Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/9/18

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:04	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:05	Dylan: I know it’s early and spring training but this is the best you could hope for out of Dan Vogelbach, right? How encouraged can we be?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: .636 OBP, with as many home runs as strikeouts!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Ultimately, the ceiling is low — Vogelbach will never be valued for his athleticism. We’ve seen how even a good version of this player is viewed in the free-agent market. But he should be an option if and when Ryon Healy disappoints his new employer

9:06	TF Fredrik: Are you a fan of parity or would you rather MLB have a pure free market and let anything go a la European soccer? Youth academies, no cap, no revenue sharing, no draft etc.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I like parity, but I’ve also never followed a sport that doesn’t try to have it. So even the basic idea of European soccer rules is foreign to me

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine I would prefer the MLB way anyhow

9:08	Adenolith: Zimmerman’s note that the pitch readings from Salt River Fields might be running high has me concerned about Greinke’s velocity dip. Is it too early to start worrying?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: It’s seldom too early to worry about a velocity dip, especially given that Greinke has already started losing some of his miles, but it feels like Greinke has had velocity questions like eight springs in a row

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: He’s pretty much always recovered. And I think, when Greinke was signed, he was viewed as someone who could age gracefully even with a slower fastball, because the command and movement are there

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: If Greinke is throwing 85, that’s not good, but I bet he’ll get up to the 89-91 range by June

9:11	Dontrelle Willis: Why do contracts ever include mutual options if they’re never actually exercised?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Sam Miller, from last year http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18519226/show-mind-games-mutual-opt…

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: He found that, over two decades examined, just four of 100 mutual options were mutually exercised

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Part of the function, I think, is that mutual options tend to come with a seven-figure buyout, so that pushes some of the cost into the future for the team

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: And mutual options also serve to inflate the terms. In the Mike Moustakas case, he signed for one year and $6.5 million, but it’s easy to see there’s an existing option that would make it an eight-figure deal. It won’t *actually* be an eight-figure deal, but it just looks better, which is psychologically appealing

9:15	Nate: What is Moustakas’ best case scenario for his contract next winter?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, best case best case, he’s an MVP this season and he signs for a fortune. But he should probably think about something similar to the Jay Bruce terms

9:17	TF Fredrik: Is identifying talent or developing talent more important. If you had to pick one, obviously you would love to do both well.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to say developing talent. Across teams, I don’t think there’s all that much difference in talent identification anymore

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: You can tell when someone has power, or a strong right arm. Even if you’re 10% worse at spotting talented young baseball players, you can weaponize the farm system if you’re 20% better at making decent players good

9:19	Dingers!: If Kershaw was exactly the pitcher he is now except every time he threw to a base he had to use Lester’s bounce pass, how much worse would he be?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw has averaged about 30 assists per 200 innings. How many of those are close enough that a bounce pass would allow the runner to reach? Half?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: So you’re turning 15 outs into 15 baserunners. To say nothing of Kershaw becoming a far inferior pick-off threat. Total estimated cost: roughly two wins

9:21

manse gray: mlb should not rely on television feeds for instant replay. at a cost shared by owners and players (who have a great interest in true representations of any given game event) all parks should be outfitted with cameras and sensors appropriately located for precise mapping of each park to capture all game events. additionally, the data gathered would produce truer representations than data extrapolated using video recorded from static television camera locations. is the cost worth it? with all the lip service paid to ‘integrity,’ i say ‘yes.’

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine we’re going to see a gradual improvement across the league in instant-replay technology

9:22	Bork: Sooo is there going to be a spike in free agents accepting QO’s next year?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Every case is different, and teams might learn from this market and extend fewer qualifying offers in the first place. But I do think the QO will become more appealing, just because you can’t get it twice

9:24	Jack: Are you at the point where you’re starting to believe there will be some big name free agents who don’t have a team by Opening Day? Do you think any of Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn are regretting not taking the qualifying offer the way Moustakas definitely is?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a different situation, I think, for pitchers. Nearly every team could end up with an opening in the rotation. Look at the Rays, who have already lost two would-be starters to Tommy John surgery. It was going to be much harder for Moustakas to find a new 3B opening

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I think the pitchers will still find multi-year contracts, and I think they’re coming soon, as we’re approaching the point where signing players won’t be able to get up to speed in time for opening day

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Gets tougher with, say, Jonathan Lucroy. But he didn’t have a good season

9:27	Raindog: Pretty ballsy by KC: yes we offered you 17.6M before, but now we’re gonna cut our offer to you by 63%.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Business is cold

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Cold and unfeeling

9:27	Spring’s Sprung?: Hey Jeff! Any pitchers stand out to you so far in spring as potential breakout guys? Last year we saw Morton and Jordan Montgomery. Anyone like that this year?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe now Wade Miley isn’t terrible

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve been keeping a very close eye on Tyler Glasnow. He’s offering the fascinating blend of a much-improved K/BB and horrible results

9:28	Dylan: I want the world to know that I built the Brandon Nimmo bandwagon, and that there is plenty of room

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Less room every hour

9:29

Nick: Lots has been made of the Braves’ young minor league arms — and obviously, for good reason. What do you think becomes of Julio Teheran when those arms start graduating to the majors? Do the Braves deal him to plug other holes (or replenish the farm, for whatever his value is), or do they keep him as a veteran mid-rotation guy?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Braves can make a plan here until some of those pitchers actually emerge as good major-league options

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: To this point, they really haven’t

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Teheran, also, needs to figure out what he is. He’s been too volatile to treat as tremendously valuable

9:30	Ross: Am I the only one who’s kind of come around on the Diamondbacks unis? Their all-silver road ones are still terrible, but their home whites and red alternates with the snake scales are good

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much every uniform change is like a website redesign. Everyone hates it immediately and gets used to it in a week and a half

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Remember how much fun people made of the Marlins’ rebranding? The Marlins’ uniforms are fantastic!

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Which isn’t to say that teams don’t sometimes design bad uniforms. But I wouldn’t pay attention to the public’s short-term response

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: (ever, about anything)

9:32	Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Do you see any lingering injury issues with Josh Donaldson this year?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I’m less worried about him than I am of most other 32-year-olds in the league

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Track record of extreme durability

9:33	Hans Gruber: Do you see Peacock being used in a Devinski-type role to start the season?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Going to guess that role will go to Devenski

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: But the Astros might have like three Devenskis at once

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: They have so much pitching

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Peacock will throw multiple innings sometimes, so that the Astros can keep him stretched out as a starter substitute

9:34	Ross: Do you think part of the reason Bautista has had so much trouble in free agency these last two years is that teams just don’t like him? I mean, last year Duquette did call him a villain and said they weren’t interested in signing him because their fans hated him

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Problem a year ago was that Bautista was greatly diminished. Problem this year is that Bautista in 2017 was bad

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Teams are cold about this stuff. Everyone knows that Bautista has been a legend, but nobody wants to pay him for it

9:35	Raindog: Every remaining free agent is gonna take a 1 year deal, aren’t they? And not even at a good salary.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I’d personally like to see Jake Arrieta sign for a year and like $30 million or something

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Arrieta could have a lot to gain if he goes out there and rediscovers like 50% of his control

9:36

Stevil: Is there a place for Wimer Font on the Dodgers roster? It appears that he is out of options, and with Seattle likely not having Ramirez for the first couple of weeks or so to start the season and Zych being shut down the other day with Servais stating that he’s nowhere near ready, wouldn’t Font make sense for the Mariners? Surely they could package a couple of relief prospects to acquire him.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Lots of teams have been trying to trade for Font. The Dodgers like him and will keep him as a long man so that he can be available for when their starters visit the DL

9:37	Bart: What do you see Dahl doing this year with the Cargo resigning?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Playing to be available when an opening emerges in June or July

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: The only actual good player out there is Blackmon

9:38	TF Fredrik: Do the top end starters have more value in this current run scoring environment?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: In theory, everyone’s affected the same

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I think the top-end starters have more value because they’re the starters who will actually be used in the playoffs

9:39	Sircharles: I really like K%-BB% as a good way to judge a SP, what do you think is the best way to project this for 2018 since you wont know what the PAs are for a SP?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure K/9 – BB/9 gets you almost all the way there

9:40	CarNo: How many at bats does McMahon lose with the Cargo signing?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: A fair amount, assuming Ian Desmond now sees more time at first base. But not that many in the end if Desmond continues to struggle

9:41	Big Joe Mufferaw: Hi Jeff, Have you ever done some hiking/exploring in Canada? If so, where, if not, WHY THE HECK NOT?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Not nearly enough because there’s already so much in Oregon, Washington, and northern California

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I’m kind of a completionist in this way, and I want to know every single nook and cranny of the state that I live in

9:43	Billy Beane: Jeff, before Sheryl’s comments, I had never considered the idea of a woman plying pro baseball as a catcher. I had always assumed 2b, LOOGY, or a knuckleballer. You have any thoughts on the matter? (Besides to never read the comments)

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: The Jeff Mathis path is available, if you have a catcher who’s also experienced enough to basically be a pitcher whisperer. Now, developing that experience and trust would be very difficult, but it’s a path

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: It should be noted that good pitch-framing requires a tremendous amount of wrist and forearm strength. That would be another hurdle

9:44	Fred Merkle: Is Snell’s breakout coming?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: One could argue it already happened in last season’s final two or three months

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-other-major-second-half-turnaround/

9:45	Jarrett: Tim Anderson, yay or nay? Seems like the strike zone control is bad

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Do not like

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Ground balls, 3% walks, and 27% strikeouts. Come on

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Several different ways for Anderson to improve. Which, in one sense, is encouraging

9:47	Montu: Any thoughts on whether or not Lewis Brinson Makes the OD Roster for the Marlins?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: Easy answer is no, for the usual reasons. They could say they want him to get more reps, and they want to give a chance to Scott Van Slyke or whatever. But Brinson would be up quick. And playing him on opening day would be a small sign of good faith to whichever fans are still paying attention

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: It would be nice to see the Marlins make at least one small decision for a reason other than money. But the service-time stuff, in the end, tends to win

9:49	ARC: Thanks for chatting Jeff! Will anyone be taking over Dave’s annuals like the trade value series or the bargains and landmines?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Yes!

9:49

PTBNL: When evaluating relief appearances, is the quality of the opposing hitters accounting for? I.e. it’s a lot easier to retire the Padre’s 7-8-9 hitters than the Cubs 2-3-4 hitters. Seems like especially for relievers who may only throw one inning, this would be an important variable to account for when trying to evaluate pitching performance.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: For individual games, it’s relevant. For entire seasons, things tend to mostly even out. There are always exceptions, but most of the differences in opposition quality are negligible

9:50	mike sirotka: any chance we see vlad jr in the big leagues later this year?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:51	Marcelino pan y vino: Should the stros just start Marwin at 1B until YG is back and give Fisher a chance to play everyday in LF?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: With how much Marwin is going to move around, Fisher will still get his opportunities. Although, with Tucker on the fast track, Fisher is beginning to feel like inevitable trade bait

9:51	Raindog: Moustakas is projected for 2.8 WAR. Let me do some math here… $6.5M / 2.8 = $2.3M / WAR. When was the last time that was the price?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Jarrod Dyson?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: But I think it’s fair to question whether the projections are appropriately handling Moustakas’ defense and baserunning, which just took meaningful steps backward

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Personally, I wouldn’t buy him as a 2.8-win player

9:53	Deke: How differently would the offseason have gone if Ohtani had gone to Texas or Seattle? Would the Angels have worried about all their other pieces? Would either other team have gone all-in with signings?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Rangers or Mariners ever had all that much money to spend. Which is a big part of why Ohtani appealed to them so much in the first place. Their offseasons probably would’ve gone similar. The Angels’ would’ve been fascinating

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Angels still get Cozart and Kinsler, etc. Maybe they still try to be an 83-win baseball team. But we would’ve read more about Mike Trout trade rumors, even if they weren’t based in much truth

9:55	Desperate, confused Marlins fan: So how happy are the Rockies on the 90 million dollar discount they got on Cargo?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: They probably chuckle among themselves, and then Ian Desmond knocks on the door because he has a question about something

9:57	Max: Thoughts on the Rockies bringing CarGo back?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: No harm. Can’t go wrong at this price, and the outfield before was not good

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: No reason to just completely dismiss Gonzalez’s first 4.5 months of 2017, but there’s enough there to think he could have a real bounceback

9:57	Kenon: Still consider Daniel Norris a potential top of the rotation guy?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:59	Ethan: I don’t understdand why no one wants Neil Walker. Do you understand why no one wants Neil Walker? Why does no one want Neil Walker?