Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/29/13

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hey all. Late today because whatever

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: It was a late night and I don’t have enough respect for you to show up four minutes ago

9:04	Comment From Justin Hey, it’s 12:04, time for the Sullivan chat!

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: It matters!

9:05	Comment From Bret Farrell or Matheny – who would you rather manage your team?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Farrell, because I’d be in the AL and there would be fewer opportunities for managerial mistakes

9:05	Comment From McClure_SF What were you drinkin’ last night?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Jon Lester PITCHf/x charts

9:06	Comment From McClure_SF Ouch. Potent.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Love the World Series and the playoffs, but I’m looking forward to a normal November

9:07	Comment From person hscer Fenway’s capacity: 40,000, roughly. Boston’s metro population: 4.6 million. Five years from now, how many people will claim to have been there if/when Boston wins the World Series at Fenway?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: 150,000, including tens of thousands who actually were in the general area right outside

9:07	Comment From filihok Jeff. Any idea why the component parts of WAR don’t add up to a player’s total RAR: 2013 Mark Trumbo for example: 4.5 batting, 8.1 fielding, -.4 running, 19.4 replacement, -11.7 positional = 19.9 runs but he’s credited with 22.8 RAR. Where do those extra 2.9 runs come from?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t figured this one out yet! And for some reason I haven’t asked someone who would know, like David or David.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: It seems perplexing but I can’t help but feel like I’m missing something obvious

9:08	Comment From Guest Is the belief among too many people that Ortiz is the best DH ever a recency bias thing, or has Edgar been shafted by history?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Recency bias, team bias, exposure bias

9:09	Comment From semperty Would you have sent Wainwright out for the 7th last night, or just said good enough is good enough and made a move?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: What I know is I wouldn’t have let him face Ellsbury. Jam shot RBI single, but the results don’t actually matter there with regard to what would’ve been the right decision

9:10	Comment From FJM Give me a scenario under which the Braves can rid themselves of Fredi Gonzalez this offseason. Please?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Fredi Gonzalez kills a man and is witnessed in the act

9:11	Comment From Sadwick Yea, yea, you’re late we’re outraged, the angry mob is on route to torture you for your arrogant tardiness. But for now BASEBALL!!!!!

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I just wanted to make a cup of coffee!

9:11	Comment From person hscer How many tens of thousands? Don’t say 11.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: …8

9:11	Comment From Jake Edgar played on the West Coast and Ortiz has the whole wacky character/clutch narrative

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Edgar was underrated by everyone who wasn’t a player

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Also it’s a lot easier to see highlights now than it used to be in Edgar’s days. There is just more footage of Ortiz, and more people talking about him

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Ortiz right now is about 400 regular-season PA short of Edgar’s career, and his wRC+ is lower by 9 points

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Ortiz has two seasons at 160+, Edgar had five

9:14	Comment From pogotheostrich Once Wainwright walks Drew you have to take him out.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I can sort of see the argument for allowing him to face Ross, and then it hardly matters who’s facing Lester. But yeah, as usual, opportunity to be more aggressive that Matheny blew

9:15	Comment From David Steamer has Anthony Rendon at .250/.325/.387 which is actually worse than his rookie year. That seems awfully low, doesn’t it?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Rendon is projected to be identical to how he was in 2013. Argument against is that he’s 23, and 23-year-olds improve. I presume Rendon will slightly beat that projection, but I also think people exaggerate how often and to what degree young players get better right away

9:16

Comment From Matt (Steinway)
How bad is the instant replay system going to be? Are we looking at 5 hour+ games in october? NHL, for all of its faults, really seems to have hit the nail on the head with all reviews coming from above, and the ref just talks on the phone with the league office who makes the right call. Takes about 45 seconds and then it’s over and done with.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s going to end up a lot more seamless than people fear

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Already there just aren’t that many close and reviewable calls per game

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: And when they happen in the playoffs, frequently right now there are on-field arguments on account of the stakes

9:17	Comment From Andrew Percentage wise how much of Manheny’s slow hook is due to having two pitchers spots taken up by the equivalent of silent partners? Which lead to other question about what St. Louis is doing?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s a matter of Matheny not having enough relievers he trusts. I think he just trusts his starters too much. As for what they’re doing, I haven’t the foggiest. Not one single good idea.

9:18	Comment From Guest Does Edgar ever make any of that up, or is he doomed to be forgotten?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll never be forgotten, but he’ll never compete with Ortiz’s flashiness

9:19	Comment From Steve Ortiz vs. Edgar http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=745,1086

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: EDGAR

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: EDGAR MARTINEZ

9:19	Comment From Gila Monster How is there controversy about Wainwright NOT IBBing Ortiz? I keep having to deal with people saying walking Ortiz was “no brainer” Aren’t IBBs always bad unless 2 outs with runners on 2/3rd with Barry Bonds up?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Here’s what we know: David Ortiz is good. Maybe, MAYBE, right now, he’s a little better than usual. Adam Wainwright is also good, so Wainwright makes Ortiz look worse. You don’t intentionally walk Ortiz under those circumstances. People aren’t good at figuring out Ortiz’s chances of success.

9:20	Comment From semperty What percentage of credit of the loss should be put on the players compared to Matheny in games 4 and 5? Is it more about Matheny making wrong moves, or players not compensating with those bad moves?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: 90-95% players. It’s always almost all about the players

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Maness made a terrible pitch. Cards scored one run off Lester/Uehara.

9:21	Comment From person hscer Between Harper and Rendon, why does Steamer hate the Nats?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: #offseason

9:21	Comment From dutchbrowncoat edgar also had to share his limelight with griffey, a-rod, and ichiro. i can’t remember any players of that caliber that ortiz has ever had in the lineup with him.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Damn you Griffey

9:22	Comment From person hscer Here’s my favorite 2014 Steamer projection: Johnny Damon. Has him down for 0 games, 1 PA, and a .256/.327/.394 triple slash.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: Johnny Damon never had a five-win season

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: had his best offensive season at 34

9:23	Comment From Chess How about some love for the Big Hurt?!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Even better than Edgar Martinez!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Who was better than David Ortiz!

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: In 1994, Frank Thomas slugged .729

9:24	Comment From person hscer Think Edgar can get into the Hall maybe 2022 or so if the system’s the same?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I think a lot of things are going to have to be cleared up, but I definitely think Edgar’s still got a good long-term shot

9:24	Comment From WWMRD When the year 2035 rolls around and the Mariners finally go to the World Series, are you gonna be at that game in person?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Actually a difficult question, because the Mariners are actively pushing me away. I’ll probably be at one of the games unless I am dead

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Or I won’t be because I’ll have to be working on whatever the Internet is in 22 years

9:26	Comment From LarryA If it goes 7, would the cards even consider starting Waino over Kelly?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: No, but you could have Wainwright available for an inning out of the bullpen

9:26	Comment From Mack the Cat any chance we can make this ford add stop taking over my entire screen and not letting me close it?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see a thing!

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Ha-ha!

9:26	Comment From Bruce Would a game seven of 2 innings each of wainright, carlos Martinez, kelly, rosenthal, etc be more effective than Kelly

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Probably yeah. Going to be a fascinating game to observe, if it happens, and depending on who pitches for how long in game 6

9:27	Comment From Justin Set aside Edgar vs. Papi for a second — who was the better gritty, clutch, beloved-by-his-fans right fielder, Jay Buhner or Paul O’Neill?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: O’Neill had the better best seasons, Buhner was the better power threat, O’Neill was better in the field. O’Neill.

9:30	Comment From Ms Fan can you give me a reason why Farquhar won’t turn into Wilhelmsen?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: no 🙁

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: relievers are the worst

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: except for when they’re very fleetingly the best

9:30	Comment From Bruce Is it Man-ess or Main-ess. I always thought it was the former, but maybe im just wrong

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Same as you, and I think it’s the latter, but I don’t know how much I can trust playoff TV broadcasts on these things

9:30	Comment From Richie There is a basic human impulse toward ‘acting’ rather than ‘not acting’. When things are at stake we want somebody to do something.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: No such impulse for Mike Matheny, unless his version of action is chewing his own spit

9:31	Comment From Chris Perez does Cody Allen have a chance to close in Cleveland next season?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: A chance, yes! A mathematical chance!

9:31	Comment From Donnie Baseball General opinion seems to be that American League teams are routinely better than National League teams. Do you agree with this/is there any statistical advantage to support this?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Well, for one thing, it’s cyclical, and it wasn’t long ago the NL seemed to have the advantage

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: This year, the AL went 154-146 in interleague play, which is almost dead even

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: A year ago, the AL was 142-110

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I think we’re achieving a better balance

9:34	Comment From danger Jeff, you appear to be the hardest working man at fangraphs – when did you get to be the best and how do you handle the expectations?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Now this is how you get a question submitted!

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll ignore the first part because I don’t think it’s true and as for the second, by being terrified all of the time that I’m not writing something compelling and original

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: But better to put five hours into something different than 25 minutes into whatever shows up after a game at CBS!

9:35	Comment From Gila Monster How could you argue for Ortiz being in the HoF, but not Walker,Thome,Bagwell?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Playoff boost would be one argument, and I suppose you could nitpick about the word “Fame”

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: The real answer is, by being wrong

9:36	Comment From Nick So, Farrell said he woudn’t have PH Lester even if the game remained tied. This is a felony in some states, yes?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: Lots of people saying that Lester was cruising. Yes, he was good, and his pitch count was down. For one thing, cruising isn’t predictive. Lance Lynn was cruising until he wasn’t. And for another, there were so few outs left for the Red Sox to get, and replacing Lester with a PH would’ve literally added a large fraction of almost an entire run

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: With Lester batting with two on and two out in a tie game, it’s an out almost automatically. 99%. A pinch-hitter has, what, a 25-26% chance of a hit, and maybe a walk, and maybe some extra bases? A hit scores at least one run. A run breaks the tie. You have to go to the bench. You have to trust your relievers.

9:38	Comment From Gila Monster dutchbrowncoat forgets about Manny Ramirez….who is better than all of the players mentioned so far.

9:38	Comment From RSquared Is Kevin Millar the Mike Eruzione of MLB?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Has Millar done low-budget regional insurance commercials?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: “eruzione” is Italian for “eruption”!

9:39	Comment From Guest which non playoff team this year is most likely to be a playoff team next year? Texas?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Them or the Angels

9:40	Comment From Guest If Ortiz gets into the hall before Edgar, please come back to LL for a day and write something to comfort me.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I could just write something at USSM

9:40	Comment From Pirates Hurdles For dutchbrowncoat, Papi had to share spotlight with Manny, Schilling, and Pedro.

9:40	Comment From Ades What is your projection for Franklin Guitierez in 2014?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: 250 encouraging and bittersweet plate appearances

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I might be biased, but I think he’s among the most fascinating free agents out there

9:41	Comment From pogotheostrich If the WS goes to game 7 who would the Red Sox start?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Peavy in one of them all-hands situations

9:41	Comment From poop Thoughts on Shawn Marcum for next year?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Hurt and disappointing, like usual

9:41	Comment From semperty Chances of Matheny even considering that?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Re: Kelly and a bullpen game. Very low chance, but I could see him actually taking Kelly out earlier than usual under those particular G7 circumstances

9:42	Comment From Schmiggy who gets bigger FA contract, Ubaldo or Nolasco?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Ubaldo

9:42	Comment From Dad Can Kubel be a starting calibur DH? What is a realistic stat line?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: He is not good

9:42	Comment From Schmiggy Lincecum deal a portent of things to come or just typical of the Giants to overpay to keep their core intact?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I think we’ve got both. Money is in the market, and the Giants paid a bit too much of it for familiarity

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Perhaps one could be encouraged by the Giants seeing enough there to believe in. Lincecum himself said he feels like he isn’t far off

9:43	Comment From semperty It’s Main-ess – for once McCarver/Buck got it right.

9:43	Comment From jb Presented without comment: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=10155,1000001,1008082,1003311,1014040

9:43	Comment From Gila Monster Albert Pujols retires tomorrow. Does he make the HoF?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Yup

9:44	Comment From Schmiggy did I stumble into the AL chatroom by accident?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Is there an alternative?

9:44	Comment From WWMRD How much of that is the Astros moving to the AL?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Re: interleague. Astros went 8-12, so it’s not a big factor

9:44	Comment From pogotheostrich Would the internet break if it was discovered Ortiz failed a drug test?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: It didn’t the first time

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: (trolling btw)

9:45	Comment From pogotheostrich If there is a game 7, Lester is will be available out of the bullpen right?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’ll be good for an inning or maybe two

9:45	Comment From pogotheostrich Is Victorino taking any heat from the Boston media for sitting out the last two games?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, because I don’t pay attention to regional media, but I should certainly hope not

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: And this is why I don’t pay attention to regional media. The upside is they agree with the right perspective. The downside is they just piss me off for drumming up a story out of nothing

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: probably hard to get worked up when you win both of the games

9:46	Comment From Donnie Baseball Ortiz: seeing the ball well and feeling comfortable at the plate or are Cardinals pitchers scared of him, nibbling at the corners, falling behind in counts, and being forced to throw pitches that get more of the plate?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect Ortiz always feels comfortable at the plate

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s just wound up with a few too many hittable fastballs. It’s a streak, a meaningless streak, but at the best/worst possible time. And now he’s in the Cardinals’ heads, as evidenced by the way he was tiptoed around yesterday

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Well, not tiptoed around, but pitched to. I remember a particular Wainwright AB I might write about later

9:47	Comment From Ajax Jeff, the balance that we are getting now was accomplished by moving Houston from the NL to the AL.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t explain everything before, doesn’t explain everything now!

9:48	Comment From person hscer SimCity 2000 had a disaster scenario where a volcano sprung up in Portland. Thoughts?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/vwdocs/volc_images/north_america/boring_lava.html

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: There are already volcanoes in Portland so another wouldn’t come as some great shock

9:49	Comment From David Angels more likely to be a playoff team than the Nats?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ll freak out more about the short-term while the Nationals are better set up for the long-term

9:51	Comment From semperty Do you think we’ll ever see MLB teams set up academies like soccer does in Europe (or MLB teams do in Latin America) here in America?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I…don’t think so. But they’ll set them up in Europe.

9:51	Comment From Gila Monster Fun Fact: Dan Uggla .179 averaged is tied for the lowest AVG of all time among qualified players tied with Rob Deer(Interestingly enough, they both posted OBP over .310.)

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Yet just two years ago, Adam Dunn batted .159 in 33 fewer at-bats

9:52	Comment From Bruce more inings, more WAR next year: Jaime Garcia or Carpenter?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Garcia

9:53	Comment From Perry Kole Calhoun or AJ Pollack?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Calhoun

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve never had to think about Kole Calhoun before

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: huh

9:53	Comment From Boston Strong Does Workman have any chance at a rotation spot in 2014? 2015?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: not a high one

9:53	Comment From James It’s fun reading STL area newspaper stories about Matheny pulling pitchers too early and then coming to Fangraphs to read the opposite stories. Oh baseball.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not going to say we’re 100% correct on everything, because we’re obviously not, but at least we’re making an effort.

9:54	Comment From Gila Monster How do I do more advanced stuff with data? For example I want to find all players whose Contact% decreased a certain % over a 2 consecutive years?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Get ready for manual labor and VLOOKUPS!

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure there’s a programmy way to do this stuff, but I can’t be of any service there. I do everything the hard way

9:55	Comment From Greg Who ends next season with a better FIP-: Ubaldo or Josh Johnson?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Ubaldo

9:55	Comment From potty List top 3 RP most likely to lead SEA in SV next yr.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Farquhar, Pryor, Wilhelmsen

9:55	Comment From JayT I’m not sure what Lincecum says should really count for much. What would you expect a soon to be free agent to say? “Oh yeah, I’m toast. Nowhere near where I once was”

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Fair point, but I think Lincecum was talking after he re-signed

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t remember, not very important

9:56	Comment From semperty Where does AP rank on the all time scale (to date)?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Very high

9:56	Comment From Wink Who has been the best player in this series, in your estimation, and does it differ from the proposed media narrative of who has been most valuable?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I think the gap between Ortiz and Lester is much closer than the narrative

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: but Ortiz also had that grand slam pulled back, sooooo

9:57	Comment From Greg Let’s say Trout plays 4-5 more seasons at his current pace and retires – is he a HOFer?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: nope, no real precedent for that

9:57	Comment From pogotheostrich Chances Kozma, Jay and Freese are starting for the Cardinals next year?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: All of em? Very low

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to get a real actual shortstop

9:57	Comment From Wink Off the top of your head, are the Cardinals actually worse against left-handers? Is this true for most teams because they see them less?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I think they are worse against lefties, by less than their 2013 numbers would suggest

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: THis season, teams were just a tiny bit better against righties

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: In 2012, the Cardinals were actually the best team in baseball at hitting lefties, with a 124 wRC+

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t know that!