Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/8/17

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05

Coz: Please tell me you have more twin brother stats

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: There have been so few twin brothers

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: I’m very interested in these particular twin brothers, so Ben and I are going to try to get Johnny O’Brien on a podcast

9:06

Millie: so is the Gordon trade a signal that Stanton is staying put?

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so. Gordon has been included in rumors for a long time. The Marlins want to shed a *lot* of money, not just Stanton’s

9:07

Rick Hahn: With Tyler Chatwood out of the mix, who should I take a flier on to fill out the White Sox rotation next season?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Blech. It’s bad out there

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: As such, I’d hunt around the potential NPB and KBO markets. I don’t know who all is available off the top of my head, and Mikolas is already off the board, but those markets tend to be underrated

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that ends up more about addressing the bullpen than the rotation, but, you know what? The White Sox have a million available spaces in the bullpen too

9:09

Brandon M: Assuming the Mariners do not sign Ohtani, do they make the playoffs this year?

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. They won’t be as good as the Astros, nor do I think they’ll be as good as whichever of the Yankees/Red Sox doesn’t win the East

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: So there’s that one wild-card spot again, competing against the Angels, Twins, Rangers, Blue Jays…and the Angels might sign Ohtani, if the Mariners don’t

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: I’d give them like a 30% chance of making the second wild card, as is

9:12

Tom: Hear me out.
Matt Kemp for Adrian Gonzalez and Scott Kazmir.
All players subsequently DFA.
Combined AGone and Kaz cost $35.5 million in 2018. Kemp combined salary costs $38 million over the next 2 years.
This trade saves the Braves $2.5 million and gets Kemp off the books a year early.
This trade saves the Dodgers $18 million in their taxable salaries, and gets them underneath the tax threshold. Saving (bare minimum) $9 million in taxed money, and potentially significantly more (10’s of millions) if they stay under the tax threshold in 2018.

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: I shouldn’t have accepted this question from the queue. This is too complicated for a live-chat format

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: Well, my bed is made

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: It…seems…like it’s kind of doable?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe a little extra money would have to change hands, but there could be something here, unless I’m missing an angle

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: The biggest complication, presumably, would be Gonzalez and his 10/5 rights. He doesn’t have to go anywhere if he doesn’t want to. I don’t know where his head is at these days

9:16

Ben L: Is my other baseball podcast deceased?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t asked him but I wouldn’t be shocked if it were strictly a baseball-season thing

9:17

Jack: Saw a suggestion that the Rays should go after Zack Cozart, the thinking being that there’s so little of a shortstop market that he could end up having to settle for a cheap enough deal for them to sign him. I suppose in this case, they could trade Hechavarria to free up some money, too. How realistic do you think this is?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: If the Cozart market is just dead, then sure, the Rays could try to swoop in. But if anything, they’re looking to move higher-priced veterans right now. And Tampa Bay is a far worse hitting environment for Cozart than Cincinnati

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: That’s the kind of move you might see in January, but my sense right now is that Cozart re-signs with the Reds

9:18

Tugs: Jeff, I would like your general opinion on Chimichangas.

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: pro

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: but I’m a lot higher on chilaquiles

9:19

toki: So with the Stanton list of places he wants to go.  What do the Marlins do here?  Accept less from LA to ship him out of town?  Call all of the teams frantically asking for their “best offer”?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Feels like the Marlins really need the Dodgers to get involved. They should open a line of communication with Stanton right now and ask him where he’d actually accept a move. If it’s just LA, make something work with LA. If it’s not just LA, then you have some teams to play off one another

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t really seem like St. Louis or San Francisco is going to happen

9:21

Sean: Would a Joey Gallo for Gerrit Cole trade work for both teams?  What team would need to add pieces?

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: Not sure why the Rangers would move five years of a position player for two years of a starting pitcher

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t even really make them better in the short-term since Gallo is their starting 1B

9:24

Nick T.: It’s been said repeatedly that Shohei Ohtani is “leaving money on the table” by coming to MLB two years before he would be eligible to be a FA, but it seems to me that all of the teams he has selected will have the ability to give him the 7/$200M contract extension in two years that he would have gotten anyway.  Sure there’s the risk of getting injured and being bad, but he has that risk if he just stayed in Japan also.  If he’s truly betting on himself right now then how much money does he really stand to lose?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: It’s absolutely true that Ohtani wasn’t just two years away from a guaranteed $200 million. He’d have to stay healthy and good

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: But Ohtani was two years away from unrestricted free agency. With a team, he’s two years away from…four more years of team control, which will drive down the price

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: Mike Trout signed for $144 million and six years when he was a two-year player. And even that extension covered three arb years and three FA years

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani won’t get $200 million two years from now unless he’s really and truly something unprecedented. The team-control years will cost him tens of millions of dollars he might’ve earned otherwise

9:26

James: Is Stanton’s reluctance driving down his price? I get the feeling the Marlins are not going to make out well here.

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: Such is the risk of giving a player a no-trade clause

9:28

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I know people joke about the “scales” and color scheme on the Diamondbacks uniforms, but why is there a disproportionately low amount of outrage about the jerseys saying “D-Backs?” If you want to put your nickname on your uniform, just make that your name…idiots.

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: Oakland has worn jerseys that just say A’s on them

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: I guess it’s weird if you look too closely, but as far as Arizona is concerned, that’s like issue number 20 on the list of uniform critiques

9:29

Natsfan: Is there a way to measure how much better a pitching staff (say, the Nationals) should do solely by a slugger from a division rival (say, Stanton) being traded away. Assume a replacement level player replaces the slugger (not a crazy assumption with Miami)

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see!

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: Stanton this past season batted against the Nationals 80 times

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: Stanton posted an overall .410 wOBA

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say his replacement posts…I don’t know, a .310 wOBA, for simplicity (league average was .321)

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: That would work out to an expected difference of almost seven runs

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Moves the ERA down around 0.04 points

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Stanton wasn’t actually all that productive against the Nationals in 2017, but, there you go

9:34

Brandon M: Do you think Chatwood and Minor getting as much money as they did bodes well for the upper tier of free agent pitching this year?

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t. In fact, you could even try to argue the opposite — Chatwood and Minor might’ve done so well specifically because teams don’t trust the best available free-agent pitchers so much

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: Now, these guys are in a different tier from Arrieta and Darvish, but there are reasons to be concerned about Arrieta and Darvish — especially the former

9:35

Oh, Oh, Oh Ohtaniii.. Autoparts?: Do you think the extra International Spending Money acquired by Mariners, Angels will make a significant impact on Ohtani, or rather just be a cherry on top if he was already leaning towards one of those teams?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: I’m completely torn. No evidence to suggest that Ohtani is motivated by money, but it can’t be a coincidence we’ve seen the Mariners and Angels add $3 million combined in a couple of days

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: Can’t be a coincidence that the Mariners acquired just enough to sneak ahead of the Rangers in terms of maximum bonus

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: I’d say the teams have shifted their odds somewhat. Mariners looking like a slight favorite overall

9:37

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Happy Chone Figgins Signing Day!

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: From 2007-2009, Figgins ranked 17th among all position players in WAR. Man

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: Well I’m sure Dee Gordon will work out just fine

9:38

Ross: Would it not have made more sense for the Mariners to just re-sign Dyson for probably a lot less money than what they’ll be paying Gordon?

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: Dyson is about four years older and just had a season including some significant injury problems. I understand the argument here but I imagine the Mariners don’t think Dyson has all that much left to offer

9:39

HappyFunBall: If you were a betting man, what odds would you place that today is Ohtani day?  This weekend?

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: 2%/25%. I bet he announces his decision during next week’s winter meetings

9:40

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Rank Dipoto’s goals yesterday: Acquire $1M in international money; acquire Dee Gordon; acquire a center fielder.

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: If that $1 million means anything to Ohtani at all, it’s wildly more important than the other stuff

9:41

Rafael: Oakland A’s GM David Forst reportedly said that they’re watching the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes closely and that he “doesn’t know why A’s were the one West Coast team not among Ohtani’s finalists.”  Is that just willful ignorance or does that front office really not know why Oakland is not an appealing destination?  What would you suspect are the reasons why Oakland was not an option?

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani has underlined the importance of adequate facilities. The A’s have…well, you know what the A’s have

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: And I’m sure Oakland’s trading history makes them out to be less than appealing

9:43

frennn: Are Harper and Stanton generational talents?

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: Do we have a definition for that? Sure. Stanton is in possession of a very rare talent. Harper, too, even if he’s a little less proven

9:44

Dontrelle Willis: Does Stanton actually want to play for NYY or is he just trying to wedge the Dodgers into trading for him?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: First of all, I don’t know. But even if the Yankees were involved, I bet Stanton would still prefer LA. The Dodgers know the position they’re in, here

9:45

Stanton: SFG/ STL obviously wouldn’t want to hurt there chances futher by setting a hard deadline, but would it be in their best interest to “leak” a soft deadline to try and move the process along, or just keep quiet and move on until they hear otherwise?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure they’re already growing impatient, and I’m sure they’ve indicated that they can’t wait around forever

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals should probably just pull out. Don’t know why Stanton would choose them over the Giants, given just that choice

9:47

chet: Any dark house Stanton candidates we’re not hearing about? I’d love to see the cubs throw their hat in the ring, maybe something involving heyward and schwarbs. Even if MIA took on more salary from heyward than they’d like, he’s still a valuable piece they could trade at a later date

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Stanton ends up with the Cubs, but a rumor circulated last night that he’s at least open to the idea

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: Schwarber would be an interesting get for the Marlins — plenty of reasons for the Cubs to move on from him, but the Marlins could sell him as a potential impact player right away

9:49

Alt-P: People are saying that an NL team is the best fit for Shohei Ohtani because it’s the only league that can still guarantee him “regular” PAs if it turns out he can’t hit MLB pitching.  Doesn’t that discount the expectations this kid has for himself, whether realistic or not?  If he truly believes that he will be an elite hitter in MLB then that actually puts the NL teams at a major disadvantage.  And it’s his opinions that matter in this process.

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: I agree with you. I imagine Ohtani is probably more drawn to the idea of semi-frequent DHing

9:50

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: How much money did Charlie Morton make Tyler Chatwood?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: Probably like $15 million

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: I understand the appeal here but Chatwood feels like trying to force a next Morton. There doesn’t have to be a next Morton. Tyler Chatwood has never thrown consistent strikes

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Not in Colorado, and not on the road

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: To me I think there’s about a 40% chance the Cubs just give eight figures to the next Eddie Butler

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: But, who knows — maybe Chatwood could really be something out of the bullpen, if he doesn’t learn control

9:51

Jutch Bones: Over Under 20.5 Otani / Giancarlo Questions?

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: good lord, way over

9:52

RK: Perhaps this has been addressed, and I don’t know how it could have been handled any differently, but doesn’t letting the previous Braves’ prospects keep their signing bonus incent future international players to engage teams is similar shady contracts and then rat them out in order to double dip another team for another bonus?

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: I imagine the idea here is that the players themselves had very little to do with the negotiations. They were all kids, putting their trust in their representation

9:53

RIck Hahn: ANy realistic chance I trade Jose to Cardinals.  If they miss on Stanton, my guy seems like a better fit than JD or Hosmer.

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: 5%

9:53

Ben: What are the chances New York, Chicago, or Houston go after Stanton?

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: I guarantee you they’ve all at least made inquisitive phone calls

9:54

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Rafael Palmeiro. Discuss.

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: no

9:54

Anon: If you had full access to any clubhouse and could interview any player at any time, would it help you do your job?

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: Yes, although it would also slow me down. I’m in the BBWAA so I can go into any clubhouse I want, but there’s no team in my town and I’m not going all the way to Seattle on the 10% chance I get one worthwhile quote

9:55

Dan: Cubs twitter is speculating that it’s not worth going after Stanton now as it would take them out of the running for Harper next year. What are your thoughts?

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: Same idea going around in New York and Los Angeles

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: and probably a few other places

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: The advantage of Stanton: you could get him now. No guarantee Harper actually signs with Chicago, since they’re only one team

9:57

BJOGC: I realize the *main* motivation for Dee Gordon was the 1mm in international spending but between Dee Gordon and Mike Leake, hasn’t Dipoto taken on an awful lot of money for some really not so great players? Weren’t the Mariners supposed to be cash strapped, hence why they couldn’t just sign some FA’s. Not too mention also giving up real live prospects in the process. Also Dee Gordon has never played outfield before

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Gordon’s contract is bad. $38m/3yr for something like a 3-win player is valuable

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: And the Cardinals are partially paying down Leake, such that he’ll also coincidentally cost the Mariners $38m/3yr from here on out

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: Leake last year was a 3-win pitcher. Chatwood was a 1-win pitcher. Chatwood got $38m/3yr from the Cubs

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think these are bad deals for Seattle. The trouble, though, is that the Mariners need to gather a good number of team-control types. League-minimum types. Usually these guys come from the farm, but the farm is empty

10:02

Jeff Sullivan: Very important for guys like Zunino, Haniger, Gamel, and Healy to be good

10:03

Jaff: Since the Giants are willing to eat all most  all of Stanton’s contract and now it seems like he’s lukewarm on playing there should they hold off and try to go for someone like Machado or Harper next year?

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know why either player would go there given the abundance of alternatives

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: Unless the Giants get Ohtani, their future is looking pretty dim

10:03

The Shohei Kid: Should I announce my decision before the Winter Meetings begin? Maybe Sunday?

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t mind if you made your announcement in about two hours, when I’m most available to write

10:04

Gavin: Fill in the blank: Dee Gordon is _________ Juan Pierre

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: not

10:04

Tim: How excited are you for the Sens to move to Seattle?

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: knock it off

10:06

Toshi: RE: ????’s fastball movement

HI Jeff,
Thank you for the chat. On many videos I watched, NPB players seemed to have made a lot more contacts on Ohtani’s fastballs than I would expect for 100 mph pitches.  This seems consistent with the report that his fastballs are straight.  My question is how difficult is it for him or any pitchers at the MLB level to make fastball move?  Is it too much of injury risk, as he has to change delivery?  Thanks.

10:06

Jeff Sullivan: In 2016, Ohtani allowed a contact rate of 68%. The next-best mark in the NPB was 74%

10:06

Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani also led in contact rate allowed in 2015

10:07

Jeff Sullivan: So, I don’t think there are any concerns that Ohtani is too hittable. But as for your actual question — it’s not easy to increase your movement. It’s easy enough to go between a four-seamer and a two-seamer, but I don’t think pitchers know how to give themselves more spin

10:10

Ben: Do you think a player who is primarily a catcher will ever have 3,000 hits or 500 home runs?

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: Ivan Rodriguez appears to be the all-time leader in hits, at 2,844

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: Second place is at 2,472

10:11

Jeff Sullivan: Meanwhile, Mike Piazza leads in homers, with 427

10:11

Jeff Sullivan: I could see a catcher getting to 500 home runs, potentially. I don’t think 3,000 hits will happen, unless something is done about the league-wide strikeout rate

10:11

LAA: Hello!  Okay.  So, where does Stanton go

10:11

Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to keep saying Dodgers until or unless he goes somewhere else

10:11

Rick James: Hi, happy holidays!  Who has a more productive year in 2018?  David Price or Aaron Nola?

10:12

Jeff Sullivan: Nola

10:12

Silly Beane: Stanton is not moving until at least the end of the winter meetings, right?

10:12

Jeff Sullivan: I could actually see this moving quickly. If the Dodgers decide to make the Marlins a sufficiently strong offer, it’s done right there

10:13

Alex: What would you suggest as the Giants back up plan if they don’t get Stanton or Ohtani?

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: Lorenzo Cain and another outfielder

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: or I guess Lorenzo Cain and a third baseman. I’m not picky. Both positions suck

10:13

Gavin: Does Dee Gordon move the needle any other than the extra bonus money?

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: According to Steamer, no. But there’s a very compelling argument to be made that Steamer is way too low on Gordon

10:14

Lou: How secretly happy are the smart baseball guys in the Giants FO that they dodged the Stanton contract?

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: Probably not that happy. They want Stanton

10:15

Natsfan: Lets say both Ohtani and Stanton go to the same division and face each other often. Will each at bat between them trigger flashbacks for you to this snoozefest of an offseason?

10:15

Jeff Sullivan: no

10:15

Slamboni: If the Reds made Joey Votto available, would he bring more back than Stanton? Contract isn’t much better

10:16

Jeff Sullivan: Votto is at $157m over 6 years, with no opt-out clause

10:17

Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, Stanton is 28 while Votto is 34. But Votto remains preternaturally talented. I think he’d bring a lot back

10:17

Mordechai: If the team that signs Ohtani then trades him, could the receiving team immediately sign him to a lucrative extension?

10:17

Jeff Sullivan: Manfred would sniff this out

10:17

Josh: Can you rank the Ohtani contenders by your best guess?

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: My hunch is Mariners, then Giants, then field. But I don’t know Shohei Ohtani. I hardly know anyone

10:18

Perplexed: Who gets Ohtani?

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: ok we’re done with this now

10:19

Jason: Is it more likely the Rangers trade Mazara for a young arm or Choo for salary relief?

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: Choo, midway through the year, if the Rangers decide it’s time to rebuild

10:19

Adam: Do you see the Reds making any moves over the Winter Meetings? Moving Duvall, Hamilton, Gennett or Schebler?

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton feels like the most likely piece to go. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Reds re-sign Zack Cozart sometime soon

10:20

Jay: Now that the Marlins are clearly starting their fire sale.  What do the Braves need to do to have either Yelich or Ozuna in their outfield in 2018?

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: No reason for the Braves to outbid teams who are currently competitive

10:21

David: What probability do you set for each of Stanton’s potential landing spots?

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: why won’t this end

10:21

Nick: Are the Dodgers the favorite to land Stanton now? Seems like they have control.

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: argh

10:22

Zach: What’s the (vaguely plausible) upper bound for Otani’s single-season WAR?

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani in 2016 was measured as about a 10-WAR player in Japan

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say that a realistically good Ohtani as a pitcher here would be 4-5 WAR. I’d put his realistic ceiling, then, around 6-7 WAR. He *could* exceed that, but I’d be shocked if he did

10:24

Lunar verLander: Did Dipoto make the trade to get the extra $1 million in international money, and the only way to get it was to take Dee Gordon as well?

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: Dee Gordon is good

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: Dipoto wanted the $1 million, but, Dee Gordon is also good

10:25

Jerry Dipoto: Am I done with position players for the offseason?

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: Looks that way, role players aside. Will probably get a veteran backup catcher

10:26

bawling in boulder: On a scale of 1-10, how bad is it that the Rockies stopped pursuing Ohtani around the GM meetings in mid-November?

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: If you have a strong sense you’ll never get the guy, might as well move on to other concerns. I know there’s the mathematical argument, that even a 1% chance at Ohtani would justify continued efforts, but Ohtani isn’t some ball in a bingo machine. The Rockies probably estimated that their chances were effectively 0%

10:29

Arrgghhh Pirates: Soured on Meadows – or still think theres a Benintendi Comp in there?

10:29

Jeff Sullivan: Still 22. Missed a lot of time because of hamstring and oblique. Can’t afford another lost season but Meadows retains plenty of promise

10:30

Xolo: Even if the Mariners land Ohtani, how big is their window? Dipo has been aggressive about emptying their farm system out.

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: You’d probably be looking at 2-3 years, or thereabouts. They will need some young players to emerge in the seasons ahead. Dipoto would be banking on farm-system rejuvenation naturally taking place while the team contends for the wild card. It can happen. But there’s not much there

10:32

Jeff Sullivan: Also weighing on Dipoto, I bet, is that without a playoff appearance soon, he’s out of a job

10:32

Lunar verLander: Tigers were 300-1 odds to win the world series before signing Fiers. Odds have to increase now, right?

10:32

Jeff Sullivan: in which direction

10:32

YKnotDisco?!: I wonder if all the wildfires in California could play a role in Ohtani’s decision… Maybe giving Seattle, Texas and Chicago a slight advantage.

10:32

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Seattle definitely isn’t overdue for a natural disaster

10:33

PTAP: You think the Marlins ownership is shedding cash for the *right* reason, i.e. to rebuild and spend later, or is this just an investment move? If the latter, has Loria’s now past success at that put the league at risk of investment groups doing this more often in the future?

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: None of us have good access to the reality of the Marlins’ financials. I want to give them the benefit of the doubt; I want to believe they intend to re-set and try to get going in a couple of seasons. I have been hurt before by my innate level of optimism

10:35

Kimball: Is it sort of weird that Dee Gordon learned he’d be asked to play CF basically at the same time we did?  Wouldn’t Seattle want some assurance that he was interested and would put in work over the winter to learn the position?

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: I think that’s just the chance they took. I don’t know how the Mariners could’ve communicated with Gordon beforehand, without being accused of tampering

10:36

Joey: Do you think Stanton is just trying to make sure the Marlins get a bad deal for him just to spite them?

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: No, I think Stanton is holding out on what he considers a good deal for Stanton

10:36

toki: If the Mariners don’t sign Otani what do they do with all the extra pool money?

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: Hell if I know

10:36

YKnotDisco?!: Would a hammer and nail be the most redundant Christmas present for Dipoto?

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: Phone charger

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: Five-hour energy bottles

10:37

Kevin: What is the Giants path back to contenders? Roughly the same team that made the playoffs and almost knocked off the Cubs in 2016.

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani, an outfielder, and bounceback seasons from the obvious candidates like Cueto

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: Their future isn’t in great shape, but I don’t think the present is *that* bad

10:38

Sonny: Which of the remaining 7 teams is best positioned to use Ohtani is the most creative way? Am I wrong to think SD would put him in the OF and give him the green light on the bases?

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: None of the teams would want to put Ohtani at extra risk

10:38

Jack: White Sox, Padres, Braves. Who makes the playoffs first, who takes the longest to get there?

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: Padres if they get Ohtani, White Sox if they don’t. Braves take the longest

10:39

Kimball: If the Mariners get Ohtani, given the health issues they’ve had, wouldn’t they kind of be the perfect team to try a 6-man rotation?

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: Would not be surprising to me

10:39

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Hypothetical: if Rafael Palmerio were to get 600 AB’s this upcoming year, his slash line would be ___/___/___?

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: really/impossibly/terrible

10:39

Griffin: What do you think the Mariners do with Dee Gordon if he ends up being a bad outfielder?

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: Panic

10:40

Jeff Sullivan: Then try him in a corner

10:40

Jeff Sullivan: Then panic

10:40

Dub: Mariners now have the most international signing money, they check every one of Ohtani’s boxes, no?

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: We don’t quite know what all of Ohtani’s boxes are. Maybe he wants to play for an obviously good baseball team. That would lead him more to the Dodgers or Cubs

10:41

toki: How many innings does Chatwood throw next year 160>?

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: 150ish

10:41

toki: How much of a hit does Harper’s stock take if he plays 100> games due to injuries?

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the injury, but it would cost him some tens of millions of dollars

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: If it was like a broken hamate bone, whatever. A shoulder problem? Bad news

10:42

striker: If the Padres land Ohtani and Hosmer, where does that land them with wins, do you think they add more to increase their competitiveness?

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: They’re probably the worst team in baseball right now. Even Ohtani + Hosmer might push them into the mid-70s

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: They’re playing in a tough division. Not easy to navigate

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: But you don’t sign Eric Hosmer if you’re not trying to get better soon

10:43

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: over or under on Marlins winning 65.5 games next year

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies won 66 games. The Padres somehow won 71

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: The Marlins are likely to still have Yelich, Ozuna, Bour, Realmuto, Straily. It’s something

10:44

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: You made the point on Twitter, but it’s still so weird to see, after Ohtani has credibly signaled that he doesn’t care about money, the finalist teams frantically trading for more international dollars. I get that you want to do anything that might boost your chance of landing him, but this whole courtship process has been amusingly public/transparent.

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: I would imagine, from the teams’ perspective, you know Ohtani doesn’t care about money that much, but you also know he probably doesn’t care *not at all*

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: Like, if Ohtani cares even somewhat about money, you might as well make a move to improve your standing

10:45

Lonnie S.: Easier question: has the Phillies rebuild leapfrogged the Braves rebuild?

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: I want to say yes, but let’s wait on Acuna. If Acuna is super good, that’s a massive, massive boost

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling a little earlier than usual to prep for a podcast

10:47

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, after the end of the winter meetings, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/8/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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JohnRockerismypresident
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JohnRockerismypresident

You got your wish about Ohtani

HappyFunBall
Member
Member
HappyFunBall

Yeah. 2%? Go hit the casino Jeff, you’re lucky today!