Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/15/17

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Freddy Galvis edition

9:08	Wade Davis: Surely I’m going to get more than a 2 year deal, right? RIGHT?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely, and the signing team is likely to not be too thrilled about it

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Davis is a good pitcher but he scares the crap out of me

9:10	Jose: How does Yelich’s value compare to Eaton’s last year?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I assume it’s higher. Even though Yelich costs more money, he’s younger, and he’s considered to be a stronger overall hitter, even despite Eaton’s good wRC+ marks

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: The team control is identical. Eaton was already playing around his offensive ceiling; Yelich’s offensive ceiling is higher than this

9:12	Jstodola : Is Rondon a good fit for the Astros?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a good reliever. No team can have too many good relievers. He still has his velocity and he still has his strikeouts. Over his career he hasn’t had a marked platoon split

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Astros could still use a good reliable lefty but Rondon isn’t supposed to fill that role

9:14	James: I’m sick of the Pirates just sitting here doing nothing. Hopefully Cole is traded soon.

9:14	Tim: So are the Pirates trading Cole soon?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I know they say they haven’t picked a direction. They should pick a direction. They should move Cole

9:16	Justin: Would Adams and Frazier be a good return for the Pirates for Cole?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I think they could do better than that, but I don’t think as highly of Frazier as many Yankees fans seem to

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Adams is neat but his 2017 didn’t wow me

9:18	Brendon: I always hear about players needing/losing bat speed, but I’ve never seen bat speed as a statcast component. Why are we not actually measuring how much bat speed a player has? Or is that not actually important?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Bat speed is very closely related to exit velocity, so we already have a proxy

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: But there are kind of two sorts of bat speed — maximum bat speed generated, and time between swing decision and swing completion

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: There are tools out there that purport to measure bat speed, but that information is private, and Statcast can’t feasibly replicate it

9:20	Jay: Quick! Before the details of the trade break! The Padres did good if they gave up less than ____ for Galvis.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really see the point of this, other than having Galvis as a placeholder for a year

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: The Padres needed a shortstop. Galvis is a shortstop. He’s not a very good one, but he’s young enough to avoid declining into something terrible. This is his walk year

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I guess it does mean the Padres didn’t ultimately overpay for a different, longer-term shortstop solution

9:23	Blackburn: Chances Cole/Cutch/Harrison get traded this offseason?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I want to say pretty high, but I wonder if the market might feel over-saturated with other teams leaning toward a rebuild phase

9:24	Kahneman: Is the cbt suppressing wages? Should the threshold be raised?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, probably

9:25	Brett W: Should the Cubs get out of Mike Montgomery’s way and let him be their 5th starter?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: They should do better than that. Montgomery is most valuable to them in his current swingman role

9:25	Charlie: Is covering the Winter Meetings as fun as it seems?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: lol no

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: It’s enjoyable to be able to see so many people in person, and of course it is a fairly memorable experience every December, but the actual working environment is bad. I find it extremely distracting, and I know that I could do a better job of actually covering the winter meetings from home

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The meetings are also bad for everyone’s sleep. The week seems to drag on forever

9:27

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I am getting used to the idea that I will be attending a lot of Padres games this summer, and Freddy Galvis is a way more exciting acquisition to me than Eric Hosmer would be, because it is upgrading a weak position rather than…I don’t know what Hosmer would do. Besides flipping Headley or moving Solarte for more minor leaguers, what other fringe moves do you see the Padres pursuing?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Padres are very interested in fringe moves. I mean, I know that Galvis is a fringe move, but the Padres are thirsty to make some kind of impact

9:28

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: A lot of people are talking about Machado to the White Sox, which had me thinking: If the Braves international free agents scandal did not happen, how likely do you think it would be that the Braves would be leading the charge for Machado? They’ve basically needed a third baseman since Chipper Jones. (Martin Prado, Chris Johnson, Alberto Callaspo, Adonis Garcia…)

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: I just don’t know why any bad team would be involved. Machado almost certainly wants to test the market in a year. There’s no point in a bad team having him for 2018. The only sense it would make is if said bad team were just going to turn around and immediately flip Machado to the Yankees

9:30	Ed in Iowa: Did you eat at any of the Disney restaurants? If so, how were they? I recommended Sanaa to Travis, but I have no idea if he went

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: The eating one tends to do during the winter meetings is also very bad

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Massive credit to Chris Mitchell — he somehow found a way to go to the gym

9:32	gcarter: Who gets the most saves on the Twins? Are they looking to sign any of the free agent closers?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I have some very interesting news for you

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=494&position=P

9:34	He Hate Me: Let’s say the Giants agree to take on Ellsbury’s contract. How much more (in prospects) does Cashman need to add to make it work?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: So Ellsbury’s contract is probably underwater by $30-40 million

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Start with Chance Adams and go from there

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: We were already talking about him a little bit earlier, so might as well bring him back up

9:36	Deep end of the Kranepool: With the signing of Anthony Swarzak, the Mets now have 24 pitchers on the 40-man roster. That sounds like a high number to me. Is that normal these days?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The Braves have 26!

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I would assume that 24 is a little high. Probably by…two or three?

9:38

Ben: If you had the #1 pick in the amateur draft and could pick someone with a 100% chance of being a really good player (the next Adrian Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, or Matt Holliday) OR someone with a 50% chance of being a generational talent on the level of Pujols, A-Rod, or Trout but a 50% chance of being the next Bryan Bullington, Delmon Young, or Mark Appel, which would you choose?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: So, somewhat conveniently, the way it works out is that the generational players are worth about twice as much WAR as the regular good players

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Therefore, just based on basic math, it shouldn’t make a difference

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: But I’ll lean toward the 50% generational player chance, because I think I prefer upside over steadiness there, and the upside of having an all-time great goes beyond just the on-field WAR

9:40	Concrete Fan: What are your thoughts on the Piscotty trade? Considering his personal situation it seems like a ‘win-win’ trade.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I have a hunch the Cardinals are going to do well with Schrock

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: But, yeah, win-win. It’s smart for the A’s to try to get a cost-controlled player when he’s down

9:41	Boneless watermelon: Which team’s offseason are you most impressed by?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Default is the Angels, because they got Ohtani. No one else will compete with their getting Ohtani

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Also, the offseason remains extremely incomplete

9:42	Unlce Rico: Can the Red Sox realistically except to unload Hanely and his salary coming off a bad year and shoulder surgery? I can’t see this happening to facilitate signing JD and Hosmer

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Hosmer –> first base, Martinez –> outfield, outfielder –> trade block

9:43	Lou: Should the Marlins go for a Cuban centric team to try to win back the community? And can the Dodgers use that to only flip Yadier Alvarez for Yelich?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, no

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I would love to see Puig end up a Marlin at some point

9:43	acj: Do you think it would be wise for the White Sox to trade for Machado and try to extend him and if they can not they could just trade him at the deadline for prospects ? Should be able to get back at least what they would give up for him.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think an extension window is going to be granted

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Nor do I think Machado is the kind of guy who gets flipped midseason for a blockbuster return. That’s usually pitchers

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: It only makes sense to me if the White Sox get Machado and then trade him a few days later

9:44	BJOGC: Max schrocks stock continues to rise, how angry would you be if he turns into a star?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: 0% angry

9:44	El Jefe: Who are the Yankees starting 2nd/3rd Basemen on opening day? Torres called up start of May?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s a 2/3 chance the third baseman isn’t in the system yet, and a 1/3 chance the third baseman is Andujar. Torres will probably handle second for the bulk of the season

9:46	Mac Gwire: What should the Yankees do with their rotation? Just sign Sabathia? Trade a few good prospects for Gerrit Cole? A lot of good prospects for Fulmer?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I think they should be content with Sabathia, but they should try for Cole. I’m less interested in Fulmer

9:47	Go Go Gadget Hamate Bone: Why are the Padres going after Hosmer?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: They probably think he can change their culture. They see him as a face of the franchise, and in this market, they don’t have much competition for his services

9:47	Lee: Chances of a Yelich trade? Where do you think he ends up?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: There’s an extremely high chance he gets traded within the next year. No reason for him to want to stick around. And like 20 teams would be interested in getting him, so I could never pick a favorite

9:50	Mac Gwire: Who’s your favorite low-cost reliever left on the market?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure there is such a thing as a low-cost reliever in this market

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: But I’m waiting on someone to give Trevor Cahill a very interesting chance

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe you don’t buy him as a starter anymore, because of durability issues, but he could be a very useful get for like 80 bullpen innings

9:51	Thomas: If the Yankees get Cole — does their projected win total jump from 91 to 94? 95? 96?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Cole is something on the order of a 3-win pitcher, and he wouldn’t be stepping in for a zero

9:51	BossMan: Expectiations for Lucas Giolito”

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Very skeptical

9:52	Boneless watermelon: How much does poaching a team’s coaches affect player performance? Does taking a member of cardinals development team help more than another? Is Jim hickey as valuable in Chicago as he was in Tampa bay?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Unknowable, but generally speaking, it should be assumed that any one coach in a strong organization is part of a system. There’s a whole chain of individuals responsible for good player development, and the absence of one coach shouldn’t make an enormous difference

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The Marlins certainly didn’t learn how to pitch after hiring Jim Benedict

9:53

Drew: Hi Jeff, I’m interested in your thoughts on the surplus value of Chris Archer, and whether the Rays will move him this winter to take advantage of it? It doesn’t really seem like they have an open window for success right now, so it makes sense. But how much will they get in return given his favorable contract?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I keep waiting for Archer rumors to gain more traction. Four more seasons of potential control. He’s enormously valuable. If and when he hits the block, the Rays would be positioned to get a lucrative haul

9:55	Jimmy: How unlikely was Andrew Cashner’s ERA this season with his peripherals?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: About as unlikely as it gets

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Allowed a .340 wOBA with the bases empty. Dropped to .232 with runners in scoring position

9:58	Jimmy: What are your thoughts on Scott Alexander? His ability to generate GBs is seemingly very special.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: That is the full extent of my thoughts

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Also, he just gained like three miles per hour between seasons. Weird!

9:58	Walt: Do you think Cubs are done acquiring pitching?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:59	JR: Morejon and Ona for Yelich?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Not close