Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/14/18

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06	Lunar verLander: Do you consider Die Hard a Christmas movie?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t care

9:06	Robbie: Who plays 1B for the Rays next year? Everything I’ve seen points to Yandy Diaz being better at 3B and Ji-Man Choi being a butcher in the field

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s still a decent chance the answer isn’t yet in the organization

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: But there’s an even stronger chance the answer, for most of the season, is Nate Lowe

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I know Lowe started last year in High-A, but he got all the way up to Triple-A, and his final slash line was .330/.416/.568

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: 2018 was a big year for the Lowes with Tampa Bay

9:10	Junior: Can you compare the value of Thor and JTR please? If it were a 1 for 1, who would need to send what back to even it out?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: The obvious point in Syndergaard’s favor is that he has three more years of control, while Realmuto has two. But Realmuto is better, and since he’s a position player, he’s more likely to stay healthy. Syndergaard, of course, has spent his time on the DL

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Marlins would want to target someone like Syndergaard as the centerpiece of a return, given where they are in the cycle, but the Mets would need to add on to strike a balance

9:14

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Looking at the FG depth charts, it looks like the 2019 Mets have a good chance at making the playoffs. Whoo-hoo! But then I remember that was the case heading into 2017 and 2018 too. Ugh. Third time’s the charm? Or am I like Charlie Brown, believing that THIS time, Lucy won’t snatch away the football at the last moment?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: The Mets have a pretty good team. Not an elite team, but a pretty good team. They’ve had a lot of rotten luck the last couple seasons. I expect them to be competitive, but I expect the same of three other teams in the same division, so absolutely nothing can be taken for granted

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I think I’m looking at the Nationals as the narrow NLE favorites

9:17	Jerry Dipoto : Just left a message with the Braves. Said “Haniger’s yours for Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson, and Bryse Wilson.” What do you think they’ll say? Did I ask for enough? Should I have asked for Riley or Pache instead of one of the pitchers?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Here is the Braves’ prospect list: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-prospect-list?team=…

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Wright and Anderson are at 55 FV, with Wilson at 50

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Mariners would be out of line in making such a request, and since they’re all pitchers I don’t think the Braves would be crazy to accept it, but the Braves would probably just rather go sign Michael Brantley or something

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: They made the playoffs but they still probably don’t want to push that many chips into the middle of the table

9:22	Sirras: I don’t remember Jerry DiPoto being quite as trade-addicted as he’s been in Seattle. Why do you think he’s gotten so trade-happy? Is there something in the water?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: He was presumably given instructions to build a competitive roster, and he had to do so with a bad farm and with a lot of money on the books. So he tried to one-red-paperclip his way into the playoffs

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Almost worked. Now they’re taking a step back, and that calls for plenty of trade activity

9:25	Junior: What would a 3-way trade with Thor to the Padres, JTR to the Mets, and _______ to Miami look like?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe something built around Mejia and Margot. But the Mets, in this case, would probably want Margot, so they’d have to send more to the Marlins

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t count on this one happening

9:30	Sirras: Do you have a trade idea that would simultaneously benefit both teams and infuriate both fanbases?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Taking my time with this one

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Not as easy as I thought it would be

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Madison Bumgarner for Peter Alonso?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Hell yeah, that’s the one

9:32	You’re not a nothing: Who can Cleveland push Yonder Alonso off to?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Colorado?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Alonso’s a total lost cause, and he’s not that expensive. Would make the Rockies a hair better, even

9:34	Ichiro for CEO: Are the Marlins blowing this JTR trade? Have they already received their best offer and turned it down hoping for something more that they won’t get?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Not going to judge the Marlins until the end of this. I don’t think they’ve blown it yet. Nothing has to get done by the end of the winter meetings

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Gerrit Cole was traded in January. Christian Yelich was traded in January. Steven Souza was traded in February

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Granted, the Yelich trade doesn’t look good today, but I thought it was fair at the time. The Marlins didn’t blow that one

9:37	Jerry Dipoto : If you were in my position, would you have traded Segura in this market? Or held out to see if we could get more in season?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it would’ve been worth holding out until July. What’s the upside? You might get one more 40 FV pitching prospect? I’d rather just get Crawford and be done with it so I can move on down my to-do list

9:39	Sirras: Do you have a player that you admit isn’t special but you particularly enjoy watching?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Tyler Glasnow

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Marcus Stroman

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Freddy Peralta for sure

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I love pitching

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Incomplete pitching

9:41	Mandy is 92% Fresh: Why Billy Hamilton? Why?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: They probably think he’s a younger Jarrod Dyson, and they liked Jarrod Dyson

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I think Brian Goodwin is kind of interesting, but realistically, even though the Royals aren’t good, it’s not like Hamilton is blocking the next hot-shot prospect

9:43	Pd: Can you be any more Dipoto?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Not to make light of the health situation but I do think that was maximum Dipoto

9:43	Roy Oswalt: How good are the Phillies now? Outside of Nola and potentially Hoskins there isn’t a lot of top talent. Are the high expectations assuming they sign a Harper or Machado?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I do think there’s an assumption the Phillies can and are going to spend more than they will

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not going to go right back to their all-time top payrolls

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: As is, I think they’re an average team. They still need help. But I think they’re going to get two more players of significance

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: One position player, and one reliever

9:45

KD: I just wanted to remind everyone that, despite FG and other sites where baseball fans have a decided analytical bent, the typical baseball fan that posts on team-oriented sites, Twitter feeds, etc. are the overwhelming majority of fans. I was reminded of that fact when reading the comments from “Cleveland Fan” about the three-way trade yesterday.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: This is definitely a bubble. We exist in a really niche bubble

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It just so happens to be a bubble that’s in general alignment with how actual teams now operate, but that doesn’t mean the average fans care

9:48	James: I have a growing feeling the Bryce Harper will not get a record breaking contract. Just feels like the market won’t value him that way against other players on shorter deals. Is that off base?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: Jason Heyward signed for 8/$184m, with two opt-outs, going into his age-26 season. Bryce Harper is also going into his age-26 season. There’s more money in the game now than there used to be, and between 23-25, Heyward was the better defender, but Harper has been the better hitter, by 16 points of wRC+

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Offense, of course, is still weighted more heavily than defense, and Harper has flashed that Hall-of-Fame level talent in his one peak season. I think the reality of Harper is still lower than the perception, but I’m not yet at the point where I doubt that he’ll get something enormous

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Personally, I’m waiting on the Dodgers to clear out their outfield

9:53	Bob Lowblaw: Your DD, congratulations on your WS win, how do you address the loss of Kelly, impending loss of Kimbrel, and then next offseasons FA’s, including JDM?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Money

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I spend money

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: There’s no shortage of available relievers. Don’t need to get anchored to Kimbrel and Kimbrel alone. Not that worried about losing Kelly

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Relievers are available now, and relievers will be available in July. The Red Sox are so good already that they don’t need to be desperate

9:55	Joe: Does it matter much who the Orioles manager ends up being?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, but not in ways we’ll ever really understand