Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/25/14

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Hello there, friends and others!

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: I can already tell this chat is going to be littered with questions about Nick Franklin and Didi Gregorius.

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: So we’ll deal with that on a case-by-case basis. I’ll also have you know it’s my intention to chat for less time than usual, because today will be an unusually busy day outside of this.

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: So I’ll try to chat a little faster to make up for the reduced duration

9:02	Comment From juan pierres mustache Mets just sent Dice-K to minors…you think Mejia gets the 5th spot now?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Looking that way to me. Which means a temporary delay in jerking him around!

9:03	Comment From XanderFan Thoughts on Chris Archer? Likely to take the next step forward this year? Regress?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not in love. I’m expecting a similar performance with more runs allowed

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: In my grand experiment, I get all the Rays pitching performances with league-average pitch-framers

9:04	Comment From disco derk how about a Uggla for Romero swap?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s specify the Romero here

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: But for the time being the Braves actually seem somewhat content with Uggla

9:05	Comment From MG Vernon Who should leadoff for the Mariners?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Probably Brad Miller but I’m a bigger fan of Almonte than perhaps I ought to be

9:06	Comment From Stephen Jason Kipnis. Is he worth all the fuss?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: You mean the four-win second baseman? He’s worth a considerable amount of fuss

9:06	Comment From kramer team you think is going to be better than their projected wins?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: and Dodgers

9:06	Comment From Texas Tornado Hi Jeff. Happy Tuesday! Thoughts on Tanner Scheppers as a starting pitcher?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Overrated by our projection systems who don’t know how to adjust a relief pitcher into a starting pitcher!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say he’s even wowed me as a reliever to date. I trust the Rangers for the most part with their pitcher conversions but I don’t expect Scheppers to be much more than a hard-throwing No. 4

9:08	Comment From Mac Standard 12 team H2H… Jose Altuve or Jose Reyes?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: FANTASY QUESTION

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: JOSE REYES

9:09	Comment From Jake Let’s just get this out of the way, what does a Gregorious to NYY trade look like?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: They say Arizona wants a big-league-ready starting pitcher. The Yankees don’t have a ton to spare, but maybe you start by talking about Phelps or Nuno

9:10	Comment From Bret Do you have any more insights this week on why the Jays are going to make Ryan Goins their 2B than you had last week, or the week before, or the week before, or the week before, or the we

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: I’m currently what you might call “shocked”. I refuse to believe this remains the actual plan but the closer we get the less time there is to adjust. There are still players to be moved around so it’s not like the Jays CAN’T make a deal before Opening Day, but it’s looking less likely and you better hope Goins is like a +20 defender or something

9:11	Comment From juan pierres mustache oh MAN i have been looking for the hot internet spot to learn about mid-tier shortstop transaction news

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately there’s nothing new to learn!

9:12	Comment From Ted the Bear If healthy all season, can Brett Anderson be a top 60-70 starting pitcher this year at Coors?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: The guy with the mid-3 career FIP and xFIP?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but. That’s Brett Anderson for you. “Yes, but-”

9:12	Comment From Guest Erik Bedard vs Scott Baker?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Bedard’s better at this point

9:14	Comment From Whistlers Mother How will teams go about managing innings limits for Danny Salazar, Alex Wood, and Nate Eovaldi?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Salazar is already being handled carefully and I expect the Indians might take advantage of a few off days to skip him. Wood could spend time in the bullpen depending on who returns to the Braves rotation. Eovaldi, I’m less sure, and he exceeded 150 innings just a couple years ago. He might be taken care of by his own injury issues

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Eovaldi could probably throw 170-180 frames if his arm doesn’t hurt

9:16	Comment From Kevin With Corey Hart the DH, which OF loses out on playing time the most – Saunders, Almonte, Morrison?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Morrison’s in an unfortunate place. Which is probably good for the Mariners. I was worried they were going to jettison Saunders for nothing

9:16	Comment From Jake To what extent will having Fangraphs+ give me existential satisfaction beyond a typical fangraphs account?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: 7

9:17	Comment From kevinthecomic So, how bad are Lombardozzi, Perez, Suarez and Worth that the Tigers chose Gonzalez and Romine over them??? Kinda suggests that they have no plans for Perez and Suarez, doesn’t it?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Would you have plans for them?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t have plans for them.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Omar Vizquel seems to be high on Gonzalez. I wish them all the luck.

9:18	Comment From Jay What do you think Sizemore can do if he wins the Red Sox CF job?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Play well and have people fall in love with him

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: At this point it looks like Sizemore’s winning the job. I don’t want to get ahead of myself. I just want to appreciate that we are where we are, with him, in 2014

9:19	Comment From TJ Please tell me everything you know about Gregorius & Franklin! ASAP! …or you can talk a little about what impact Grady Sizemore & Matt Kemp will have on their teams’ playoff chances this season…that’s fine too.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Well, the Dodgers are kind of already a virtual playoff lock, so Kemp won’t mean all that much. Sizemore has given the Red Sox Jackie Bradley insurance and if he’s legitimately good again, for a while, then it gives Boston an extra leg up on Tampa Bay

9:20	Comment From disco derk what do you realistically expect out of Jeter?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: 1 WAR

9:21	Comment From Catoblepas Doing some reading about probability and forecasting, and I was wondering how you feel about PECOTA offering the 10th- through 90th-percentile projections for each year? Worthwhile, helpful, something more systems should do?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: More systems should offer ranges, but with PECOTA, the ranges are so huge I don’t think people know at all what to make of them. You’re talking about floor –> ceiling and for any given player that’s going to be like 5-6 wins or something

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Systems should have a projection volatility rating, or something. I don’t think a system benefits from showing the mean +/- multiple standard deviations

9:22	Comment From Guest Profar thoughts?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Unlucky for him, unlucky for the Rangers, lucky for the Angels. But I wasn’t projecting Profar to be an impact player in 2014 so the Rangers could’ve lost a more damaging asset

9:22	Comment From Serious Scientist If Nick Franklin and Didi Gregorious were sent by rocket ship to study volcanic activity on Io, the moon of Jupiter, should the Mariners or DBacks try to rekindle trade talks for Price?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Rays aren’t trading Price until next offseason, at this point

9:23	Comment From Guest What the chance that Marcus Semien gets 500 or more ABs?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Low!

9:23	Comment From Clayton Good morning! What do you think about Votto’s approach this year and what effect it’ll have on his numbers?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll get more selective and I think it’ll help him stave off statistical decline

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Votto’s in a position to get better, aside from the return of some power as his leg improves. But he can stay away from pitches that increasingly give him trouble, and that’ll help him a decent amount

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I love, incidentally, that Votto is going to tighten up his strike zone. Just a big ol F-U to the critical observers

9:25	Comment From Ron Juan Francisco has value if he lands a starting DH spot in the AL?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Juan Francisco has a career 0.5 WAR

9:25	Comment From JohnnyP Would you rather start Chirinos or Arencibia behind the plate?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: sigh Arencibia 🙁

9:25	Comment From KJ Thoughts on news that Jaso is to be starter vs righties? Right call?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Right call if he can handle it but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more Vogt and then Jaso at DH if Jaso has issues or if Barton doesn’t hit

9:26	Comment From Switters Is the Reyes hammy news as heartbreaking for you as for me? He’e like the the M. Alou of SS, money when he plays, which is rarely.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Two years ago he played in 160 games

9:27	Comment From Stephen What do you take for Jed Lowrie over/under on 105 games played this season? He’s only ever made it to 100 games once (ONCE!) in his major league career.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: And that was last season! Injuries are hard to predict. I figure Lowrie will beat that estimate

9:27	Comment From _David_ Lloyd McClendon said he thinks Justin Smoak can be a 100 RBI guy, so I guess things aren’t that bad for the Mariners, huh?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Lloyd McClendon thinks Justin Smoak can lead major-league baseball in doubles

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Last year Justin Smoak had 19 doubles

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: And he runs like the piano on his back has a piano on its back

9:28	Comment From obama is this the real cingrani we are seeing in spring training or can we expect last year’s wunderkind?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: The question being, what’s more important, 17 spring training innings, or 105 regular-season innings?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Expect last year’s performance, minus a few percentage points

9:29	Comment From Jared T. So now that Scott Baker has been released from the M’s, what does their rotation look like (other than “ugly”)? Felix/Paxton/Wolf/Ramirez/Beavan?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Possibly Roenis Elias for Beavan, whoever he is. But remember the last two are only very temporary

9:29	Comment From Theres No Place Like Home How far off am I when predicting Yordano Ventura to win AL ROY?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Probably pretty far on account of the whole Bogaerts/Tanaka thing

9:30	Comment From Morty Assuming Pineda wins a spot in the rotation, how do you think he’ll do this year?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Adequate, occasionally dominant, but I don’t know that the velocity’s ever coming back, which accelerates his probable need for a third pitch

9:31	Comment From Chris Will Matt Cain bounce back?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: All that really happened is that he allowed a few extra dingers

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not really worried about Matt Cain going forward in the least

9:33	Comment From Todd This is sort of a fantasy question/gripe but why do teams wait to put players on the DL in preseason? What is the advantage to not having Hamels, etc on DL if they will miss time?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: You can only put players on the DL as of a certain date later in March

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: So already there’s something built in. But my understanding is that date has passed, so I don’t know why certain teams might be delaying. There must be a reason I don’t see and it probably has something to do with money

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I guess what would be the advantage of having Hamels on the DL today? What does it matter, if the Phillies don’t even have an active roster yet?

9:36	Comment From Rick Thoughts on Yordano Ventura & Taijuan Walker? They gonna light it up this year or are we gonna need to hold our collective breath until 2015?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: For as exciting as Ventura is, he hasn’t quite been a strikeout machine. And Walker has inconsistent fastball command and a developing breaking ball. They’re going to be fascinating for much of the summer, but they’re unlikely to be consistently awesome

9:38	Comment From Chuck Im thinkin’ Gerrit Cole gets to the next level, alongside the likes of Strausberg, Scherzer, Waino et al. Comment?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Cole was already on that level in the second half. I’d say it would be unwise to count on him to be an ace, but if he were to pitch like an ace, it wouldn’t be surprising.

9:39	Comment From Jake All else equal, if a true talent .300 wOBA batter faces a .350 wOBA against pitcher, what is the expected wOBA of that PA? What about a .350 wOBA batter V. .300 wOBA pitcher? What is the general equation here? Dan recommended odds tables

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.insidethebook.co…

9:41	Comment From Gabe I feel like Dillon Gee for Gregorius would be a fair deal, but neither side wants this, apparently. Am I crazy?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Gee isn’t offering a whole lot in the way of surplus value moving forward. He’s adequate, but the DBacks would probably be looking for something either younger or better

9:42	Comment From Mac Does Erasmo Ramirez’s spring stats a sign of what’s to come once the games count?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be what he ought to be: strike-thrower, some missed bats, some dingers, elbow concerns

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: You know what he could be like? Old, familiar Scott Baker

9:43	Comment From R. Velarde When do you see Gausman joining the rotation this year? Do you consider it a mistake that they don’t start him in the rotation to begin the season?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Late May? I understand why the Orioles don’t want to bump anyone in the current starting staff but it shouldn’t be long before it’s clear that Gausman is one of their top five starters

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe top two starters

9:43	Comment From Guest Thanks for the chat Jeff. A GM of a team you use to blog about mentioned at one point about wanting 3 LHP in his bullpen. Your thought on how that pen could work with that many LH pitchers?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: You hope that two of them can pitch to right-handed hitters

9:44	Comment From Stephen What do you consider to be the most utterly crazy bold prediction you’ve seen so far this past few weeks?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t read predictions!

9:44	Comment From Nick Thoughts on Nieto making the jump to majors to be the White Sox backup catcher?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: They were already projected to have the worst catchers in baseball so it’s not like this can really hurt them too bad

9:45	Comment From Guest What are you expecting from Dominic Brown in 2014

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: 2 WAR

9:46	Comment From kramer why do people talk about height? doesn’t make more sense to list the height at the shoulder rather than the top of the head?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Not if you want to know how tall something is

9:46	Comment From Sonny Gray Real Estate Better year: Yordano Ventura or Drew Smyly

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: push

9:46	Comment From Sally Is Taylor Jordan’s pitch arsenal good enough to take and keep the 5th starter job in Washington?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It sure is! The bar for being a fifth starter is low and he’s perfectly fine

9:47	Comment From Jumbo Gumbo Who gets that last spot…..Jordan or Roark?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: At this point it’s almost literally 50/50 but I like Jordan to end with the greater number of innings

9:47	Comment From Machete How serious are Matt Moore’s control problems…headed to Blass or Ankeil?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: You mean legendarily bad? No, Blass and Ankiel had mental problems. Moore has a body problem.

9:49	Comment From Matt How stunned would you be if Mauer played 155 games and hit 25 home runs?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: More stunned than I am when raspberries last more than three days in the refrigerator before getting black spots

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: that is to say, extremely stunned

9:50	Comment From Rags You think Carlos Martinez is stuck in the bullpen forever now? Does he take a starting spot before the ASG?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: no, no

9:50	Comment From Ozzie So what do you think of the Quintana extension?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Quiet and good, just like Quintana himself. Will probably write about him later in the week

9:50	Comment From Guest DH excluded, where do you want your best hitter playing in the field for longevity and performance sake?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: That would be first base, but decisions aren’t made on that basis alone

9:51	Comment From Paul Grady Sizemore really going to win the CF in Boston? Any chance he regains his 30/30 form or is his body too beaten to contribute?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, no. If only because even if he’s healthy, he’s also 31 years old, now

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to play careful baseball, and the Red Sox will encourage him to do so, and he’ll get some regular time off

9:52	Comment From fan Are the M’s wasting Zunino’s offensive potential by rushing him? Or was it limited in the first place due to his strikeout rates?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: They were a little rough on him, but he’ll presumably be fine in the long run, in terms of performance vs. expected performance had he not been rushed. He’s never going to be an All-Star for his bat.

9:52	Comment From Matt At the age of 22 Oswaldo Arcia had a WRC+ of 103. I feel like people haven’t appreciated that enough. Think he can be a middle of the order hitter in a decent lineup?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Well he also had 23 walks and 117 strikeouts

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Arcia has familiar issues to work out, but given his age, yeah, he can settle in as a fine bat for the long haul

9:53	Comment From Barwin Darney How are defensive projections calculated for minor league players?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Poorly

9:54	Comment From bill Favorite type of meat? Prepared how?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: chicken, fried

9:54	Comment From Tim I’m worried about R.Soriano – the Nats can’t afford to be patient if he struggles out of the gate right?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Sure they can, their division sucks

9:55	Comment From _David_ Can the Mariners trade Nick Franklin to the Rays, Mets, Orioles, Tigers, and Rangers and they can each have him for 30 games?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Mariners want five fractions of a reasonable Nick Franklin trade return

9:55	Comment From Jared T. YOU ANSWERED A FANTASY QUESTION! I DON’T EVEN KNOW YOU ANYMORE

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: This queue…

9:56	Comment From Machete Have you read or commented on the recent reports out of Nolan Ryan and Tommy John on pitcher babying?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I sure haven’t! I sure can guess what they are!

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: They’re over-simplifying a very complicated issue

9:57	Comment From R. Velarde Do you see Kazmir maintaining the success he had last year? The home park should help him at least maintain, if not improve those numbers, right? At years end, Gray or Kazmir as the team’s Ace? Or none of the above?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Gray > Kazmir, Kazmir > rest of rotation

9:58	Comment From XanderFan Do the Tigers and/or Rangers make deals before the season starts to fill their gaping holes?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Isn’t looking that way. Rangers aren’t going to do anything to further block Profar, and they have enough rotation candidates. Tigers seem like they’re going to ride this out for at least a couple months

9:58	Comment From Magic Johnson Why won’t I trade Andre Ethier? A .280 20 HR OF isn’t exactly worthless…is Matt Kemp capable of staying healthy and coming close to his 2011 numbers? Or does the fact that he’s hanging around mean they have no confidence in his health?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s re-evaluate when you actually have a full and healthy outfield

9:59	Comment From Morty Is the NYY infield going to be absolutely brutal this year?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: It won’t be Marlins-bad!

9:59	Comment From EC Strasburg going to go HAM and destroy the league this year?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: He is good and will stay good

9:59	Comment From hooha What is the earliest you can see Ruben Amaro getting fired?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: after the draft