Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/10/17

February 10, 2017

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to baseball chat

9:06	Bourque: Hi, pal!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello pal

9:07	Zach: Better long term outlook- Mets or Yankees and why?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Yankees. Yankees have one of the best outlooks of any team. Of course there’s the farm system, but more importantly, there’s just the unbelievably massive franchise value and revenue level. Their resources are almost unparalleled

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Over the longest time scales, money will make an enormous difference

9:08	Jonathan: What rule change in baseball would you like to see tested/implemented? Please don’t say DH in both Leagues…

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Pitch clock. It’s going to happen

9:08	Willson Contreras: will I be a good pitch framer in 2017?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you’re actually good. I don’t think you’re bad, but I think it’ll be more like Hendricks making you look good

9:09	Goober: Long term…A. Reyes/Mazara or Taillon/Benetendi

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: This smells like a fantasy question but, what the hell, Taillon/Benintendi

9:10

chdavis: Hey Jeff, I’m doing a research project of my choice, and I want to try to determine how to find the peak angle of contact to get the optimal elevation on a baseball. I was also hoping to use this data analytically to help determine a way to find a prospect who would be the best candidate in the minor leagues who could use this data to change their swing and become a potential fringe player for the Majors. In a layman’s term, how to find a similar person to Josh Donaldson that can easily change their swing like Donaldson did to become an essential part of any franchise. What are your thoughts on this?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously this is something that would be better for a non-chat format, but it’s an important question: how do you identify the players who could become successful swing-changers like Donaldson, Pollock, Martinez, etc?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we can really know from the outside — I’m not sure we have enough info, especially when it comes to guys still in the minors. You need guys who have a solid work ethic, first of all. A certain level of open-mindedness. You also probably need guys who have pretty good eyes, or else it’ll just be wasted. And you want to make sure they have quick hands so you can guess at future bat speed

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Probably a case-by-case-basis thing. If a player is successful, great. If he isn’t, why isn’t he? Is he hitting the ball wrong? Does it seem like he could get better at that? As Travis wrote the other day, I think we’re only going to see an increasing number of these adjustments

9:14

HappyFunBall: Where do you stand on this heresy that your compatriot Sawchik proposes, namely that baseball games be allowed to end in a tie after 12 innings? If it were up to me we’d have him drawn and quartered in the town square.

The “problem” with long baseball games is not extra innings. It’s the dead air during the first nine!

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t yet read Travis’ article, and I can tell I’m biased by just not wanting to change how things are right now. I don’t think that baseball has an extra innings problem, personally. Objectively, I’m not opposed to ties, but they would be unpopular, and I think watching one of those really long games really has a chance to create a memory. It’s definitely an altered baseball experience, which I’d be sad to lose

9:15	5 Run Homer: Do you have a favourite hockey player or team? Or are you just the ultimate casual observer?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Daniel Alfredsson, Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Yesterday they scored because the Dallas Stars scored on their own empty net!

9:16	Alex P: If you were the Rockies GM, what would you have done differently this offseason?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Most recently, I would’ve put in a claim on Park

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: That would be a problem, because of Desmond, but I also wouldn’t have signed Desmond, not for those terms

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I doubt I would’ve been too active — I like the Rockies’ general direction, but right now I think they’re caught in between. I liked the Holland move and I probably would’ve just focused on the bullpen

9:18	Slugger27: Why do players that have terrible years get arbitration raises?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Because baseball rewards service time. Not too different from how a lot of industries work

9:19	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: If Mike Trout asked you on a bro date to ride a two seater bike around town, would you sit in the front or back?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Back because it feels safer for some reason

9:20	MPP: What type of haul can the W Sox get for Nate Jones?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: A big one. Maybe not quite on the Ken Giles level, but Jones is super valuable. And he’ll still be super valuable in July, when that premium exists

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good trade competition with the Padres, who could have Hand/Buchter/Capps/Maurer/etc. Maybe the A’s are out of it and selling Doolittle. Decent relief market

9:22	Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: Who’s your favorite non-baseball writer?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Probably Krakauer

9:22	CircleChange11: Please retire the Hello Bork thing….

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Your message is negative. The message you refer to is consistently positive. It is better to be and to act positive

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Also no one takes you seriously when you finish with an ellipsis

9:23	NatsFan: Any chance Chase Utley would go to the Nats and take Clint Robinson’s space? Is that a better option for the team?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I bet it’s something they’re thinking about. And I know Utley is close to making a decision. The difference between the two isn’t great, but Utley would be an improvement for a handful of reasons

9:24	Joe: Anything to get mildly excited about with the O’s trading for Ynoa?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Let me check real fast!

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Looks like, no, because Ynoa is a pitcher, and the Orioles are the Orioles

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: But in seriousness, Ynoa is a recent bullpen conversion. Didn’t miss any bats in the minors as a starter. Had some better luck in the bigs

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: He obviously has a strong arm, and he’s young, so with a more consistent breaking ball he could shine

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I guess if the Orioles intend to use him as a starter again, he’s like an uninteresting No. 7

9:28

Turd Ferguson: Everyone knows that there is a real advantage for the pitcher in most lefty vs. lefty situations. Is there any writing or research on types of pitches that pitchers should throw in opposite hand (righty vs. lefty, etc.) matchups? Like, is there anything a RHP can do to emulate the things that make a LHP successful against left handed batters?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: There’s nothing an opposite-handed pitcher can do to mimic the same-handedness deception, but in general, changeups and cutters work the best when you have the platoon disadvantage. One of the things that allowed Kyle Hendricks to surge forward last year was improving his straight fastball underneath lefties’ hands

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: What kind of perplexes me is that changeups work so well, while two-seamers are the opposite. But the results are the results

9:30	Huphrey: Which player(s) do you think will have a break out year this year?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Perfect opportunity for me to point to Paxton again

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: And get ready for the Keon Broxton bandwagon

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know which players will succeed after making new adjustments. I just know which adjustments I like the most from 2016

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Oh, and Mitch Haniger

9:31	Jose: Why are you and Bork friends?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I consider many of us to be friends

9:31	Graves: Miami Marlins: Worst run organization in Professional Sports?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know enough about the other professional sports, but, yes, they have been a complete and utter disaster

9:33	bl27: Cameron Maybin should be the leadoff man with the Angels ? 1Maybin-2Calhoun-3Trout-4Pujols-5Cron ?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I’d be interested in Calhoun leading off and Trout batting second, but Maybin wouldn’t be an awful idea, if somewhat traditional

9:33	BaseballDesert: With how broad your attention hasto be as a writer, how often do you watch a full game from start to finish? Under what circumstances?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Mostly, it’s the playoffs. During the season I’m almost always bouncing around. The playoffs re-introduce a fixed focus. It’s weird and refreshing

9:35	J: If a player is worth their contract exactly how much does their talent or years of control affect their trade value?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: In theory it shouldn’t make a difference, but I imagine it would go up with the talent, because that player will be worth more to contending teams, and contending teams will trade value for great players

9:35	Graves: The New Owner of the Marlins should move the team to _______ and rename them the _________ ?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to at least see the Marlins get a shot in Miami with a real owner first

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Loria didn’t give the fans a chance

9:37	5 Run Homer: Could there be a correlation between Ryan Raburn’s extreme volatility and the amount of lefties/righties he faces? Because I seem to remember him being a lefty masher.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Modest correlation. Had the same platoon rates in 2012 and 2013, when he was volatile, but the last two years there’s been a major shift. Faced lefties almost exclusively in 2015. Then the Rockies for some reason let him face more righties in 2016. It didn’t work!

9:38	Robbie: If Zack Greinke goes into the All-Star break with an ERA close to 3.00, is he gone? Assuming the Diamondbacks aren’t miraculously in the playoff hunt

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: If Zack Greinke is pitching well, I’m not convinced the Diamondbacks will be that bad. More importantly, he feels like more of an offseason trade candidate, because of the amount of money he’s linked to

9:39	Dan: Who are your picks for 2017 AL/NL MVPs & Cy Youngs?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Welp, let’s see

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, sorry, I can’t make this particularly interesting. Trout, Bryant, Sale, Kershaw

9:41	Don: Money being equal, if you could only chose 3 Cubs to start your team around, who would they be?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Bryant/Russell/Contreras? I’d try not to build around any pitchers, and I’m emphasizing the importance of youth here

9:42

E: Since teams don’t want to burn their bullpen in extra innings I propose this idea. After the 12th inning only position players may pitch. This will lead to more runs scored to hopefully end the game and maybe we’ll see more players like Rick Ankiel and Micah Owings because they’ll have unique value.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Managers don’t actually like using position players either because of the seemingly increased injury risk

9:44

Eric Weinstein: Is it just me, or is MLB’s approach to pace of play/time of game very frustrating? It seems like they are simultaneously willing to entertain ideas that intrude on the core rules of the game (start guys on 2nd base, pitch clock), while also refusing to address the most obvious problem: More pitching changes = more commercial breaks and interminably long middle innings. Why should the networks get a windfall from the trend toward more pitching changes? Why not try out Bill James suggested solution of no commercial breaks for pitching changes?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: MLB loves commercial breaks because commercial breaks mean MLB gets more money. MLB exists to make money. The best we can hope for is that commercial breaks don’t get any longer from here. I don’t know how this might change down the line when baseball is essentially removed from cable, but for now, I think we’re stuck as is

9:45	Nientsniew: Why is one 6 WAR player more valuable than two 3 WAR players?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Because you should be able to get more than 0 WAR out of the extra roster spot

9:47	Robbie: Do you think Brandon Drury is actually about a replacement-level player? I feel playing (admittedly probably below-average defense) at a natural position would make him at least an average starter

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: No, I think Drury is better than 0 WAR. The Diamondbacks made him play a bunch in the outfield for the first time, and it looks like he didn’t take to that very well. Put and leave him somewhere more familiar and he’s a useful piece

9:48	Kristen: Now that the backlog of FA 1-dimensional power-hitters has cleared up a bit, will Franklin Gutierrez finally find a home soon? Hard to believe a guy who absolutely kills leftiessuch a lefty-killer is still on the market.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: The problem is that Gutierrez is increasingly limited, physically, on account of his disease. He can clearly still hit the ball super hard, but he’s hard to plan around, because his availability can change from one day to the next

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Teams and managers don’t like the idea of unpredictably having to play with a short bench

9:50	Graves: Will Baseball ever gain popularity in Brazil? So many Latin countries love baseball, but Soccer and MMA dominates Brazil.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: There have been three big-leaguers from Brazil, and they debuted in 2012, 2013, and 2015. Baseball will never be the nation’s official sport, but it has a growing profile

9:51	Mike: When do we see Quintana traded and where?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I can see him as a Yankee in July

9:52	Curtis: Which “contender” has the weakest bench?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Nationals bench isn’t very good. Tigers bench isn’t very good. To be honest I have not thought about this very much

9:53	cardsjason: Happy Friday. What does a Jose Altuve extension look like? Does he have a similar year to last year? Better? Worse?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: He’s still under control another three years, so they don’t have to work on that if they don’t want to. We did see the Royals extend Salvador Perez when he was in the middle of an extremely team-friendly contract, so there’s some kind of precedent

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I’m out of reasons to doubt Altuve. Can’t see another 6.7 WAR, but I do believe his true talent now is between 5 and 6. He does everything and he’s still quite young

9:58	KGE: Opinions on Jerad Eickhoff? Was a pleasant surprise w/ the Phillies last year. Do you think he can take another step forward this year (developing his third pitch)? or do you expect him to be about the same?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Underrated. He faced kind of a soft schedule, but I liked how he tightened up his breaking balls as the season went on.