Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/16/18

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05	Mike: Hello Jeff, have you contemplated mortality today?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:06	The Man With No Name: Still on the Wilmer Font hype train? What about Scott Alexander?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I still like Font. Not going to abandon that hope because of a bad day on March 6

9:08	Bort: Have you seen Carter Capps’s new pitching motion? It’s, um, interesting.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Look, I’ve never understood how Capps could pitch like how he’s pitched. I definitely don’t understand how he can pitch like how he pitches

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: If he can make it work, more power to him, but something doesn’t seem to add up

9:09	Bill Drobick: I have a couple of questions about drafting Catchers.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: If this is about fantasy baseball, I don’t think I’ve addressed this in a while — I don’t answer fantasy questions because I can’t answer fantasy questions because I don’t play fantasy baseball

9:09

Rays fan: I know we’re not supposed to put any stock into spring training, but is there a point where someone can look bad enough in it to concern you? Like what if batters are 12-for-23 against someone, and of the 30 total batters he’s faced over his three starts so far, he’s walked five of them and struck out none, and his ERA is almost 17? Is that a bad enough performance in spring training to concern you at all? Asking for a friend whose name rhymes with Fake Jaria

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, that is legitimately worrisome

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Spring training isn’t completely irrelevant. Extreme performances at either end should have an effect on season expectations

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Now, I think, if Faria comes out next time and looks sharp, then that’s that. My stance is that spring concerns can be quickly alleviated. These games, after all, are practice. But I saw Faria’s numbers just yesterday and I don’t like it one bit

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard to be that bad under any circumstances without something being off

9:11	RedsFan: Thoughts on Suarez extension and what it means for the Reds organization as a whole?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I think I’m going to write about this after I chat

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: I’m surprised by the length, and by the modest terms in the free-agent years. I get that Suarez isn’t a superstar, and he could be in line for regression, but this feels like at least a partial response to Suarez and his agent not wanting to deal with free agency, after what we’ve just seen

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Suarez was due to become an FA after 2020, and that would still be covered by the current CBA

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Say hello to Nick Senzel, middle infielder

9:14

TF Fredrik: I feel like there is a development paradox nowadays with how pitchers are protected coming thru the system. On one hand you know pitching is an unnatural phenomenon and every pitch seems to wear on muscles & ligaments. Hence you think you need to protect that elbow, shoulder etc. On the other hand, the best way for players to learn is to practice, push themselves, struggle, and experience pitching in games against real live teams. Where do you think best mix is on protecting pitchers and letting them learn by pitching?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think even teams have a good answer to this

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Beyond, like, avoiding obvious abuse. Teams seem to have agreed upon a general idea of gradually scaling up innings season after season

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Ultimately, you have to pitch in order to learn how to pitch. And I think what we’re seeing, and what we’re going to see, is teams promoting young pitchers more aggressively when they seem like they can help, because the younger a pitcher is when he reaches the majors, the fewer miles are already on his arm/shoulder

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Before, you might not have seen as many pitchers reach the majors while somewhat unpolished. But now those final stages of learning can take place in the bigs

9:17	Stevie Knicks: Ian Happ is having a pretty fantastic spring training. If he keeps this up and locks down the leadoff spot can he exceed the ZIPS projections?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: ZiPS projects a 107 wRC+. Happ as a rookie posted a 113 wRC+. He could absolutely beat his projection

9:18	TF Fredrik: Is controlling a pitchers effort something that can be taught? Is it something that teams already do? You and Ben were going over this with Syndergaard. If he could just live at 96-98 would that make a difference for his health? Or we just don’t know?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Intuitively it feels like it would be good for him, because pitchers can stay healthier if they back off their max velocity. Eno has written about guys who pitch close to the max, and who don’t. I think this is one of those things that comes with experience. You rarely hear about a rookie who knows how to mix up speeds. It’s one of the last things to develop

9:20	2-D: When a pitcher expresses a desire to pitch to contact more does that translate to “only with two outs, nobody on, and the bottom of the order up”?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: When pitchers talk about pitching to contact, what they mean is throwing more strikes, and wasting fewer pitches in the dirt

9:22

Jack: Less than two weeks from Opening Day and almost a week after Lynn and Arrieta finally signed, and Cobb still doesn’t have a job. At this point do you think the Rays should see if they can get Cobb to follow in the footsteps of Moustakas and re-sign with them on a one-year deal for much less money than the qualifying offer he rejected? Given what Lynn signed for, I’m not even sure if he’ll be able to get better than that from anyone. Tampa made it pretty clear they weren’t going to be in the market to bring him back because they felt good about their pitching depth and weren’t willing to compete with the kind of offers they thought would be out there for him, but now they’ve lost Odorizzi, Honeywell and De Leon, they say they’re gonna try having a four-man rotation, and it just doesn’t seem like a market has developed for Cobb. He might be in better shape if he can put together another healthy year and then re-enter the market without a QO next year

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: Very little of me believes the Rays would be willing to give Cobb like $10 million over one year. Not because of the front office, but because of ownership. The whole idea has been to somewhat slash payroll. So even though I think the Rays *could* use Cobb, now that they’re down two starters, I don’t see it happening

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: It’s also unclear whether Cobb would even want to return. Not that he’s in position to deny anyone or anything

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if the A’s might be a possibility to get him soon. They should still have some space after signing Lucroy, and it looks like they could be down Jharel Cotton for a long time

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: The projected opening-day payroll of $64.6 million is down from last year’s $81.7 million

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The A’s still receive revenue sharing, so they’d have to sacrifice their third-highest draft pick. That’s not worth nothing, but that shouldn’t be a deal-breaker

9:29	S: Which free agent who signed a one year deal will increase their value the most for next offseason?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Might be Lance Lynn, depending. The fun answer would be Tim Lincecum

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Lucroy are also two clear possibilities depending on how their athleticism fares

9:29	The Man With No Name: Who’s the Chris Devenski of 2018?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t we just do this?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: It’s Chris Devenski

9:30	Bennum: Hi Jeff, were you able to see if any of the themes you identified with Giolito were still present last night? Some of his offspeed stuff looked good but I saw no speed readings

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Let me take a quick look!

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Also, 0 walks and 4 strikeouts in 5.1 is promising by itself

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, still looks like the slightly lower arm slot

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Impossible to get any good read on secondary stuff with such a horrible camera angle

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Really looking forward to Giolito’s first couple starts so that I have some data to play with. Spring-training analysis is like regular-season analysis from 2008

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Wait, no, 2007. In 2008 there was PITCHf/x!

9:33	TF Fredrik: Where do you usually look to find health of players in spring training (I guess it would be same in regular season too)? I feel like I hear you mention roto world a lot.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Rotoworld is super useful. I read it every day

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: And if there’s anything unclear on a specific player then I’ll just search Google or Twitter

9:34	TooDamnTall: Article request – How would abolishing the draft and just letting everyone be free agents change baseball? How much more would it cost teams? How would that change the minor league development system and a whole slew of other stuff

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Smaller-budget teams would be ruined

9:34	Monopoly Mustache: How are the Brewers gong to address their logjam at 1b/OF?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I was expecting them to have done something by now

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: But, Broxton has options. Phillips has options. That takes care of part of it. I don’t know where Jesus Aguilar fits

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Could be poised for the rare late-spring trade of modest significance

9:36	Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: Could you please rank these teams in order of most likely to least likely to make the playoffs in your opinion? A’s, Rays, Pirates, Marlins

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: You just did it for me

9:37	Luis Urias: What is my ETA in MLB?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: The conservative answer is September, but I imagine Urias would be up well in advance of that if Galvis got injured or totally sucked

9:39	Joe V: Edwin Encarnacion is at about the same number of home rurns David Ortiz was at coming into his age 35 season (EE – 348, Ortiz – 349). It took Ortiz 5 more seasons averaging a little bit over 30 home runs a season to get to 500 career home runs. Can Encarnacion get there?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: He absolutely can, although I think the odds are a little stronger that he’ll fall short, just because of how old he already is

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Players like Ortiz are exceptional

9:40	Scott: The runner on 2B to start extra innings rule in the minors is awful. What are the chances it’s implemented in the majors, and how do we stop this from happening?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t expect it to happen in the majors

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Not, at least, anywhere in the foreseeable future

9:40	PieTraynee: If you squint hard enough, the Buccos could certainly pass as a wildcard team, right?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: For sure. The second wild card in the NL isn’t very good. The Pirates aren’t terrible. One tweak from Glasnow makes him a five-win pitcher by himself

9:41	Uncle Charlie: What even is an Ozzie Albies

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: An extraordinarily talented baseball player who is younger than many players who will be drafted in June

9:42	Travis: When can I pencil Acuna’s name down for the hall of fame?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: In pencil? Today. Pencils carry zero consequence

9:43	abelWingnut: who do you like more for the next three years: greg bird or matt olson?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Olson very slightly

9:43	Scott: Spring training seems too long. Any chance it gets cut down by a week or two in the next CBA?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure, but that would be nice, and many players would support it

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve never really considered what spring-training revenue might look like for a given ballclub

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Teams, obviously, would be disinclined to give up money. It’s the same reason owners oppose a shortened regular season

9:44	Desperate, confused Marlins fan: so much for seeing Cottons improved changeup

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: On the plus side, for every pitcher who goes down, another pitcher replaces him. We’re all closer to seeing Puk!

9:45	Mister Puppy : Is there anything better in life than waking up to a Jeff Sullivan chat

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: lord I hope so

9:45	Bill: Does Flaherty make the Opening Day Cardinals rotation?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, I don’t think so

9:46	larry: are there any free agents out there you’re surprised haven’t signed yet?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I expected Cobb to sign for the Lynn contract shortly after Lynn got the Lynn contract

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Meanwhile I have no idea what’s going to happen with Greg Holland

9:47	Ben: If I came back from 5 years in the future and told you the Cardinals have really missed one of Aledmys Diaz, Randall Grichuk, and Stephen Piscotty, which of those 3 would you guess went on to be star?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I guess Grichuk? He has the most star-ish skillset

9:48	B: What do you expect out of the first run of young Atlanta pitchers in the majors like Luiz Gohara, Max Fried & AJ Minter? Is there one young Braves starter you think will show flashes of great things to come?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Impossible not to be the most hyped about Gohara, just because of how hard he throws. I’ll also be watching to see if Newcomb ever sustains a strike-throwing ability for four or five starts in a row

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Minter is likely to be a dominant reliever for however long his arm holds up

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: We might need a Minter post. He’s nuts

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not saying AJ Minter is the new Craig Kimbrel, but it’s a frighteningly easy comparison to make

9:52	J. Peterman: Crazy to think Kevin Plawecki has a big season in store? Strong AAA year, solid finish in MLB, and strong spring.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: His season can be only so big while he’s part of a positional time-share. But, yeah, I can buy him as a fairly good hitter for a catcher, and that’s something he’s seldom been

9:55	what the puk?: did you see Puk’s velocity down yestereve? concerning or blip? also, why are A’s v Mariner ballgames such snoozefests?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll let Susan Slusser answer your question!

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.sfgate.com/athletics/article/A-s-A-J-Puk-hit-around-for-fi…

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: “Puk, who hadn’t allowed an earned run in his first three outings, was throwing 93-94 mph, according to two scouts in attendance, and he was mostly throwing two-seam fastballs, rather than his harder four-seamer. On the A’s telecast velocity readout, Puk’s fastball never topped 90 mph, however, causing some fans anxiety. “Tell fans to breathe,” one scout texted. “He’s OK.” Mariners starter Ariel Miranda’s velocity on the telecast was similarly lower than his usual readings, another indication the telecast’s velocity readings were incorrect.”

9:57	JV: Does Brandon Phillips play again in the MLB?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Feels weird to say no, but, I think the answer is no. He could get an NRI if he were willing to compete for a bench role, but he’s just not starter material

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t really hit, doesn’t play short. Not much here that teams are looking for

9:59	Reed: I’m an orioles fan – what do I have to be excited about between now and 2020?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Every morning you wake up alive

9:59	Scott: Do you see Bogaerts rebounding this year? Or are his plate discipline issues going to hold him back?