Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/8/17

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05	Coz: Please tell me you have more twin brother stats

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: There have been so few twin brothers

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I’m very interested in these particular twin brothers, so Ben and I are going to try to get Johnny O’Brien on a podcast

9:06	Millie: so is the Gordon trade a signal that Stanton is staying put?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so. Gordon has been included in rumors for a long time. The Marlins want to shed a lot of money, not just Stanton’s

9:07	Rick Hahn: With Tyler Chatwood out of the mix, who should I take a flier on to fill out the White Sox rotation next season?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Blech. It’s bad out there

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: As such, I’d hunt around the potential NPB and KBO markets. I don’t know who all is available off the top of my head, and Mikolas is already off the board, but those markets tend to be underrated

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that ends up more about addressing the bullpen than the rotation, but, you know what? The White Sox have a million available spaces in the bullpen too

9:09	Brandon M: Assuming the Mariners do not sign Ohtani, do they make the playoffs this year?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. They won’t be as good as the Astros, nor do I think they’ll be as good as whichever of the Yankees/Red Sox doesn’t win the East

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: So there’s that one wild-card spot again, competing against the Angels, Twins, Rangers, Blue Jays…and the Angels might sign Ohtani, if the Mariners don’t

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I’d give them like a 30% chance of making the second wild card, as is

9:12

Tom: Hear me out.
Matt Kemp for Adrian Gonzalez and Scott Kazmir.
All players subsequently DFA.
Combined AGone and Kaz cost $35.5 million in 2018. Kemp combined salary costs $38 million over the next 2 years.
This trade saves the Braves $2.5 million and gets Kemp off the books a year early.
This trade saves the Dodgers $18 million in their taxable salaries, and gets them underneath the tax threshold. Saving (bare minimum) $9 million in taxed money, and potentially significantly more (10’s of millions) if they stay under the tax threshold in 2018.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I shouldn’t have accepted this question from the queue. This is too complicated for a live-chat format

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Well, my bed is made

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It…seems…like it’s kind of doable?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe a little extra money would have to change hands, but there could be something here, unless I’m missing an angle

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: The biggest complication, presumably, would be Gonzalez and his 10/5 rights. He doesn’t have to go anywhere if he doesn’t want to. I don’t know where his head is at these days

9:16	Ben L: Is my other baseball podcast deceased?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t asked him but I wouldn’t be shocked if it were strictly a baseball-season thing

9:17

Jack: Saw a suggestion that the Rays should go after Zack Cozart, the thinking being that there’s so little of a shortstop market that he could end up having to settle for a cheap enough deal for them to sign him. I suppose in this case, they could trade Hechavarria to free up some money, too. How realistic do you think this is?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: If the Cozart market is just dead, then sure, the Rays could try to swoop in. But if anything, they’re looking to move higher-priced veterans right now. And Tampa Bay is a far worse hitting environment for Cozart than Cincinnati

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: That’s the kind of move you might see in January, but my sense right now is that Cozart re-signs with the Reds

9:18	Tugs: Jeff, I would like your general opinion on Chimichangas.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: pro

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: but I’m a lot higher on chilaquiles

9:19	toki: So with the Stanton list of places he wants to go. What do the Marlins do here? Accept less from LA to ship him out of town? Call all of the teams frantically asking for their “best offer”?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Feels like the Marlins really need the Dodgers to get involved. They should open a line of communication with Stanton right now and ask him where he’d actually accept a move. If it’s just LA, make something work with LA. If it’s not just LA, then you have some teams to play off one another

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t really seem like St. Louis or San Francisco is going to happen

9:21	Sean: Would a Joey Gallo for Gerrit Cole trade work for both teams? What team would need to add pieces?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Not sure why the Rangers would move five years of a position player for two years of a starting pitcher

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t even really make them better in the short-term since Gallo is their starting 1B

9:24

Nick T.: It’s been said repeatedly that Shohei Ohtani is “leaving money on the table” by coming to MLB two years before he would be eligible to be a FA, but it seems to me that all of the teams he has selected will have the ability to give him the 7/$200M contract extension in two years that he would have gotten anyway. Sure there’s the risk of getting injured and being bad, but he has that risk if he just stayed in Japan also. If he’s truly betting on himself right now then how much money does he really stand to lose?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: It’s absolutely true that Ohtani wasn’t just two years away from a guaranteed $200 million. He’d have to stay healthy and good

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: But Ohtani was two years away from unrestricted free agency. With a team, he’s two years away from…four more years of team control, which will drive down the price

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Mike Trout signed for $144 million and six years when he was a two-year player. And even that extension covered three arb years and three FA years

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani won’t get $200 million two years from now unless he’s really and truly something unprecedented. The team-control years will cost him tens of millions of dollars he might’ve earned otherwise

9:26	James: Is Stanton’s reluctance driving down his price? I get the feeling the Marlins are not going to make out well here.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Such is the risk of giving a player a no-trade clause

9:28	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I know people joke about the “scales” and color scheme on the Diamondbacks uniforms, but why is there a disproportionately low amount of outrage about the jerseys saying “D-Backs?” If you want to put your nickname on your uniform, just make that your name…idiots.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Oakland has worn jerseys that just say A’s on them

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I guess it’s weird if you look too closely, but as far as Arizona is concerned, that’s like issue number 20 on the list of uniform critiques

9:29	Natsfan: Is there a way to measure how much better a pitching staff (say, the Nationals) should do solely by a slugger from a division rival (say, Stanton) being traded away. Assume a replacement level player replaces the slugger (not a crazy assumption with Miami)

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see!

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Stanton this past season batted against the Nationals 80 times

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Stanton posted an overall .410 wOBA

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say his replacement posts…I don’t know, a .310 wOBA, for simplicity (league average was .321)

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: That would work out to an expected difference of almost seven runs

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Moves the ERA down around 0.04 points

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Stanton wasn’t actually all that productive against the Nationals in 2017, but, there you go

9:34	Brandon M: Do you think Chatwood and Minor getting as much money as they did bodes well for the upper tier of free agent pitching this year?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t. In fact, you could even try to argue the opposite — Chatwood and Minor might’ve done so well specifically because teams don’t trust the best available free-agent pitchers so much

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Now, these guys are in a different tier from Arrieta and Darvish, but there are reasons to be concerned about Arrieta and Darvish — especially the former

9:35	Oh, Oh, Oh Ohtaniii.. Autoparts?: Do you think the extra International Spending Money acquired by Mariners, Angels will make a significant impact on Ohtani, or rather just be a cherry on top if he was already leaning towards one of those teams?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I’m completely torn. No evidence to suggest that Ohtani is motivated by money, but it can’t be a coincidence we’ve seen the Mariners and Angels add $3 million combined in a couple of days

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t be a coincidence that the Mariners acquired just enough to sneak ahead of the Rangers in terms of maximum bonus

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say the teams have shifted their odds somewhat. Mariners looking like a slight favorite overall

9:37	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Happy Chone Figgins Signing Day!

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: From 2007-2009, Figgins ranked 17th among all position players in WAR. Man

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Well I’m sure Dee Gordon will work out just fine

9:38	Ross: Would it not have made more sense for the Mariners to just re-sign Dyson for probably a lot less money than what they’ll be paying Gordon?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Dyson is about four years older and just had a season including some significant injury problems. I understand the argument here but I imagine the Mariners don’t think Dyson has all that much left to offer

9:39	HappyFunBall: If you were a betting man, what odds would you place that today is Ohtani day? This weekend?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: 2%/25%. I bet he announces his decision during next week’s winter meetings

9:40	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Rank Dipoto’s goals yesterday: Acquire $1M in international money; acquire Dee Gordon; acquire a center fielder.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: If that $1 million means anything to Ohtani at all, it’s wildly more important than the other stuff

9:41

Rafael: Oakland A’s GM David Forst reportedly said that they’re watching the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes closely and that he “doesn’t know why A’s were the one West Coast team not among Ohtani’s finalists.” Is that just willful ignorance or does that front office really not know why Oakland is not an appealing destination? What would you suspect are the reasons why Oakland was not an option?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani has underlined the importance of adequate facilities. The A’s have…well, you know what the A’s have

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: And I’m sure Oakland’s trading history makes them out to be less than appealing

9:43	frennn: Are Harper and Stanton generational talents?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Do we have a definition for that? Sure. Stanton is in possession of a very rare talent. Harper, too, even if he’s a little less proven

9:44	Dontrelle Willis: Does Stanton actually want to play for NYY or is he just trying to wedge the Dodgers into trading for him?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: First of all, I don’t know. But even if the Yankees were involved, I bet Stanton would still prefer LA. The Dodgers know the position they’re in, here

9:45	Stanton: SFG/ STL obviously wouldn’t want to hurt there chances futher by setting a hard deadline, but would it be in their best interest to “leak” a soft deadline to try and move the process along, or just keep quiet and move on until they hear otherwise?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure they’re already growing impatient, and I’m sure they’ve indicated that they can’t wait around forever

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals should probably just pull out. Don’t know why Stanton would choose them over the Giants, given just that choice

9:47	chet: Any dark house Stanton candidates we’re not hearing about? I’d love to see the cubs throw their hat in the ring, maybe something involving heyward and schwarbs. Even if MIA took on more salary from heyward than they’d like, he’s still a valuable piece they could trade at a later date

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Stanton ends up with the Cubs, but a rumor circulated last night that he’s at least open to the idea

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Schwarber would be an interesting get for the Marlins — plenty of reasons for the Cubs to move on from him, but the Marlins could sell him as a potential impact player right away

9:49

Alt-P: People are saying that an NL team is the best fit for Shohei Ohtani because it’s the only league that can still guarantee him “regular” PAs if it turns out he can’t hit MLB pitching. Doesn’t that discount the expectations this kid has for himself, whether realistic or not? If he truly believes that he will be an elite hitter in MLB then that actually puts the NL teams at a major disadvantage. And it’s his opinions that matter in this process.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I agree with you. I imagine Ohtani is probably more drawn to the idea of semi-frequent DHing

9:50	Alec Asher Wojciechowski: How much money did Charlie Morton make Tyler Chatwood?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Probably like $15 million

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I understand the appeal here but Chatwood feels like trying to force a next Morton. There doesn’t have to be a next Morton. Tyler Chatwood has never thrown consistent strikes

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Not in Colorado, and not on the road

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: To me I think there’s about a 40% chance the Cubs just give eight figures to the next Eddie Butler

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: But, who knows — maybe Chatwood could really be something out of the bullpen, if he doesn’t learn control

9:51	Jutch Bones: Over Under 20.5 Otani / Giancarlo Questions?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: good lord, way over

9:52

RK: Perhaps this has been addressed, and I don’t know how it could have been handled any differently, but doesn’t letting the previous Braves’ prospects keep their signing bonus incent future international players to engage teams is similar shady contracts and then rat them out in order to double dip another team for another bonus?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine the idea here is that the players themselves had very little to do with the negotiations. They were all kids, putting their trust in their representation

9:53	RIck Hahn: ANy realistic chance I trade Jose to Cardinals. If they miss on Stanton, my guy seems like a better fit than JD or Hosmer.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: 5%

9:53	Ben: What are the chances New York, Chicago, or Houston go after Stanton?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I guarantee you they’ve all at least made inquisitive phone calls

9:54	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Rafael Palmeiro. Discuss.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:54	Anon: If you had full access to any clubhouse and could interview any player at any time, would it help you do your job?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, although it would also slow me down. I’m in the BBWAA so I can go into any clubhouse I want, but there’s no team in my town and I’m not going all the way to Seattle on the 10% chance I get one worthwhile quote

9:55	Dan: Cubs twitter is speculating that it’s not worth going after Stanton now as it would take them out of the running for Harper next year. What are your thoughts?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Same idea going around in New York and Los Angeles

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: and probably a few other places

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: The advantage of Stanton: you could get him now. No guarantee Harper actually signs with Chicago, since they’re only one team

9:57

BJOGC: I realize the *main* motivation for Dee Gordon was the 1mm in international spending but between Dee Gordon and Mike Leake, hasn’t Dipoto taken on an awful lot of money for some really not so great players? Weren’t the Mariners supposed to be cash strapped, hence why they couldn’t just sign some FA’s. Not too mention also giving up real live prospects in the process. Also Dee Gordon has never played outfield before

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Gordon’s contract is bad. $38m/3yr for something like a 3-win player is valuable

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: And the Cardinals are partially paying down Leake, such that he’ll also coincidentally cost the Mariners $38m/3yr from here on out