Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/22/17

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: My last Friday baseball chat for a while!

9:03	ToMcN: Hey Jeff! what’s the hold up with Otani being added to the player pages/projections?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: We have an Ohtani player page and projection now. I added him to the Angels’ depth chart about an hour ago but those can take a little while to update on the public-facing side

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the player page: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=19755&position=P

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: 3.48 ERA as a pitcher, 110 wRC+ as a hitter

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: In cases like this it’s not really up to us — we need to wait for a player ID from Baseball Info Solutions, and we need to wait for a projection from Steamer

9:06	Bored Brad : Top five Christmas songs? Go…

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like Christmas songs

9:06	Jimmy Neutron: Does AJ Reed have a shot at the Astros DH spot?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Not much of one, not out of the gate

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Evan Gattis is still an above-average hitter and the Astros haven’t forgotten about Reed’s 2016 cup of coffee

9:07	antony: Jeff in your opinion, which team is more likely to sign Yu Darvish?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Cubs

9:08	Terry’s Sarape: Next move for the Mets?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Private meetings with members of the front office pissed off over the return of Omar Minaya

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: And then probably acquiring a second-tier second baseman

9:10

Jack: Doesn’t the Evan Longoria trade kind of feel like the Troy Tulowitzki trade? Difficult to move someone who’s meant so much to a franchise, but both teams saw a declining player about to get 10-and-5 rights and felt they had to move that contract while they still could. Rockies fans were furious and heartbroken, like Rays fans are now, but I don’t think too many of them are lamenting that trade anymore.

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, losing icons as they decline is generally worse in the short-term than in the long-term. No one ever actually wants to see their favorite players struggle for years at a time as they play in their mid-30s

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Now, in the longer-term, it would be great to be able to say that someone like Longoria was a lifetime Ray. But as long as the Rays operate with such a low budget, they basically had to do this

9:11	Hunky Dory: Dear Jeff, being a Mets fan makes one want to bang one’s head against the wall. Yours truly, HD

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll trade you the Mariners

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: The true thing that Mets fans believe is that the Mets are annoying. The false thing that Mets fans believe is that they’re somehow unique in that regard

9:12	Tim Salmon’s Dad: In a world where you can reference only one projection system, you would choose…

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: There’s basically no meaningful difference between any of the major ones

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Which is why I’m perfectly content with our 50/50 Steamer/ZiPS split

9:14	Bobby Evans: Help me Jeff, don’t let me sign another aging lefty OF. Should I just grab Dyson or Maybin or maybe trade for Lagares, it’s still about pitching and defense right?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Dyson as a Giant feels pretty obvious. If they want to trade for Billy Hamilton, they could make it all easier on themselves

9:15	Juan: Has anyone looked it if young players develop better on good teams than they do on bad teams?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I think Russell Carleton tried to look at this once a few years ago at Baseball Prospectus, but I have no idea how to track that link down

9:16

Tim: A cool note from the Evan Longoria trade was that Christian Arroyo is from the Tampa Bay area, and said he grew up a Rays fan and that Longoria was his favorite player. How old does it make you feel that there are now MLB players who grew up cheering for a team that didn’t exist until 1998 and idolizing a player who didn’t debut until 2008?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t make me feel any older than the fact that I’ve lost most of my own personal ambition

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Having ambition is a young person’s game

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Growing older is all about settling

9:17	Jason: What can we expect from Moncada over a full season? Is 30-30 realistic?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not as soon as 2018, but perhaps as soon as 2019

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Currently projected at 19/20

9:18	Questions?: Are the Phillies preparing to keep Hoskins in the OF long term or is this a plan to trade Santana at the deadline for some prospects?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: My understanding is that Santana kind of fell in their lap and they couldn’t turn down the terms. At this point it’s all about just having options. Now they can make a trade, or just rotate like five players through four spots

9:19	ToMcN: Do you think Adam Eaton is a top 5 LFer by WAR next year?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, I can see that, although in part it’s because left field for a few other teams isn’t occupied by one set player. Like, the Yankees are going to look good in left field, but they’re going to have a player rotation

9:20	Kirk: Jeff, I have never gotten to root for a playoff team as a fan. Will I ever get to? (rockies fan until ’05 and now a mariners fan)

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I guarantee it!

9:21	Matty P: favorite random current baseball player?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Dennis Sarfate

9:21	Kirk: Jeff, would the Mariners top prospect be in any other team’s top 5?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Probably at least the Marlins’ top 5

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: But be wary of what you hear from Mariners social media, or the Dipoto podcast. They have a vested interest in pushing their own propaganda that understates how barren the farm system actually is

9:23	toki: With the asking price for Cole will the Yankees be requesting a 72hr window as part of negotiations?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Nah, not with two years left and a Boras client

9:23	v2micca: The Braves have made moves to clear payroll for the 2019 Free Agent class. But, will it really make that much of a difference? Do you see ATL outbidding the LAA, CHI, PHI, or NYY for one of the bigger names?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s just about having the option. The Braves know more about their 2018 situation than their 2019 situation. No harm in paying extra money now when you know you’re going to suck

9:24	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: If there was a draft lottery for the protected picks in the first round, do you think teams would tank as hard?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Well, no, but I also don’t think tanking is all that motivated by getting higher draft picks. It’s more about shedding money and veterans for prospects who’re already playing

9:26	Millie: Phillies fan who loves Hoskins, but doesn’t a Hoskins for Archer deal make some sense? 3 to 4 years of Santana coincide nicely with an awesome Archer contract without stressing payroll. Hoskins is likely at peak value. Am I nuts? My friends think I’m nuts!

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I guess I just don’t see the point in exchanging major-league value for major-league value. Adding Archer makes them better, but losing Hoskins makes them worse. And while Archer could be there for four years, Hoskins is controlled for six

9:28	Thomas: Is Gerrit Cole for Clint Frazier and Chance Adams a good trade for both sides? Fair trade? Does it get done?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it would be a horrible trade for the Pirates, but I think they could and should do better

9:29	Cards Fan in Austin : Does persistence pay or should we focus elsewhere besides Donaldson?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Front offices are able to entertain multiple ideas at once. They can try for Donaldson over and over while exploring other alternatives

9:30	Harry: RA Dickey intensively trains you in the art of the knuckleball. How long until you’re skilled enough to throw knuckleballs at any professional level? Thanks for chatting Jeff.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say one year. But I’d probably wash out pretty fast, because I don’t think my elbow could take so much repetitive stress at this point

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Those might be knuckleballs, but they still require force. And when I throw fastballs now, a day later my arm hurts

9:32	Tom: Torres for Cole feels like too much to give up from the Yankees perspective, right?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t trade Gleyber Torres, full stop

9:33	Ryan: If you had to put a percentage on it, what are the chances Archie is closing in AZ?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Current hunch is that they like Bradley’s versatility too much. Boxberger and now Hirano are more of the classic one-inning guys, and they both have closing experience

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: So, 25%?

9:34	Mike: NYY and BOS rotations projected for the same WAR. Which do you prefer? Also why people saying Yankees need to trade for pitching but not Sox?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I give a slight edge to the Yankees because I just have trouble trusting David Price’s arm right now

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, not long ago I had similar trouble trusting Masahiro Tanaka’s arm

9:35	Bort: Hello friend. Which owner do you think Scott Boras will use his Jedi mind tricks on in order to get them to sign Hosmer?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like there’s about a 75% chance he goes to the Padres for something enormous

9:36	Kit: More realistic the Rays deal Archer around the deadline, or hold onto him?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The former

9:36	2-D: How heavily do you think the Dodgers will rely on Cingrani out of the pen? Do you believe in him as full inning type reliever?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I like him, but it’ll still be a job share in front of Jansen. Not sure you can totally trust Cingrani’s control yet

9:38	ToMcN: Do you see any of the teams talking about using a six man rotation utilizing their starters from the bullpen on their throw days regularly?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Nope. Added stress; defeats the whole purpose

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Throwing in the bullpen isn’t the same as throwing in a game. The latter is more taxing

9:40	John S: do players draw a big league minimum salary just from being on the 40 man roster? or is that only applicable to the active roster?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Slightly outdated but still relevant information: http://www.sportslawblogger.com/baseball/salary-information/minor-leag…

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Big-league minimums only go to the active-roster players

9:41	The Ghost of Stan Javier: Is there anything interesting about Zac Rosscup? Pretty solid spin rate and slider.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Career 35% strikeout rate in Triple-A

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Almost certainly big-league capable, even if he’s just a lefty specialist type. Deserves a job

9:43	Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Last Friday baseball chat for a while? Please do tell!

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Holidays + vacation

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: We try to take vacation in January so as to be least disruptive to work. I didn’t realize that, this year, baseball would conspire to make January the new December

9:44	Desperate, confused Marlins fan: The projections are gaudy on Calhoun (Willie), what say you about this?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have much trouble believing he could run a 111 wRC+

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Contact skills and power are proven. The entire question is about his defense

9:45

Ross: As a Rays fan, I hate that it looks like they might be starting a rebuild. When you already have arguably a top-five farm system, and you have five top 100 prospects who will likely get to the big leagues at some point next year (Adames, Bauers, Honeywell, De Leon, now Arroyo), why are you about to tear it down and waste the controllable/affordable years of those players? Yes, the Rays have been mediocre the last few years, but it’s not like they’ve been all in and ignoring the farm system while failing to win. They’ve already spent the last few years building up a good system and are about to start seeing that in the big leagues. Their window should be about to open with most of their top prospects in the upper minors and about to graduate. I get why people think they can’t compete with the Yankees and Red Sox right now, but welcome to life in the AL East. You can’t just not bother trying when the Yankees and Red Sox are good. And they don’t even necessarily have to beat out NYY or BOS to make the playoffs

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not actually convinced the Rays are looking to rebuild

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Trading away Evan Longoria isn’t a rebuilding move. Not at this point in Longoria’s career

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Rays know their roster isn’t bad, and their future outlook is reasonably promising. Even if they trade Archer, they’d be getting near-term value back. My expectation is that they’re willing to take a 2018 step back in order to look fairly good in 2019

9:48	The Ghost of Stan Javier: The Yankees throw more sliders than anyone else in the league several years running. Several players have joined their team and immediately thrown more. Anything to this?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees have intentionally moved to throw fewer and fewer fastballs. Something has to make up the difference

9:49	John Wick: Do you think the Brewers are taking the right approach this offseason by working the margins and letting the rebuild move along? Or do you think they’d be well-served by being more aggressive?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Brewers could be a contender for Archer. They’d like to have another quality controllable starter. But there’s little sense in forcing something short-term, if it’s expensive. So much here hangs on how Jimmy Nelson comes back. If healthy, he is an ace

9:50	Thomas: Will Ohtani be added to Standings Projections then soon?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: He is at least now included among the Angels starting pitchers http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not showing up yet among the hitters, even though I put him there on the back end of the depth charts. That’s probably just a site bug unique to Ohtani so I’ll have someone look into that post-chat

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Angels projected 9th in team WAR http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

9:52	LPFan: Does ASG still hold appeal to MLB fans? From players’ perspective, it is usually honorable for them but hinders their in-season schedule. As a fan, I would rather my team players’ be 100% performing for my team than league team games that don’t mean anything to anyone.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve realized over the years that MLB doesn’t care how people like us feel about the All-Star Game. It’s not for us, and more casual fans still get a kick out of it

9:55	John: Regarding Schwarber, he now wants to be a gold glover, any precedent for a weigh loss/getting into shape actually having a meaningful impact on quality of play?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Matt Adams was said to have lost a whole bunch of weight between 2016 – 2017. And while he was overall pretty similar, he did at least temporarily earn the trust to play in the outfield

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: But Adams’s sprint speed in 2016: 25.7 ft/s. In 2017: 26.1 ft/s

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: 15th percentile to 19th percentile

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Schwarber can’t make himself run faster. He can’t just suddenly “know” better routes. But no one has ever been a worse baseball player by becoming more flexible

9:58	Baseball Guy: Yankees need a one year 2B or 3B. Rockies need a closer. LaMahieu’s and Betances’ salaries more or less match. Yes/No/Maybe?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Yankees actually believe in both Torres and Andujar

9:59	Sonny: Bullpening, Ohtani, #AirBallRevolution, Baseball embraces the Process, what are some of the themes of 2017 you’ll remember?