Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/24/17

February 24, 2017

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:08	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:08	ChiSox2020: Is Boston’s outfield going to be all time great on both sides of the ball?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Allow me to say this much —

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Top projected outfields, this season: 1. Angels, 11.8 WAR 2. Red Sox, 11.1 3. Pirates, 9.8 4. Marlins, 9.6 5. Nationals, 8.1

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: I know what you’re getting at, and obviously there’s massive upside if you’re a huge fan of Benintendi. And I’m a pretty big fan of Benintendi! But at this juncture the Red Sox might not even have the best outfield in baseball *this season*, so it’s way too early to talk about history

9:11	Ross: What Mariner beats his projection by the most? Under performs the most?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Let me just look real fast…

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll take the over on both Dyson and Haniger. Dyson because of his defense, Haniger because I buy him as an all-around asset today

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Suppose I’ll take the under on Smyly as a 3-win pitcher

9:14	Burrito: Hi Jeff, what numbers would you predict for Brandon Finnegan this season ? Thanks

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I think Finnegan is going to establish himself as something like a legitimate No. 3; last year he got kind of screwed by his catchers, and he deserved a far more favorable strike zone than he got

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Some of that was on his own command, but I like his pitch mix

9:16	libre: Where can I camp for PitchTalks tickets?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: On the internet

9:16	Ross: Does your gut tell you the Mariners finally break their postseason drought or are we in for another year of heartbreak?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: When it comes to the Mariners my gut is distinctly pessimistic

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I absolutely buy them as a real wild-card contender. The problem is, there are like five of those teams, or something, and one injury could derail any one of them

9:18	Andy F: Any ideas to what degree teams use the WBC as an international scouting ground?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: It’s useful supplemental information, especially in the cases where teams are able to get pitches and batted balls tracked. But no team is going to reach a judgment based on WBC play alone

9:19	Nats: Would you be worried about the Nationals lineup going into the season? The first five seem fine, but Werth, Zimmerman, and Wieters/Norris seems to leave a big hole in the bottom half of the lineup. Is this issue largely overlooked due to questions at the back end of the bullpen?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: First of all, the top five might be the best top five in the game. Harper/Rendon/Murphy/Eaton/Turner is absurd

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Secondly, Wieters is fine, Werth is probably something like an average hitter, and Zimmerman still generated good exit velocities last season even when his numbers were in the toilet. I do agree that depth is a potential concern, but I think it’s a bigger deal *after* you get past the starters

9:21	libre: Dave podcasts from his car, Sam podcasted from cricket-and-ant infested lands (his home I guess). Where do you call in for EW?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Same place I do everything else. This chair in this room in my own residence

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes I don’t know why I have a laptop since I pretty much never go anywhere with it

9:22	IWB: If Martin Perez’s 2017 plus 3 options were guaranteed, how many teams agree to take his guaranteed 4/27M contract?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Most of them. A few might have budget obstacles, but Perez is still fairly young, he just had his best fastball in a while, and that guarantee is awfully modest for a regular starter

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: To be sure, Perez is not very good. But he takes his turns, gets grounders, and throws enough strikes. Still some upside in there, and $7m a season isn’t much

9:24	Carl Fogarty: Long-term who do you think emerges as the better hitter, Andrew Benintendi or Nomar Mazara?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Benintendi. Easy

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I prefer both Benintendi’s judgment and Benintendi’s bat-to-ball skills

9:25	Hi: Who do you think gets more saves for San Diego and Colorado this season – Maurer, Capps. Ottavino, Holland in Colorado ? Thank you

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: This is a thinly-disguised fantasy question! But, what the hell. Maurer and Capps will end up about 50/50, and Holland will out-close Ottavino

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I assume Maurer will close from the beginning, and then Capps will eventually overtake him. And then there will be trades and who knows

9:27	Kevin: With the emergence of late-bloomers like Donaldson, Murphy and Turner as unlikely superstars, is the talent-margin so slim among major league batters that virtually anyone can reach that level with the proper adjustment?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: That’s the big question, right? How narrow is the talent distribution? When I’ve thought about this from a different perspective, I’ve considered hangers-on like Chone Figgins, who refuse to believe they’re toast when they’re toast. I don’t think it’s stubbornness; I think it’s feeling like you’re the same as ever, when you’re actually at 95%, and losing that 5% is enormously important

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: With certain players, I think we know enough to know they can’t be offensive juggernauts. Ben Revere will never hit for power. Billy Burns and, I don’t know, Andrelton Simmons will never hit for power. But there are a lot more potential power hitters than there are current power hitters, and we’re going to see more of these transitions

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I think of Eric Hosmer. If he could ever generate more lift, why couldn’t he be a 140 wRC+ type?

9:30	Dave: What would the Sox have to include with Robertson to get Robles from the Nats?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Jones?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Robles is valuable. Robertson, given his salary commitment, is far less so

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I suppose if the Sox took on the entirety of Robertson’s salary, then they’d be close

9:32	Raindog: Jeff, as an O’s fan, every day that goes by without me reading a headline “Orioles sign Fister and/or Lewis because obviously Vidal Nuno doesn’t count as depth” makes me a little crazier. Any idea why this isn’t happening?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Well I mean, firstly, those pitchers aren’t very good

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: But I do imagine the Orioles are still thinking about rotation depth, as they evaluate Tillman. Might just want a little more time to evaluate their own internal options. And for whatever it’s worth, I do think Nuno is modestly interesting as a potential back-end arm. He stays around the strike zone, which is a good starting point

9:34	Slamboni: If Tyson Ross puts up 2015 numbers this year when he returns, are the Rangers going to win the AL West?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’d still be a few games worse than the Astros, but they’d be in the playoffs for sure

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: And then they’d go in with Darvish/Hamels/Ross. Fun! If you ignore what happened just last October, I guess

9:35	Zonk: I didn’t realize until yesterday that the White Sox have acquired both Geovany Soto and Giovanni Soto. Is it weird to really want both of them to make the 25-man, for an all G. Soto battery?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Not at all. Saw a clip on Twitter the other day of Soto pitching to Soto. Made me feel warm on a cold February afternoon

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: And then I was reminded by Grant Brisbee that Chris Young is 0-for-16 with eight strikeouts against Chris Young

9:37	Jeffrey: Do you think Dan Straily takes another step forward in Miami or what his year in Cincy was in 2016 the best we can hope for?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I think this is what he is

9:38

Jack: The Sports Devil pays you a visit, and he wants to make a deal. He says he can guarantee you that you’ll see multiple Mariners World Series and Senators Stanley Cup victories in your lifetime, but he’s a cruel, sadistic demon, and there’s a catch — until the first championship one of them wins, you need to have Colby Rasmus’s beard. If you agree to this deal and then shave it off before one of them has won, both teams will be cursed to never win a title. While the Sports Devil can make sure the championships happen in your lifetime, he can’t control exactly what years they happen in, so you don’t have to worry about him waiting until you’re 100 to let them win. Do you do it?

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely not. Both teams will probably win during my lifetime anyway, and for whatever fleeting happiness I’d experience with a title, I would experience daily, constant disappointment in myself having that god-awful neckbeard. My girlfriend would leave me and I’d never be able to find a suitable replacement. Plus my neck would itch all the time. The hairs would get tangled in buttons and caught on zippers

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: A championship is just not that important to me. Not neckbeard-important

9:39	Rickey O’Sunnyvale: What’s up with Blanton? Amazingly quiet for such a strong pitcher. Think he has something lined up, like with LA?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: The popular speculation is that, at this point, he’s just waiting on some important reliever to get injured. I think his own history as a disappointing pitcher is being held against him to some extent. But he will get a job and he’ll be pretty good at it

9:41	Connor: I’m finding I wait till the later rounds to draft 1st basemen this year. Are there any good late round pickups at 1st? Right now, I’m mostly drafting guys like Tommy Joseph and Kendrys Morales right now. Are there any guys earlier that I should target instead?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: This is a good opportunity to issue a reminder that I don’t play in any fantasy leagues. So I’m not really equipped to offer useful fantasy-baseball advice. I don’t even know what stats are counted in your league 😐

9:43	Andy F: Any idea to what degree teams use the WBC as an international scouting grounds? Are almost all of these players already known to teams?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I know I already addressed the first part of this but you added a second part, so I’ll just say I’m sure the best players on every roster are already known to teams, but I doubt the Twins have a file on, say, Israel’s Shlomo Lipetz

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: So there’s a definite opportunity here for off-the-radar players to get a foot in the door

9:44	BL27: do you think Tyler Glasnow will start the season in MLB or AAA ?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: My gut says MLB, but if it’s Triple-A, I’d get it, since he’s working on changing his delivery. No matter what, he’ll spend most of the year with Pittsburgh

9:46	Steve Zissou: Jonathan Villar, to me, is one of the more interesting ascensions of 2016. He was top 5 in MLB for BABIP at .373. Is this a reflection of a lucky year, or a player leveraging his speed to beat out close plays, and that his BABIP is sustainable?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Over the past 20 years, there are 523 players who have batted at least 2,500 times. The highest BABIP in the group belongs to Mike Trout, at .360. Joey Votto is at .359

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: Jonathan Villar is not Mike Trout, and he’s not Joey Votto. He hits a few too many pop-ups and he just doesn’t have that off-the-bat zip that the better players do. He’s pretty good, and his career mark so far is .347, but I wouldn’t be surprised if last season ends up being the best offensive season of his career

9:50	Q-Ball: Maddon says they will bat Kyle Schwarber leadoff. What do you think about that specifically, and I guess using slow-footed sluggers to leadoff generally?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Carlos Santana led off for the Indians last season about half the time. Schwarber isn’t close to that slow

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I think having good at-bats is more important than being fast, in that role, and I also think the Cubs consider Schwarber more athletic than the average fan does

9:53	Rickey O’Sunnyvale: Kopech or Y Alvarez as your favored pitching prospect?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Kopech

9:53	libre: Why is it more likely that the Dodgers will use a lot of starters than a team like the Padres who don’t have any real MLB arms in their 1-5?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: It isn’t

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: It’s more likely that the Dodgers will use a lot of talented starters, because the Padres don’t have any

9:55	Raindog: The 8 lowest walk rates last season all belonged to middle infielders. This is a pretty weird coincidence, right? And it’s not like they’re all slap hitter that nobody is scared of – 5 of the 8 hit 20+ HR. Do you have thoughts on this?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Some of this, of course, is just random chance, but I bet there’s a link to middle infielders being smaller on average, and more athletic, and those are players who, for a long time, would’ve been instructed to maximize their balls in play

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: In other words, they’d be more aggressive in an effort to avoid deep counts

9:57	Chris: Is Delino Deshields simply a 4th outfielder or can he be a MLB regular, possible high OBP 10 home runs and 40 steals kinda guy?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: At present he strikes out too much for someone without much power. Michael Bourn made a career out of this skillset, but Bourn, for a time, looked like an elite-level defender. DeShields hasn’t shown that yet

9:59	J: I’ve been thinking about how much is speed really worth especially for outfielders since it seems it’s more involved in their range. We kinda know the spread between the best and worst baserunners and range between fielders but how much of those things are from pure speed?