Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/29/16

January 29, 2016

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to baseball chat

9:06	Joe G: Does it make sense for ChiSox to sign Desmond and play him at SS until Anderson is ready? Afterward moving him to OF?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: White Sox are a definite fit to me. Them and the Diamondbacks are both obvious. And the White Sox might not even need to worry about moving Desmond for Anderson — could just end up a short-term arrangement

9:07	Bork: Since the Rockies FO is obviously reading FG for advice. What should their next move be? To get a new FO?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not convinced the FO is the problem. From what I’ve heard, what I’ve read, and from my interactions, the group is sharp enough. They’re just dealing with a unique situation and ownership that hasn’t made choosing a direction very easy

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: There’s an awful lot coming on the farm — the Rockies should have a very interesting next couple of years. Not competitive, yet, and they should continue moving players off the roster for youth, but there is some progress taking place

9:09	a eskpert: If the DH comes to the NL, could it at least be allowed to replace any position?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, and then every team would just choose pitcher

9:09	greg: You mentioned in your Marlins Park piece that the park reduces strikeouts. How does a ballpark have an effect on strikeouts?

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: I actually wrote about how Comerica Park seems to have an effect on strikeouts last week. For some ballparks, like PNC, they reduce strikeouts and walks because pitchers are just more incentivized to pitch to contact. But most of the time, it’s just a matter of visibility. Batters either see the ball particularly well or particularly poorly, given time of day and batter’s-eye concerns

9:12	Steve: How long will the Orioles give Jimmy Paredes at bats before they realize last year’s early season surge was the fluke and not the second half sub-replacement level?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s going to end up playing very much. They’ll find some cheap outfielder to plug in and Paredes will be left to the bench if he’s not dropped entirely

9:12	Otto: Do you play disc golf?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I once played disc golf

9:15	Aaron: Wow, Fox Just wow

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: This could be about anything

9:16	Aaron: Those leaked We Are Family Pirates Jerseys could be pretttty sweeeet. What throwback would you want to see the most for any team?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head, throwback Padres

9:17	v-2 schneider: Is there such a thing as an untouchable prospect on any team?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: No — every player has a price, even if it’s not explicit, and while there are some guys in the majors so valuable you can’t imagine a realistic exchange, no one in the minors is quite at that level because they’re totally unproven

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: You won’t really see trades happen, though. Kris Bryant wasn’t going to be traded. Bryce Harper wasn’t going to be traded. Mike Trout wasn’t going to be traded.

9:20	kris: How long until we see the LeBron James 2 year deal, with an opt out after the first year? Why wouldn’t Bryce just go wherever he has the best chance to go win a championship while getting $40MM+ every year?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to get a really interestingly structured contract because just straight-up the price is going to drive almost everyone out of the market. So teams are going to try to find ways to lower the money by introducing opt-outs and stuff out the wazoo

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Heyward got two opt-outs. What’s Harper going to get? Four?

9:21	Gary: Have you guys ever thought of exposing some of your data and projections via some kind of API? Manually exporting stuff all the time can be a hassle, and it’s something I’d happily pay for.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: That seems like an Appelman question!

9:23	Norrin Radd: Is there any other ballparks that you think could use some fence modifications?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: PNC and AT&T could probably stand to be a little more hitter-friendly, and places like GABP and Miller could probably stand to be a little more pitcher-friendly. But then I don’t think every ballpark needs to take steps toward neutrality if the teams don’t care about it — and the Giants and Pirates are probably quite pleased with their environments

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Like, I don’t think Marlins Park needed to move the fences in. It’s just something they chose to do. Maybe it’ll help develop some hitters, but realistically even with shallower fences, you just won’t see that many balls flying out to straightaway center

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: The triangle in Fenway is weird but people would revolt if they tried to modify that because once something is old enough you can’t touch it for some reason

9:27	QMan: Jeff, how would you rate the current list of top 100’s vs other years? Shallow, young/old?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Just a guess here, but I think it’s a little bit shallow. However, in large part that would be because of all the prospect graduations last season. So the remaining top 100 has lost a lot from the top, but the young-player population in general is outstanding

9:28	byron orpheus: do you take the over or under on seeing MLB expansion teams by 2030?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ll expand to two places before that

9:29	The Dude of NY: Did you get a chance to see the new KATOH Top 100 list today? Kevin Padlo, the “throw in” prospect the Rays got, is ranked 37th. Yikes.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Prospects aren’t really my game, but KATOH isn’t alone. Jeff Zimmerman loves Padlo, and so do the folks at NEIFI. Padlo is a long ways away, but he’s a real interesting asset and probably more valuable than Marquez, who is getting more attention

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Just a strange trade for the Rockies to make

9:30	Wallace: Jeff, did you see any of the recent work on projection accuracy? What do you think it says that Marcel is close to/better than the big-name systems?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: Marcel does the most important thing — it examines the recent track record. Once you do that, any and all other progress is going to be incremental. Just pulling numbers out of my ass, if Marcel does 70% of the job, then all the more *advanced* systems are fighting over the difference between 70-75%

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: The numbers can reveal only so much, and Marcel already uses the most important ones. The next breakthrough would probably be projections that somehow fold in various scouting information

9:32	Al: With the Red Sox move to hire a former GM as their first base coach, should there be concern that the Red Sox front office may have too many cooks in the kitchen?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: No, because the new cook is hanging out in the garage

9:32	Tony: I’m not your friend, guy.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Yes you are. You just don’t realize it yet

9:32	Bork: See guys he said I was his friend, I’ve got a friend.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: That’s more like it

9:33	lunch: isnt the dh to the NL thing being pushed pretty hard by AL fans? a while back when posnanski polled people about it, he found that NL fans supported the pitcher hitting – http://joeposnanski.com/the-dh-pete-rose-and-other-stuff/.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Surprise: AL fans like what they’re used to, and NL fans like what they’re used to. We’re all fans of baseball as it is so none of us see any significant need to change it

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: But it’s not really being pushed by fans. It’ll gain momentum within the industry because teams don’t like wasting at-bats, and owners hate paying money to injured players and pitchers are getting more expensive by the day

9:34	RMR: Congrats on the nomination of your Trout article for the SABR research award.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Thank you. Can’t imagine I win that category, but it’s cool

9:35	Depressed In Denver: jeff: why are the rockies?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: trials and tribulations

9:36	Ruby: Who are your top midseason trade candidates? Ross, Cashner, Cargo come to mind. Any chance Jose Fernandez goes back on the block, assuming the Marlins are out of it by July?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Fernandez could definitely appear. Depends on just how bad the Marlins are but they’re increasingly resigned to the reality that he’s going to leave

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: expect to hear a bunch of McGee rumors

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Mesoraco perhaps, definitely Bruce, Teheran…

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Once again, it looks like there’ll be only a few legitimately bad teams, so then you just have to open those rosters and figure out who’s expendable

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: next year’s would-be free-agent list is so mediocre there isn’t a lot of rental talent to expect on the block

9:40	jtt: Lefties can’t hit lefties but righties can usually hit righties. Is an all right hand lineup that big of a deal? It supposedly makes you more vulnerable to roogys…but righties face those guys all the time an it gets factored into their splits

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s that big of a deal. In theory the more unbalanced your lineup is, the easier it is for an opponent to plan for that, and maybe that leads to a small disadvantage in the playoffs, but I don’t think it’s a big problem

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: And, you know, what if the Tigers faced the Astros in the playoffs and the best Astros pitcher is Keuchel? And if they met the Dodgers in the World Series…

9:43	TKDC: Who is more likely to hit an inside the park home run in 2016, Zack Greinke or David Ortiz?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Kurt Suzuki hit one a couple years ago so I’ll go Ortiz just because of the extra plate appearances

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: but given similar opportunities, Greinke is more likely to just go for it because of his spirit for adventure

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Given one trip to the plate, I’d give Greinke higher chances than Ortiz

9:45	Gumpa: What do you think of the Jays strategy of trusting their offense to carry their all 1-1.5 WAR (Stroman the exception) starting pitching staff? It seems like their floor and ceiling aren’t that far apart.

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: It’s obviously a little lopsided, but ultimately value is value and they just have more of it on the position-player side. Can’t really blame them for mostly staying away from the expensive pitchers this winter. Happ is fine, Estrada is fine, Chavez is fine, and the bullpen should be pretty strong. They also know they could conceivably add midseason if they need to

9:47	a eskpert: Scott Boras: if he was GM, would he be better than average?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: People would probably hate working for him

9:47	Jonas: Do the Jays contend for the division again in 2016?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: No question

9:48	John: What might a Nats/Brewers trade involving Lucroy look like? Presumably, Giolito’s off the table.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Ramos/Taylor/Cole? That’s just a guess on my part

9:49

JKD: I really don’t understand all the speculation about Desmond as an OF – his bat profiles kind of terrifyingly in its decline so far, but he’s actually a GOOD shortstop, and has the kind of physical profile that says he’ll be able to stay there – or at worst, 3B – for a while longer. If you move him to the OF full-time, even taking the mid-point of the last two years at a 96 wRC+ is unplayable for anything but CF. He’s a good shortstop! He makes errors in bunches but offsets that by then not making errors for weeks AND getting to lots of balls other players can’t. Just sign him to play SS, strike out a lot and hit the occasional HR! He’ll be fine.

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anyone questions that Desmond is a capable shortstop. But he’s the one who’s marketed himself as a potentially versatile player. Now, in part he’s just done that to try to expand his own market because this was the wrong offseason to be an available non-elite SS. But it’s an interesting thought, if Desmond could prove himself to handle multiple positions. Teams increasingly love versatility, and Desmond is obviously quite the athlete

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: It probably doesn’t benefit someone to take SS Desmond and make him, say, OF Desmond. But what if you could have 2B/SS/3B/CF Desmond? Then he’s a worse offensive Ben Zobrist and EVERYONE wanted Ben Zobrist

9:51	Charlie: You think the Astros have the necessary rotation depth to get through the season and win the West?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: The team looks really good to me, and if something goes wrong, they have the resources to add. They definitely have enough depth for the first few months

9:52	Duke: From many preseason sources that I’ve seen, the NLW for 2016 looks like SF, Ari, LAD, SD, and Col. What’s your opinion?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies, with the last two super close

9:54	pete: Tyler Flowers had great framing numbers but the White Sox let him go in order to go for more offensive value. Is this mostly just betting that Flower’s good framing was due to having good pitching?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I think they just tired of his sub-.300 OBPs

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously he has some defensive skill but not enough to make him all that valuable. The bat is so limited

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Now, Avila has been a negative framer. And Navarro has also been a negative framer. So those are considerations. They’re just hoping the bats offset the defensive drop, and I don’t think that’s too unreasonable

9:57	Bill: Why is a changeup the most important pitch to throw against opposite handed hitters?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Numbers suggest it’s the most effective, in terms of reducing platoon splits. Although a good cutter is also awesome

9:58	a eskpert: Would you ever go to “Jeff Sullivan Salmon Feast” the restaurant?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not one to turn down VIP treatment

9:58	James : Which left side of the infield do you take next year, Giants with Duffy & Crawford or Dodgers with Turner & Seager?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Giants by a little bit — love Crawford

9:59	Ruby: I’ve heard rumors that Gattis could catch occasionally in 2016. Could work in theory. Your thoughts?