Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/10/15

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to live baseball chatting

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Today I’ll be your tour guide through this chat, but not through any others.

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I think I need to give the queue a minute to fill out because holy crap it’s the middle of February

9:05	Comment From GSon a week and a day until Pitchers and Catchers report to Spring Training !!.. wooot !

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Every year I check to see if this is exciting to me. Unfortunately, still no. It’s a milestone — it’s one more step having been taken toward the regular season — but I haaaaate spring training 🙁

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: It’s so freaking long and pointless and senseless to analyze. All that happens is that good players get themselves hurt. By the end of March, everybody feels lost. Spring training never ends.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Also I hate Arizona.

9:07	Comment From guest who are your 2 least favorite hitters and pitchers all time?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Least favorite pitcher is easy, that’s Francisco Rodriguez. John Paschal wrote about this: http://www.hardballtimes.co…

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I also vaguely recall really hating John Lackey although that’s faded with age.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: On the other side, child Jeff hated Paul O’Neill. Adult Jeff hates no one. Why hate?

9:09	Comment From Brett W It’s almost time for spring training. Are you in the best shape of your life?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Actually maybe. It’s close!

9:10	Comment From mtsw Is there a trade market for Brian Matusz? Does he retain any value from his days as an elite prospect that could bring a nice return for the O’s? Their bullpen looks sort of crowded suddenly.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Getting increasingly expensive, doesn’t often get righties out. There’s a trade market, but not one that’s going to bring back a piece that makes any future difference.

9:11	Comment From Ember Do you think Carlos Beltran will bounce back this season, or is he kind of done?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Always a good hitter until last year. It was no secret he was playing through an elbow ailment that eventually required surgery. I can easily see him improving on what he just did, even if he won’t get back to being an All-Star

9:13	Comment From Charlie Kelly Why does Rubén Amaro, Jr. still have a job? Phillies ZiPS was depressing to look at

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like the Phillies ZiPS changed anyone’s evaluation of the current Phillies. We all knew they suck.

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: Under Amaro, the Phillies previously achieved incredible highs. He’s made mistakes, but he’s also become the butt of probably too many jokes. I can see why the Phillies are giving him an opportunity to try to navigate out of this. I also suspect he doesn’t have a much longer leash, but it’s not like he didn’t make the Phillies awesome just a few years ago.

9:14	Comment From GSon Phillies still holding onto Cole Hamels.. Is this a big surprise?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Generally it would be surprising that Hamels hasn’t been moved, but given Amaro’s demands, no, it’s not a shock. Lots of people think he should’ve been moved last summer. The idea now is to wait until midseason and try to take advantage of a seller’s market. It’s not a horrible idea — there’s more value there to get back. If, and only if, Hamels is healthy and good.

9:16	Comment From Bruce Does the MLB commisioner have the authority to suspend players awaiting trial, the way the NFL does?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately I don’t know. Crowdsource!

9:17	Comment From Guy Ike Davis was talking at the A’s Fanfest about taking outfield reps to increase his versatility. Is he trying to literally be Brandon Moss?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Brandon Moss managed a positive outfield UZR. So Davis has a lot to work on

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: It’s interesting though. It’s so hard not to evaluate players by what they’ve most recently done. Moss has been a good hitter for three years. He’s also 31, and Davis is a late 27. Could totally see their career trajectories intersecting this season

9:19	Comment From dom is the AL east always the most hitter friendly division or does that change

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Changes, of course. But last year there was hardly any spread

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: worst division wRC+: NL East, 98. best: AL Central, NL West, 101 (non-pitchers)

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Now let’s say we’re talking about ballparks. Again, hardly any spread

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: (Sorry for doing this math in the middle of a live chat)

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: AL West, NL East: average park factors of 99. NL West, AL East, AL Central: 101

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I need to answer simpler questions, and more simply

9:24	Comment From Bruce Is Los Angeles Angels the laziest name, because it is just a translation, or is “Phillies” lazier?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Los Angeles Angels is impossibly stupid

9:25

Comment From Straw Man
Can you think of a good comp for how high-variance the Rangers’ season looks this year? How they could be good if people bounce back from injuries, but could be awful again and start flipping pieces at the deadline? 2000+ days lost to DL and 60 players used in 2014 means we know little about their 2015 outlook.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I think we have a fairly good understanding of where the Rangers are. They’re not super-high variance, although the biggest question mark is Yu Darvish’s elbow. Reports seem encouraging

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I think Fielder is just not a good player anymore. Ditto Choo. Profar, granted, is a total unknown

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe you could compare them to the Yankees. On paper, I really like the Yankees’ rotation, but almost every single pitcher in there has a red flag or a dark yellow flag

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard for me to see the 2015 Rangers as a contender. That’s even given pretty good health.

9:26	Comment From Brett W Any teams still looking for rotation depth, or are rotations known commodities by Feb. 10?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Rotations are fairly well known, and it’s not like there’s much of anything out there. But you’ll see some minor-league contracts with spring-training invites, and then later in March you’ll see some waiver claims.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: One interesting guy I’ve been thinking about: Erasmo Ramirez. Probably not going to make the Mariners, and he’s out of options. I’ve been waiting all winter for him to end up with the White Sox.

9:27	Comment From guest Surprised by Shields signing? and who do you think offered the most the Marlins?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: In the big picture, very surprised. In the small picture, Shields to San Diego felt like a foregone conclusion for about a week leading up.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Marlins had the high bid

9:28	Comment From Nelson Scottsdale recommendations for food, or other activities?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: If you’re not from the area, sit at a cafe somewhere by a busy street and people watch

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Coming from Oregon, I’ve experienced greater culture shock landing in Phoenix than landing in Belize

9:29	Comment From Charkip Who is the most underrated team out there right now? In my opinion, its the Marlins.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: In my opinion, it is not the Marlins

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the A’s or the Indians?

9:30	Comment From Yo Hi Jeff, why are there no park factors for components like sac flies?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I honestly can’t imagine ever making use of such a component park factor

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t even pay attention to sac flies. Sac flies depend on sequencing anyway — you can’t have a sac fly if someone in front of you didn’t get on base

9:32	Comment From Charlie Kelly First time in awhile Seattle fans are using the Mariners as a distraction from pain post SuperBowl loss

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Whole lot of people in Seattle who like the Seahawks and don’t give a hoot about the Mariners

9:32	Comment From Straw Man Will you (Fangraphs, not you specifically) be doing farm system rankings in March like you did last year?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Ask Kiley, but I believe he’s doing something like that

9:34	Comment From dom what do you think the yankees should do with their bullpen heirarchy? Girardi seems to like set roles

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: In theory Betances and Miller should be used in accordance with the handedness of the hitters coming up in the later innings, but probably Miller will end up in the 8th and Betances will be more of the closer

9:35

Comment From Schiraldi
One interesting feature of the last few years has been the change in the profile of the corner outfielder, partly because of power-hitter scarcity, in the general direction of Gregor Blanco. Are there other positions (or pitcher profiles) where you see or anticipate a shift in the preferences of organizations beginning?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I think we’ve also seen second basemen and third basemen more or less merge. Not a lot of difference between them

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be a surprise to see teams more aggressively moving good players away from catcher.

9:36	Comment From KB Spring Training is boring after about three days.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I think I like January more

9:37	Comment From Andy Provides more value in 2015: Billy Hamilton’s legs (BsR) or Josh Hamilton’s entire body (WAR)

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Josh Hamilton’s body

9:37	Comment From dom do you think we’ll ever see a legitmate two way player (pitcher w another position)

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I think there will be more players who don’t embarrass themselves in the two roles. I don’t think we’ll see a two-way standout

9:38	Comment From Daniel Is it silly that I can’t shake this feeling that the Mariners really aren’t going to be that good?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: No, that just means you’ve been conditioned

9:38	Comment From Bored at work So, who is gonna get Yoan?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say Yankees

9:39	Comment From Small Allen Favorite IPA/least favorite condiment?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I like Sculpin and I do not like the majority of condiments

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I like mustard the best out of them but I have little tolerance for most

9:39	Comment From guest i hate Albert Belle

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think I was old enough to hate Albert Belle, but I see how I would’ve

9:40	Comment From Darth Stout Tony Campana tore his ACL. Think his major league career is over?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Oh geez, that’s a bummer. And of all places for a guy like Campana to get hurt, too

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Endy Chavez eventually re-emerged, so Campana has hope, but it’s not like the good young healthy version was particularly productive.

9:42	Comment From GSon Do the Cuban IFA’s illustrate the massive imbalance between the high revenue teams versus the small revenue teams??

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Moncada does, Padres report aside. But then, Chapman went to Cincinnati. Cespedes went to Oakland. Tomas went to Arizona. Abreu went to Chicago. Betancourt went to Seattle…

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s a dire situation, but it still doesn’t have to be the long-term situation.

9:43	Comment From neal spring training really just heralds that all the fun offseason moves are done

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: James Shields also does that

9:44	Comment From Snid Would it be wise for the Red Sox to trade Pedroia and move on with the youth movement thus giving Castillo and Betts the playing time? What kind of value would they get for him?

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: Pedroia’s not going anywhere, and he’s signed to a team-friendly deal. He’s also likely better in Boston than anywhere else, given his hitting style and given the ballpark. I don’t think the Red Sox are going to have trouble finding playing time for everybody. Players get hurt, and players underachieve.

9:45	Comment From Josho The Bluejays went into the offseason needing to upgrade in the bullpen and 2b but instead upgraded at C & 3b with Martin and Donaldson. Are the marginal wins added over replacement but those acquisitions really better than improving at the places they were the worst last year?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Improvements are improvements. Maybe they couldn’t find a Martin or Donaldson equivalent at the positions of greater need. Both should be big steps forward.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I liked Toronto’s pickup of Devon Travis. He could very well end up the second-half 2B

9:47	Comment From Ron Does having so many scouts view Moncada in person help him, or can a team use this as an opportunity to try and exploit any weaknesses?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: It helps him. The fewer eyes a player gets, the less aggressive teams will be willing to be. With Moncada, teams can get good answers to most of their scouting questions, and then they can make an informed offer. Ultimately, he’s so young and so talented that even though there are some flaws, that won’t pull down his ceiling bid. He’s going to just about max out the market

9:48	Comment From lucas how bad will San Diego’s defense be and what impact might that have on their pitching staff?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: It’s likely to cost them a few dozen runs.

9:49	Comment From Alex Put Gee in the BP or do you see an imminent trade?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I could see him getting moved in March if/when someone gets hurt

9:50	Comment From Charkip World Series prediction?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Boringly, I’ll say Dodgers/Red Sox

9:51

Comment From Jess
On what team would you have predicted Shields having a lower ERA: staying with the Royals or joining the Padres? Basically, do you think the big downgrade in defense is more than offset by the jump to the NL and Petco? Kind of a fantasy question, but also curious from a real baseball run prevention perspective.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Ooh, I like this. Complicated

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Effect of defense could be as many as 8 – 10 runs over 200 innings. League adjustment would be a few runs. And the park adjustment…I’ll give a very slight edge to the San Diego ERA. But it’s close

9:53	Comment From Tucker On what team do you disagree with the projections most?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Depends. Which projections/ What we have on the site is Steamer, but we’re close to having ZiPS

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: With Steamer, probably the Orioles or the Mets

9:55	Comment From Matt Is there any examples of players drastically changing their batted ball profile? I really like Christian Yelich as the heir apparent to Shin Soo Choo, but a sub 20% FB-rate is pretty brutal.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Mike Trout has gone from 33% fly balls to 47% fly balls

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Yelich will remain so extreme a groundball hitter as he matures. But he’ll always have groundball/line drive tendencies, and he can clearly make that work for him. He might max out around 15 dingers, but he should still be a star.

9:58	Comment From Joe True or False: Reds trade Chapman and Cueto by the deadline? Follow-up: What could they realistically expect in return?

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Reds will still be close enough at the deadline that they hold tight, but since I also don’t think they’ll be good enough to make the playoffs, I think they ought to thoroughly examine the midseason trade market. Cueto could/would be the one available ace if you don’t want to cave to Amaro’s asking price for Hamels. Cueto could bring back one piece of longer-term help. Chapman would be nuts, if he has a healthy first half — you’re exceeding the Andrew Miller return.

9:59	Comment From STiVo Do you expect the Padres to win more than 83 games this year?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: In my head, I have them right around 82 – 83