Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/29/16

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to baseball chat

9:06
Joe G: Does it make sense for ChiSox to sign Desmond and play him at SS until Anderson is ready? Afterward moving him to OF?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: White Sox are a definite fit to me. Them and the Diamondbacks are both obvious. And the White Sox might not even need to worry about moving Desmond for Anderson — could just end up a short-term arrangement

9:07
Bork: Since the Rockies FO is obviously reading FG for advice. What should their next move be? To get a new FO?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not convinced the FO is the problem. From what I’ve heard, what I’ve read, and from my interactions, the group is sharp enough. They’re just dealing with a unique situation and ownership that hasn’t made choosing a direction very easy

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: There’s an awful lot coming on the farm — the Rockies should have a very interesting next couple of years. Not competitive, yet, and they should continue moving players off the roster for youth, but there is some progress taking place

9:09
a eskpert: If the DH comes to the NL, could it at least be allowed to replace any position?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Sure, and then every team would just choose pitcher

9:09
greg: You mentioned in your Marlins Park piece that the park reduces strikeouts. How does a ballpark have an effect on strikeouts?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: I actually wrote about how Comerica Park seems to have an effect on strikeouts last week. For some ballparks, like PNC, they reduce strikeouts and walks because pitchers are just more incentivized to pitch to contact. But most of the time, it’s just a matter of visibility. Batters either see the ball particularly well or particularly poorly, given time of day and batter’s-eye concerns

9:12
Steve: How long will the Orioles give Jimmy Paredes at bats before they realize last year’s early season surge was the fluke and not the second half sub-replacement level?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s going to end up playing very much. They’ll find some cheap outfielder to plug in and Paredes will be left to the bench if he’s not dropped entirely

9:12
Otto: Do you play disc golf?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: I once played disc golf

9:15
Aaron: Wow, Fox
Just wow

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: This could be about anything

9:16
Aaron: Those leaked We Are Family Pirates Jerseys could be pretttty sweeeet. What throwback would you want to see the most for any team?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head, throwback Padres

9:17
v-2 schneider: Is there such a thing as an untouchable prospect on any team?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: No — every player has a price, even if it’s not explicit, and while there are some guys in the majors so valuable you can’t imagine a realistic exchange, no one in the minors is quite at that level because they’re totally unproven

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: You won’t really see trades happen, though. Kris Bryant wasn’t going to be traded. Bryce Harper wasn’t going to be traded. Mike Trout wasn’t going to be traded.

9:20
kris: How long until we see the LeBron James 2 year deal, with an opt out after the first year? Why wouldn’t Bryce just go wherever he has the best chance to go win a championship while getting $40MM+ every year?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to get a really interestingly structured contract because just straight-up the price is going to drive almost everyone out of the market. So teams are going to try to find ways to lower the money by introducing opt-outs and stuff out the wazoo

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Heyward got two opt-outs. What’s Harper going to get? Four?

9:21
Gary: Have you guys ever thought of exposing some of your data and projections via some kind of API? Manually exporting stuff all the time can be a hassle, and it’s something I’d happily pay for.

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: That seems like an Appelman question!

9:23
Norrin Radd: Is there any other ballparks that you think could use some fence modifications?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: PNC and AT&T could probably stand to be a little more hitter-friendly, and places like GABP and Miller could probably stand to be a little more pitcher-friendly. But then I don’t think every ballpark needs to take steps toward neutrality if the teams don’t care about it — and the Giants and Pirates are probably quite pleased with their environments

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Like, I don’t think Marlins Park *needed* to move the fences in. It’s just something they chose to do. Maybe it’ll help develop some hitters, but realistically even with shallower fences, you just won’t see that many balls flying out to straightaway center

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: The triangle in Fenway is weird but people would revolt if they tried to modify that because once something is old enough you can’t touch it for some reason

9:27
QMan: Jeff, how would you rate the current list of top 100’s vs other years? Shallow, young/old?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Just a guess here, but I think it’s a little bit shallow. However, in large part that would be because of all the prospect graduations last season. So the remaining top 100 has lost a lot from the top, but the young-player population in general is outstanding

9:28
byron orpheus: do you take the over or under on seeing MLB expansion teams by 2030?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ll expand to two places before that

9:29
The Dude of NY: Did you get a chance to see the new KATOH Top 100 list today? Kevin Padlo, the “throw in” prospect the Rays got, is ranked 37th. Yikes.

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Prospects aren’t really my game, but KATOH isn’t alone. Jeff Zimmerman loves Padlo, and so do the folks at NEIFI. Padlo is a long ways away, but he’s a real interesting asset and probably more valuable than Marquez, who is getting more attention

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Just a strange trade for the Rockies to make

9:30
Wallace: Jeff, did you see any of the recent work on projection accuracy? What do you think it says that Marcel is close to/better than the big-name systems?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Marcel does the most important thing — it examines the recent track record. Once you do that, any and all other progress is going to be incremental. Just pulling numbers out of my ass, if Marcel does 70% of the job, then all the more *advanced* systems are fighting over the difference between 70-75%

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: The numbers can reveal only so much, and Marcel already uses the most important ones. The next breakthrough would probably be projections that somehow fold in various scouting information

9:32
Al: With the Red Sox move to hire a former GM as their first base coach, should there be concern that the Red Sox front office may have too many cooks in the kitchen?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: No, because the new cook is hanging out in the garage

9:32
Tony: I’m not your friend, guy.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Yes you are. You just don’t realize it yet

9:32
Bork: See guys he said I was his friend, I’ve got a friend.

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: That’s more like it

9:33
lunch: isnt the dh to the NL thing being pushed pretty hard by AL fans? a while back when posnanski polled people about it, he found that NL fans supported the pitcher hitting – http://joeposnanski.com/the-dh-pete-rose-and-other-stuff/.

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Surprise: AL fans like what they’re used to, and NL fans like what they’re used to. We’re all fans of baseball as it is so none of us see any significant need to change it

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: But it’s not really being pushed by fans. It’ll gain momentum within the industry because teams don’t like wasting at-bats, and owners hate paying money to injured players and pitchers are getting more expensive by the day

9:34
RMR: Congrats on the nomination of your Trout article for the SABR research award.

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you. Can’t imagine I win that category, but it’s cool

9:35
Depressed In Denver: jeff: why are the rockies?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: trials and tribulations

9:36
Ruby: Who are your top midseason trade candidates? Ross, Cashner, Cargo come to mind. Any chance Jose Fernandez goes back on the block, assuming the Marlins are out of it by July?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Fernandez could definitely appear. Depends on just how bad the Marlins are but they’re increasingly resigned to the reality that he’s going to leave

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: expect to hear a bunch of McGee rumors

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Mesoraco perhaps, definitely Bruce, Teheran…

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Once again, it looks like there’ll be only a few legitimately bad teams, so then you just have to open those rosters and figure out who’s expendable

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: next year’s would-be free-agent list is so mediocre there isn’t a lot of rental talent to expect on the block

9:40
jtt: Lefties can’t hit lefties but righties can usually hit righties. Is an all right hand lineup that big of a deal? It supposedly makes you more vulnerable to roogys…but righties face those guys all the time an it gets factored into their splits

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s that big of a deal. In theory the more unbalanced your lineup is, the easier it is for an opponent to plan for that, and maybe that leads to a small disadvantage in the playoffs, but I don’t think it’s a big problem

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: And, you know, what if the Tigers faced the Astros in the playoffs and the best Astros pitcher is Keuchel? And if they met the Dodgers in the World Series…

9:43
TKDC: Who is more likely to hit an inside the park home run in 2016, Zack Greinke or David Ortiz?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Kurt Suzuki hit one a couple years ago so I’ll go Ortiz just because of the extra plate appearances

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: but given similar opportunities, Greinke is more likely to just go for it because of his spirit for adventure

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Given one trip to the plate, I’d give Greinke higher chances than Ortiz

9:45
Gumpa: What do you think of the Jays strategy of trusting their offense to carry their all 1-1.5 WAR (Stroman the exception) starting pitching staff? It seems like their floor and ceiling aren’t that far apart.

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: It’s obviously a little lopsided, but ultimately value is value and they just have more of it on the position-player side. Can’t really blame them for mostly staying away from the expensive pitchers this winter. Happ is fine, Estrada is fine, Chavez is fine, and the bullpen should be pretty strong. They also know they could conceivably add midseason if they need to

9:47
a eskpert: Scott Boras: if he was GM, would he be better than average?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: People would probably hate working for him

9:47
Jonas: Do the Jays contend for the division again in 2016?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: No question

9:48
John: What might a Nats/Brewers trade involving Lucroy look like? Presumably, Giolito’s off the table.

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Ramos/Taylor/Cole? That’s just a guess on my part

9:49
JKD: I really don’t understand all the speculation about Desmond as an OF – his bat profiles kind of terrifyingly in its decline so far, but he’s actually a GOOD shortstop, and has the kind of physical profile that says he’ll be able to stay there – or at worst, 3B – for a while longer. If you move him to the OF full-time, even taking the mid-point of the last two years at a 96 wRC+ is unplayable for anything but CF. He’s a good shortstop! He makes errors in bunches but offsets that by then not making errors for weeks AND getting to lots of balls other players can’t. Just sign him to play SS, strike out a lot and hit the occasional HR! He’ll be fine.

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anyone questions that Desmond is a capable shortstop. But he’s the one who’s marketed himself as a potentially versatile player. Now, in part he’s just done that to try to expand his own market because this was the wrong offseason to be an available non-elite SS. But it’s an interesting thought, if Desmond could prove himself to handle multiple positions. Teams increasingly love versatility, and Desmond is obviously quite the athlete

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: It probably doesn’t benefit someone to take SS Desmond and make him, say, OF Desmond. But what if you could have 2B/SS/3B/CF Desmond? Then he’s a worse offensive Ben Zobrist and EVERYONE wanted Ben Zobrist

9:51
Charlie: You think the Astros have the necessary rotation depth to get through the season and win the West?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: The team looks really good to me, and if something goes wrong, they have the resources to add. They definitely have enough depth for the first few months

9:52
Duke: From many preseason sources that I’ve seen, the NLW for 2016 looks like SF, Ari, LAD, SD, and Col. What’s your opinion?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies, with the last two super close

9:54
pete: Tyler Flowers had great framing numbers but the White Sox let him go in order to go for more offensive value. Is this mostly just betting that Flower’s good framing was due to having good pitching?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: I think they just tired of his sub-.300 OBPs

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously he has some defensive skill but not enough to make him all that valuable. The bat is so limited

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Now, Avila has been a negative framer. And Navarro has also been a negative framer. So those are considerations. They’re just hoping the bats offset the defensive drop, and I don’t think that’s too unreasonable

9:57
Bill: Why is a changeup the most important pitch to throw against opposite handed hitters?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Numbers suggest it’s the most effective, in terms of reducing platoon splits. Although a good cutter is also awesome

9:58
a eskpert: Would you ever go to “Jeff Sullivan Salmon Feast” the restaurant?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not one to turn down VIP treatment

9:58
James : Which left side of the infield do you take next year, Giants with Duffy & Crawford or Dodgers with Turner & Seager?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Giants by a little bit — love Crawford

9:59
Ruby: I’ve heard rumors that Gattis could catch occasionally in 2016. Could work in theory. Your thoughts?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Looking for playing time, and he could make an emergency 3rd-catcher sort. Good for roster flexibility. Doubt he’d catch a significant amount of innings

10:00
Julio Pepper: What is the rationale of Desmond marketing himself as an OF? It’s not like his bat looks so impressive in a corner spot, and a lot of his historical value has been plus defense at SS.

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: This offseason, not many good teams have been looking for a shortstop, so he wanted to expand the pool of interested candidates

10:02
Billy Corman: How much of a Sarah Palin word salad has the Rays OF become with last night’s trade? Folks expect another trade, but wasn’t that a clear warning to have one in pocket when Colorado signed Parra?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: It’s messy, but even now, it would be workable with a lot of depth and flexibility. But there are teams like Anaheim and Baltimore still looking for OF help — Cleveland, too — so there’s a good chance of a trade

10:04
Steve: What is the outlook for Austin Hedges? Will he ever have enough of a bat to be a starter?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the bat will ever be good, but if he’s one of those guys who forms really excellent relationships with pitchers, then he should have a peak of several years where he starts 100 games

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: More realistically, though, he might just be waiting to become the next Chris Stewart

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: To be a regular starter, he’d have to get almost everything out of his skillset

10:08
Justin: Of the contender teams, do the Dodgers have the most question marks? Sure seems like a lot can go right or wrong there.

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: They definitely have the most injury question marks, although they’ve worked to address that by accumulating a whole crapload of depth

10:08
BBFan: What do you think of the Tigers offseason? Have they filled the holes or not?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they filled a lot of the holes for 2016. Age remains an unanswered question, and then as always you have to wonder about 2018. But they don’t operate like other teams do in that regard

10:09
James : Who do you like more, Puig as a bounce back or Heyward hitting in Wrigley?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Heyward

10:09
James Paxton: I’m in the best shape of my life, you know…

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Cool! Can you throw strikes?

10:10
FireDrayton: Fister, Astros: seems like a nice, cheap, low-risk move. You betting that he pays off or nah?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’ll be fine for the money, but I think we’ve probably seen the last of Doug Fister being particularly good

10:10
Prich: Do the fangraphs writers read each other’s chat transcripts? Better, do you ever get on with fake names and f*** with one another?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Speaking for myself, I don’t participate in other chats because I’m writing, but I do read a lot of the transcripts. And Kiley used to come around and leave insulting questions sometimes

10:11
Ruby: Any concerns about possible new shift rules in the new CBA? A while ago I heard Manfred was looking to disallow, or at least limit, certain shifts. Haven’t heard anything in a while β€” has this gone away?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing is going to happen there. Doesn’t make sense, and I think Manfred acknowledged that in his Q&As a week ago

10:12
The Dude of NY: Christian Yelich has just hit 1 IFFB in his 1458 career PA, back in 2014.

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Christian Yelich has probably just hit one fly ball in his 1458 career PA

10:13
Chris: name the #4 best Astros position player based on this list; 1.Correa 2. Springer 3. Altuve 4. ? would I be wrong to say Rasmus?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s gotta be Gomez

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: I think I’d rank Gomez ahead of Altuve

10:15
AJ Preller: I know you’re huge on Jonathan Lucroy. If you were a GM, based on what’s knowable today about his recovery from last year, would you give up more for him in trade than you would for Derek Norris? (Asking for a friend.)

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I think it would be comparable. With Norris, he’s younger and you get one extra year of control, but I trust Lucroy more with the defensive-side responsibilities. And last year Norris’ bat went in the wrong direction. So, yeah, for me they would require about the same package

10:16
Ross: Do you think Marte is the long term answer at SS? What do you project him as long term?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t, but I think he’s the two-year answer at SS

10:17
B.B. Rodriguez: When will people realize Coors Field isn’t that big of an issue. The Rockies Front office is the issue. It’s pretty obvious a smart front office could build a decent team there.

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Is that actually in any way obvious? And how do you distinguish between FO influence and ownership influence?

10:17
Ross: Has Seager reached his ceiling or do you think he has a level we haven’t seen yet?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Kyle is maxed out, and Corey isn’t

10:18
Codes: Rymer Liriano’s scouting report with Fangraphs has average or above average future values on 5/6 categories yet his overall future value is listed as 45, below average. How does this make sense?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Firstly, that’s a year old now. But the concerns were that Liriano struggles to make consistent contact and he profiles best as a corner OF. So the most likely outcome there would be a modestly powerful reserve

10:20
Ross: Percent likeliness that Taijuan Walker becomes an ace? 2 or 3? Back end innings eater?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he’s like 10-15% ace. He’s already a No. 3 who looks like a borderline No. 2.

10:21
Ruby: Yeah, what’s with all these durn opt-outs? I understand ’em, but I also think they’re stupid and the worst. How long before every contract >3 years includes one?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: There’s nothing wrong with them in theory. They just make contract analysis more complicated than we like. That’s annoying. For the time being they seem like a useful way to slightly keep costs down with regard to the luxury tax

10:22
Justin: Of the Fangraphs staff/contributors who do NOT currently chat, who do you think would make for the most interesting chat session?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Well the answer has to be Carson, but there’s a difference between interesting and good

10:24
Jose Vidro: Purely hypothetical. Let’s say we get rid of the American League and national league. Everyone has a DH. We have 3 big divisions. How does that change the playoff picture? Who comes out on top now?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like you’d want to have four divisions, with two new teams being folded in.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: You could have the four winners guaranteed to advance to the first series round. And then the remaining eight play a one-game playoff, narrowing down to four, and so on

10:26
Nick: Avisail Garcia is reportedly in the best shape of his life. When were you in the best shape of your life?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Last July

10:27
Mike: Hey Jeff – at 34 I went back to school to pursue biochemistry and molecular biology. It was daunting sure, but 2.5 years in and I am working in a genetics lab. I’m just sharing in case you ever want to become the volcano expert we all know you to be. It’s kind of fun, different responsibilities, less external world….

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Were you sent here by my mom?

10:27
Jon: Will we eventually get to the point where the umpires are completely replaced by robots and algorithms, and each team fields an entirely separate offense and defense? Sometimes it seems like they take baby steps towards this every few years (video review, Questec, DH in AL and now possibly NL, etc)

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s put it this way: by the time baseball changes that much, the lot of us will be dead

10:28
Ross: Do the Mariners have a legit difference maker in their minor league system? If so who?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I get the feeling that the new player-development system will be able to restore some off-track careers. Like, Alex Jackson is 20 years old. Even D.J. Peterson could emerge quickly if he figures something out

10:30
Ross: Who would you predict the M’s biggest breakout player this year is? Biggest bust?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I could see a starting pitcher really disappointing, like Walker, Paxton, or Miley. Marte could end up with a .600 OPS. On the flip side, I’m actually kind of excited to see what Mike Zunino looks like in eight months

10:31
BK: If and when the Red Sox build a new stadium, are you in favor of another Green Monster?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Sure, but I’m in no way invested in this so there’s no personal downside to making the wrong decision

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: If I had to guess, then down the road when the Red Sox play in a new park, I think they’ll have a more normal field, but there will be a Green Monster replica or reference somewhere

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: maybe behind the left field fence

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: They could also compromise and have a partial Green Monster with a smaller height

10:32
Sandy Balderson: I don’t quite understand the opposition to implementing the DH in the NL? Is it purely due to tradition?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: It’s what half the fans are used to

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: That’s literally all

10:33
t: So you maybe saw the Phillies hired a new director of baseball research and development with a not-entirely-baseball analytics background. Can you think of any teams that changed the direction of their front office so much recently? I mean, the old GM goes to coaching on the field and the new front office has a lot of guys with enthusiasm to learn from data, which Amaro seemed, uh, less enthusiastic about I guess.

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Phillies biggest change in that direction, with the Mariners runner-up. Red Sox biggest change in the opposite direction

10:34
Pete: Any chance one of these free agents takes the Drew/Morales route from a few years ago and doesn’t sign until the draft pick is no longer attached?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Not after what became of Drew and Morales

10:34
Ross: Who has the highest WAR year over the course of their career Walker or Paxton and why?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Walker; throws strikes

10:35
MRK III: Why don’t we ever seem to hear about teams moving the fences BACK? Cincy, Philly, Coors, etc. would probably benefit from this.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I would guess it’s much more structurally difficult because then you’re removing seats instead of adding them

10:36
Steve: During the 2014 season, BBRef listed Camden Yards’ 1 year and 3 year park factor as completely neutral (it went back up to hitter friendly this year). It made me wonder if the perception of OPACY as a hitters’ park comes more from the loaded AL east lineups and really bad Orioles pitching for most of the time that the park has been around. Am I crazy or could there be something to this?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I think you are on to something. Plus, people equate homer-friendly with hitter-friendly, and Camden is definitely homer-friendly. But it’s more homer-friendly than *offense*-friendly and the reality of the matter is it only boosts total runs by a little bit.

10:37
Ross: At this point percent chance Zunino becomes a top 15 catcher? MLB starting catcher? Backup? Total bust?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: 20%, 40%, 75%, 15%

10:38
Norrin Radd: How much time does Dickerson get at 1B this season?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think that much — they have alternatives. But it could depend on Dickerson’s foot health

10:39
Prich: How available would you assume Desmonds Jennings to be?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Very available, but teams will be wary of his knee

10:39
Nightshift: Would dipoto considering moves the fences back and build a team around an extreme park?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: I’d love to be in the room if he tried to propose that to his superiors

10:40
Ross: Who has the best year of any AL West pitcher?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Felix if he’s healthy, Keuchel if Felix isn’t

10:41
The Dude of NY: If the Rockies could redo their stadium, do you think they’d build it as a dome?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: If they could pressurize it in an affordable way, yeah, I think almost certainly

10:42
Guest: Do you think Fister will be a good fit in Houston? Brett Strom might be the perfect pitching coach for him, as clearly the Astros make excellent use of pitchers with low velocities.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t call it the best fit — Pittsburgh would be the best fit — but it’s a decent fit.

10:43
BK: Favourite food?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Done well, a perfect fried cheese curd

10:43
Steve: No one wants to see pitchers hit.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a lot more fun after the fact than during.

10:44
Pinstripe Wizard: Which team has the most realistic fan base? Which has the most delusional?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Let me just review my personally-conducted census information…

10:45
NutButters: Will FanGraphs finally issue an apology when the Red Sox come in 3rd place or lower, again, this season?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: You are not stupid, but this is stupid

10:46
Howie: Howie Kendrick back to the Dodgers: 2yr/25m with a first year opt out?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Is that you?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Are you leaking details to the FanGraphs chat?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Those terms seem reasonable

10:46
Gary: For all this talk of “The AL is full of mediocre teams”, it’s still a much better league than the NL, right? Interleague play records for the last decade are outrageous.

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, the AL remains superior overall, even if the NL has the best 1 or 2 or 3 teams

10:47
Pinstripe Wizard: Norm McDonald as Colonel Sanders: Like or Hate?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Dislike, but I don’t have cable so I only ever see that if I’m at a friend’s house or something

10:47
Doug: Do you think the Cubs still end up acquiring a CF before opening day?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: 60/40 yes

10:48
Jordan G: Can I send cash to get Dan Farnsworth’s system reports all right now today?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Sure, but if he had to finish all the rest of them today, they’d be bad

10:48
Mike: If the Pirates made any changes to PNC, fans would riot

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not if they just tweaked the dimensions

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: That would be a weird reason to riot

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t riot

10:49
greg: Zack Cozart is really good with the glove, started to show some power last year and is still in arb. However, he’s 30. Shouldn’t the Reds start to look around and see what they can get for their SS?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Yep. He’ll be one of the midseason trade candidates

10:50
Pinstripe Wizard: Are the Cubs/Cards/Pirates at somewhat of a disadvantage in the 2nd wild card race since the Mets/Nationals get to play the Phillies and Braves so many times?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: It’s there, but it’s slight, because I think the Phillies and Braves will improve a little bit, and the Brewers and Reds are going to be pretty bad

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: All three NL divisions basically have a pair of lousy ballclubs

10:51
Dirty dan mcgraw: Bold prediction trade still to come this offseason?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Lucroy to Texas

10:51
Dirty dan mcgraw: Any defence you can come up with for the Kennedy contract?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: He has better stuff than he did a couple years ago, so even if he loses velocity as he ages, he’ll just return to where he’s already been, where he was successful

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t make it a good contract, but makes it less bad

10:52
Pinstripe Wizard: If you could have a conversation with anyone in baseball, who would you choose and why?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Daniel Norris? Seems like we might have the most in common

10:53
Who_Is_Zorbist: McGee trade got me looking at Rays more careful than normal. They are kind of stacked, huh. 1st base and C only positions where they won’t be above average. If Moore and Smyly are healthy, how likely is it this is the best team in the AL, even without Cobb and Snell?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to surprise. They have a lot of depth almost everywhere. Don’t think they’re going to be best-team-in-league caliber, but definite playoff contender

10:54
Guest: How many mlb games will you attend this yr?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, 3? More if the Mariners are actually good but it’s not a lot of fun to drive to and from Seattle from here

10:54
Poor Man’s Rick Reed: This will be my first baseball season living on the west coast. How great is it going to be watching my favorite team’s games at 4 and then double dipping with the local club at 7?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: It’s awesome. Trying to watch the Mariners from Connecticut was the worst

10:56
NatsFan: In your Monday NL East post there were several comments indicating the Mets rotation is clearly better than the Nats, are we sure that’s true? The projections appear to indicate they’re very similiar

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Mets have a slight advantage, but if you’re a big fan of Joe Ross, he might make it disappear

10:57
Sterling Archer: Hey Jeff, Ever been to Guatemala? My GF and I hiked Pacaya (with a guide) last month. We were on the western peak at sunset and then the other peak starts erupting-mostly smoke, but a bit of lava. Then we walk down the mountain it’s pitch black except for our cell phone lights. Half way down, we get a killer view of Fuego across the valley, and it’s erupting like crazy. Streaks of red lava covering the side against a black background. I’d highly recommend it. Anyone else out there that the Orioles can/should pick-up?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: I had the same experience as you on Pacaya but Fuego stayed mostly silent when we were around πŸ™

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: I think it had a small outburst but nothing like what you saw πŸ™ πŸ™

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Orioles should pick up a cheap corner OF. Could’ve been one of the Rockies but now that option is basically gone

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they should just up and get Bruce

10:59
Norrin Radd: If the NL adopts the DH is there a team that stands to benefit the most?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Long-term, no, it’s all equal. Short-term, Kemp/Padres and Schwarber/Cubs

10:59
Keith: Could Evan Gattis play 1B? Don’t you think it would be worth a shot as a backup to Jon Singleton?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: They’re pretty high on A.J. Reed already

11:00
Derek: If you were a pitching prospect, what would your first reaction be if you found out you were traded to the Rockies?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Hey, all right, I’m going to be in the majors soon

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Okay, it’s time for me to get rolling

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/29/16 by Jeff Sullivan!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

newest oldest most voted
mkdelucas
Member
mkdelucas

“because once something is old enough you can’t touch it for some reason.”

Yes, for some reason. Totally mysterious. Meanwhile, as an example of something perfectly rational, consider: enjoying baseball. Or even, rooting for a particular assortment of baseball players.