Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/18/14

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s live sports chat

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Coming to you fresh from not Arizona anymore

9:06	Comment From Anthony Rendon It seems like every other commentator and fantasy expert is bullish on me. Why? What’s my downside?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: People are obsessed with young players and you are a talented young player

9:06	Comment From Guest Thoughts on Taylor Jordan winning 5th starter spot and Ross Detwiler to the bullpen?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Jordan is probably a little better, Detwiler has big-league relief experience, and these decisions are reversible if subsequent performance demands it

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: What this really means is that Jordan will get the first opportunity, but a few bad starts in a row means it’s back to Detwiler. Or someone else could suck or get hurt

9:08	Comment From Brad Miller As of the first regular season game for the Mariners, am I leading off or batting 9th?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I’m thinking leadoff

9:09	Comment From Green Beer Puke Remorse better for Detroit: Drew or Rollins? Assuming the Phils would just be happy to unload Jimmy

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Drew and Rollins project very similarly, and Drew comes at a draft-pick cost, so I’d lean toward Rollins provided the Phillies didn’t charge very much

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Rollins would probably end up costing money for 2015, but, the same probably goes for Drew. I’m not convinced the Tigers need to go in either direction

9:11	Comment From Zachary I’ve heard a Mt. Rainier eruption could potentially cause huge devastation because of its proximity to so many people. Was I fed a fear-mongering sensationalist statement, or is there genuine concern?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: A significant eruption could wipe a number of smaller communities off the map. An all-time eruption could reach as far as the lower borders of Seattle. It’s a dangerous volcano, although there’s nothing going on at the moment and there’s no indication of a massive blast in the imminent future

9:12	Comment From Eminor3rd It’s PIZZA TIME, Jeff! PIZZA TIME!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It will be at lunch!

9:12	Comment From CMR Did you see the close-up drone video of a volcano erupting? Pretty cool!

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-shWVW1UBc&feature=youtu.be

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: That should do it for volcanoes today

9:13	Comment From Harry Next MLB player to be traded?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Always going to pick Nick Franklin until it finally happens

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: He would at least be the next MLB player of significance to be traded

9:15	Comment From Pennsy Are Detwiler’s numbers the second and third time through the order so bad that the Nats really do get more value from him out of the bullpen?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Not convinced it’s about Detwiler in the bullpen — I think it’s just about the Nationals liking Jordan in the rotation more, for the time being

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: If Jordan doesn’t learn how to punch out a lefty, then we could see a switch before too long

9:17	Comment From Jazzy Jim What are the Red Sox going to do in CF?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Bradley, with Sizemore chipping in heavily from all around the outfield

9:17	Comment From Pat Davidson Hey Jeff. Thanks for doing the chat. When do you expect Matt Davidson to play his first regular season game for the White Sox?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: early May

9:18	Comment From Charlie How was Cubs Park?

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: Beautiful. Elements of Wrigley South, so I don’t know why they didn’t put ivy on the walls. Parking situation was a nightmare but that’s just what Arizona is — a big hot shitty parking lot. I have a biased opinion because we had our own FanGraphs area on a deck in the shade. At one point between innings the scoreboard aired a video with Len Kasper explaining the concept of replacement value

9:20	Comment From Kris Did you see a team bought a supercomputer (http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2014/03/supercomputers)? Usually used for big data processing (PayPal has one). They want to remain anonymous. Who do you think it is and what do you think they could use it for?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously I have no idea who it is — could be literally any of the teams — but this sort of processor could come in handy a year from now when the MLBAM system might be generating unheard of amounts of player and game information

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: “Instead, a team can use a supercomputer to process data in time to affect decisions during play, explains Mr Ungaro.”

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the supercomputer will be replacing some team’s manager in the dugout!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Probably less likely to be accused of player bias.

9:25	Comment From Ryan How do you feel about Drew Hutchinson? Apparently he is up to 95 mph and fully recovered from TJ? Inning limit?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: I like him enough, if he’s healthy and 100% — he’s fine toward the back of a rotation and he’s demonstrated that he’s able to pitch against both lefties and righties. I think he’s a big reason why the Jays didn’t end up landing a big-time starter. At the start of the offseason, they had more of a need than it looks like they do now, just because of development from internal candidates

9:27	Comment From GSon Who wants Aaron Harang as their fifth starter?. and what can the Indians hope to get in return?. Is a Competitive Balance Lottery Pick too much?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Literally anything would be too much

9:28	Comment From RetireNutting What’s a Jose Tabata + Vin Mazzarro package net, if anything?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Salary relief

9:29	Comment From Andrew What would the ideal yet reasonable return for Nick Franklin look like for Seattle?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Second-tier big-league starter or second-tier big-league outfielder. Young. Sort of a SP or OF Nick Franklin equivalent

9:30	Comment From Glenn Jeff, can you give me your take on Mr.Heyward’s “potential” bounce back for this season.Thx.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: 2012: 121 wRC+ 2013: 120 wRC+

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I like that he trimmed his strikeouts. There’s an MVP somewhere in there, and while I don’t think we’re going to see that in 2014, I think he’s a pretty good bet to boost that wRC+ another ten points or so

9:31	Comment From Charlie Are the A’s screwed?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Not yet, not if Kazmir and Griffin are all right. Griffin’s already slated to begin the year on the DL but if he’s only out, say, a month, they have the depth to cover

9:31	Comment From Chris Are you bullish on Roenis Elias?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Had literally never heard of him before a few weeks ago. Haven’t seen him. I figure he tops out as a No. 4/5 and he doesn’t get me excited. If he does make the rotation, which he won’t, he’d be back in the minors within a few starts when the other guys are healthy

9:32	Comment From Conrad It sure seems like hanging on to Nick Franklin makes more sense for the Ms as the days go by….

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: That would make very little sense! He’ll get moved. Teams just need to get their scouting finished first

9:33	Comment From GSon Do the nats use Detweiller as trade bait?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: They already have

9:34	Comment From _David_ Say there was one surgeon who did all the elbow surgeries, and everyone kept going to him because he had the experience…what if he were actually terrible and what we know about TJ recovery rate was solely based on his ineptitude?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Then that would be interesting since the data shows that TJ recovery rate is really remarkably high!

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: But right now, obviously, it looks like there’s an outbreak of contagious elbow disease

9:35	Comment From Pennsy How important is the ballpark experience at a baseball game versus the venue experience at pretty much anything else? Isn’t it kind of particular to the sport?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably more important in baseball, since baseball has so much consistent downtime. Like, between every pitch, you have 20-30 seconds to look around and feel where you are

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Other performances will have stretches of downtime — intermissions — but that’s just when you go to the bathroom or buy another beer. If you’re at, say, a show, then the whole time outside of the intermission you’re just staring at the stage

9:38	Comment From bob Beachy is getting a second opinion after seeing Dr. Andrews. I’m optimistic.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: This is the dumbest spring ever

9:38	Comment From Slack Schpeinke how soon do you see Polanco in Pitts OF ?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: mid-May – mid-June. He’s super close but the Pirates have to think about future money

9:39	Comment From Kris Are service time concerns getting overblown now? Archie bradley might not start the year with the team and sounds like the Braves are gonna roll with Freddy Garcia over JR Graham?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Graham and Bradley have a combined 38 starts in Double-A and zero starts in Triple-A

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: If the Diamondbacks wait to start Bradley for a few weeks, that’ll mean just a small handful of starts. So that would cost them pretty much nothing, even if you assume Bradley is superior to the guy who’ll make the roster out of the gate. There’s just little to be gained by promoting a young player right away, and a whole lot to be gained by delaying said promotion for a short while

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: We’re talking about a whole extra year of team control, versus 2-3 starts

9:41	Comment From DB I am a worrier. Will Jose Abreu’s time be affected by Dunn and Konerko or are they non-issues? Also, are the sore ankles a big deal?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Abreu is the priority. The White Sox aren’t stupid

9:41	Comment From Julian Is it really just coincidence all of these pitchers are getting hurt around the same time or does something really need to change in the way teams manage pitcher’s innings, their routines, etc?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: This is a freak spring

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: But every team is also trying to learn more and more about keeping pitchers healthy. That’s always been an issue

9:42	Comment From Daniel Will Matt Kemp return to being a star for the Dodgers?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I can see him as a 3-4 win player

9:43	Comment From Guest How much of the pitch framing numbers for the guys that BP reported in the +2/+3 win-from-framing range do you think is real and how much is from some kind of pfx errors?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we’re observing pfx errors but the more I talk to people the more I’m skeptical of the full reported range of values. Everyone agrees that framing is a real skill but not many people believe there can be differences of 40-60 runs between the endpoints

9:43	Comment From marinersvision Is it weird to still have hope for Erasmo Ramirez?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: He’s 23 years old and he can throw 96

9:44	Comment From Bip Roberts Do you get annoyed when people pretend to be a certain player and ask questions regarding themselves?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I get annoyed when people ask fantasy baseball questions that they try to disguise as non-fantasy baseball questions

9:44	Comment From bbquestionguy How many baseball games are you going to watch this baseball season? Regular season, all-star game, postseason included.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Well I watch all of the playoffs, basically

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I won’t watch the All-Star Game, probably

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: During the season, I’ll watch fewer games complete from start to finish, but I’ll bounce around plenty

9:45	Comment From Kimball All the injuries in ST this year show the dangers of the WBC, obviously. Seriously, though, seems like there are more this year than usual, but can’t find anyone qualified saying so (or otherwise). Just good ol’ recency bias?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: There have probably been springs like this before. I have to assume this is worse than average. But there’s no reason to believe anything in particular has gone wrong — it’s just the average plus, say, one standard deviation. Nothing systemic

9:46	Comment From Andrew McCutchen Do I have another Leap left in me?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: You just had an 8-WAR season

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Settle for the 8-WAR seasons, dude

9:46	Comment From RK So what’s a fair return for Tabata? Smoak + ? = Tabata

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Smoak for Tabata has been bandied about pretty often for months, but while it’s probably about even, I don’t think the Mariners would do it

9:47	Comment From Vin Bigger impact this season… Yordano Ventura or James Paxton?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Ventura

9:47	Comment From DB Yoenis Cespedes’s average was horrific last year. He’s cut weight, leaned out, and shortened his swing. Yet he’s hitting below the Mendoza line this spring. Relax or worry?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Consider your last noun

9:48	Comment From Jim O Seems like the dainty handling of starting pitchers for innings and pitches has not led to a decrease in major surgeries. Could it be the opposite approach is better?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: You mean working them into the ground?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: No, that would not be better

9:48	Comment From Em Where’s Drew sign, and when?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Boston? Few weeks from now

9:49	Comment From quinceleather Lincecum seems to be changing his strategy to be more Hudson-like with fewer Ks and more ground balls….seems like a big change and what do u think are the odds of success? I would define success as giving up fewer runs while carrying a hefty workload.

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: If Lincecum exchanges strikeouts for grounders, I expect that he would do worse than he would if he kept it up with the strikeouts. I imagine he’ll settle into his familiar strikeout range but I am admittedly interested in seeing where he goes this season since he’s allegedly a new man with a new approach

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: And let’s face it, he could use some significant changes

9:51	Comment From Shube Where does Chris Owings go and what is his upside?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Heard a Michael Young comparison over the weekend. Not sure he’s going — Arizona needs to make a decision and Owings/Gregorius is 50/50 even though they’re basically opposite players

9:51	Comment From Tommy Fresh More likely to happen: Joey Votto quiets idiot fans/commentators by driving in 120 RBi or a volcano eruption kills somebody?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Volcano eruptions kill people every month

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Oftentimes they’re people doing something stupid like getting closer to a volcano that is blowing up

9:53	Comment From Green Beer Puke Remorse What would you do if you won Warren Buffet’s $500 million ncaa contest?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Figure out how much of that I actually get to keep and put 95% of that money into retirement

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: then I’d go down the street and buy myself an ice cream

9:53	Comment From OHenry First manager to be fired?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Oh man

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really know. Fredi Gonzalez? Mike Scioscia, if the Angels have a bad start again?

9:55	Comment From Jeff Realistic expectations for Cano’s power numbers? Also, favorite Mariner’s commercial this year?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: .180-.190 ISO, Crowned

9:55	Comment From DB There’s been talk of Wilin Rosario seeing time in RF and 1B on his off days. Still the plan, and if so how many games does he play at both positions?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: The games he doesn’t play at catcher will be the Rockies’ most watchable games

9:56	Comment From Mike at the Ted Think Yordano Ventura will be moving up draft boards now? Your thoughts on the guy?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Exciting, likely to be a bit overrated because of his velocity. Unconvinced at this point by the secondary stuff, but I do think he can be effective over the course of a full season

9:56	Comment From Jack odds Taijuan Walker has “Matt Harvey”-level impact this year?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: You mean be maybe the best pitcher in baseball?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: 0.5%

9:57	Comment From Boobs Who’s the next young, promising SPer to go down with a major arm injury?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: If I could answer that I’d be working with a baseball team

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Or I’d be destined for jail

9:57	Comment From J Peterman RE: Jordan/Detwiler, what happened to Tanner Roark? Is he still in the conversation for a rotation spot later in the season?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Right, that was my mistake, Roark is still alive for the time being

9:58	Comment From Guest Other than disappointment, any thoughts on the rash of TJ surgeries this spring

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: It’s interesting to monitor the effects this is having on the projected standings and playoff odds

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: In a flash, teams are no longer in the positions they thought they’d be in

9:59	Comment From J Have you seen Tanaka’s splitter? Awesome right? http://pitchergifs.com/gif-of-the-week-3-tanakas-world-famous-splitter/

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Well we kind of already knew that

9:59	Comment From Geoff Homer Bailey make the leap to “elite”?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Doubt it

9:59	Comment From Mike Carp Where should I buy a new house?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: You should probably just rent apartments

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: But I’d recommend checking out the listings in Pittsburgh

9:59	Comment From Not a Guest Outside of catcher, which position do you think takes the most beating with the daily grind of a whole season?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: SP