Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/4/14

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys. The usual!

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: This is probably going to be my shortest chat ever. Will have to wrap up in time to get ready for a Clubhouse Confidential bit

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully there’s nothing to talk about!

9:06	Comment From _David_ Okay Mariners, now that I know what that feels like, YOUR TURN.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: And it won’t be as good no matter what because now the Seahawks have broken the curse!

9:07	Comment From Guest Who gets Bonafacio?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s just pile everybody on the Yankees

9:07	Comment From Cochise Is Oliver more optimistic and Steamer more pessimistic or realistic?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Oliver is kind of insane with some minor leaguers and fielding projections

9:07	Comment From Beeg Mon Can we please avoid talking about how late you are? It’s just boring by now (and I usually find you very funny!)… 🙁

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: It’s going to be one of those things where it goes from funny to annoying to obnoxious to funny again

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I hope

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: This is why I usually chat for like 150 minutes

9:09	Comment From Gson Heyward’s signing.. should the Braves have pushed for his arb and at least one or two more years?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Who’s to say that they didn’t?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: You see a guy that young and that good and of course you want to cheaply buy out some free-agent seasons but we seldom really know how negotiations actually proceeded and maybe Heyward didn’t want to make that commitment yet

9:10	Comment From Dancing Derk Can you put a numerical amount on how much teams value their draft picks?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: It’s something I’m always thinking about, but then again it’s also not easy since every team is in position to make a different sacrifice. So it’s not like you can just calculate an average market value of a pick. I’d say you approach eight figures as you approach the earlier and earlier bits of the first round

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Toward the back of the first round you’re probably looking at something more like $4-6 million

9:12	Comment From john Aldemys Diaz. Mets possibility?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Possibility but to my knowledge they haven’t yet been linked

9:13	Comment From CMR Jeff! Is it worth making toast by any means other than in a toaster?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: french toast

9:13	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV Oh man, look at me, I’m Jeff Sullivan and I’m going to be on Clubhouse Confidential.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: And I’ll be talking about something other than what I believed I would be talking about!

9:14	Comment From Dave Should we know where the FA pitchers are going at the end of the week, or will this drag on into ST?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously some of them will drag into ST but the bigger names should make decisions soon with their prices slipping. This week makes for a fine guess. But then Lohse didn’t sign until March 25…

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Guys like Capuano might have to wait for injuries. Santana/Jimenez shouldn’t have to do that

9:15	Comment From John Stamos On a scale from 1 to Baseball, what is your favorite sport to watch in April?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: NHL

9:15	Comment From Art Vandelay Do you think we can expect a little bit of a bounce back year from Pujols?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely. I am. Not going to be vintage Pujols but he ought to be a lot healthier than he was for most of last summer

9:16	Comment From Grack Zeinke do you think the M’s can do both Cruz and Rodney?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:16

Comment From Guest
Just for exercise, say the current league-wide philosophy is to have a heavy dose of groundball/high K pitchers. Do teams then start attempting to acquire hitters that stats indicate are better at hitting such pitchers? I’m wondering if there are macro-like adjustments that get overlooked.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Well, you’re not going to change the pool of available hitters, right?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: The same players will exist. Some might happen to end up in increasing demand, but ultimately the same players will be spread around to the same teams. Can’t just conjure up more players who can hit groundballing/strikeouty pitchers.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Additionally and relatedly, I suspect you’d have to see a pretty strong trend before teams make a point of responding to it. The default will always be “get good players” no matter what’s going on league-wide

9:19	Comment From Guest Andrew Baggarly ranked the Padres the worst pitching staff in the NL West. He’s joking, right?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Our Steamer projections have them as second-worst and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Baggarly were a little more optimistic about guys like Cain and Lincecum

9:20	Comment From Compton Where will I be able to find a video of your Clubhouse Confidential appearance?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: No idea. Sometimes they get uploaded to MLB.com, sometimes it’s like they never happened

9:21	Comment From Nick Which international import is more likely to win AL Rookie of the Year? Abreu or Tanaka?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka by a crazy margin

9:21	Comment From Gson Beyond the boxscore has defined prospects in a column by Chris St John by K %, BB % and age at levels. He has stated he will incorporate ISO as a means to impart power into the projection. Do you agree with the approach?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: It’s going to miss a lot.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Noble attempt but there’s no substitute for observation because sometimes there are raw tools that simply haven’t translated yet and those players can’t be ignored

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Hanley Ramirez: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=ramire001han

9:23	Comment From Cochise Will Cruz get a Figgins type deal from the Mariners?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Not sniffing four years

9:23	Comment From John Stamos Do you ever use PECOTA?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Not anymore

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: No point. All projections are more or less alike

9:24	Comment From Dave What exactly does the Mariners lineup look like if they sign Cruz? They’ve got 5 guys for 3 positions

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Cruz to right, Smoak/Morrison/Hart to split 1B/DH, Ackley in center, Saunders in left

9:25	Comment From Jack Steamer clearly hasn’t realized B. Gardner is playing LF this year….will this be fixed?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: You can adjust it a few runs in your head

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: It is meaningful that Gardner just had a 0 UZR in full-time CF

9:26	Comment From Brad Do any of the MLB Network analysts agree with Kenney’s sabermetric ideas or do they just look upon him with disdain?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: more like fascination

9:27	Comment From Art Vandelay Do you think Prince Fielder can hit 40+ home runs in Arlington?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Sure can! Especially if you give him hundreds of games

9:27	Comment From Dancing Derk who has a better year: Santana, Garza or Jiminez

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Garza

9:28	Comment From Mike Jeff – which, in your opinion is the more useless stat, pitcher wins or ice hockey goalie wins?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Pitcher wins

9:28	Comment From John Stamos If you could wake up every morning snuggling with one MLB player, who would it be?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Clayton Kershaw because his wallet would be nearby and he seems like he’s generous

9:28	Comment From StevePete Chances Trout gets an extension from the Angels after opening day??

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Come back next winter

9:30	Comment From Dancing Derk do you think players will request in their contracts to not be tied to compensation? like Beltran with the Giants

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: This isn’t allowed — it’s laid out explicitly in the CBA

9:32	Comment From Boston Phan Do you think Scherzer will sign an extension soon? Do you think he aims higher than he would have given what Kershaw signed for? They can’t pay him more than Verlander, right?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Keep in mind that Verlander got 7/$180m, but the first two years were valued at $20m as per his previous contract. So he basically got 5/$140m in “new money”

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think Scherzer’s getting $28m AAV

9:34	Comment From Guest Rotowire says: “Lagares, based on manager Terry Collins’ comments Thursday, could start 2014 in a platoon or possibly at Triple-A Las Vegas, ESPN New York reports.” Goes on to explain Duda needs to get at bats. How foolish is this?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Let something happen before you get mad about it

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: http://nypost.com/2014/02/03/mets-look-to-clear-up-ike-davis-situation-quickly/

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Lagares still seems in line for plenty of time

9:35	Comment From Ethan What’s a fair return for the Red Sox for Mike Carp if they decide to trade him?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: decent high-A pitching prospect

9:36	Comment From RotoLando Puig hitting leadoff? Is that crazy?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: What part of that would be crazy? Puig’s good. Good players should bat more. Leadoff hitters bat more.

9:36	Comment From STiVo Under the AL’s rules, can the Yankees DH for Brendan Ryan and allow their pitcher to hit? CC is a pretty good hitter.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: no 🙁

9:37	Comment From Art Vandelay If a player gets an invite to Spring Training, do they also have to be placed on the 40 man roster?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Nope, not unless they make the team. Everybody loads up on minor-league contracts with NRIs because there’s no real downside — they’re just tryouts

9:37	Comment From Guest Always thought “Clubhouse Confidential” was a weird title. Wouldn’t “Front Office Confidential” be more accurate?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I was just thinking about this last night. I don’t really understand what they were going for

9:38	Comment From Grack Zeinke don’t you think that Cruz is much better fit in cozier park? going to Seattle seems like a poor fit and could easily see him imploding there.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: That’s not really how park factors work but I do agree that Nelson Cruz is a poor fit in most places

9:38	Comment From Kris You know what would make placing a value on draft picks easier? Allowing them to be traded!

9:38	Comment From Guest Is a pitcher’s hitting included in the FG WAR leaderboards?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: It’s separate, but it’s available if you click on batters instead of pitchers

9:39	Comment From _David_ I was thinking we could better measure sharpness of contact by measuring the angle off the bat as well as where it hits the bat…Is this basically hitFX?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: HITf/x also has batted-ball velocity. It’s pretty great! Really you just need hit location and hangtime

9:40	Comment From ChrisFromBothell Do you have some crazy-obscure, deeply wonky football stat ready to go when you get asked the inevitable “how about them Seahawks” on Clubhouse Confidential in a little bit?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: they won the super bowl by 35 points

9:40

Comment From Evan
Could the A’s moves for Johnson and Gregerson be to keep players like Doolittle and Cook out of the closer role so their arbitration prices will be lower in the next few years? It seems likely the arb costs of “proven closers” will be astronomical after the Kimbrel case is settled.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: That’s not why they made those moves, but I’m certain it’s something they’ve thought about as a coincidental upside. It really could save them some millions of dollars

9:42	Comment From jaybooster What are your thoughts on the Jays being what they were supposed to be last year, and doing it in 2014. I feel after a full year of all the pieces playing together is like a very positive synergy for the team.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: They’re a contender that could really use a 2B and another SP. Probably the fourth-best team in the division right now but it’s tight and when the situation is that tight it doesn’t take a lot of luck to emerge as a winner

9:43

Comment From ChrisFromBothell
I expect that for all practical purposes the winter’s over and no really interesting deals will happen. What are the most significant and/or stunning offseason deals, over the past few years, that have happened 3 weeks or less from the start of spring training? (This might be an article idea rather than a good q.)

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Prince Fielder signed on 1/25

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Kyle Lohse signed at the end of March

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Vernon Wells got traded last March?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Jeremy Guthrie got traded for Jason Hammel/Matt Lindstrom in February 2012

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Usually gets pretty quiet before all the waiver moves at the end of ST but obviously this year there are an awful lot of players left

9:47	Comment From Guest you know what would be neat? how much WAR a scout has contributed to an organization based on his player evaluations. i know some of them are slam dunks (ARod out of highschool), but what about guys like Albert Pujols etc??? has anyone done anything like this?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Good luck assigning responsibility for player acquisitions! And then how do you separate scouting from player development? It’s a good idea that requires an awful lot more thought in order to do it correctly, and it would be almost impossible to execute

9:48	Comment From Guest Ever get the feeling Reds ownership is the guy at the dance that is trying to ask that pretty girl for a song, but keeps heading to the snack table to eat some pretzels…..

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’re trying to ask any pretty girls for a song

9:49	Comment From Steve Was the Pirates not offering Burnett a QO a huge mistake?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: If they genuinely couldn’t afford it, that would be one thing, but right now it doesn’t look so wise

9:49	Comment From Brad I saw Cameron on it last night. It was by phone and it had his picture. He looks like a curmudgeon. Is he?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Dave is one of the more positive people I know

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Just yesterday I talked to him about something kind of important and he lifted my spirits in an instant. He’s delightful!

9:50	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy Am I a terrible baseball fan for bemoaning a possible Red Sox reunion with Stephen Drew because it’d move Bogaerts off SS and screw my fantasy team maybe eventually? (As a redsox fan I do have to admit they are a better/deeper squad w/ Drew in the fold).

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say terrible baseball fan. Maybe uninteresting baseball fan

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: but there’s no such thing as a terrible sports fan. Be a fan however you like

9:51

Comment From A. Lane
If a pitcher has significant splits, K% and BB%, base empty versus men on base, should not that show up with a negative the LOB WAR? League average is for K% rate to decrease and BB% to increase from the stretch, but what about the guys with significant splits? Does it not become an issue if K and BB rates are stable across the different leverage categories?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: What if a pitcher changes his style with men on base, walking more and striking out less but limiting extra-base damage? Basically, what if a pitcher is Tom Glavine?

9:52	Comment From Guest Do you think the Padres make the playoffs?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:52	Comment From Guest Since AJ Burnett decided not to retire, are the Pirates in the running for his services?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: They’re a finalist, but rumor has it the Orioles are super highly interested

9:54	Comment From Greg What could Joey Votto have gotten on the open market this offseason had he not been extended?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Less. He signed when he was more of a power guy. Now he’s just a super good 30-year-old first baseman. He wouldn’t get a Robinson Cano commitment

9:55	Comment From Seff Jullivan Is Chris Davis an .850 OPS guy who got lucky? A 1.000 OPS guy? Or something in between?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Probably more like 130-140 wRC+ than 167

9:56	Comment From Average Baltimore Fan Why do the O’s hate their fans?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Ever met an average sports fan?

9:56	Comment From Colin Valencic (CLE) With Harpers, Trouts and Strasburgs quick journey to the majors have you seen a change in how farm systems are developing young, high picked players to try and get them to the majors quicker? any concerns with this?