Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/11/16

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to live Friday baseball chat

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Brought to you this time from a friend’s house where I’m observing someone while he recovers from surgery. Hopefully he doesn’t clot while I’m talking about Pedro Alvarez or something

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: If I disappear for a little while it’s probably because of a medical emergency!

9:08	Tony G.: Hey Jeff. Hope all is well. Who do you expect to be the Astros’ Opening Day 1B?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Singleton, still. I don’t expect that to last more than a month or two

9:08	Bork: If Jered Weaver threw a fastball at you, what type of sandwich would you make yourself and enjoy while you waited for it?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Meatball. I’d start by making the meatballs

9:08	Turd Ferguson: I have 1st pick in my minor league draft (5×5 standard AL-only). Who do I take? AJ Reed or Max Kepler?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I pretty much never answer these questions but, Reed. Reed is super

9:10	Josh: How much time and when do you think we will see of Max Kepler on the Twins this year?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: Given that he still has just a year of experience at Double-A he’s still some months off, and the Twins are going to give every opportunity to Buxton and Sano. But I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Kepler were the starter in left field in the second half. He doesn’t have a lot in front of him

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, the Twins do have a number of options to sift through, and they aren’t terrible. But there’s no one currently outstanding slotted to play left, and there’s also no guarantee Buxton will hold his own, which could open another door. I think the Twins will be close enough that they’ll make heavy use of Kepler if they think he can push them toward the playoffs

9:13	EK65: How on earth did you wind up as an Ottawa Senators fan?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: In 1992 or whenever, I woke up one morning and decided I like sports. I chose Seattle teams to like because I had and have an uncle there. Seattle doesn’t have a hockey team, so I looked at the bottom of the NHL standings and saw Ottawa and I felt bad for them

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I continue to feel bad for them, but now I also feel bad for me

9:15	George is Curious: Any American League pitchers you like that are currently flying under the radar?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a master list or anything, but one name right off the top of my head is Jesse Hahn, who I just wrote about

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve been encouraged by James Paxton’s weight loss and focus on higher fastballs. Could finally be his breakthrough season

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Erik Johnson isn’t great but I think people forgot about him, and he had a huge bounceback in 2015

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: And god only knows what to make of Rich Hill but he’s fascinating

9:18	The Average Sports Fan: What do you think will be the biggest issue in the next CBA?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not a CBA expert but I have to think free-agent compensation

9:18	Cargo-5: lot of young SP with potential. Choose the best 3 for 2016: Ventura, Walker, Rodon, C.Martinez and Iglesias

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Martinez, Walker, Rodon

9:20	Raindog: Trumbo at 1B / Davis in RF almost certainly a better defensive alignment than vice versa, right? Too much risk for Davis? You only have to do it against righties, since Alvarez will sit vs lefties…

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Orioles are deferring here because of Trumbo’s experience. It’s just easier to tell Trumbo to go to the outfield while Davis stays where he’s familiar. Davis is the big investment so he’ll be jerked around less. Trumbo will bounce between slots and sit every so often

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Optimally maybe Davis is the better outfielder, but any difference there is probably slim.

9:22	PS: The Red Sox rotation is overrated.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Not by this guy

9:22	daneyko: Joe Ross and Steven Matz could be very close to the top 25 at the end of the season ?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I’m particularly intrigued by Ross working on a splitter. The changeup hasn’t worked for him and I love this as a potential third option

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Not enough attention on Joe Ross. Joe Ross!

9:25	PS: What are your expectations for Luis Severino this year?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Kind of the usual. Decent amount of strikes, he’ll be good against righties, I think he’ll be less good against lefties, and he won’t throw 200 innings

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I’m still a little unconvinced by his changeup — it might have too much two-seam movement for a four-seam-fastball pitcher

9:28	PS: Would it make sense for the Cardinals to try and acquire Didi Gregorius? What would they have to give up?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Yankees aren’t going to do that, and the Cardinals don’t need to do that

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’m on board with a few months of Aledmys Diaz

9:32

j6takish: Jeff, help me find a MLB equivalent to myself. In high school, I easily hit above 300 every year and had a good eye with a good line drive stroke but I had absolutely no power. I don’t think I ever hit a ball higher than shoulder height. I also had absolutely no defensive instincts, I seriously had no idea where the ball was going when hit in my direction and I was slow as shit, it was borderline amazing in hindsight. It seems like an odd skillset

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Congratulations! You were Lenny Harris

9:33	Justin: Loved the baseball dorks article. However, as a baserunning dork, I guess I’ll just show myself out.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I should’ve tried to include more categories. Can’t leave out the niche-interest groups

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: But I never would’ve imagined there were baserunning dorks. That’s awesome!

9:34	Carlos Martinez: My shoulder will be a problem for me this season ? 180,5 IP +/-

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll take the under

9:34	Jaack: The one thing I miss about CoverItLive is the lack of content jokes.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: This is a worthy substitute

9:34	NutButters: Top AL Bullpens top to bottom for sustained impact, including swingmen – BOS, NYY, KC ?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I love Baltimore’s bullpen, and I think I also love Texas’ bullpen

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: It wouldn’t surprise me too much of the Orioles and Rangers wound up with the top AL bullpen WPAs

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I see where the Rangers are ranked in our depth charts but I think that undersells them

9:36	Andrew: Hi Jeff! I throw 82mph as a lefty, how much do you think the angels will sign me for?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Probably important to recognize that the Angels didn’t sign Jered Weaver when he was throwing like this

9:37	mtsw: Is there a Ethier-to-the-Orioles trade that would make sense?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Not anymore, I don’t think

9:38	Jon Snow: Think Sam Dyson can overtake Shawn Tolleson for the closer job?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to guess they prefer having Dyson available to try to work out of jams

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Tolleson is better suited to enter with a clean slate

9:39	2-D: Who do you think is closing for the Mariners at the All-Star break?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Benoit

9:39	The Hamburglar: Is Mt. St. Helens National Park worth visiting?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: God yes

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I’m biased because I’ve hiked and camped up and all around the mountain, but it’s so fantastic. No other place like it in the country. The scale of it will blow your mind. Go on a nice day. If possible, go on a few nice days

9:42	Guest: What is your secret favorite band or song no one knows about?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: have recently gotten into Monochromie thanks to Reel Rock 10

9:44	mtsw: More likely: Pedro Alvarez is a 2+ WAR player or 2) Pedro Alvarez is DFAed before the trade deadline?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Alvarez is going to hit. Now, it’s not very easy to be a two-win DH, but I think that’s the more likely course of the two

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: If Alvarez can get a little luck and manage a 130 wRC+, then there you go, provided he doesn’t run the bases like Kendrys Morales

9:46	Jells: When does Trea Turner take over as Starting SS?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: June

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: The answer is usually June

9:47	Erik: Given 5 players with 45-grade tools across the board except for one 80-grade tool, how would you rank the 5 classic tools in terms of total projected career value?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: My guess, in order from most to least valuable: power, average, speed, fielding, arm

9:48	Ben: Beltre has a good chance to pass Griffey this year in fWAR. Great 30s are great.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Griffey: 77.7. Beltre: 74.9!

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: This is where the magic is: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=639,327

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Look at that second graph

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: At age 30, Griffey was up by more than 32 wins

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Gap now is less than three

9:51	Brett W: Who is the best outfielder at taking away home runs? Is this a measureable skill, or do park factors and lack of consistent opportunities make it too hard to measure?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Super hard to measure. It’s mostly about opportunities and wall height. Players have no control over those things. Kiermaier, Trout, and Gomez have historically been awesome but there’s so little data

9:53	Wade: I have a question about Rex Brothers. Does he have to clear waivers or is he a FA now?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Released. He’s a free agent

9:56	Jake M: Do you see it more likely that Fulmer end up a fixture in the White Sox rotation or in the back of their bullpen because of his delivery?