Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/23/16

December 23, 2016

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll let you know now this will be my last chat for a little while since right after Christmas I’m going on vacation

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be back on January 13, which happens to be a Friday, which means I’ll be chatting, which means that time I’ll be asking you guys what’s been going on in baseball!

9:04	Bork: Merry Christmas, friend!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:04	Fat Kenny G: Hey Jeff, tell me how you really feel about Mike Trout?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I wish that I loved him even more

9:05	Colt Holt: Billy Hamilton extension, what could it look like? Obviously risky with so much tied to his speed, but isn’t that exactly why he could be willing to take a team friendly long term deal to guarantee the one life changing payday?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton is maybe or probably the best defensive outfielder in the world. That’s the biggest thing that makes him valuable, but it’s also not something that gets rewarded through arbitration

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: So perhaps we can be guided by the Inciarte extension, announced today. Inciarte is a Super-Two player and he got $30.525 million over five years, four of those being arb years

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton is currently projected for an arb salary next year of $2.3 million. That’s Year 1. Maybe you offer him five years and $30 – 35 million and see what he says

9:09	The Decadent Moose: Jaromir Jagr became the NHL’s second all-time scorer because the puck hit his ass, counted as an assist. Which MLB ass can move a player to such great heights?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: One day perhaps Brandon Guyer will get hit in the ass and he’ll move into No. 1 on the all-time HBP leaderboard

9:10

Fat Kenny G: Hear me out on this, I watch the British broadcasts for the NFL and they rarely show commercials. Instead they show highlight clips or historical games with player commentary. With the way we watch TV now days, would you be okay with small ads on jerseys and maybe a permanent scrolling wheel of ads on the bottom of the screen if it meant that in between innings they show highlights or historical game footage? It’ll be a great way to expand the interest in the game.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I kind of like this idea. Not sure the economics of it would actually work out for the companies advertising, but what a fun and convenient way to introduce viewers to baseball history

9:11	Matt: Will the Pirates get Quintana?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, unless the White Sox are really big Glasnow fans

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t see the Pirates being willing to include Meadows. Glasnow is very interesting but also very wild and unreliable for now. Similarities there to Giolito! So if Chicago is big on their ability to get Glasnow straightened out, I think there could be an arrangement, but I wouldn’t hold my breath

9:13	Baron von Waffles: Know of any good places off the beaten track to hike in AZ?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know Arizona very well, I’m afraid, but I’ve always wanted to go trekking here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Peaks

9:14	Jack: What do you make of Oakland’s pursuit of Encarnacion? Do you think they make a play for Bautista?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: I imagine they’ll be in there on Bautista, too. They’re just trying to jump a slow-developing market, and they have the playing time and money available. Reminds me of a few years ago when they went hard after Chase Headley. That was a surprise then, and they missed out, but sometimes they try to make this sort of splash

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: The A’s are really big on the young pitching they have. Add an anchor to the lineup and it’s not impossible to see them hanging around for a while

9:15	Electric: You taking Matt Holliday at 1/13 or EE at 3/65?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: That depends on the rest of my roster but I’d lean toward the former

9:16	Zach: You’ve said you would be worried about Quintana in Coors; earlier this week, I asked Dave about Quintana as a fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium, and he responded that he’s not actually a fly ball pitcher. Is that actually true, and then why is Coors a problem?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not so much fly balls that get me as regular balls in play. Quintana is a very good pitcher, but he runs mostly average strikeout rates. Coors Field has so much surface area that thinking about that combination makes me queasy

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: It’s possible Quintana wouldn’t be any worse off than anyone else. It just seems like a risk, given what the package would have to be

9:19	John: inciarte gets 2MM/4/5/7 over his 4 arb years. Do you think thats similar to what you would’ve gotten in arb? Or does defense get paid more now

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Inciarte doesn’t have a skillset that arbitration loves. And that works to his great detriment, because he’s a really good player, and if he were offense-first instead he would’ve made so much more than this

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Average hitter, plus runner, plus-plus defender. Inciarte has become another new Adam Eaton

9:22	Marcus: Does Miguel Gomez have a shot at making the Giants roster out of spring training? If so what sort of numbers should we expect from him?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Miguel Gomez?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: This guy? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa657484&position=C/3B

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: The guy who hasn’t even batted 200 times above A-ball?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so

9:23	Crusty Juggler: Please predict where Trumbo, Napoli, and Bautista end up.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll put Trumbo back on the Orioles

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll send Napoli to the Rangers, and I’ll put Bautista back on the Blue Jays

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Rockies would have a shot at Napoli but I think they’d have to make a trade first

9:26	Jeff: With the shift in balance of the AL East, is it crazy to think the Jays may trade Donaldson come the summer if they are out? Or should they try and slow the PR tire fire and lock him up?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure locking him up is a great idea given his age, but the market would be complicated, because the Orioles are also in a fragile spot and they could start shopping Manny Machado. Then what?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Jays will be out of it in July, first of all. If they are, what’s happened? Are the young players under-producing, or is it the veterans? If they still look decent for 2018 I say you keep him

9:27	Matt: Thoughts on the Nova signing?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Wrote it up yesterday but I think Pittsburgh did well

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Nova is not Pirates-numbers good now, but I do think he’s a 2-3 WAR starting pitcher

9:28	Justin: What are the chances the Pirates trade for Quintana? What would it take?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: 1/10. Package centered by Glasnow and Bell?

9:30	Jeb: What are the chances the Bucs trade Cutch? Seems likely, especially if they get Jose….

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I actually think it’s unlikely right now — I think the Nationals were their best shot, and that didn’t materialize, because the Pirates kept asking too much. So now I think they move forward with McCutchen, and then they revisit in July if they’re bad, or next winter if they’re not

9:31

Geoff: Now that Edwin’s finally signed, what happens with Bautista? The Jays apparently haven’t made him an offer since he turned down the QO and Heyman says he thinks they’re more interested in getting the pick for him than getting him back. The Astros signed Beltran and Reddick, the Yankees signed Holliday, the Indians signed Encarnacion, and apparently the Red Sox told him they don’t have room while the Orioles and Rangers basically told him to get lost. I assume he’s going to have to sign with an AL team, and the Rays supposedly have some interest while the A’s were apparently one of the finalists for Encarnacion. Neither would have to give up their first pick, which seems to be a big obstacle for Bautista in finding a new home. How strong of a possibility do you think there is that he actually ends up with a low-budget team like Tampa or Oakland? There just don’t seem to be many other fits.

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: I think the A’s and Rays have very legitimate opportunities here. However, I doubt Bautista would feel real inclined to join either one. So before he were to make a commitment, I bet he’d call the Jays, and I’d say the odds are that they manage to work something out before it’s all over

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: He’s beloved there, and the team can win, and the fan support is staggering. I just really have a hard time seeing Bautista in Tampa or Oakland

9:32	RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Your thoughts on Ender being locked up by Atlanta?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Extremely team-friendly. It’s not so much Ender’s fault; the system isn’t set up to reward what he does

9:33	Dan: Should i duck out of work early?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: The answer is usually yes

9:33	Jose Quintana: I wanna be a Pirate and I should be

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Do you wanna be an Astro? That one feels more likely

9:34	Jeb: Where are you going on vacation?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Week in the Atacama, week in Chilean Patagonia

9:35	Matt: Better extension, Ender or Odubel?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Herrera’s contract has that extra club option, but that’s so far away, and I trust Inciarte more for the moment. So I’ll say the Ender contract is better for the team

9:35	mike: Ender’s game makes that deal sweet for the Braves, right?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: He is so stupid-valuable. Bad Arizona, bad

9:36	Eddie: How rattled should i be as a jays fan?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if “rattled” is the right word. But it’s never fun or easy to adjust to a changing team core

9:37	John: Why do you think we don’t see many players sign deals to cover all arb years? something like 3/15 for a good player then hit free agency at the normal time. not enough reward for teams?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, often not enough reason for teams to do that

9:38	Electric: Who has more trade value: Luis Severino or James Kaprielian?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Severino by a healthy amount

9:39	Ronnie: League average wRC+ for 1B was 108 in 2016. Over/under that mark for Eric Thames in 2017?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I have him mentally slotted around 110-115. Ignore what it says right now on the depth charts; Steamer just doesn’t have a projection for him yet

9:40	Roboto: What do you think Hammel gets now that Nova signed for far below than expected?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: There’s some amount of concern in there about his elbow.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I bet he gets something like Volquez, but maybe with a lower base, and innings-based incentives

9:42	Whobaby: Dansby or Trea Turner over the next 5 years?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I’d take Turner by a hair but they’re both so terrific

9:42	Merv Throneberry: Any breakout starter possibilities possible for Atlanta this year?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Folty

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Already took a big step forward in 2016

9:43	Moltar: Whyyyyyyyyyy am I at work today? My boss is “working from home” and her boss is out completely. There’s maybe a third of the office here. Needless to say I will be reading this chat very closely.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Now imagine my office. I’m the only one present!

9:43	_David_: Do you think Felix’s command is masking a fastball that’s actually even slower?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t understand. His fastball is slower than how it’s recorded?

9:44	Portland’s Only Padres Fan: Why Padres?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Was it because of the Beavers?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I’m very sorry

9:44	Oren: How upset should Jays fans be about how the Edwin situation – and offseason in general – have played out?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: The right ideas and the popular ideas are not always in alignment. There’s nothing wrong, in general, with trying to avoid big multi-year commitments to aging players. Teams are frequently left on the hook for those. But when those players leave before they’ve actually turned bad, it can be a rough look. Right now the Toronto lineup feels naked

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It can all be discussed much more thoroughly in spring, by which point it’ll be clear how the entire offseason has played out

9:47	Drew: Pittsburgh has been looking to move Cutch and acquire Quintana. What team makes the most sense to swing a three way trade with the Pirates and White Sox to get both done in one go?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: There’s not a team out there that would be willing to pay what the Pirates have wanted for McCutchen

9:49	Hank: Breakout for Addison Russell this year? Last season he hit .238 with 21HR and 95RBI. Would a .270/25/110 season be too much to ask if he moves up in the order? That would be an incredible stat line for a SS.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like there’s too little contact and too many pop-ups to manage a .270 BA

9:50	_David_: Do you think at any point NPB starts signing top prospects out from under the draft?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t. They can’t offer that much money, and, how many teenagers or 21-year-olds do you think would be amped to up and move to a completely unfamiliar country?

9:51	mike sixel: First winter in Portland, much colder than expected……will the Dozier/Dodgers deal ever get done? Which side, if you had to guess, was being “unreasonable” right ow?

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: I’d say it’s more likely than unlikely. If they’re already basically agreed on De Leon, it’s just about identifying the second piece. Neither side is being unreasonable — one just wants more, while the other wants to give less. Objectively the Twins should probably be content with De Leon+ but I understand why they’re being stubborn

9:53	Electric: Are “framing” and “receiving” the same thing?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I use them interchangeably because it gets annoying repeating “pitch-framing” all the time

9:54	Gtrope87: When and for who do the Mets trade Bruce?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: January for not very much

9:54	Toki: Cubs offer Schwarber, Almora, Hendricks, Ian Happ, and Candelario for Trout, who says no?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Angels

9:55	cardsjason: Who do you see getting the bulk of the playing time at 1B and DH for HOU? Between Gattis McCann Beltran and Gurriel someone is losing ABs.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Gattis will lose time

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: And Gurriel will have to earn his continued time

9:55	Portland’s Only Padres Fan: Do any remaining FA make sense for the Padres?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Brett Anderson

9:55	Alec: Reds fan, here. Can we get anything for Brandon Phillips or do you see him on the Reds opening day roster?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: There’s basically zero demand right now for second basemen. He’ll be around

9:56	Jeff: Have Shapiro and Atkins purposely put the Jays in a position where it’ll make even more sense for a tear down come June or July?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: They still might be the second-best team in the East, which means they’d be right there in the WC race

9:58	_David_: Why was Jamie Moyer able to do what he did, and can another experienced, velocity challenged changeup pitch, say, I don’t know, Felix, figure out how to do that?