Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/18/14

February 18, 2014

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Look at that, everybody! On time!

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: I’m too pleased with myself. I better take a few minutes.

9:00	Comment From @lomomarlins Votto is averaging 65 RBI over the last two years, so he’s clearly bad. Bazinga.

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact:

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Last year, he was one of the least-clutch players in baseball!

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: That is, by the win expectancy Clutch score.

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: For his career, he’s been positive Clutch. But I suspect part of the perceived problem a year ago was that he really was not delivering enough in important situations. That should balance out going forward.

9:01	Comment From Zach Ok…Jimenez signing…go!

9:03

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t love four years, but the reality is that $12.5 million AAV isn’t that much anymore. In the immediate, it’s the market rate of about two wins, and Jimenez has a reasonable shot of being worth that much. He probably doesn’t improve the rotation a lot, but he does help the depth, in that now Gausman looks like the No. 6 instead of the No. 5. That’s a good weapon to have stashed away.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: I think tomorrow I’m going to write something about the Orioles’ window, and the post is going to look a lot like my post about the Royals’ window. It’s not 2014-2015 or bust

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: (spoiler alert)

9:04	Comment From tonyyyy The 2014 team season projections and playoff odds changed. Does that mean the ZIPS odds have been added in?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: No, Appelman just ran an update. Hadn’t had one of those since at least right before Burnett signed with the Phillies. When ZiPS is added in, I imagine you’ll hear about it.

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, the Phillies’ playoff odds were 10% pre-Burnett. Now they’re a little over 14%. That’s based on Steamer and our own depth charts.

9:05	Comment From Guest Ubaldo Jimenez deal: great value or bad fit for division/ballpark?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully there are more than two options

9:05	Comment From Longoball Ubaldo is gonna get wrecked in the AL East, right?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: And then a good observer adjusts for quality of competition

9:06	Comment From Marcus A. Why does every writer think their team should go after Capuano but only 3 teams are reported to be “in” on him? Is there more health risk than we think?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not actually all that good, and there seems to have been a market shift against pitchers with health questions. Capuano’s had a couple Tommy John surgeries and teams seem extra wary

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s anything physically wrong with him now — I think the perception is just that he isn’t too reliable going forward

9:07	Comment From Joe Will the M’s sign Cruz or Santana? Does either vault them into competing for the division?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll probably sign Cruz

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: They will not be good

9:08	Comment From Brad How many wins do you think a good manager accounts for each you? I was thinking not much after watching Matheny and Farrell do a lousy job in the World Series.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: The crazy thing is I have absolutely no idea. We’ll probably never have an idea. I think the answer could be around a small handful, but for all I know the truth is even crazier than pitch-framing. Maybe a manager really can allow a team to sink or swim

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Analysis is basically impossible, if you want to capture the whole scope of a manager’s job

9:09	Comment From Matt The Ms are reported to be in on Capuano and out on Cruz! Feeling vindicated?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll still sign Cruz and they’re probably targeting Capuano as a result of Iwakuma’s injury. Been expecting them to move Franklin for a starter

9:10	Comment From Marcus A. Does Ubaldo Jimenez signing with the Orioles make it more or less likely they sign one of Cruz/Morales?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I still expect them to end up with Morales

9:11	Comment From Richard Do you think shifting to 1b will improve Mauer’s BA and OBP?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Over last year’s .324/.404? No

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I do think it’ll help him remain a positive offensive contributor for longer

9:12	Comment From Guest Any guess how long before Votto’s deal is considered one of the worst?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect by the time he’s declined into a less-awesome player, his salary won’t look that enormous. Of course every one of these contracts looks worse with each passing year but then that ignores that the value is toward the front

9:13	Comment From Andrew Where do you think Barry Zito will go? Is he a good fit for LAA?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: home

9:14	Comment From Bob Throneberry How good a shot do Paxton, Duffy and Ventura now have to crack their respective rotations?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Paxton’s on the fence — depends on Scott Baker, Erasmo Ramirez, and any other acquisition. One of Duffy/Ventura should make the rotation out of camp but they might want to give Davis another opportunity first

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Of interest: http://www.kansascity.com/2014/02/18/4831812/combination-of-duffy-ventura-present.html

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: “The other path for Duffy/Ventura: Go to Class AAA Omaha, work as a starting pitcher and prepare for an arrival later in the season. But Yost, of course, is in charge of winning in 2014, not winning in 2017. Here is his rationale for balancing the short-term gain versus the long-term development.

“Look, you’ve got short windows,” he said. “There’s not a lot of teams out there like the Braves that won 14 consecutive division championships, right? Windows, they tend to be two, three, four years long. And I think when you get in those windows, you better take full advantage of it.”

9:17	Comment From Catoblepas any reason for the red sox to spend the dempster money? net positive for them?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Hey, it’s another team that could get in on Capuano. Dempster isn’t a big loss, wins-wise, but if nothing else it was helpful to have that emergency depth.

9:19	Comment From Andrew Chances of Jered Weaver finishing in the top 3 in AL Cy Young Voting?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Very high, in 2011

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t like his chances now with his stuff in decline. He’s still a fine starting pitcher but he’s left behind the realm of the elite

9:20	Comment From Chris_FB Which team in MLB could most credibly say “to heck with free agents / trades, just play the kids”, and still have a close to .500 or better season?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Starting when?

9:20	Comment From Jack Who is the Astro’s closer?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: There isn’t one

9:20	Comment From RyanS Next of the Frozen free agents to sign?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Santana shouldn’t be far off now that Jimenez has clarified the market

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Cruz will go whenever he or the Mariners decides to cave on a few million dollars

9:21	Comment From a guy Is there a way to see somebody’s defensive split stats? E.g. Ryan Zimmerman’s first half vs second half UZR

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: no 🙁 used to have home/road splits but even those have disappeared

9:21	Comment From Andrew Is there a way the Angels could get Homer Bailey?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: The guy the Reds are signing to a long-term contract extension? No. No, not this year.

9:22	Comment From CMR Do you enjoy reading about volcanic processes on other planets?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but not as much as I enjoy reading about volcanic processes on our own planet.

9:23	Comment From Grack Zeinke what do you think about the Jays whiffing on the best SPs on the market? Ervin looks like bad fit there… as bad a fit as Nelson Cruz is in Seattle. Now, flip it, and it makes way more sense – Cruz in TOR and Ervin in SEA…

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Not going to blame the Jays for not going to four years for Ubaldo, or for not dumping everything they have into the Tanaka wagon

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: They could stand to improve their rotation, but they could also stand to improve at second base, and I imagine that’s the move they’ll make this spring.

9:24	Comment From Catoblepas are the Phillies really at that high-leverage a point of the win curve, that Burnett can make a 4% difference? woah.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, he improves them by about two wins. They’re not actually at that high-leverage a point of the win curve. If they were, maybe that’d be more like 10%

9:25	Comment From Lemonpinella As an M’s fan, should I feel/you yourself feel this way about the upcoming season: 1 Excitement 2 Nervous anticipation 3 Dread 4 Bored antipathy 5 other

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Try to feel something positive because if you feel something negative that kind of defeats the whole purpose of this pastime.

9:26	Comment From Reddickulous I haven’t been paying too much attention. Is the AL East still the default best division (i.e. the one you don’t want your team to be in)? How about the division you wish your team was in?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Let me run some quick numbers:

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: AL East, this year, projected for 202 total WAR

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: NLW: 200

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: ALW: 190

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: ALC: 184

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: NLC: 179

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: NLE: 166

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: That’s all Steamer + depth charts. Will be interesting to see how things change with ZiPS inputs

9:31	Comment From David If Homer Bailey gets 6/100, Jordan Zimmermann gets _____

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: 6/110?

9:31	Comment From Grack Zeinke no, it’s more likely that Capuano has just been looking for a multi-year (2 or 3 yr) deal and teams prefer 1.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: It’s both, but word was a few weeks ago that Capuano had reduced his demands. He could/should be readily available for a year

9:33	Comment From Joe Is Steamer unusually down on Baltimore? Playoff odds are just 5.5%, which is 3rd lowest in the AL. Projected for just 76 wins. This seems off, right?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Ubaldo isn’t in there yet, and there are considerable projected steps back for Davis/Machado. Also the division is really solid and the Orioles might well be the worst team. Steamer might be a little low, but I dont’ think it’s egregious

9:36	Comment From Guest Does Morales make any sense now that he’s probably cheap? Or does Hart/Morrison/Smoak make him a net loss by encouraging playing all 4 at once and making our pitchers cry?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t make any sense to have all of them on the Mariners

9:37	Comment From KJ I haven’t seen a lot of talk about Chad Billingsley, do you think he can make a comeback/impact this year?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: He can be fine depth down the stretch, but he’s still on the road back from TJS, and as recent history has shown, the rehab trail can be littered with setbacks and the Dodgers would be right to not count on him to be a major factor

9:39	Comment From Mike Frown Baltimore better not forget to sign Ubaldo’s shrink.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: http://dirkhayhurst.com/2014/02/the-right-to-break/

9:40	Comment From Gila Monster Don’t team like Baltimore minimize the impact of signings like the Ubaldo one by poor management? Because seemingly a rotation with Ubaldo and Gausman starting and Norris in the bullpen is better than one with Ubaldo and Norris/Miguel Gonzalez in the rotation.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: The way things are on opening day isn’t the way things are in June or September. As time passes, the Orioles will find their best rotation

9:43	Comment From David K. If you were the reds which two would you like to have over the next five years? Bailey, Latos, or Cueto?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I just spent a couple minutes trying to decide and honestly I couldn’t come up with a clear preferred two

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Bailey/Latos just because of Cueto’s developing history of injury problems

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: But the bigger point is that I could be convinced in any direction

9:45	Comment From Joey Votto How much do you think me walking all the time, being as it’s hard to have a very “clutch walk” per se, affects my Clutch Score Rating?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: You have a positive career Clutch score with a 21% walk rate in high-leverage situations

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Not many “clutch walks” but a walk is still a hell of a lot better than an out

9:46	Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision If Pujols’ best contract value is in the front of his deal…

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: As much as I think he’s going to bounce back some, uh oh, disaster alert

9:47	Comment From Scott Better Hitter – Billy Butler or Anthony Rizzo?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Butler by a slim margin today, Rizzo in a number of months

9:49	Comment From Mark How much do you trust Wil Myers this year? Can he become a top 15/keeper worthy outfielder? He strikes out a ton and his babip was pretty high last year, I could see him struggling this year. But the talent is there.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: First 20 games in the majors: 3 walks, 25 strikeouts

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Remainder: 30 walks, 66 strikeouts

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I like him as an overall above-average player who isn’t a superstar, but who is cheap enough to be worth crazy surplus value for a number of years

9:50	Comment From Dave Starting to get abit concerned Toronto arn’t going to do anything. Abit worrying to see every other team in the AL East improve themselves whilst we have have done next to nothing to improve ourselves. What do you think happens now?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Spring-training trade for a second baseman. There’s a glut still available

9:53	Comment From Marcus A. Bailey extension talks are hovering around 6/$100m. Seem fair for both sides? It strikes me as a little team friendly.

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: Not too dissimilar from the contract Anibal Sanchez signed to stay with the Tigers. Values five free agency years around $90 million, or $18 million per. Seems like about the right rate for a good starting pitcher who isn’t an ace, and who doesn’t have a long track record of being as good as he was in his most recent season

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: With another good season maybe Bailey snags some more tens of millions, but he could get hurt or lose some of his velocity gain. This seems pretty fair to me

9:55	Comment From Matt What is the optimal line up spending on hitting/defense/and pitching assuming a team had $100M to spend? There must be one right?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Probably something like 45/10/45

9:56	Comment From Mario Lopez Explain how Ubaldo signing “doesn’t improve the rotation a lot.” Have you seen that rotation? yuck.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Ubaldo isn’t that good, and the Orioles already had at least five starters who are okay

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-could-improve-the-most-with-ervin-santana-or-ubaldo-jimenez/

9:57	Comment From _David_ In rating a team’s scouting and development, is hitting on top picks more important or is it total output? If Seager and Ackley essentially became what the other was supposed to be, does that cancel out or would you judge the Mariners worse because of Ackley?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say total output divided by expected output, based on opportunities (like draft position)

9:58	Comment From Sox Nation Can Stroman make the Jays starting rotation out of spring training?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: He sure can, but he probably will not