Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/16/18

November 16, 2018

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:04	Matt : Bartolo Colon is objectively better than Nathan Eovaldi change my mind

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I neither want to nor have to

9:04	AJ Preller: Have you figured out how I can get Syndergaard yet?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Well, you have the most valuable farm system in baseball

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: That would be a good place to start

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: As discussed earlier, the biggest issue here is that the Padres have outfielders and the Mets don’t need outfielders, but you can still find a fit here. Involve another team. Maybe the Cleveland team!

9:06	TooDamnTall: Sad to hear that Carson is leaving, he’s a gem.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a testament to David Appelman that every single person who has wound up leaving FanGraphs has agonized over the decision, even despite the wonderful opportunities ahead. This is a hard place to leave, even when a freakin baseball team is throwing its resources at you

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Personally, I’ll miss Carson at the FanGraphs get-togethers. It’s a rare sort of internet writer whose presence is more enjoyable in the flesh

9:09	MK: Would the Giants trade posey? Would he be a good option for Nats? Catcher in 2019 then eventual transition to 1B post ryan zimmerman

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: You can’t rule out any move, especially any move by a front office under a brand-new decision maker, but Posey has full no-trade protection, and he just *feels* like one of those guys who’s going to stick around. Worth a phone call or two, but if I were the Nationals, I wouldn’t expend too much effort if the Giants are reluctant

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know why I said phone call when I meant text message

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: They’re always text messages

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Seems to me the Giants will make a Bumgarner decision before they ever make a Posey decision

9:13

Jack: The Blue Jays should try to trade for James Paxton, right? They obviously need starting pitching, and while Vlad is clearly untouchable, they still have enough in their farm system to make a deal. The Jays may not look like they’re in a position where it makes sense to trade a big package of prospects for a guy with two years of control left, but given the giant maple leaf tattoo on his arm, I’m assuming Paxton is a proud Canadian who would be open to signing an extension with Canada’s only MLB team. Acquiring not only an ace but a Canadian ace is one way they could bring some excitement back to the fan base after they suffered the biggest attendance drop of any team this year. Are they really just going to sit around and watch the Yankees trade for him and let the rest of the division continue to pull further and further away from them?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: You’ve touched on part of the problem — if you’re the Jays, you can be reasonably happy with your core talent, but you’re looking up at the Yankees and Red Sox, plus the Rays are entering a competitive window. It’s already a really tough division

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Which doesn’t mean a Paxton trade wouldn’t make sense. Paxton probably would be open to signing an extension. But other teams are probably more incentivized to make the move, meaning other teams would probably leave the Blue Jays outbid

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Toronto’s not in a position to willingly overpay here

9:15	Stuafoo: If we start with Paxton for Gray, who comes back to the Ms to make this even?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Bare minimum, Sheffield and Frazier. And Frazier right now is a complete unknown, with low trade value

9:16	BK: Who is the biggest name to get traded this offseason? Realmuto? Kluber? other?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Realmuto is probably going to be the best player traded, but I don’t know if he’s the “biggest name”

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: James Paxton

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: potentially Paul Goldschmidt

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think Corey Kluber gets traded, but I could see Carlos Carrasco on the move

9:17	Ross: Who wins 100+ games again next year: Red Sox, Yankees, neither or both

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Yankees

9:18	Safety Stegosaurus: Jeff Mathis two year deal wooooo

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s anything to say about Mathis’ bat that hasn’t been said, but the Rangers have needed pitching help very, very badly. This will indirectly provide it

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a bad pitching staff, and a relatively inexperienced pitching staff. I’m open to the idea that Jeff Mathis might improve the rate and the height of their collective development

9:19

tfw: What would you think of something like Chris Taylor for Francisco Cervelli, Richard Rodriguez, Max Moroff, and Lolo Sanchez? The Dodgers probably don’t _need_ Taylor, and Cervelli fills in at catcher until Smith/Keibert are ready, Rodriguez is a great reliever add, Moroff has similar MiLB numbers to Muncy, and Lolo is a solid young outfield prospect that they seem a bit light on.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Max Moroff is on the Indians now

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s sub in Erik Gonzalez, I guess

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think the Pirates would be interested. They want to be competitive in 2019 and they can’t keep getting rid of years of team control, like they did in the Archer move. That’s not how a team like that should operate

9:22	Russell: Any plans to go to Tokyo or London for the MLB games?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: No!

9:23	Remy LeBeau: What would it take for the Mariners to pry Austin Hedges away from the Padres?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the problem: look at the Mariners

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: This would have to be part of, say, a hypothetical Paxton trade

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: The Padres would be interested in very few of the Mariners’ prospects. And they’re probably higher now on Hedges than they were a few months ago anyway

9:24	Dustin: This is not a question, but rather a request: Please do not abandon us for a front office! YOUR READERS ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOUR CAREER, JEFF.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: How many front offices allow their employees to do things like “work remotely” and “go backpacking” and “close their computer”

9:27	Tim: Say the Rays offer Josh Donaldson, a three-year, $60 million contract with an opt out after the first year. Does that make sense for both sides?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think the Rays would want to run that risk for 2020/2021, if Donaldson keeps getting injured. They’d probably rather just offer a big, flat deal for one or two years

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: The Rays right now are projected for a payroll of like $41 million, which is laughably small. Arbitration starts hitting for real two and three years out. Might even make a case here for a front-load

9:30	matt: Jeff, are you the next Fangraphs writer to leave for a major league team?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: You’d think Carson’s news would be all the proof you need that these things are completely unpredictable

9:30	Xolo: What do you think of the Padres’ apparent strategy of trying to trade for an All-Star (Syndergaard, Suarez) after the season they had? Are they getting ahead of themselves? And would they be better going after not quite All-Stars (Eovaldi) in FA?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Just generally speaking, the Padres are looking to be aggressive. They’re looking to get better, and Preller gets in contact with everyone, about everybody

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: They’re coming off a down year, sure. And the Dodgers are going to be strong again. But the Padres have money to spend, and the game’s best farm system, and I bet they don’t feel real threatened in 2019 by the Rockies, Diamondbacks, or Giants

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: With a good offseason, the Padres could creep north of .500 as soon as next year. It’s worth working toward

9:34	Kvn: So, uh, is Mike Elias the GM of the Orioles or not?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Sure seems like it. But maybe he’s failed the physical

9:35	The Ghost of Jio Mier: I hate to ask, but it’s killing me not knowing what is going on with the Astros’ front office. Hints have seemingly been dropped that there’s something at play there outside of guys leaving for higher posts elsewhere- is there trouble in paradise?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have any meaningful connections to Houston, but if I had to speculate, some people haven’t loved working under Luhnow. And then, of course, there’s the part where the Astros have been immensely successful, so some individuals would be pursued for other openings, elsewhere, by teams who want to pry some of that knowledge away

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: The most successful front offices tend not to stick together forever

9:39

John: I know the offseason hasn’t even really started yet, but as of now, what percentages would you give the following scenarios for 2019:

1.) The Indians don’t win the AL Central

2.) The Astros don’t win the AL West

3.) The Dodgers don’t win the NL West

4.) Neither the Red Sox or Yankees win the AL East

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: 1) 20%

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: 2) 40%

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: 3) 30%

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: 4) 20%

9:44	bcb: Where have all the cowboys gone?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: https://lompocrecord.com/news/local/features/last-cowboys/part_1/last-…

9:45	Michael J: Since they extended Kershaw and re-signed Ryu, what other plans (other than Harper) should they pursue? I thought Charlie Morton on a 2 year deal would be nice, but it seems like they don’t need anymore starting pitching. Maybe Herrera or Miller on a one year deal to bolster the pen?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Definitely wouldn’t be surprised to see a sexy addition or two to the bullpen. The Dodgers have prided themselves on turning lesser names into capable relievers, but they could always use more depth

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: They also need a catcher. They aren’t going to run with Barnes and Farmer

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know if they’ll go so far as to trade for Realmuto, but someone like Gomes is an option

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Ditto Cervelli

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Castro and Martin would be somewhat interesting buy-lows

9:49

Buck Schowalter: I’m always surprised at how slow free agency is for the first month. Logic seems to dictate that unless the offers out there are exactly fair to both sides, someone should benefit from agreeing to a deal sooner rather than later, especially considering what has happened to some FAs in the past, right?

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s easier for teams to predict the layout of the trade market than the free-agent market. You don’t always know what’s going to end up looking “fair” — the Phillies, last year, thought they had a good deal with Carlos Santana, and then by the end of the offseason it looked like an overpay

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: But front offices are texting about trades all the time. The trade market is just ahead of the free-agent market, in terms of how it’s developed. And then you have more “hidden” factors, like the GM meetings, and Thanksgiving, and November being the prime hiring month

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: A few free agents will jump at early opportunities, and maybe we’ll see more of that as we go along, lest free agents be left out in the cold, but teams generally want to not pay free-agent prices if they can help it

9:55	Mike: What are the chances the Braves make a deal to trade Johan Camargo? If they did, what would they need in return? Could you see a 1-for-1 Hunter Renfroe for Camargo deal happen?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I’d rather have Camargo of the two, but you can see the outline of something realistic here. Maybe the Braves also get a reliever. Both players have the same number of team-control years remaining

9:57	TooDamnTall: I’d like to give you my Xmas wishlist for new writer hires. Someone with experience and insight into player development would be aces, even if that isn’t the traditional analytical domain of Fangraphs.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: FanGraphs is looking. But you don’t find many people with baseball experience looking to work on the public side. At least, not many good people, with constructive and insightful things to say

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: The good ones tend to stay in the industry, once they’re in the industry

9:59	Max: Thoughts on Elias spearheading Baltimore FO?