Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/10/13

December 10, 2013

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hey everybody! It’s the winter meetings!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: So let’s talk about the meetings and all the attendant rumors and whatnot.

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Not real interested in the HoF voting yesterday. Worked out reasonably. Miller should be in. Didn’t want to go in after his death. Okay. Let’s just go ahead and not chat about that

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hottest topics at the moment are a Trumbo three-team trade and I guess Rajai Davis going to Detroit

9:06	Comment From SMC Danny Espinosa to NYY makes too much sense to not happen.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I like the rumor about the Nationals balking at the idea of trading Espinosa away. No they aren’t. Cute try though. More than happy to move him.

9:07	Comment From William What do the Yankees do for second base? What should they do?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Espinosa would be interesting, Infante would be fine and fairly obvious. Still thinking Infante, myself

9:07	Comment From Pirates Hurdles Is LoMo a smart buy low? Seems like he may not be better than a league average bat, but still just 26.

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s interesting that the teams most interested in him are the Rays and Pirates, since, you know. And he does have a good high-minors track record. But his big-league track record is not good, it’s pretty big, and he’s not that young anymore. I think he’s all right if he comes fairly cheap but I’m doubting his upside

9:08	Comment From MonkeyEpoxy When did you guys add 5 year oliver projections? And good lord Yu Darvish projected to 29.1 wins over the next 5 years.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I think it was last week? Some of them are nutty, some of them are of interest

9:10	Comment From Sammy Sooser Are you analyzing all Winter meetings? Is Cistulli aware?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Way too much. I’m not even there in person. Don’t see the point

9:10	Comment From Cochise Why aren’t the Mariners in on Trumbo?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: For all I know they are, quietly, but I hope that they’re not specifically because he’s not that good

9:10	Comment From mike Expecting any surprises over the next few days?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I expect that there will be surprises, but I do not expect specific surprises, because by definition those would not be surprises

9:10	Comment From Jim I almost wish that story about the Mariners were true just because of how well it would sum up the organization. Probably for the best that it’s not though.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Additionally, to be honest, I bet that sort of thing happens not infrequently. Maybe not exactly as laid out, but teams do bid against themselves. Evan Grant did a bad job of phrasing

9:11	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy rumors, whatnot….is Ubaldo this offseason’s Kyle Lohse?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Nah, I think he has too much upside

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: In a sane world Nelson Cruz could be this year’s Kyle Lohse, but he’s getting lots of bites it seems

9:12	Comment From mike If I’m the Yankees why would I want to get rid of Brett Gardner? He’s pretty good. What about Ichiro or Soriano or Wells?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Already 30, one year left of team control, most desirable of all those guys in a deal. But I don’t much like the idea of moving him, because I don’t like losing good contributors to intended contenders

9:13	Comment From Guest Does Sale or Masterson make more sense for the M’s?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Sale but he’s not available

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I can already sense this chat is going to be dominated by Mariners questions, and for once they’re actually really interesting

9:13	Comment From Michael Eaton and Skaggs must be horrible to be traded for Trumbo? Bauer trade at first looked bad too though

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Or it could just be a bad trade for Arizona

9:14	Comment From Oren Is Doc a Hall of Famer?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I think so, but if I have any strong opinions in my bones, basically none of them have to do with the baseball Hall of Fame

9:15	Comment From Joe Carter Any action to be expected from the Blue Jays this week?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t seem like there’s a whole lot to do that’s been talked about, outside of minor moves. A Jose Bautista trade would qualify as a potential major surprise

9:16	Comment From Jim Rajai Davis going to Detroit

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: combined 1 WAR over the last three years!

9:16	Comment From Bret Let’s say there was a three way trade where the D’Backs got Mark Trumbo, Angels got Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago, and the White Sox got Adam Eaton. Who would be the hypothetical winners and losers in said deal?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: That would be super if the White Sox could turn Santiago into Eaton

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: The Angels would win, too, and the Diamondbacks would lose, although I will point out that while we’re all noting Trumbo’s various flaws, he is fine and cost-controlled for a while so there’s still real surplus value

9:18	Comment From Carl Mariners pull Tanaka and Price (without Walker involved) and sign Choo and Morales…young guys perform closer to expectation…..still 3rd place in West?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Congratulations, you have yourself a team that can contend for the AL West. Now try to actually pull that off

9:20	Comment From Prich If you are Jack Z, are there any players in baseball you are willing to part with Walker for, beyond Trout/McCutcheon/Stanton/Profar?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Good young players with at least 3 years left or so

9:20	Comment From David G Do you think the Cardinals shop some of their excess pitching/outfield depth at the Winter Meetings? What could they be looking for if so?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly it sure seems like the Cardinals are pretty set for now and for the long haul. They could get David Price if they really wanted to, but I think they’re probably too smart for that.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: They of course have the resources to make a big giant splash out of nowhere but I don’t think they are actually going to go that course

9:24	Comment From Ted Stephen Drew – where to? Can’t be Boston, can it?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Sure can. Teams without shortstops right now are for the most part pretty bad teams. And the Indians have put Asdrubal Cabrera on the market, making things more challenging for Drew still. I think Boston has an excellent shot

9:25	Comment From Josh How much are you willing to forgive Jack Z for if he gets Cliff Lee from the Phillies again?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: for $62.5 million over two years?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: From a team that won’t kick in any money?

9:27	Comment From McExpos No volcano selfies in your Wired piece which you should now plug?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like to put pictures of myself on the internet

9:27	Comment From Fish If I wanted to find something like Rajai Davis’s numbers in games started by a lefty, is that at all easy? Or am I going to have to look up starters and look at game logs and whatnot?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=davisra01&year=Career&t=b#plato

9:28	Comment From SMRT Kevin Towers?! Is it just recency bias or (if this Trumbo move happens) is this an unprecedented run of smrt moves?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Especially unprecedented in that this would probably not be a real smart move

9:28	Comment From Ryan So, a Dirks/Davis platoon is, what? Vaguely above average? Roughly?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: sure, that neighborhood

9:28	Comment From Sammy Sooser Matt Kemp came back from his injuries at less than 100% every single time, and it was rather apparent. Greinke came back from the collarbone injury early as well… is anyone talking about the Dodger medical staff when discussing the trades?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: No, probably not

9:30	Comment From Prich If you are Jack Z, how much of Kemp’s salary does LA have to take on for you to include Franklin in the deal?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: So do I get to think like me or do I have to think like Jack Z since in this hypothetical I’m him?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: If it’s me me, I’m reluctant to give up much value for Kemp at all. If the Dodgers ate some millions, I’d kick in a mediocre prospect or two. To get Franklin, it would cost several tens of millions. I think it would be too much of a buy-low for the sides to match up

9:32	Comment From Guest Any sense of what Davis signed for? He seems like a pretty solid platoon bat.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I think I saw two years, $10mish

9:32	Comment From Michael Could the D-Backs add both Trumbo and Choo?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Could in theory, can’t in reality

9:32	Comment From APODionysus Since this is your first chat since, I wanted to say in so sorry Jeff. I didn’t realize just how crazy things were in Ms FO

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Well, I did, so no need to apologize

9:32	Comment From @NamelessRanger I’ve heard that three teams are trying to land Juan Uribe (LAD, MIA, CWS). Is the fact that there’s a mini bidding war for Sad Juan Uribe as absurd as I think it is?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: coming off a five-win season!

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: also the 3B market sucks

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: and the Marlins and White Sox suck

9:33	Comment From LarryA If Beltran has 3 All-star level seasons including more postseason success in NYY and retires. What hat does he wear into the HOF?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: This isn’t the question I thought it would be when I accepted it

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: The hell with it. Royals! Yeah!

9:34	Comment From Guest What about Mark Ellis at 2B for the Yankees?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: probably on their list, probably not high on it

9:34	Comment From Sammy Sooser Are people floating the negotiation window as a necessity in the David Price trade talks?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Not to my knowledge

9:34	Comment From Guest Is there a way of calculating xBB% or xSO%?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: There are a bunch of ways, each of them flawed

9:35	Comment From Guest How similar are Lomo and Smoak?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Competing brands of the same thing, but I think in the end Morrison will look like the better hitter and Smoak the better defender

9:36	Comment From Thad What would you pay Bartolo Colon for a one year deal?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: low eight figures

9:36	Comment From Steve Where do you think Nick Franklin will end up?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: I was absolutely convinced it would be Kansas City before the Royals apparently took Butler off the market. That could still be re-visited. I think, reasonably, Franklin could be the main piece in a David Price trade, but the Rays would have to agree with that and that could take a long time to determine

9:37	Comment From LarryA Whats your home coffee set-up?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Espresso machine and working on it. Within the next few months, burr grinder and pour-over

9:37	Comment From mike Are you at the winter meetings Jeff?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t want to be, and it also helps the company to have someone out west in the event of late-night blockbuster news

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I mean I enjoy hanging out with everyone and it’s an unforgettable experience but god damn can it be hard to get work done

9:38	Comment From Guest How can the Dbacks even appear to be in on Choo. They are about $10mm away from the “max budget” and they still need starting pitching. Are they fooling anyone?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Clearly, they’re fooling lots of writers

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Teams can always move money around

9:40	Comment From JTT Magglio ordonez was just elected mayor of Sotillo Venezuela as a member of the socialist party. Discuss?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: isn’t Raul Mondesi mayor somewhere?

9:42	Comment From Shark Mapiro Do you see a corresponding move coming now that the Indians have Santana, Swish, Cooper and Giambi as 1B/DH types? Are they that confident Santana can man 3B?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: nobody’s planning anything major around Cooper or Giambi and Santana is just going to be a little experiment. sorry to be boring 🙁

9:42	Comment From Gabe Mets asked Orioles for Bundy in exchange for Murphy? I would erect a shrine to Sandy Alderson in my apartment if he got that done.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: which he didn’t

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: lots of teams ask for lots of stuff in trades that don’t get completed

9:43	Comment From Chicago Mark LoMo did hit 20 homers in cavernous Miami. If he goes to Pitt or now Balt is in discussions he hits a little better just on ball park changes. Agree?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: He could hit better in other environments, but then that’s why there are park factors. Wouldn’t actually make him better

9:43	Comment From Marcus The Mariners are going to do something silly like give up Walker, Franklin and more for David Price, aren’t they?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I actually don’t think so. Although boy have they proven me wrong

9:44	Comment From Rob Where are these 5 year projections? What does Trout’s look like?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: player pages

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Trout: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF#longprojection

9:44	Comment From DaveP Long time fangraphs’er, first time fangraphs chat-er. Are the phillies nuts to be shopping their ace pitchers with their black hole of an offense?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Well, they suck, so it’s probably not the worst idea to try to cash in for longer-term value

9:45	Comment From Joe Bob Matt Kemp to Boston? Seattle? Detroit? or staying in LA?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Ultimately I actually think he stays, but that’s betting on rationality and I don’t know who might end up desperate

9:46	Comment From Chicago Mark Why are the Cubs talking trade with the Nats when they can just sign Axford?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: https://twitter.com/AdamKilgoreWP/status/410449128184090625

9:46

Comment From Trey
It’s been my impression that some people consider Chris Sale an injury risk because of his slight frame and “different” motion. The MASH report predicts that he is the 7th least likely SP to get injured. Without knowing the “right” or “best” body size/type is it possible to use height and weight to help predict injuries?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Almost certainly not, within reasonable margins

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: There are going to be some injury breakthroughs in the coming years. We’re not going to develop them on the outside, nor will we have enough information. Every single pitcher has different limits and those limits are hidden within the body. We can’t get in there

9:47	Comment From MonkeyEpoxy Evan Grant was making a joke. I’m honestly surprised it got the legs it did.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: It was very poorly written

9:47	Comment From Right-handed Not a lot of buzz about Guti and I’m a little surprised someone hasn’t swooped in and gobbled him up on the cheap. Even if he’s only a 4th outfielder, he will always have the potential to be more than that until his leg snaps off.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe teams want to see what he does in winter ball in Venezuela

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: and I haven’t seen his medicals and teams might be rightly scared off by a guy with supposedly an incurable illness

9:49

Comment From Bret
Masahiro Tanaka is under contract for two more years in Japan. If his team posts him this year, they get $20M. If they post him next year, they get $20M and one more year of Tanaka. The risk is a major injury or performance issue. The personal factor is that he may want to go to the US now. Should they post him?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Even if he struggles or has a major injury he’s almost certainly still going to draw $20 million a year from now

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: From a business perspective, they should probably just hang on to him. But if he really, badly wants to go to MLB, I think that matters quite a bit

9:50	Comment From Marechal I liked your post yesterday about Kuroda, and your point that challenges the conventional wisdom that the Yankees rotation is a major problem. Their lineup, relative to the league, is much worse.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I will say they have a problem of rotation depth — not the biggest believer ever in Warren/Nuno — but Pineda is a fascinating wild card

9:51	Comment From Pedantic A**hole Kemp to the Rangers?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Not seeing it. Cruz more likely

9:52	Comment From Doug Why would the Indians trade Masterson?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: one year left. might as well see what’s out there

9:52	Comment From Anton What was the point of trading Jim Johnson, if the Orioles might sign Grant Balfour?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Balfour could save a few million and bring an extra year of team control or whatever

9:53	Comment From Next Mariners Flyball Starting Pitcher So what is your prediction for the Mariners outfield in 2014?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Gun to my head? Choo/Ackley/Saunders with Almonte fourth, but Cruz is still way up there too

9:53	Comment From Adam When you appear on MLB Network, do they provide a dress shirt / necktie / drab cityscape background style guide? Or is that all you?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: The cityscape is the product of the local studio wherever filming is done, and when I did it I was allowed to dress myself. But I understand they gave some clothes to Dave Cameron

9:54

Comment From Chris_FB
What could the Angels possibly do to excite their fanbase this offseason? They paid for the best hitter and best pitcher available 2 years ago – fell flat. Got premium hitter last season – fell flat. Why believe anything they do this offseason increases their chances of finishing better than 3rd again, short of poisoning all the BBQ in Arlington and seeding the O.Co with landmines?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Pujols ought to be healthier and Mike Trout is still around. Currently the Angels rank right with the Rangers and A’s in terms of projected WAR http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Not saying, of course, I think they’re that good, but they’re not far off at all in the short-term, even given what’s happened. They’re a contender, with needs

9:57	Comment From josh When I read Jeff Sullivan’s comments, I hear Casey Stern’s voice. Why is that?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: maybe you’ve recently heard Casey Stern

9:57	Comment From MkeMan Best guess for years/$ a Corey Hart contract?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Hmm. $14m/2?

9:57	Comment From Right-handed Do you think the White Sox are motivated to deal Quintana for a surplus 2B (Franklin)?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Motivated? No

9:58	Comment From Michael Should the White Sox trade Sale?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Not for what teams would offer

9:58	Comment From Noel Have you written off Jesus Montero or do you think he could pull a Justin Smoak and contribute some value, even if it’s half a win?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t written him off but I’m not counting on him for anything going forward. And Smoak isn’t good either

9:59	Comment From Drew Even with the Davis signing, the Tigers seem worse in hitting and pitching, but better in defense and baserunning compared to last year. Is it enough to get them to the WS? That offense just seems much worse than last year.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Second in baseball in projected WAR, between the Red Sox and Cardinals

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Position-player situation could be improved, but the pitching’s still insane