Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/4/14

November 4, 2014

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Time for baseball chat

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Live on your internet

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: If you want to deceive yourself, this is technically a postseason baseball chat, or a preseason baseball chat

9:07	Comment From Bret Hi Jeff – is there a reasonable value of X for the Jays that you think would balance this equation: JA Happ + X = Howie Kendrick?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Happ, rather obviously, is worth less than Kendrick; Happ, rather obviously, is also due less salary than Kendrick. Because Kendrick has just the one year left, he can’t pull back a whole lot in a deal, so in this particular proposal you’d be looking at something like a B prospect most likely

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Now, I’m not sure whether the Angels would go for that — Kendrick will be in demand and they might be able to find a young big-leaguer with years of team control. But the Jays definitely have what would be necessary

9:09	Comment From Caballo What happens to Pedro Alvarez? Can he turn himself into the next Edwin Encarnacion?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: You always bet against a player who is not very good turning into a player who is very good. Encarnacion strikes out like half as often as Alvarez does. But I know that’s not really your question, specifically

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: When you look at what Alvarez is going to cost through arbitration, and when you look at what, say, Josh Harrison and Ike Davis can do, Alvarez looks like a difficult continued fit in Pittsburgh. The problem is that his trade value is down coming off of, you know, what happened, but no one in the game doubts his power ability so if the Pirates feel like moving Alvarez a market would certainly develop

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a really interesting project, but he might be getting too expensive for the team that he’s on

9:12	Comment From Billy Butler I’ve heard they play baseball in Seattle

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Just resumed last year after like a decade-long hiatus

9:13	Comment From Guest I’ll admit ti was only a casual comp, using Fangraphs comp feature, but Torii Hunter and Delmon Young had mostly similar seasons in 2014. Be interesting to see what the market says about that comp.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: You could say this: Steamer projects Hunter for a 111 wRC+. Young, 98

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Young continues to survive on one-year contracts. Somehow he’s still just 29. Hunter will also get a one-year contract but I presume his will be worth some more millions

9:15	Comment From kevinthecomic Does Michael Cuddyer become the first ever player to accept a QO?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Odds-on favorite, although Robertson is a challenger

9:15	Comment From Guest Do you give the M’s any shot at signing Tomas?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Some, absolutely, but my brain keeps saying Phillies

9:15	Comment From Forsyth Hi Jeff – I saw Steamer’s projection of Mookie Betts dropped his GP from around 150 to 97. Is there any reason why the projection would drop his games by so much?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: That wasn’t a Steamer adjustment, that was a FanGraphs depth chart adjustment. The latter is up to us; the former is up to a set of equations

9:16	Comment From Derek at 15.3 M Cuddyer needs to be worth what? 2.5 Wins? Projected at .9 WAR, what the hell are the Rockies doing??

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: About two wins or so. Over the last four years, Cuddyer has averaged roughly 2.5 WAR per 600 PA. Now obviously, he’s older than he’s ever been, and you can’t discount the Steamer projection, but the Rockies presumably love what Cuddyer has done, and I think they think 2014 was mostly tanked by injuries so maybe keeping the band together can allow them to make a 2015 run of some decency. Also, they now have some flexibility to move an excess outfielder in a trade for something else

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies aren’t going to have a lot of luck luring free agents to Colorado, so it would be smart for them to focus more on trade channels

9:19	Comment From Guest Are expectations for the 2015 cubs being set too high? I don

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs should be pretty good if they put together the offseason they expect. I don’t think the expectations of that hypothetical Cubs roster are too high. However, I think the expectations might be too high regarding the likelihood of the Cubs having such an offseason. It’s probably not really a given that they land a Lester or a Scherzer or a Zimmermann or whatever. These are great pitchers, who lots of teams will want. Sometimes interested teams get shut out.

9:21	Comment From Alex Is it unfair to still question the age of latin american players? I have serious doubts that Panda who has regressed for 3 straight years is 28.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Sandoval’s been the exact same player three years in a row

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Like, the exact same

9:22	Comment From BrewGa Could you see the Brewers in on any particular free agents this offseason?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: There’s really not a ton for them to do, barring trades that shake the roster up. I could see the pursuit of a handful of role players but I don’t see something impactful on the way

9:23	Comment From a preseasoner which high risk high reward starting pitcher should the Ms sign?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: #BrandonMcCarthy

9:23	Comment From Cristal When is something going to happen??? I’m starting to freak out!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: You mean like the trade over the weekend of two established big-leaguers? Or the Cubs giving $25 million to maybe the best manager in the sport?

9:24	Comment From Billy Will the Dodgers free Joc and give him 500 MLB ABs next year? Should I even be that excited about what he’d give?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: All about how easily Friedman can clear Kemp and Ethier. Ethier’s going to require a hell of a lot of work, but Kemp would be a pretty easy sell assuming the Dodgers eat some money

9:25	Comment From Billy Will Buxton/Sano start in AA no matter how Spring Training goes, or could they start at AAA with a good spring?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I’m assuming Double-A for both. Buxton has all of three plate appearances at the level. They’ll probably be more willing to be aggressive with Sano, but I see Double-A stints until they push their way up, which might not take more than a few weeks

9:26	Comment From Cody Is it reasonable to believe that the Royals make a move that makes them better next year?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: Better than what? Better than what they were in 2014? That depends how you evaluate what they actually were. But the Royals are going to have maybe $20 million of payroll flexibility to move around, on top of losing Shields/Butler, so yeah, they can solidify that roster if they work hard at it

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: There’s one of several teams I’d like to see sign Davis Ross so that they can give Salvador Perez a damn rest

9:28	Comment From Northsider Could you see the Cubs going after Ichiro as a banch acquisition? Well-liked low-strikeout veteran to mentor a very young OF.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Ruggiano/Sweeney are already around as half-decent outfield bench depth and Ichiro has never once been confused for a clubhouse mentor

9:30	Comment From Brian Cashman Are we really going to sit out big-ticket free agency?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t the Yankees say a year ago they weren’t going to spend very much, before they spent hundreds of millions of dollars?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I guess it depends how you define big-ticket free agency. Headley and McCarthy are top targets. They’re presumably going to keep Robertson, and I expect they’ll at least make a few phone calls to the agent for Hanley Ramirez

9:31	Comment From spclxk what is AA looking to do by trading Adam Lind for financial flexibility? Does the trade look as bad as jays think?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Adam Lind isn’t that valuable going forward. They said they were just going to decline his option if they couldn’t move him, so it’s pretty clear how the Jays see Lind for 2015. They don’t want a dedicated DH, and they like having a little more money to move around

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: I know that Lind’s coming off a career-best wRC+, but he didn’t hit for much power, he was a platoon player, and his numbers were lifted by his BABIP. He doesn’t play good defense and he has a bad back. He’s a fine plug-in player, but the Brewers were more desperate than the Jays for this sort of profile

9:33	Comment From Curious Remind us…do you take fantasy questions, or no? How about fantasy questions thinly veiled as baseball questions?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: The latter, if you manage to fool me

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Because I haven’t stated this in a while: I don’t take fantasy questions because I don’t play fantasy baseball so I’m not qualified to give worthwhile advice. Don’t seek it out.

9:34	Comment From Tyler For who and where is Mookie Betts playing next year?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Still seeing him in the Red Sox’s outfield. Things are different if the Marlins weren’t so insistent upon re-signing Giancarlo Stanton, but it is what it is

9:35	Comment From Mike What contract do you see Pablo ultimately signing?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I agree with Dave — it’s easy to see him landing in Boston, for something like six years

9:35	Comment From J Is Bridich banking on Cuddyer not accepting the QO?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Doubt it

9:36	Comment From Forsyth Saw the Washington Post said the Nats should trade for Mookie Betts, but it “might require giving up Zimmermann”. What is worse – That trade proposal (Betts for Zimm) or the Dallas Morning Sun (Gallo and Jackson for Cespedes)?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: First one’s a lot worse

9:37	Comment From john Who should St. Louis target to help fill the talent gap left by Taveras?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I hate this but I guess we have to be able to talk about this stuff at some point

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Cardinals’ outfield is set. Between Holliday, Jay, Bourjos, and Grichuk, they don’t need much out there. The infield’s in place. So you’re looking at maybe a second-tier starting pitcher, or help in the bullpen. Word’s out the team has a lot of interest in Andrew Miller

9:40	Comment From a preseasoner If you were forced to trade Brad Miller, Taijuan Walker, Michael Saunders, and Tom Wilhemson in a single package, what (who) would you want back?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: An All-Star outfielder with a few more years of team control

9:40	Comment From Billy Outside of the Phillies, is anyone going to be sucker enough to help de clutter the Dodgers OF for them?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Matt Kemp has Right-Handed Power (TM)

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: If the Dodgers put money toward making Kemp disappear, lots of teams would have interest. The Mariners have been interested for years

9:42

Comment From Amoeba
We have batting splits and pitching splits… Does it make sense to add basic defensive splits ? Isn’t teams with good defensive left side of the infield (like Baltimore) will perform better against teams with plenty of RH bats, like Detroit ? Especially, when ground ball pitcher on the mound.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure exactly which splits you’re looking for, but obviously we can split defensive data by position

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: But, you mean situationally? Once upon a time we had home/road defensive splits, and I don’t know where those went, but the data is already so iffy on the overall level that when you start to break it down further, the noise can get overwhelming

9:43	Comment From Guest If Howie Kendrick were traded who plays 2nd for the Angels?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Gordon Beckham, Grant Green, or a lower-profile acquisition like Jed Lowrie

9:46	Comment From Hanley Where could I possibly sign other than the Yankees?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Boy, imagine if I said the Astros?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I could see an argument for the Tigers. I don’t see a lot more arguments. There’s value in being able to slide Ramirez to 3B and DH

9:48	Comment From Guest What do you feel is the delay behing Tomas getting a signed with a team. Is the money not good enough? Seems like the other Cubans settled pretty quickly.

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have an average Cuban player signing timeline, but Tomas probably wanted to get into the offseason so he could maximize the amount of attention he gets. It’s also a little strange to not have the Yankees or Red Sox or Dodgers really involved. The money’s going to be there. I don’t think anything’s wrong. It’s just, the World Series ended last week.

9:49	Comment From Theo Epstein Is spending a ton of money this offseason the new market inefficiency?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: A neat thing for the Cubs is that, with all this young talent around, they don’t even necessarily need to spend that wisely in the short-term. It’s liberating in a way

9:51	Comment From Mike Taylor Jordan and Ross Detwiler for Howie Kendrick along the lines of what could be a ‘good match-up’? Gives the Nats a good 2B, and gives the Angels a quality bullpen guy and a risky starter with almost all their control.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try Blake Treinen

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Doubt the Angels would care very much for Detwiler or Jordan

9:52	Comment From Mehrum Russel Martin to the Cubs, Jays, Rangers, Dodgers, or other?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: If Friedman is given the flexibility, Martin makes infinite sense for the Dodgers. I expect the Cubs to be looming, because while Castillo is fine, Martin’s an upgrade in every way

9:53	Comment From Scott Do you think the Reds should start Chapman? End the debate once and for all.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Boy do I ever not have that power!

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I say yes, because I want to see it, but I know they’ve tried this route before and I know I’m biased by my own interest in baseball being more subjectively exciting

9:54	Comment From Henry Any hope for Mike Zunino to develop & get better, or is this another busted M’s hitter?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: He’s 23 years old and he slugged .404. The Mariners put a ton on his plate. He’s never going to be patient, but he should improve

9:54	Comment From adam How much can Odorizzi improve considering he gave up 20 homers?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: He’s about as extreme a fly-ball pitcher as you find, so his homers weren’t actually out of the ordinary. I buy him as a future No. 2 and a current No. 3

9:57	Comment From mtsw Is it reasonable to think that defensive numbers from the pre-game-charting era seriously underestimate the production of elite defenders? Could, say, Mark Belanger have had a HoF level of WAR if we could measure it like we do today?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: According to Baseball-Reference, Belanger is second all-time in defensive WAR, between Ozzie Smith and Brooks Robinson. We’re talking about 39 defensive wins over the course of a career. I don’t think that would inflate if we had more granular and accurate measurements

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Over whole extended careers, the simple defensive data should be all right — it would just take longer for the noise to settle down. There’s more error around historical numbers, but I don’t think the magnitudes are way off

9:59	Comment From Alex When do you move Posey from catcher? Can he play 3rd after short at FSU? It seems like letting Panda walk, leave Belt at 1st, Posey to 3rd, and Susac catching would be ideal from a cost basis.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I move him from catcher when he’s no longer a really good catcher. He’s still a really good catcher

9:59	Comment From Pitching Clock Does Hanley, or Scherzer or whoever is expecting a huge payday, see the QO from the team as a ‘slap in the face’, or as a formality. Is there any case of a team not offering a QO as a sign of good faith to better the relationship with the player