Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/10/17

November 10, 2017

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06	Creg: Does Cozart continue hitting enough to be a realistic 3B option for someone?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine he’s going to stay at shortstop, and I imagine he’s going to stay with the Reds

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think that’s anything like a guarantee, but it’s my current best guess

9:07	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: We’re a long way out from the MLB All-Star Game, but should there be a substitution rule where one [1] player can be reentered into the game? It’s an exhibition and we all want to see the best players in the tightest spot anyways, right?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure there is such a thing as a “tight spot” in an All-Star Game, especially now that it’s been stripped of any bigger-picture significance

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: And besides, everyone in the All-Star Game is a good player to begin with!

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: This year’s ASG ended with Andrew Miller facing Joey Votto and Cody Bellinger

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: That was in the 10th inning. Seems good enough to me

9:10	BJOGC: Eric Hosmer has never been good 2 years in a row. His above average years have all been in odd numbered years. Theoretically, what would happen if he were to be signed by the Giants?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: He would hit six home runs

9:12	divine chanteuse: What happened to Evan Longoria last year? I feel as though the Rays chances are tied directly to his bat and he was below average for the first time. Is this the new normal for him?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Not just the surface numbers — Longoria also fared much worse in terms of exit velocity and expected wOBA

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It kind of reads as if he sacrificed batted-ball authority for contact. Which, in this day and age, isn’t a terrible idea, but it didn’t work out for him

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: He’s still just newly 32 so I’d give him some of the benefit of the doubt, but I’d project him as only a slightly above-average hitter now. I think he’s done being something terrific

9:13	Jaff: Should the Giants look at someone like Keon Broxton instead of going after someone like Lorenzo Cain and losing a draft pick?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, I’m biased, so I think so. And if not Broxton, someone very similar in Michael A. Taylor. But I don’t think the Giants want to embrace so many strikeouts

9:15	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: You used to live in San Diego, right? Making the move in a few months. What is the best stuff that I wouldn’t have thought of or sought out on my own?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: There’s some incredible food tucked into some wholly unremarkable strip malls

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Get outside of the city, too. If you can come to appreciate the desert landscape there’s some adequate wilderness

9:17	Kevin: I noticed you guys didn’t have anything on the Girardi firing. Seemed like awkward timing on the Yankees’ part. Do you think Cashman had simply made his mind up earlier in the season?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think FanGraphs in particular ever has that much to say about a manager hiring or firing. We openly admit that we basically have no idea

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: In the Yankees’ case, it does read as if the team was just looking for any reason to move on. Most managers don’t last as long in one place as Girardi did. Sides grow tired of one another

9:18	BPhoenix 2042: When you first started at fangraphs, how did they respond to your more humorous articles or frivolous subjects? Was it a tough sell or did they embrace that from the start?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Probably the best thing about working here is I can write almost anything I want

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously there are limits, and I don’t want to write something that’s a complete waste of everyone’s time, but I don’t remember the last time an idea I had was shot down

9:19	Bubba: What do you think the Mets should do this offseason?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Depth, relievers, and health

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: They don’t need to make a splash. Everything is going to come down to how well guys like Conforto and Syndergaard recover and perform. That’s it

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I know that’s kind of boring, and separately annoying because it’s unpredictable, but it’s the truth

9:20	rhendricks: Who is Josh Lowey and why is he projected to be one of the top 30 SP in baseball next season according to Steamer600?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I was recently wondering that myself!

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: He appears to be someone who has been dominant in Mexico, with an ugly stint in the KBO

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I, uh, wouldn’t put too much stock in that projection

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: For whatever it’s worth though he did lead all starters in the Mexican league in K-BB%

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: This feels like another Cesar Valdez

9:26	Zonk: Is Ichiro at the end of the road? Can he still contribute on the field?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: We’re reaching an interesting point, where Ichiro will have to find that balance between his desire to keep playing but also his own personal pride

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Like, I don’t think Ichiro wants to go the route of signing a minor-league contract with an NRI

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: To his credit, he’s still okay in the field, and he still makes an above-average amount of contact. Ichiro’s skills haven’t completely eroded. But he’s never been the classic leader in the clubhouse. He’s a role model, but in an atypical way

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Gun to my head, I’d say Ichiro gets one more season. He’s not going to make it to 50

9:29	Nelson: Every other sport has a flurry of FA activity in the first day the period opens. Why is baseball so different?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head, I don’t actually know

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I know the other major sports have shorter free-agency windows, but I don’t know enough about how they operate to be able to tell you what makes baseball unique

9:29	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Who is worse for his sport: Tony Clark, Roger Goodell?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like Goodell, but maybe because there’s just more of a track record there

9:30	Mets defense: If Sandy signs Jarrod dyson to platoon with Lagares, signs ToddFather for third, shifts Asdrubel to second, plus a full season of Rosario at short, can I make a dramatic turnaround?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Sure. The Mets just had arguably the worst team defense in baseball. Even getting to average next season would be a monumental improvement

9:31	divine chanteuse: 1.) How likely is Archer to be traded?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: 60%?

9:32

Lunar verLander: Based on my understanding on wOBA, the linear weights change on a year-to-year basis. Would it be more accurate to calculate those weights on some sort of rolling 365-day basis, instead of just the data from the previous season? I imagine that it would be able to capture the effects of, say, hypothetical changes to the baseball quicker than just using the previous year’s data, though I’m not sure how much of an effect it would have.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Very very very small effect

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: And it’s not like we commonly expect a dramatic difference in the way the actual baseball plays

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Here are the year-by-year linear weights http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Compared to 2014, the value of a home run in 2017 was down about 7%. Not super meaningful, and this would affect everyone’s homers equally

9:34	Raindog: What kind of prospects would Machado bring back if dealt now? What kind if dealt in July?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Figure Machado will get paid something like, I don’t know, $20 million in this last year of team control

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably going to be worth something more like $50 million

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you’re looking at a package headlined by a clearly elite prospect. It would be headlined by a good pitching prospect or a fairly good position-player prospect, and then you’d get another couple interesting prospects to fill out the package

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: This is the trouble with trading guys in their contract seasons. Especially position players, who you can’t leverage for a bigger price around the deadline

9:37	divine chanteuse: 1.) How likely is Archer to be traded? 2.) Who are the contenders for him? 3.) Who is the most likely of the contenders to get him and 4.) What would a package from that team look like?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: You can’t ask four questions in one question. That’s cheating!

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I’d surmise, for now, the leading contender would be the Cubs

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: They’ve been linked to Archer before, and it would allow them to skip the Darvish free-agent frenzy

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: The Braves, of course, have also been linked before several times, but I can’t imagine they’re looking at that kind of splash now, given their circumstances

9:39	Zonk: Rank these contracts by order of bad-ness: Pujols, Cabrera, Chris Davis, Heyward, Cano. Also, are these the 5 worst contracts in baseball, or am I missing someone?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I think Heyward is the least bad. He’s still just 28 years old where all the other guys are well into their 30s

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: The worst one comes down to Pujols vs. Cabrera. For now, I’d say it’s clearly Pujols, but if Cabrera has another lousy year then he could step forward, since his commitment is two years longer (from now)

9:41	Vince Clortho: Because life is disappointing, it is unlikely I will get to watch all of Boston’s young and good baseballing men grow old together. Do you think they are likely to move on from one of their young core in this offseason? Any obvious matchups in a trade?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing original here but it seems like JBJ might be the most obvious player to move

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this is the time to try to move on from Xander Bogaerts, and obviously Mookie Betts isn’t going anywhere

9:43	Hae-Lo Dee: Lots of chatter that Seattle could be the most likely place to land Darvish. Does that make any sense to you?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Not so much sense that I think it’s likely to happen

9:44	Brett W: Any thoughts on the Ryan Schultz situation?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I had to Google to find out what you’re talking about

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: So I guess no

9:45	Q-Ball: Who will sign the most regrettable contract this offseason?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Shohei Ohtani from the player perspective, Jake Arrieta from the team perspective

9:45	Motor are Mindy: I am very impressed that you did manage to avoid writing an article on Jason Vargas all season long. Just throwing that out there

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: First-half ERA: 2.62. Second-half ERA: 6.38!

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: First-half xFIP: 4.78. Second-half xFIP: 5.16

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Never believe in a low home-run rate

9:47	Raindog: Is it just me, or is Jaime Garcia actually a pretty ok back of rotation starter? Like, obviously better than Vargas or Cashner?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I think he belongs to the same general group. Adequate No. 5 who you’d never want starting for you in the playoffs. Not a guy who should ever see a lineup a third time through

9:50	Natsfan: Michael A Taylor was the best defender in the NL by UZR/150 by a wide margin, and Anthody Rendon was the best infielder in the NL by a wider margin. If I choose to get miffed about Gold Glove awards, is this a reasonable line of argument?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that would be your starting point

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Now, Arenado destroyed Rendon by DRS, so there’s that

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: And I’m not sure Taylor was better than Billy Hamilton, who didn’t even win, himself

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Taylor had a case, although he was presumably hurt by his more limited playing time

9:51	Hae-Lo Dee: Does Jose Abreu get traded this offseason, or does the glut of first basemen on the market kill his value enough that Chicago holds on?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, feels like there’s too many first basemen around. And while Abreu is good, he’s probably not great enough to really stand out

9:52	Natsfan: Michael A Taylor is better than Byron Buxton. You heard it here first!

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: You’re right, I did

9:52	Brett W: If the Marlins and Cubs were definitely going to engage in a Stanton for Heyward swap, what other players and cash are moving in both directions?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: As I’ve thought about it more, one of the commenters from last week was correct. Heyward doesn’t make much sense as a swap here because the Marlins would be moving Stanton specifically to shed money

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: If the Marlins are trying to get their payroll under $90 million, I don’t know how you do that while bringing Heyward on board

9:53	Chris Miller: What do you expect Stanton to cost the Cardinals in prospects and taking on remaining contract?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: The return package is probably going to feel pretty damn light unless the Marlins assume a ton of the cost

9:54	Stenzy: Would a Denard Span to Baltimore make any sense? Lefty with only one year left on deal.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Classic super boring Orioles possibility

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: The rumor I saw yesterday linking them to Vargas and Cashner just bummed me out

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Just sign Jarrod Dyson or something

9:55	groucho: What’s a more likely scenario for a Stanton to StL trade – The cardinals give more/marlins eat more money, or the cardinals give less/marlins eat less money?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I think the latter

9:55

Nick: Hey Jeff – this past postseason we saw the home team have an extremely high winrate. Does this benefit MLB by engaging fans better? Do you think MLB has an active interest in increasing the home field advantage in the sport overall to encourage fans to attend games more often? Is there even a reasonable way to do that?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you can really do anything meaningful to boost the home-field advantage. And while this October’s home winning percentage was high, it was low in both 2015 and 2016

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: It might — might — be preferable if the home team won like 60% of the time, but I don’t know how you get there without some weird-ass rules change

9:56	Trixie: Where do you think Freddy Galvis plays next year? Does he stay with the Phillies?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I have not had and will not have any thoughts on this

9:57	Silly Beane: Oakland needs OF help. What can the A’s offer Milwuakee or St. Louis for some of their young OF surpluses?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Saw something yesterday linking the A’s to Yelich/Ozuna, which makes a certain amount of sense

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I think the A’s would love to move Ryon Healy, although his value is limited. They have more young talent in house now than they’ve been given credit for, so some sort of package could be assembled

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they’d turn around and move Jorge Mateo. Maybe they try to sell someone on Boog Powell’s 108 wRC+