Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/21/14

January 21, 2014

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Okay, let’s attempt this baseball chat

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: I have never before used this weird updated version of Cover It Live so prepare for hiccups and delays! What am I doing!

9:01	Comment From Bellingham Guy SEAHAWKS!

9:01	Comment From Stanatee the Manatee HE’S ON TIME!

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I think I’m getting the hang of this…

9:02	Comment From Masahiro Tanaka Where do I sign?

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Forever believing Yankees. Even if you end up somewhere else, I’ll still assume the Yankees

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: They have the need, the money, the reputation, and the history of success with other quality Japanese players. Obviously it’s all up to Tanaka in the end but I don’t see them losing out

9:03	Comment From Eddie Tanaka is just screwing with us now.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely no reason to sign before the deadline. Make people desperate — desperation means the highest possible offers

9:04	Comment From Prich Bigger miracle: Seattle getting a championship, or Sullivan starting on time?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Seattle has won a championship! Go Sonics! 🙁

9:05	Comment From bob How bad was the Yan Gomes,Aviles, – esmil rogers trade for the jays

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Yan Gomes last year was arguably a better pitch-framer than Yadier Molina and Russell Martin!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: He had the same wRC+ as Jose Bautista!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Gomes isn’t actually going to be one of the very best catchers in baseball, I don’t think, but what an awesome development for Brazil

9:09	Comment From swedishfish007 Assuming that either Chase Headley a) isn’t going to be extended by the Padres or b) is going to be traded soon – how does a Cameron Maybin for Dustin Ackley swap sound?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: It sounds interesting. Both in line to be free agents in 2018, although Maybin has a 2017 club option with a small buyout

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I’m looking at the numbers right now, and…

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I can see why both teams would be interested. Don’t know how highly the Mariners actually value Ackley at the moment, but I wouldn’t hate that for either team

9:12	Comment From Guest Which player do you think will outperform their projections the most in 14?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to give the Steamer numbers a quick sweep now

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Sonny Gray? Taijuan Walker? Edinson Volquez?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Real interested in the Volquez project, after the Liriano success. Very different pitchers but Volquez couldn’t be going into a better environment, I don’t think

9:15	Comment From The Oberamtmann Want to edit my dissertation for me? It’s about early modern European history!

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: That sounds like my aunt’s dissertation!

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: No!

9:15	Comment From Grack Zeinke you buying that the Cubbies will “blow the field away” for Tanaka and that’s where he’ll sign?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I buy that they’ll bid a lot. I don’t think the Yankees’ ultimate offer will be blow-awayable

9:16	Comment From Bellingham Guy Heres to the Seahawks, Mariners, Canucks and Trailblazers all winning championships soon

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: *Senators

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: 🙁

9:17	Comment From Masahiro Finish this sentence: It is decided _____

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: father.

9:17	Comment From jb Home sick with migraine. I’ve slept all the sleeps, read all the articles, watched all the youtubes, and netflix hurts too much. I’ve been waiting for you! hoping this is a 2-hour chat type of day

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Even when I have a lot of shit to do, it always seems to turn into a 2-hour chat type of day. I suck at shutting these things down.

9:18	Comment From jb First post-Tanaka domino to fall?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Garza? Seems like he’s been talked up for a few weeks

9:18	Comment From Boxy Chris Cotillo recently mentioned the Jays as being in on Tanaka via agents opinions. Any word on the Jays being heavily involved and if so their chances of landing Tanaka?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: No official word. No official word, really, on anyone — what’s coming out are leaks, and they might be incorrect or otherwise misleading. Teams don’t stand to benefit from publicizing their own interest in the guy, and there might well be more than five teams in on Tanaka. We won’t know anything for certain until Friday (at the latest). I imagine there are some interesting secrets.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think Tanaka goes to Toronto regardless, however.

9:20	Comment From Poochie More value in 2014: Tanaka or Jeff Baker and Matt Garza?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka

9:20	Comment From Bret How many days will it take from the moment Tanaka signs for Garza, Jimenez, and Santana to find homes?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: 5-7?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe longer to find actual homes. No one enjoys perusing the housing market.

9:21	Comment From bob can i draft Yan Gomes as my starting catcher

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: you sure can buddy

9:21	Comment From Grack Zeinke Balfour market heating back up? think he ends up as a relative bargain for someone now that teams may be a little scared off by the knee & wrist situations?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, in the end I think he’ll be a pretty good get. Probably Rodney too

9:21	Comment From Pig.Pen Say something funny Sullivan, I’ve been here for like two minutes already.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: ointment

9:22	Comment From Spencer Braves and Heyward only $300k apart, going to panel. Prado and Braves were only $400k apart before he was traded to the DBacks. You think Heyward will be traded, or just part of process?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: My understanding is Eno is writing about this very thing. One more interview to complete, should be published before too long

9:23	Comment From Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks. Seahawks? Seahawks!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Wrong weekend for Mariners FanFest

9:23	Comment From Grack Zeinke how do you see the Drew situation resolving? Cruz? Kendrys?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Gun to my head I’ll say Drew to Toronto, Cruz to Seattle, Morales to Baltimore

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Saw word the other day that Drew is open to playing other positions besides shortstop, and the Jays’ 2B situation is laughable

9:24	Comment From Everyone Why are most people fond of Mariners fans, but loathsome of Seahawks fans? They’re most likely the same people right?

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: The Seahawks are good and the Mariners are bad. It’s like how people felt great for Pirates fans last year, but would never feel good for Steelers/Penguins fans. Nobody likes when other teams are too successful. Everyone feels awful, meanwhile, for fans of the also-rans, because they’re totally harmless and pathetic

9:25	Comment From Eddie If Tanaka takes someone else’s Brinks truck, do the Cubs trade Samardzija?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll re-visit it. The whole pitching market could/should re-open, with the free agents and David Price and everything. But in the end I don’t think he gets dealt this offseason

9:26	Comment From Guest The Rangers have went from Hamilton/Cruz/Murphy outfield to Choo/Rios/Martin… is this an upgrade and was it worth it?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t love their current outfield, but thankfully for them baseball teams are more than their starting outfields. The Rangers remain in the league’s upper class

9:27	Comment From Pig.Pen Based on statistics and the black magic that makes up those statistics what kind of year do you think Bryce Harper will have?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: A super good one that’s worse than Mike Trout’s

9:27	Comment From Nick in Cleveland What would the Indians have to offer Ubaldo to get him back? And would it be a good move for the Tribe?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say, I don’t know, $45m/3yr? I think they could survive that, but I don’t think it would be necessary

9:29	Comment From Not Sandy Alderson Thanks for doing this Jeff. What would you do regarding the Mets first base logjam (or clogged toilet, in this case)

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Play Davis. Might as well see. He obviously has next to no market value, but he’s more interesting to me than Duda and it’s not like 2014 is going to be a championship season

9:30	Comment From Bret Why aren’t more teams getting involved on AJ Burnett and making it way too difficult for him to consider retiring? He was really good two years in a row!

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Well, he seems to be dead set on very limited possibilities, he’s old, he’s struggled outside of Pittsburgh, and there are lots of other pitchers on the market

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: But he is definitely better than his reputation

9:31	Comment From Prich What are the odds that neither Morales or Cruz end up with the Orioles or Mariners?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: 2%

9:33	Comment From ncb Bobby Abreu- 8 HRs and a 1.531 OPS in the Venezuela winter league playoffs. Does he play in the majors in 2014?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Other people who have dominated down there this winter: Joe Thurston, Hector Gimenez, Freddy Galvis, Ronny Cedeno, Gregorio Petit

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Any job would be a limited one, and I don’t think he ends up on a big-league roster

9:36	Comment From gareth Which team would Tanaka make the most impact in 2014? The difference being “just winning” versus “just losing” the division.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Among realistic contenders for his services?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: He’d be awesome for the Angels, although they don’t seem to be in there.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: For the Yankees, Mariners, and Diamondbacks, the impact would be similar — probably not enough to win the division, but enough to become a legitimate wild-card contender, if not favorite

9:38	Comment From Pig.Pen With a few weeks to digest and some perspective on how their offseason played out, is the Doug Fister trade any less of a dumpster fire for Detroit now?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Still and forever a bad deal. When no one in baseball understands why you did what you did, you were either stupid or genius, and this seems well shy of genius.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, the Tigers used the financial flexibility, but they could’ve gained the flexibility via other means. Or they could’ve traded Fister for more!

9:39	Comment From Beer Have you observed signs of Seahawks fever in PDX, or is it still a city of split Washington/NorCal allegiances?

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: It’s split, but leaning Washington. You don’t get the vibe that the Seahawks are Portland’s team — and they’re not Portland’s team, and the Portland/Seattle sporting relationship is awkward — but there are jerseys and t-shirts all over the place. There’s a buzz. It’s probably not as loud as the Trailblazers buzz

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Went out on Sunday specifically to immerse myself in the atmosphere. Plenty of 49ers fans. Overwhelmed by Seahawks fans. A goodly number of people lost it, in the most enjoyable way

9:43	Comment From Jack Sikma Favorite Sonic?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Payton, naturally

9:44	Comment From Mike Jeff, if you have time for a hockey question, I’d love to know what you think of Eugene Melnyk and his ‘forensic’ investigation. http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/melnyk-presents-forensic-results-to-nhl/

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I am simultaneously incredibly embarrassed and incredibly supportive of Matt Cooke being drowned in a river

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: #sports

9:46	Comment From heychuck If the Mariners do not get Tanaka (seems likely) do they grab another one of the big free-agent pitchers?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Santana seems like the most likely bet

9:47	Comment From Shark Mapiro Masterson to the Red Sox next offseason? Boston has wanted him back since he started starting and the Indians are back to pleading poverty.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, it’s entirely possible, but we’re already looking ahead to Justin Masterson’s free agency now?

9:47	Comment From Eastern NC For the Orioles, they are being eviscerated by everyone for their offseason, and I agree they should have upgraded the offense. But really, the pitchers…..shouldn’t they just wait for Gausman? Underwhelming.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles haven’t had a great offseason, of course, but a part of this is people overstating the positive impact of landing free agents. Free agency usually makes for a pretty bad market. And the Orioles might still emerge with a player or two on reasonable salaries

9:49	Comment From Formerly the Snasher Ryan Goins, any chance he hits enough to let his defense be a difference maker?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: The hope should be that no one ever has to find out

9:49	Comment From bababouey Why does everyone say that the Braves need to trade Heyward before they lose him? Since when are the Braves a small market team unable to sign a big name?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Does everyone say that?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: But the Braves do have a fairly static payroll and a terrible TV contract that puts them at a financial disadvantage. Can’t ignore those twin realities

9:50	Comment From Chris206 Going to Portland with the girlfriend for Valentine’s Day. What is the one thing I absolutely positively MUST do while I’m there???

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Get a place to sleep

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: And remember, under all circumstances, it’s less about what you do, and more about who you do it with. The one thing you absolutely positively must do while you’re here is live in and appreciate the moment

9:51	Comment From Guest How do you think Josh Johnson does this year?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Well enough to be considered pretty good again

9:52	Comment From Eastern NC where do you stand on Manny Machado, future star, solid regular on contending team, starter for a bad team? What’s the likely outcome?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I like him as a guy who’ll end up kind of underrated when people think he’s a disappointment for not hitting enough

9:54	Comment From Eastern NC Who is Rich Renteria, and why should Cub fans care?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Rick Renteria is the Cubs manager. Cubs fans should care because he is the Cubs manager

9:54	Comment From Formerly the Snasher Biggest sleeper in the Jays system?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: That right there is a Hulet question

9:55	Comment From Erich Assume Clayton Kershaw pitches at a high level for 5 years and opts out. Let’s speculate as to how absurd an overpay his next contract will be. 8Y/$280M?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I can get behind that

9:55	Comment From Eastern NC Is a first round pick really more valuable than Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Kendrys Morales?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: No, but then, the price is more than that

9:56	Comment From gareth Does Theo Epstein see himself as a curse breaker? First red sox, now the cubs………..

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Or he just likes good, high-paying jobs that give him a lot of budget flexibility to work with

9:57	Comment From docmilo If Tanaka takes winning environment into consideration and doesn’t want to be a Yankee, who is closer to having a winning team Cubs, Pale Hose, Mariners?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: With Tanaka the Mariners could be good right now

9:58	Comment From Nelson Cruz Who is actually, realistically interested in signing me for anything close to what I’m asking for? If no one, who’s giving me a one-year deal?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: What you’re asking for? You’re not getting what you’re asking for. But you’re presumably going to Baltimore or Seattle. Have fun!

9:58	Comment From Erich What would Russell Wilson’s slash line be in the major leagues in 2014 had he chosen baseball?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Something terrible

9:59	Comment From gareth Pirates and Orioles are very confusing this off-season. Why are they not more aggressive in improving?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: They don’t have a lot of flexibility

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: And the Pirates in particular don’t really have a lot of needs