a FO in time to have an offseason?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, feels like this could be a pretty quiet winter for Atlanta

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Aside from the imminent discipline

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: The extremely severe imminent discipline

9:57
Patty O’Furniture: Realistically what type of package would it take for the Braves to pry away Chris Archer?  I know it’d be a lot, but can you approximate it beyond that?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: This is just me speculating, but I’m not sure the Rays and the Braves are really that good of a match

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Even ignoring the part where the Braves might have to spend the next few months worrying about their own front office, I think the Rays would want more security back. The Braves have a bunch of high-risk underperforming young pitchers

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Like, if the Cubs don’t get Darvish, it’s not hard to see them using someone like Happ or Russell to try to get Archer

10:00
Mark Appel: Do I keep my spot on Phillies’ 40-man?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure why you would

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: If Appel survives, it’s only because the Phillies might be short on talent that needs to be rostered

10:00
Lunar verLander: So the Astros have slightly more pressing concerns at the moment, but what do you think their offseason plans are?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Left field

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: And, as always, finding another good reliever

10:02
Mike: With the Dodgers so reliant on the long ball, and McCullers with the second lowest HR rate among starters with at least 100 IP, do you think LA struggles tonight? Three runs on two hits doesn’t seem especially likely.

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: McCullers is always hard to hit, but on the other hand, the Dodgers might have the kind of lineup capable of getting him out of there after like four innings

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine there are many things the Astros want to see less than 5+ innings of bullpen work

10:03
CamdenWarehouse: “experienced, capable, and cheap” You mean Dusty Baker?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah. Nationals screwed up

10:03
BB/K: What should one sacrifice to appease the BABIP gods?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: You can sacrifice whatever you want. They’re not going to change who they are

10:05
dan: Jim Hickey joins the Cubs staff, they have a need for a couple of starters, Alex Cobb hearts Jim Hickey.  Therefore, Alex Cobb to the Cubs is probably one of the more-than-likely free agent deals, no?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: To Cobb’s credit this year, he got stronger as the season went on. Big question is going to be how high that could drive his FA market. I don’t think the Cubs will be interested in him if he ends up at like 3/$45m. But if they could get him for cheaper, yeah, they’ll be in there

10:07
Kosch: Thoughts on Derek Fisher making the post season roster considering he’s never going to play??  I was thinking another long reliever to soak up innings in case of a blow out.

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Fisher is kind of the only thing the Astros have close to a speed threat on the bench

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Also makes for a potentially useful pinch-hitter in the NL park

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you need to worry about a long reliever in the case of a blowout. Off-days are built into the series and any blowout would already be a lost cause

10:09
Moltar: I love ragging on the Wilpons for being cheap, but if the Lerners don’t open the wallet for Girardi, man, is that ever a bad look…

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: About as bad as the circumstances that led them to Baker in the first place!

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: If they don’t sign Girardi, then — well, whatever, I don’t think they can really save their optics. But Girardi has fallen into the Nationals’ lap

10:11
Henry: How do the Padres trade for Yelich? Quantrill, Renfroe, Perdomo, and Solarte for Yelich and Prado?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: No, that’s not it

10:11
Anthony: What is the next non-Nats, Cubs, or Dodgers NL team to win their division?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: The hell with it, let’s go crazy. Phillies 2019!

10:12
@Ryan0Deal: Charlie Culberson has two home runs as a Dodger – the extra innings one from Game 2 of the World Series and a 2016 walk-off that clinched the NL West in Vin Scully’s final home game. First question: lol. Second question: which of those home runs is more meaningful?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Second one

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, I know, a WS home run is a WS home run, but when Culberson hit his the other day, the Dodgers’ chances of coming back to tie were still incredibly low

10:14
Bork: The Giants are apparently front runners for Stanton. He’d probably use his NTC to block a trade to them, no?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Conceding that I don’t know Giancarlo Stanton personally, I don’t think that he would

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: He’s from California, after all. That would have to hold certain appeal. And though the Giants were bad this season I don’t at all think they’re on the verge of a rebuild

10:15
Ryan: Chances Price has a bounce back year?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t trust that elbow one bit

10:16
Nitro Nic: How should we even measure managers? Rate of odd club house stories + bullpen decisions?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: We can’t. It sucks, but we can’t

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Best I can offer is comparing performance vs. preseason projections and hoping for a few years’ sample size

10:17
Show Hey O’Tawny: Schwarber for Betances, who says no?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Four years of a hitter who can’t field for two years of a reliever who can’t throw strikes

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: I could almost see it, but I think the Cubs would turn that down

10:18
Sharp: Are there any key differences between creating the best regular season roster and the best playoff roster?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: It’s all about the bullpen. If you have an especially strong bullpen, and just a few good starters, you hardly have to use anyone else in the playoffs

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers have thrown 91 innings in the playoffs

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw, Hill, Jansen, Morrow, Maeda, and Darvish have thrown 76.1 of them

10:20
Steve: What are your thoughts on possible expansion?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Generally pro

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Expansion is overdue, and since I’m not someone who has to worry about all the logistics, my own results-based analysis would absolutely love to see a team in Mexico City

10:22
Padre Friar: What will be the next thing to get excited about as a Padres fan? A trade of Brad Hand that brings back a haul? Fernando Tatis, Jr. getting called up? Getting a #1 draft pick after 2018? This is a looong rebuild. Need some hope!

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Give AJ Preller one thing — he never makes it dull. I suspect the Padres are going to generate all kinds of offseason rumors, which will keep fans entertained

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: But, yeah, I’d say the next thing will probably be a Hand trade

10:23
Copywriter: Do you guys have a copywriter? If not, I feel a cheap one could fill a good need and know a guy interested….

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Some of our stuff is edited by a few of our guys but we don’t have a dedicated editor, no. You might be able to tell!

10:25
Jshep12: When does Corbin Burnes get to MLB?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Was almost shockingly good in Double-A. Fast riser. Outside shot of seeing the bigs in September

10:26
Bryce: Prediction on the rest of this World Series?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers in six

10:28
Kristen: Possible destinations for Joc Pederson who could be on the block with Verdugo ready to go?  Wouldn’t mind my Rangers getting in on him as DeShields is more suited to LF.

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Texas, Toronto, Boston

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: These are kind of just guesses. But they’re sensible guesses!

10:28
Miguel Salcido: How about Charlie Culberson for DH in game 3 for the Dodgers? Neither Pederson, Grandal, or Ethier fare well against the curveball we all know they will see alot of tonight.

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, Charlie Culberson doesn’t fare well against anything

10:29
Fair line: Man, I got nothing for today. Potentially 5 more games of baseball in 2017, they would appear to have a good chance of being great. Some managers are going to be hired.

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Definitely feels like something of a lull since the end of Game 2. Not even really anything to preview right now. Just a matter of two really awesome baseball teams trying to out-awesome one another

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll re-state, just for the 2017 record: coolest thing about Lance McCullers is that he throws Craig Kimbrel’s breaking ball, but he does it as a starter

10:30
Hannah Hochevar: Now that the O’s are not selling (and have secured Luis Sardinas), who should they be targeting this off-season?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Second-tier starting pitching. Can’t make too many big commitments because a rebuild could and probably should be right around the corner, but if they want to see if 2018 can turn into something, they need rotation help post-haste

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the O’s decide to give Tyler Chatwood three years

10:32
Brian: What kind of a deal is Alex Cobb going to get?  3/50?  Or is that to low an AAV?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: That seems way too high, considering Ivan Nova got 3/$26m

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I was thinking something more like 3/$36m

10:33
Kyle Moore: Jeff, I’m interested in a career in analytics, specifically an internship with a club this summer. Forgive me if this is something you don’t know the answer to or this is out of the scope of this chat, but do you think sending mail with a resume, etc to the president of baseball operations types in font offices would be worth my time, even if the clubs don’t have a spot posted anywhere?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like I can recommend a *good* way to land a baseball job, but that’s not the path, unless you already have some kind of connection

10:35
Ben: How would you order CC, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke, and King Felix in likelihood to make the hall of fame someday? Side note: can you believe Hernandez is the youngest of those 5?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: In descending order:

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Sabathia, Felix

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Scherzer was a late bloomer, which works against him, but he’s so durable that for all I know he goes the whole Randy Johnson path

10:37
MC Cham: How will Lance McCullers and his newly refined hellish curve fare against the Dodgers tonight?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Probably really good for too few innings

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Get ready for some prime time Brad Peacock

10:37
Babe Truth: So pretty much the entire Cubs pitching staff under-performed this year. Any thoughts on how much of that was Bosio, pitch framing, or changes to the ball?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I think pretty much all of them also lost velocity. I’m led to believe they suffered from a severe hangover effect after leaving everything on the field last October/November

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Credit to Kyle Hendricks; he was great again in the second half even after somehow losing some zip

10:38
Dan: What do you see in Michael taylors future?  2018 starter with werth a FA?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not yet convinced Taylor is starter material, but I guess as the guy leading the Keon Broxton bandwagon, I can’t discriminate against powerful strikeout types with above-average defense

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Taylor is probably something like a 2-WAR player right now. We’ll see if the Nationals think they can do better

10:39
Kristen: TEX desperately needs TORP’s.  If they can’t land any this offseason they’re going to suck so do they then go into rebuild mode?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what they do without Ohtani

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: They’re *just* good enough to try to win about half of their games but, yeah, the medium-term future is looking kind of bleak. Maybe they just wait out Adrian Beltre

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: He’s signed through next season. Rebuild could come after that, especially if Cole Hamels doesn’t figure his shit out

10:42
Badeball: Who has the best logo in baseball?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I’m partial to the Giants, Mariners, and Tigers, but if I can be totally honest with you, I’ve also come to love the Marlins

10:43
LegallyEagle: Who needs to win Game 3 more, Dodgers or Astros?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Neither one. I think the urgency is almost identical.

10:44
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: If the Fangraphs guys vs. the Rotographs guys played tug-of-fWar, who would win?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: The rope

10:46
A: Hi Jeff! If the Marlins wanted to be cheapskates and package Yelich/Chen together, what kind of prospect would it bring back?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Still a fairly reasonable prospect haul, but only because Yelich is so valuable. Chen is something like $50-60m of dead money at this point

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: So, put together a reasonable package for Yelich alone, and then subtract one of the two best players you put in it

10:47
Braves Fan : Make me feel good about the Braves. I am miserable.

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: You had Greg Maddux once

10:48
Scherzer’s Blue Eye: As a Nats fan, I’m interested to hear what your take on Giolito is? Seems like he had a lot of luck, based off his FIP, and most of his Ks came in 1 game?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Still kind of hittable and his stuff was down. Racked up a bunch of strikeouts against maybe the most strikeout-happy lineup on the planet

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t trust Giolito at all. That amazing fastball he used to throw has completely disappeared. He’s a back-of-rotation starter, if anything, to me at present

10:51
Safety Stegosaurus: How high are you on Bryan Shaw going into free agency? Do you think he gets a David Robertson-like contract?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: I think Shaw is kind of underrated and forgotten because he’s more of a weak-contact type, but he’s also going to fall well short of the Robertson contract because teams like to reward strikeouts and powerful stuff. Shaw just doesn’t fit that kind of profile

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: He also doesn’t quite have Mark Melancon’s command

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Some news. Matt Stairs is now the hitting coach for the Padres

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: I like that hire. He speaks the new language of baseball without being a complete offputting dork about it

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: And it looks like the Royals denied the Braves an opportunity to interview Dayton Moore

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Usually teams don’t stand in the way of potential promotions, and Moore would’ve been going from GM to president of baseball ops, or something. Weird optics here!

10:55
TKDC: If an 18-year-old clone of Mike Trout existed, but he’d never played baseball (or any other team sport), would you still take him number 1 in the MLB draft?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: How would I know who he is?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: If all I know is that he’s an 18-year-old clone of Mike Trout, yeah, I’d draft him

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: He’d get two years in the instructional leagues

10:56
Buck: Earlier this week Dave said that there was a 99% chance that Stanton gets traded this off-season. Yesterday, Keith Law was asked the same question and put the odds at just 20%.  Does Dave know something that KLAW doesn’t?  What do you think the odds are of a Stanton trade?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how the Marlins get to their desired payroll level if they keep Stanton

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: It seems almost impossible that they could

10:56
YankeesJunkie: What are your thoughts on Jordan Montgomery going forward, posted the best fWAR out of all rookie pitchers and has relatively good command and stuff, do you see him being a #3 ceiling?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not comfortable giving pitchers ceilings because they blow past them all the time. All in all, I’m positive about Jordan Montgomery. Legitimate long-term big-league starter

10:57
Brian: The hardest in game part of managing is figuring out bullpen usage and not burning relievers out, right?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, probably

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: You have relievers you know you trust, but you also have to make sure they’re still fresh in September and October

10:58
TKDC: Do you consider Pete Rose or Ichiro to be the “Hit King”?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Pete Rose is the Hit King, and Ichiro is a lot more appealing in every way possible than Pete Rose

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Congratulations on your hit record, Pete. A shame you seem like an unpleasant human

10:59
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What does Jeff Sullivan’s Hallowe’en costume look like this year?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: A guy sitting in front of his computer watching the World Series

11:00
Nick: Do you think Mickey Callaway can fix Matt Harvey?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: I think only Matt Harvey can fix Matt Harvey

11:02
Hal: Jeff, after that Chris Taylor save don’t you think teams should look into stretching the dimensions of what’s acceptable with hats to increase defensive value? Does the rule book have hard-and-fast limits on how big a bill can be? What’s stopping the Dodgers from making Taylor wear a canvas tent on his head?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t MLB have an official contract with New Era to be the cap provider?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it would be up to the Dodgers to manipulate cap size for their own benefit, I’m afraid

11:03
ohioastrosfan: Stanton to Houston. Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Correa, Stanton. Tell me I’m delusional.

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: You’re not delusional. They’ll try

11:03
Youppi!: What the heck was going on with those HRs in Game 2? Random, or is Dallas onto something?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: It was very hot in Los Angeles for both of those games

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Very uncharacteristically hot

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Balls go far when hot

11:03
Badeball: What does a hitting coach do?  Is Chili Davis good at it?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Try to help hitters, and I don’t know

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: One of the several complicating factors is that a good hitting coach isn’t necessarily a good hitting coach for everybody

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Everybody needs different things, and communicates in a different way.

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: It’s so hard

11:04
LegallyEagle: Is there any manager in the game right now that has “tenure” or are all managers at the mercy of whoever runs the front office?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like Mike Scioscia might manage the Angels until they’re contracted

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/27/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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