Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/30/18

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to delayed Friday baseball chat

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Podcasting before this chat is my new excuse

9:08	Charlie: When do the 2018 stats go up?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Should be up already. I was browsing a few of them earlier

9:09	Matty P: Cruz homerun off Kluber was an 88mph Cutter. This concern you or just first start of the year?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Barely off where Kluber usually is. Pitchers tend to open the season with lower velocities. Not the least bit concerned

9:09	Stuafoo: Thoughts on the whole Mariners opening day red carpet experience? Always feels kinda cheesy to me

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball leans into cheesy traditions. I like it. The Ottawa Senators have their own red-carpet thing they do before the opener. I’m sure these teams aren’t alone in doing so

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Celebrate the pageantry of opening day. It’s a good time

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: And a memorable experience for the players themselves, I’m certain

9:10	Charlie: I asked this on yesterday’s chat, but does Syndergaard have a BABIP problem?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: The Mets defense has a BABIP problem

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Syndergaard himself is fantastic. Maybe he’s not a weak-contact guy, I don’t know, but he’s certainly a no-contact guy

9:12	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Attention everyone: this is your last chance to get on the Blake Snell hype train before his season starts.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: chugga chugga chugga chugga choo chooooooooooooo

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-other-major-second-half-turnaround/

9:13	Kevin: What are your thoughts on Kapler’s decision to pull Nola after 5 1/3 and less than 70 pitches up 5 runs? Seems like analytics taken to the extreme.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I would’ve stuck with Nola a little bit longer, but not by that much. And pulling Nola didn’t blow the game. Morgan, Ramos, and Neris giving up six runs between the eighth and ninth blew the game

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: That’s it. The Phillies were up three runs and got to give the ball to good relievers to get six outs. Didn’t happen. Not Kapler’s fault

9:14	jimmy: Over/under 55.5 home runs for Stanton?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Over

9:15	tb.25: Holy Kershaw. Lucky to escape with only 1 earned run, with the whip he had.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: 68% strikes, 17 swings and misses. Kershaw was good

9:16	Panic!: Spring training – Kingery for MVP! After one game – Kingery sucks! Send him down!

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Mike Trout went 0-for-6!

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Matt Davidson hit three home runs!

9:16	Scott: How many games in a row would the Dodgers need to lose before they are no longer favorites in the NL West. 10-12?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: That sounds about right

9:17	Panic!: Davidson for MVP! DBack fans rue the trade!

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: As much as opening games like this are usually indicative of nothing, I do like that he topped his own Statcast exit-velocity records

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Getting up to 115 miles per hour is no joke

9:18	Kyler: The spitball is a fascinating pitch to me. What would happen if it were to be unbanned?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: More pitchers would spit on baseballs

9:18	CubFan: Given how poorly Ohtani threw in ST do you think he’ll perform more like a top rookie who struggles out of the chute……and thus be sent down to AAA to refine his command?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I think the odds are he sticks in the majors. Call it, I don’t know, 80/20, or 90/10. His stuff is good. He’s going to pitch like someone whose stuff is good

9:19	J. Peterman: Is Drew Steckenrider’s -3.10 FIP so far this season sustainable?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say this for him — he might be the most interesting pitcher on the Marlins

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Him or Barraclough

9:19	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Conditional on health for both, what odds would you give for Matt Duffy being more valuable than Evan Longoria this season?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: 40%

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: So many of the Rays are completely unfamiliar to the general fan base, but that doesn’t mean they’re bad

9:20	CarrotJuice: Mike Trout currently in last place on Fangraphs WAR leaderboard. Would you say it’s time for baseball fans to crack open each others skulls and feast on the goo inside?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t think of any better advice

9:22	Mr. Nor’easter: Two questions about Cardinals’ pitchers: What do you expect from Flaherty for the season? Will he hang on? And do you think the Cards want Reyes to return to the rotation, or stick to the bullpen?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: I think Flaherty will probably be up and down as the sixth starter. Perfectly adequate in that role. As for Reyes, I imagine he will both start and relieve, in sort of a hybrid role, but the need for him in the later innings has been reduced by the Holland signing. If Holland is good, and especially if Hicks is good, Reyes will see more of an opportunity in the rotation

9:23	Scott: What if Tim Anderson is good? He actually walked yesterday (along with the 2 bombs)!

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: If Tim Anderson is good, and if Matt Davidson is good, then I don’t even know what we’re doing here

9:24	HappyFunBall: I am looking forward to this year’s version of ThamesGraphs, now named DavidsonGraphs

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I do love a good breakout. Especially when they come with no warning

9:24	Zock Jr.: So the Red Sox bullpen will blow every lead, and Stanton will hit 324 homers. As a Sox fan, these are the things I’ve learned from Opening Day. Thoughts?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: At least one of those statements is likely to turn out incorrect

9:25	CubFan: How long does Rodney hold the closer gig?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: All season, with probably one spell where he struggles and gets his work as a mop-up man

9:27	Scott: Any concern about Kershaw’s FB velocity being down in the 91 range? Pedro Moura said that last opening days, he was around 93.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Not much concern, since his slider and curveball were fairly normal. But it’s not like velocity gets better as pitchers age. It would be natural for Kershaw to start slowing down

9:28	mcmadbat: hey Jeff. I made a google chrome extension that notifies you when a player you’re tracking is up to bat or pitching. This lets you efficiently switch games and only watch players you’re interested in.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.theringer.com/2016/8/29/16041884/mlb-tv-game-changer-redzo…

9:29	Chris: Should I trade Mookie, Schoop, and Cody Allen for Trout?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Those players are all on different teams

9:29	Dan: Your Mets pick is looking good 🙂

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: The Mets will be good until or unless their pitchers start to break. So is the tightrope they walk

9:31

Jack: So, Adeiny Hechavarria just hit .326 with a .884 OPS in spring training (and went 2-for-4 yesterday). Normally I’d dismiss something like this as meaningless small sample noise in spring training, and maybe I still should, but I’m kind of intrigued because of the way he finished last season. Are you thinking at all yet that he may have made a real, Jean Segura-like offensive improvement?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s good for something like a 90 wRC+. But then, last year, his top five exit velocities all came in August or September. I don’t really buy him as a power source, but I think, with his defense, he can be a fine player

9:33	Scott: Is it possible to come up with a worse home run call than Sterling’s Stanton call? I think even with years of brainstorming, it would still be the worst.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: That’s precisely what makes it so magical

9:34	Big Tuna: Let’s overreact after one day: is Rodney or Parker more likely to lose the closer gig?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Parker

9:34	KilleBrews: I am not seeing 2018 stats…

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y…

9:34	Dan: I’m a fan of [team/player]. Can I panic based on yesterday?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: The emotions around opening day are part of the fun of opening day. Feel however you want! Baseball will settle into its routine soon enough. For now, think of it as emotional stretching

9:36	Tim: How many players would the Braves be willing to trade Acuna for? I read Jonah Keri’s trade rankings article and saw he put Acuna 24th and Archer 25th. So if the Rays called the Braves and offered Archer for Acuna straight up, do you think Atlanta would really have something to think about?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Archer is incredibly valuable. Because of where the Braves are, I don’t think they’d trade seven years of a position player for four years of a quality starter, but a team in a more competitive position might

9:37	Big Tuna: Should the Red Sox be worried about their pen?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Last year they didn’t even really have Carson Smith or Tyler Thornburg and they still finished No. 1 in the majors in bullpen WPA

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: On paper, their bullpen is fine. In reality, bullpens are obnoxious

9:39	capconstrained: I’ve noticed depth charts having some sizeable differences w/ the other projections systems — Bryan Mitchell comes to mind. What’s different about depth charts?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Looks pretty normal to me https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11479&position=P

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: But I think the systems will always have a little bit of trouble accounting for guys switching roles, SP <–> RP

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Relievers switching to the rotation probably get overrated, and starters switching to the bullpen probably get underrated

9:41	Big Tuna: Strickland made some real changes to his pitch mix in spring and looked good. Is this the year he actually turns into a good closer?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Career ERA- of 66 and FIP- of 80. He’s already been a good reliever. I doubt he’s becoming an elite one, but, you know, relievers

9:41	Aaron: I know it’s only one start, but is Kershaw’s velocity drop something to be worried about?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Not yet

9:41	Dan: Thinking about hiking this spring/summer. Any tips? Haven’t really hiked before

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: See if you like it first, before you try to do anything extreme. Try to find trails that offer good views with limited effort. Or, if you just want to get out there, try to research trail systems in the area that don’t get a whole lot of visitors. The feeling of being all by yourself in the wilderness is so much better than walking in a line

9:43	Justin: King Felix looked good last night. Chances in your mind of him consistently returning to an xFIP of 3.50 or less, or a WAR of 4+?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Hard to see him ever being a 4+ WAR pitcher anymore. If for no other reason than they probably won’t let him accumulate the innings. I’m looking forward to seeing where he’s at after five or ten starts, but I’m just hoping he’s a No. 3, not a No. 1

9:44	KimByung Slice: What time do you usually podcast with Ben? So

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the day, but on Fridays, 11am ET

9:46	Nat: Opinion of the Carlos Martinez cutter yesterday? Looked like he through about 5 of them.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I think I see two balls and two strikes. No opinion yet — he clearly didn’t trust it, and he clearly wasn’t on top of his game in the first place. It’ll start to mean something to me if his cutter rate climbs to 10% or so

9:48	RK: Did you utilize the mlb.tv split screen in the past? How annoying that they auto renew while taking features away.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.reddit.com/r/mlb/comments/7xcnze/mlbtv_quad_screensplit_sc…

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Really a big step backward

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t believe you can’t watch multiple games anymore. It’s 2018

9:49	tb.25: True or false: the grandiose show of opening day trumps the best lineup to win (see Belt – 3 for 50 and Crawford – 5 or 40 or so, in lineup versus Kershaw)

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I like the symbolism of opening day, and if I were a manager I probably wouldn’t worry so much about optimizing in Game 1. But I’m also not going to yell at Gabe Kapler because he sat Odubel Herrera

9:50	Ron Swanson’s Mustache: Was Kapler’s decision to pull Nola in the 6th after 68 pitches an early favorite to be the dumbest decision of this whole season?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Good lord no

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think people are just looking for a reason to hate Gabe Kapler

9:51	Taylor: Nick Markakis hit a walk off home run yesterday. It was the first of his career. He also has over 2000 hits. Surprising it took him so long to get one?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Alternate fun fact: the all-time leader in walk-off home runs is Jim Thome, with 13

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Now I want to do two minutes of quick research. Hold on!

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: All right, sorry about that

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: If I’ve done this all correct, then, at least in the regular season, Norm Cash never hit a walk-off home run

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Hit 377 home runs overall

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Jose Bautista hasn’t hit a walk-off home run. 331 total home runs

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Danny Tartabull never hit a walk-off home run. 262 total home runs

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I hope that was worth it

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Surprised about Bautista. He has two walk-off singles, one walk-off walk, and two walk-off sacrifice flies

9:59	Billy : Is hitter swinging strike % positively correlated with height? Can’t think of the last 6’6 player who was able to make as much contact as Jose Martinez

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Swinging-strike rate is positively correlated with power, and power is positively correlated with height