Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/3/17

March 3, 2017

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: This time atypically on schedule!

9:00	CamdenWarehouse: wha? on time???

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: I could’ve even started early if I wanted to. I’m on top of the ball!

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Waiting for Bork, waiting for Bork…

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Well, we’ll see if Bork shows up

9:02	Fake Bork: Hi Friend?

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Almost

9:02	Ronnie: Do you pronounce the “la” in lava like the “la” in lavender or like the “la” in la-di-da?

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: The latter

9:02	The Average Sports Fan: For what team with the lowest projected win total can you build a realistic path to the playoffs? What is it?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Well let’s just try with the terrible 65-97 Padres http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Firstly, the bullpen excels with Capps, Buchter, Hand, Maurer, etc. This I wouldn’t consider too unlikely

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Myers keeps hitting, and Hedges brings over his offensive improvements from last season. Schimpf, Solarte, Jankowski, Renfroe — these aren’t terrible supporting pieces. Let’s say Margot resembles an average CF or something like that

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: There might be just enough pitching you can squeeze out of Chacin, Richard, Cahill, Perdomo, Friedrich. I know full well this sounds insane but there isn’t nothing here, especially if Hedges helps them out and the bullpen helps Andy Green get the starters out early

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Then you throw in some BaseRuns luck. Voila! The Padres had everything go right and they made the playoffs!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: If that’s too much, I probably wouldn’t have to work too hard to get the 76-86 Diamondbacks into the postseason

9:08	Q-Ball: Does Mike Trout still have the most hypothetical trade value in baseball? Or with his higher salaries and 4 years of control, do you think Bryant may be passing him?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Right now it’s probably either Bryant or Seager. Trout would still be extremely close, just because of what he’s clearly proven himself to be, but Bryant and Seager have cheaper control, and that money is crucial

9:10	Gest: If you could watch only 3 players this spring training, who would you choose?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Players with something to prove. Felix, Keon Broxton, Alex Meyer?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I tried to watch Meyer the other afternoon but the camera angle was one of the worst I’ve ever seen.

9:11	Matty: I have the Indians vs nationals in the World Series. Would you enjoy that matchup?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I would enjoy any matchup in the World Series so long as the games themselves gave me something to write about

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Andrew Miller vs. Bryce Harper would give me something to write about

9:12

JT: Jeff, does Strasburg ever have the breakout season we’re all waiting for? People perceive him as an ace but looking at his player page, reality doesn’t really match the perception. He has the talent clearly, he’s been ace-like during certain stretches of his partial seasons but he’s always hurt and the only time he has stayed healthy an entire season he was worth “only” 4.5 WAR. Plus, FIP seems to like him quite a bit more than other metrics. Are we looking at another Rich Harden where we spend the rest of our lives wondering what-if?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s a six-win season or two in there, but I’m not buying him as a developing durable workhorse. Clearly, that’s going to hold him back

9:15	kevinthecomic: What is the biggest obstacle Lewis Brinson needs to overcome this year? Strikeouts, Staying Healthy, Something Else?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Just needs to generally improve his approach. The Brewers, at least, can be patient here, with Broxton/Santana/Braun already in the bigs

9:15	Bob: Read a few articles about process of Heyward’s swing reconstruction. Have you heard anything about how it looks? Keith Law said yesterday in his chat he hadn’t heard anything positive.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: This is one of those things that’s going to be determined after the fact. It’s good if it works and it’s not if it doesn’t. We can’t just look at a guy taking swings in March and determine whether or not he made the right adjustments. No one is nearly that good at swing analysis

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Heyward, for whatever it’s worth, has made very frequent swing adjustments. Seldom has he ever looked smooth, but he still has a good career batting line. Raul Ibanez and Hunter Pence have had what I consider reasonably ugly swings and they still produced

9:18

Jack: What do you think of Casey Gillaspie? He doesn’t seem to get much love despite the fact that he was a first-round pick, is a switch hitter with power and patience, and had a 145 WRC+ in 357 PAs at Double-A last year before being called up to Triple-A and posting a 163 WRC+ in 203 PAs. Do you think he supplants LoMo as TB’s first baseman at some point this year?

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to be honest with you: I’ve never once thought about Casey Gillaspie. Looking at him, though, and considering the low bar that Logan Morrison sets, a midseason replacement wouldn’t be at all surprising. Gillaspie might not blossom into anything special, but Morrison never did, either

9:20	Sam: As a Yankees fan, I have to say with the way spring training is going, that it’s probably down hill from here

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Going uphill is tiring

9:21	Guest: KATOH seems really high on little Vlad. Do you agree with it, and will we see him in the bigs by his 20 b-day?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I will never be able to be so optimistic about a player with so little a performance record. Doesn’t make me right and KATOH wrong; I’m just cautious with that entire player pool

9:21	Eric: Phil Hughes made his 2nd start and was consistently at 87-88 MPH on the radar gun. Do you think he can ramp up to 90? Are all pitchers in ST sitting at 2-4 MPH below their normal velocity?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: It’s still very early in spring. Many pitchers are below their summer velocities. Arm strength, in general, isn’t even fully built up by April or May. Be patient here

9:23	7777hk: How seriously does Loss of Price hurt sox?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: If Price is actually lost for the season — which is still not a certainty! — it’s a major, major blow. Probably drops the Red Sox close to Blue Jays level, meaning that becomes the first and most interesting division race in the league

9:24	Chone Figgins: Would the Mariners have ruined Mike Trout had they drafted and developed him?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: If I ever die, and if there’s a God, and if I ever meet God, this will be my…second question, probably

9:24	Hal: Why do people use “it’s all downhill” in a negative way? Which way would you rather ride your bike?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, uphill is exhausting, but downhill is brutal on the knees. But there are other ways to go downhill too! Many of them thrilling

9:25	Andrew: Why is George Springer rated so much higher than Matt Kemp? Is it simply more runs scored?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Because he’s a far superior all-around baseball player

9:25	j-dog: do you prefer Willson Contreras or Gary Sanchez?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Sanchez

9:25	Bill: A starting pitcher only has 2 pitches. How good would they have to be for the pitcher to be a good starter?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Chris Archer basically has two pitches and at times he’s been a great starter. So, slightly worse than Chris Archer’s pitches

9:26	CamdenWarehouse: I tend to think of “all downhill” with Calvin and Hobbs sledding at an uncontrollable speed before crashing.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Everyone should learn how to properly self-arrest

9:26	Rand: Eno loves Dylan Bundy for this year. Do you share his optimism?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Depends. I don’t think Bundy is on the verge of becoming an ace or anything, but I think he and Gausman are going to remain underrated because of the parks and opponents they have to deal with all the time

9:27	CamdenWarehouse: It’s a six year old and a stuffed tiger

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: SELF-ARREST

9:28	Moonraker: The projection systems have Moncada striking out at a 28% clip this year, yet he struck out 31% of the time in AA last year. I know he’s a top prospect, but don’t you agree this is pretty curious?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Very young, and he’s posted lower strikeout rates at his two other, lower-level regular stops. If projection systems didn’t make any use of aging curves, they’d be worse

9:28	Hal: Hamels was really good with 90mph fastball/changeup for until he added a curve/cutter

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: And then, of course, we have Randy Johnson

9:29	Phantastic: Seems like pitchers experiment with new pitches a lot in ST and, even if they’re successful, don’t throw that pitch during the season very much. What 2 or 3 pitchers do you see actually taking a new pitch into the season this year

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to take a quick look down Jason Collette’s new pitch tracker http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2017-new-pitch-tracker/

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I believe we’ll see changes from, say, Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Blair, and Dylan Bundy. In Bundy’s case, it would be restoring a previous pitch

9:32	Bruce Wayne: If Andrew Triggs makes 25 starts for the A’s this season are you taking the over or under on his Steamer Projections? ERA 4.41 FIP 4.23 xFIP 4.39

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Under, if under means better in this case. Triggs makes 25 starts only if he’s pretty good. Which I think he can be!

9:32	Ronnie: Question about two pitch pitchers immediately brings to mind Ben Sheets & his criminally underknown 2004 season. 264 K/32 BB in 237 IP for an even 8 WAR.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: No further comment

9:33	Raindog: I can’t shake years worth of perception that Jose Ramirez was a quality-fielding no-hit middle infielder. Am I supposed to really believe he’s a quality-hitting meh-fielding third baseman?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Have you come to terms with Justin Turner yet?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not convinced Ramirez is actually that level of hitter, but this wouldn’t be unprecedented. And he’s not…built…like a Gold Glove candidate

9:34	Tim: Am I crazy for liking Spring Training better than regular season?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Almost certainly yes, but I should at least ask for an explanation. I, personally, am a huge fan of how pretty much every ST game is a matinee. But then, I’m someone for whom baseball is my job, not something I try to experience after my job

9:35	steve: would you (not dombrowski) trade benintendi straight up for Quintana?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: That’s simultaneous addition and subtraction. Doesn’t move the needle enough

9:35	Hal: Which out of the Velasquez/Nola/Eickhoff trio are you most optimist about this year?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Nola. He’s fantastic

9:36	Brett W: If I learned anything from “Hidden Figures,” it’s that MLB could use more women to help figure out ideal launch angles. How is it that a guy like David Price can be fine in October but show up injured in February? All he did between was rest.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he wasn’t fine in October. But also, sometimes these things happen after one individual pitch. Same deal with Alex Reyes

9:36	Schilling and Pence: Do you see an incremental step forward from Machado as a hitter this year, or is his already-excellent level about where he ends up.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I think now that he’s established himself as a power hitter, he’s going to walk more, just because he’ll be pitched to more carefully

9:37	Corey: Possible that assuming Kershaw has a near-100% chance to win Cy Young if healthy is unfair to Syndergaard and his potential?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, it would be unfair to assume Clayton Kershaw is just about a Cy Young lock. He is not

9:37	Maxamuz: Keon Broxton or Melky Cabrera?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Keon Broxton at the plate, Keon Broxton in the field, Keon Broxton on the bases, Keon Broxton on a skateboard

9:37	Ajay: Are you going to write about Marcus Stroman soon?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Feels inevitable

9:40	andymcg: Please refer me to help. Stripe confirms membership payment was received, but I can’t log in. andymcglynn@outlook.com

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/contact/

9:40	Jim: So even though Joc Pederson made huge strides in his contact rate last year, he didn’t improve his K% all that much, is that the next step? And would that make him a “star”?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, the contact got a lot better, but he also took more strikes, and fouled off more strikes, so the actual in-play improvement was far smaller. Plenty of room to grow in that regard. And he handled the bat better against southpaws

9:41	Elbo: Jose Uribe was not “built like a gold glove candidate” either. Baseball is funny that way.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Neither was Juan Uribe!

9:41	Dustin: Will you please tell Tim for me that yes, he is definitely crazy for liking spring training better than the regular season?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Tim, you’re definitely crazy

9:42	Gord: Nomar Mazara seems fascinating to me. Really like his swing and I know nothing about swings. Walk rate was low compared to his in the minor leagues. What’s a realistic comp for him? Current Cespedes with a higher walk rate?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: A realistic comp is not a better version of a current superstar

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Mazara does have a very appealing swing, and he has impressive bat-to-ball skills for a 21-year-old. But there’s still a ways to go in terms of discerning the right pitches to swing at. That’s what he needs to do to maximize his game power

9:44	Raindog: I note that the Depth Charts have Tyler Naquin with a .348 BABIP next season. That seems… crazy? I don’t know how to get a leaderboard of such, but spot-checking a few, that’s higher than guys like Altuve, Hamilton, Gordon, Villar or Trout, Votto, Miggy, Harper.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: He has a history of high BABIPs in the minors as well, but, yes, I’m with you in that I’d take the under

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Feels like an over-weighting of Naquin’s cup of coffee

9:45	Bill: Do you expect regression from Taillon this year?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: No. I think he’s really good

9:45	Bill: Is Tommy Joseph over hyped?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how much he’s hyped, but he’s not particularly good, if that’s what you’re asking. He benefits from being a part of a light group of Phillies position players

9:46	Phantastic: How do FOs respond to the news of players like Price going down. Say he needs TJ surgery, is the Red Sox FO fielding calls left and right about potential trade partners from rebuilding clubs?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: There’s nothing frenetic, and mostly it would be the Red Sox reaching out in search of replacements. But every team opens ST with the knowledge that something bad could happen to anyone

9:47	Anon: Is it wrong that I’m still salty my team didn’t sign Bonds in 2008?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the magnitude of the feeling, but, no

9:47

Bert Campaneris: This may be a little difficult and lengthy to formulate, but I’ll give it a try. Regarding rotation construction (alignment), do/should clubs fear when pitchers share very similar make-ups. For instance, Ian Kennedy and Nathan Karns (Royals fan in me) both have similar arsenal (4-seamer, Knuckle Curve, Chng accdng to Brooks). As a manager, are you aiming at separating them from going on back to back days? Thanks, Jeff. I enjoy all your articles, read them religiously.

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I think you want similar repertoires separated. It would be a small effect, hard to notice, but you want to make sure hitters don’t get too comfortable with their looks. I suspect this is part of the reason why the Orioles bullpen has been so good — every pitcher in there is differently bizarre

9:48	Jack: Do you think Ryan Rua would be starting on most teams?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: No, but he’d be starting on some bad teams

9:49	Hal: KEON BROXTON CAN’T KICKFLIP, JEFF! I’VE SEEN MELKY VARIAL FLIP WITH MY OWN TWO EYES

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: GIF or it didn’t happen

9:51	YKnotDisco?!: In so many words, can you explain the “David Price” rule?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: No!

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t looked at enough video yet and I don’t recall Price’s deliveries off-hand. But I bet there’s an answer somewhere in here https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/5wwphh/david_price_rule_to_help_mlb_umpires_distinguish/

9:52	Asabin: Over/under on Kershaw k/bb: 14

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Under. Last year was crazy

9:53	YKnotDisco?!: Favorite M’s LF ever?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Chris Snelling 🙁

9:54

Bert Campaneris: Are you watching the WBC? I am hyped for it, but I understand that due to the lack of the super stars some may not be mildly invested in it. I am from the Dominican, so it is huge for the nation and that is a factor. What would you do to fix it? I know other FG’s writers have shared their take on the matter. Any takes?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have takes. I’m not really take-y. I don’t think the WBC is “broken” and I greatly enjoy it. Compared to spring training, the WBC kicks ass. I’m not convinced it will or could ever be popular in the States, but that’s our own stupid problem

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: The WBC is wonderful and anyone who doesn’t think it’s a good thing is wrong

9:55	Rand: If you were assigned to do a write up on Charlie Culberson, what would it be titled?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: A Post About Charlie Culberson, Who Is a Baseball Player

9:56	harmony: Should the Seattle Mariners be concerned about Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, Nelson Cruz, Jean Segura, Edwin Diaz, Drew Smyly and Yovani Gallardo participating in the World Baseball Classic?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: No. Why would they be?

9:56	Sano: Should I swing more?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, with two strikes

9:57	Brett W: Do you think there’s any correlation between regular season record and the portion of spring training games during which primarily 40-man roster talent is on the field?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: A weak one, sure.

9:57	James: What % chance do you give Billy Hamilton to steal 90 bases this year, assuming (for this exercise) health and a permanent spot atop the batting order?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. He had 58, but he had 36 over his final 45 games

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: 16 in July and 19 in August

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll put him at 10%

9:58	Mitch: Let’s cut to the chase. Was KATOH created to find prospects that no one else was paying attention to so you can fire Carson?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I love Carson and will not allow him to be dismissed

9:59	Dave Kingman: Will having Logan Forsythe at the top of the Dodgers lineup be better for Seager than Utley/Kendrick of last year?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Last year’s Dodgers leadoff hitters batted .259/.332/.398. Logan Forsythe is better than those statistics