Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/7/14

October 7, 2014

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends! Welcome to FanGraphs chat

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s talk about baseball, or what’s stressing you out

9:04	Comment From Carl Sbad Is Stephen Drew a worthwhile player in 2015?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: For real-life purposes, he’s probably a bottom-10 shortstop but a reasonable shortstop

9:05	Comment From Vslyke Is trading Kimbrel the best way for the Braves to reload for next year? He’d bring in a nice haul and it would save a lot of money.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: As great as he is, he’s not that cheap for a closer, and he’s got another three guaranteed years. The Braves could turn him into shiny bits, but not the most shiny bits

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Realistically, there’s no such thing as one move that reloads a roster

9:06	Comment From Jake Steamer puts McCann at 4.1 WAR in 2015. He hasn’t cracked 4 since 2010. That seem abitious to you?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: It’s because of the playing-time projection. Knock that down to McCann’s usual and the projection seems fine. 110 wRC+, with a career 114

9:07	Comment From Vinny Just out of curiosity, who’s responsible for going through the Community Research submissions?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: That’s me!

9:08	Comment From Jake Miller’s not getting a QO, right?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: It’s early for me, but, Miller? Like, Andrew Miller? He’s not getting a QO. He can’t get a QO, anyhow — he was traded midseason.

9:09	Comment From Stephen Are the Royals really in the ALCS? As a fan, I apologize, but I really don’t know how to act like we’ve been here before.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: This is an example of why the playoffs don’t always reward the best team(s) in baseball, and this is an example of why the playoffs are awesome like that

9:10	Comment From Fronk According to Steamer600, Stroman is the 11th best pitcher, Carrasaco is the 12th best pitcher, Brett Anderson is the 17th and Jamie Garcis is the 18th. See any problem with this?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: A few!

9:10	Comment From Pat Favorite place you’ve ever hiked?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: North side of Mt Hood

9:10	Comment From Oscar Shouldn’t the Reds shop Chapman?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: That would be ballsy and fascinating. Can you imagine if Chapman and Kimbrel were both being dangled on the market? The Reds need to figure out what their plan is, but if they’re going to tear down a little bit, it seems worthwhile to either deal Chapman or really try him as a starter

9:12	Comment From Jake Odds Robertson takes the NYY QO?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say…66%?

9:12	Comment From AJT Serious question: Why is this called fangraphs? Is it truly the graphs of fans? Or does it mean graphs for fans? Or both? And Why is there writing, why not just graphs? It’s in the title?!

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: The one time I needed help buying a fan, the site was useless 🙁

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a site for fans, and in the very early stages the site was proud of the graphs that it offered. Now we pretty much never use those graphs, but the name isn’t awful so here we are

9:13	Comment From El Rey What aspect of the game do you enjoy writing most about, if any?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe pitch sequencing? Or maybe just pitcher analysis. I like when the answers to questions are either unknown, or require a ton of work to get to

9:14	Comment From Jake Re, one move that reloads a roster; trading TUlo might do it

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I guess it kind of depends what you mean by reload. Reload to contend, or reload for the future? Deal Tulo or Stanton and you’re reloading for the future, but your present will be worse. Dealing for Tulo might effectively reload a roster…

9:15	Comment From Yed Nost Steamer says Brad Miller will be the 2nd best shortstop in baseball in 2015… thoughts?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t agree with it, but I like it. To me, it’s Tulo then a big group of lots of other players. Miller might end up in that group, but you’ve also got guys like, say, Desmond who seem superior

9:17	Comment From sadboy 🙁 how much will tyler clippard get in free agency?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: he’s not a free agent

9:17	Comment From Xolo Is MLB completely out of touch putting playoff games on a cable channel that not everyone gets or is that just organized spots of the 21st century?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: MLB likes the money Fox gave them and the rest will sort itself out

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: It’s fun, searching for FS1 is kind of like an Easter egg hunt in October

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I get it! Who knew?

9:19	Comment From Brian In addition to Holland or Davis, what would it take for the Royals to get Pederson from the Dodgers this winter?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t thought this through enough but Duffy would be an interesting exchange

9:20	Comment From Natitude Adjuster Steamer is out: Mookie Betts is projected by Steamer for 4.3 WAR in 647 PA in 2015. Wow, he’s fun.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I think Steamer is a little aggressive with its young players, and we saw a lot of highly-touted rookies struggle in 2014, but, yeah, Betts sure seems fairly safe, and he’s already proven a lot of himself

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: The Red Sox are going to be good again in 2015 and Betts is going to be a major reason why

9:21	Comment From jlmwbs What am I looking for if I am on Baseball Savant?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: PITCHf/x information, probably

9:22

Comment From Hrkac Circus
I know it’s mostly semantics, but I was arguing with a friend that winning the World Series doesn’t mean a team is the best in baseball. Is there any way to approach this? He won’t be convinced that short series are mostly random, and it isn’t necessarily about who the better team is, but simply who gets hot at the right time.

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: The playoffs basically reward the best team in October, which is one month out of a possible seven. Rosters are also used differently than they are during the year, and with unbalanced playoff schedules you can have effects from particular matchups. Bad teams don’t win the World Series, but there’s just no way that a tournament format like we have will always reliably crown the best team in the league. Nor should we want it to!

9:24	Comment From ThePuck I am so happy for Dayton Moore and the whole Royals organization! Not a question, just yeah…great job!

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I’m happy for them too. This is good for baseball

9:24	Comment From Matt I actually have hockey questions instead of baseball! Is Gamecenter Live worth the money?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I love it. If you like MLB.tv, you’ll like Gamcenter Live. Tends to be kind of shitty around the season’s first week, but it’s an auto-renewal for me

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: If you don’t think you’ll be watching that much hockey though, it’s not cheap. So think about your intentions before you buy

9:26	Comment From Erik Moneyball 2014 is nothing like Moneyball 2002 and thats the point, right? Shifting to find inefficiencies. Why do so many in the media think its a static idea?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Well, the general ideas are similar. The specific ideas are different.

9:27	Comment From Xolo Are QOs one size fits all or are they adjusted by position?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The former

9:27	Comment From STiVo Have you read any of John Krakauer’s books (e.g., Into the Wild; Into Thin Air; Three Cups of Deceipt)? Just finished Into the Wild, which is great.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely love him

9:27	Comment From Rated Rookie Do any of the professional sports have a playoff format that “rewards the best team”?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know other sports very well, but I think you have to look at how much luck there is in a given game. It feels like basketball does a pretty good job of rewarding the best because the number of opportunities in each game drives down the noise, and then they play full series

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Basketball seems, to me, to be less conducive to upsets

9:28	Comment From AJT Do you think playing in the postseason previous is some or any indication of postseason performance going forward? Does it matter if you’ve “been there”?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: No one’s ever found any such evidence that means anything. The best indicator of your future playoff performance is your past overall performance

9:29	Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame Chapman/Kimbrel seem like neat trade chips. But they also seem like players where the current team would likely ask more than other teams are willing to give, so deals are unlikely. Agree?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect teams are nervous about paying a lot of resources for a one-inning closer, but the other argument is that it doesn’t get better than those two so maybe someone would be convinced by the Royals and Orioles’ bullpen-heavy success in 2014

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I would love to see trade proposals around the league for Aroldis Chapman. Get on it, Jocketty and internet hackers

9:30	Comment From Jon (DC) Nats percentages of moving on now?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Not meaningfully different from what a coin would tell you. They need to win two, so probably 25-30%

9:31	Comment From Alex You think Bryant should come to terms with the Cubs on an extension before the season? I seriously doubt it will actually happen (Boras client) but man, I really, really want him up to start the season.

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: If he’s not up to start the season, he’ll be up to start May. But the Cubs seem to be making noise about contending in 2015, so they might just go ahead and put the best roster on the field right out of the gate. We’ll see what else they do to address the roster but they could break camp with Bryant and work on a contract from there

9:32	Comment From AJT Speaking of the Reds, do you believe in a Jay Bruce comeback? His season was awful, but he does have a decent track record before. Chalk this season up to injury, or is there more to it?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I definitely think he’s better than that. Injury cost him and he never really found a groove

9:33	Comment From The Blair Witch Which team is less fascinating to you: Reds or Padres?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I’m biased in the Padres’ favor from having lived in San Diego for a lot of my life. So as boring as they are, I can never find them quite so boring

9:33	Comment From David If baseball IS what’s stressing me out, can we talk about it?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Lay down right here on the opposite couch, and open up your heart

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: In his first three starts of the playoffs last year, he allowed one earned run in 19 innings, with 23 strikeouts

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: One on short rest

9:34	Comment From Art Vandelay I really hope Kershaw pitches a gem tonight to just kill this choker narrative right now.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: …that’s what that was to…

9:35	Comment From Ringtone Composer Are you going to see any Arizona Fall League games in person this year?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t go to the Phoenix area unless I have to

9:35	Comment From Xolo What about the Padres talking about dangling Kennedy/Wisler for a bat? What kind of reloading is that?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Kennedy’s a free agent in a year, and the Padres probably won’t compete hard in 2015, so they might as well see what they can grab

9:36	Comment From Bryce Harpers stepsister What’s the difference between Steamer and Steamer600?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Steamer600 gives everyone the same playing time so you can more conveniently compare their performance projections

9:36	Comment From Don Am I selfish for wishing that the division series were best of 7?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Selfish isn’t the word

9:38	Comment From Jake deBomb thoughts on the FA contract that Markakis ends up signing?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: Might end up back in Baltimore on a QO — he seems to love it there, and of course now there are better feelings than ever. If he were to hit the market, he’d be hurt by the possible compensation tag, but as much as teams would be aware of his mediocre defense and absent power, what makes him interesting is he’s a contact hitter. Could see a shift toward that direction in terms of market preferences, so I could see Markakis getting two or three years

9:41	Comment From Matt And, for an actual baseball question, best guess at the contract length and AAV for Yasmany Tomas, as well as which team signs him?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I really can’t predict which team he goes to, but I can predict that he’ll get seven years and something very close to $100 million

9:41	Comment From Art Vandelay I might be in the minority, but why would a team want to trade for a big money 30 year old shortstop with a terrible injury history?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: He’s amazing

9:42	Comment From Bryce Harpers mom How well will Kershaw pitch today? Seems like there’s so much working against him, not to mention short rest.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Last October he started on short rest and spun a good six innings. He’s still Clayton Kershaw. I think the Dodgers win

9:43	Comment From mtsw If you’re the Orioles, do you start Caleb Jospeh at C for his superior defense against the run-happy Royals or does Josephs .272 OPS since August mean you need to go with Hundley?

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: Probably Joseph — it’s not like Hundley has been a great hitter either. Even though most stealing is done against the pitcher, and not the catcher, I think it makes sense here to go with the best defensive catcher possible and the Orioles will just have to get their offense from some place else

9:45	Comment From Jon (DC) But a 9 pm ET start for a game involving an East Coast team? Why don’t you just giveaway footballs to the first 10000 kids at the game too?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball isn’t in competition with football. Football won years ago. You can’t please everybody when you have a series between teams literally on opposite sides of the continent

9:47	Comment From Cutch Which outfield is better: McCutchen, Marte, Polanco, or Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I say the Marlins by a hair, but Polanco can change things awful fast. I’ll give the Pirates the edge if Polanco shows more in the first couple months

9:48

Comment From David
I get FS1. I don’t get MLBN. I can order MLBN as part of a Sports Tier package. Except I couldn’t, because Verizon’s billing department thought I already subscribed (though wasn’t charging me). By the time it was all sorted out the game was over. I don’t know if I hate MLB or Verizon more right now.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Verizon

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Verizon is who you hate more right now

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: according to me

9:49	Comment From Mike Jeff, what is the percent chance someone signs Delmon Young to a multi year contract after this season?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Young’s been on six consecutive one-year contracts, and that’s about to become seven

9:49	Comment From Prich JS- “Realistically, there’s no such thing as one move that reloads a roster”… Bartolo Colon and Erik Bedard say hello…

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: First of all, those were years ago, and second of all, they didn’t instantly reload the active roster

9:49	Comment From NHL Fan How do you feel about the Sens this year? The Ryan signing is pretty huge…

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I’m dumb enough about hockey to think that Ottawa has a chance every single season. Stanley Cup!!

9:50	Comment From David Steamer 2015 projects Stanton for …. 0. Clearly there’s some work to be done yet 🙂

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that’s a depth chart thing. Steamer is pulling playing time from the depth charts, so we all need to update our depth charts to start looking toward 2015 instead of 2014

9:50	Comment From Matt Also, as someone from Seattle, I have no hockey team to root for, but I love the game itself. Any suggestions for teams to watch? I’ve just watched whatever teams were on TV for years now without any preference.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly I think you should watch games, watch highlights, and just choose to focus on whoever happens to grab your attention the most. I can’t predict what you’re going to find most appealing

9:51	Comment From Rated Rookie What’s your take playing Grichuk over Taveras? Is it a postseason tactic (better defense, perhaps)? A harbinger of future playing time distribution? Something else?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Grichuk has been better this year than Taveras has

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: There’s also the righty/lefty thing

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Matheny believes that, right now, this week, Grichuk gives the Cardinals a better chance than Taveras does. I”m not in love with Grichuk’s profile, but it’s not like Taveras has done much to earn the benefit of the doubt

9:53	Comment From Ringtone Composer I read Wendy Thurm’s cool article on divvying up postseason ticket revenues. Any idea how each individual player’s sum gets determined–do all players from a team get equal proportional shares?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: http://m.mlb.com/news/artic…

9:53	Comment From THE average sports fan Last week you were asked who would be the JD Martinez of 2015. You answered Cameron Maybin. Blind guess or something more?

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: Mostly blind guess — not nearly as informed as Dan Farnsworth picking Martinez last December. But I think Maybin’s always had the physical ability, and it seems he’s struggled with injuries and consistent timing. Offensively, I feel like he’s the right adjustment away from like a 120 wRC+

9:54	Comment From Bryce Harpers mom A friend of mine told me that strikeouts are overrated. What’s the best argument I can give him that they’re not? I feel like I should start with the fact that BABIP is .000 for Ks.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: They are overrated for hitters, and not for pitchers. Just, yeah, talk about how strikeouts are basically automatic outs. I don’t know how you go about proving to him, by words, that bad contact isn’t really much of a sustainable skill, but if you have time to show him some BABIPs…

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe just demonstrate simply somehow that the lowest ERAs in baseball tend to get posted by guys with high strikeout rates

9:57

Comment From Logan Davis
It definitely seems weird that Miller’s rated as the second best shortstop per 600 PA, but his individual projection looks eminently reasonable. We know he can be a slightly above average hitter – he did it in 2013, and the only things that stopped him in 2014 were a .270 BABIP and Chris Taylor’s playing time. We think he’s a solid gloveman. That’s +4 WAR at SS. The wmore surprising projections are Desmond’s and Reyes’.

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: Steamer does see him chopping off a good number of strikeouts. Nothing about Miller’s projection is unreasonable — it’s just that 4 WAR is hard to do, so it’s probably like a 60th-70th percentile projection for him, and there are so many other similarly-talented shortstops that it’s startling to see Miller second

9:58	Comment From Mike Am I allowed to say ‘vipbox’ in your chat? It’s a fun way to watch sports on the CPU.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: let’s find out

9:58	Comment From Bryce Harpers uncle How can Steamer already have projections out, when we don’t even know which team guys like Scherzer will be playing for? Are the projections not league-dependent?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I’m guessing they are, but individual players make so little difference, and Steamer will be updated many times over anyhow

9:58	Comment From Larry Hildo Over/under Lorenzo Cain successful diving catches in the ALCS: 3?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: 4