Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/13/18

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Shohei Ohtani tripled yesterday

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: It was good

9:07	TF Fredrik: What the hell is with Giolito’s start to season? His velo was up in spring and his curve was back but now he’s throwing 91 and his curve only 5%?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, this has been really disappointing. Especially since it’s clear he’s followed through on his mechanical adjustment, lowering his arm slot significantly

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: He’s thrown only 55% strikes, which is terrible. His velocity hasn’t rebounded. The curve isn’t there. Maybe Giolito just…isn’t…good. But I will say this: his three game-time temperatures have been 45, 32, and 47. He hasn’t yet been able to pitch comfortably, which *might* be a factor

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, pitching under the same conditions yesterday, Jose Berrios was fantastic

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I really, really liked spring Giolito, but now I’m running out of patience

9:11	Craig: What should the Mets do with catcher?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: For now, I don’t think there’s anything to do. Nido and Lobaton are going to have to hold it down, and thankfully it seems like Plawecki will only be out 2-3 weeks. That’s not so bad, and he’s deserving of more playing time when he’s healthy, anyway

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Clearly, though, the depth has been challenged. It’s too early in the season for any team to be thinking about trades, but after the draft has passed, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Mets get, say, A.J. Ellis or someone

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Ellis would fill that role of respected veteran backup, and it’s not like the Padres are going to have any real use for him

9:14	Freddie Freeman: Last 2 calendar years, wRC+ leaders go Trout, Votto and Freeman (which includes post broken wrist 2017). Freddie needs to be thought of as one of the best hitters in baseball.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Is he not?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: If he’s not, well, he should be, absolutely. He is amazing

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Freeman also hasn’t hit a pop-up since 9/7/16

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: More and more like Votto by the day

9:16	jhg: KEON BROXTON is too good for AAA. The Brewers need to promote this man.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Victim of circumstances. At this point he probably needs a trade or for someone to sustain a major injury. There’s no outfield in baseball with more talent and depth

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I’m, let’s say, 40% surprised he never wound up dealt to the Giants

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Brewers and Royals could work something out

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Not that the Royals have very much pitching to dangle

9:21	Brian: I know the Giants will never trade them but who would say no to MadBum and Posey to the Nats for Robles and Turner?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: MadBum and Posey

9:22	BJOGC: Pitchers who don’t wear sleeves in cold weather, yet they still put on a warm up jacket when they reach base?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: When you’re on the mound, you know you’re going to remain very active. When you’re a baserunner, you don’t know that

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: On the mound, you’re doing something every 20 seconds or so. On the bases, you might be standing there for 12 minutes

9:23	Steve Nebraska: How concerned are you about JD Martinez’s K rate?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: 0%

9:24	Mac Gwire: Do you care at all about schedule at this point in the season? The Yankees play 12 straight games against Angels/Astros/Indians/Red Sox soon, which is a worry for them given how they’ve been playing.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll notice schedules sometimes, but I never think much about them since eventually things mostly balance out. And I don’t think there’s too much predictive power in the fact that the Yankees are 6-7

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Even despite some struggles, the Yankees have a top-10 wRC+, and while the team ERA is lousy, the team FIP- ranks fifth

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees are great, no matter what’s happened the last two weeks

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The one schedule I feel bad about is Tampa Bay’s. They started 1-8, because they played their first nine games against the Yankees and Red Sox. That does mean they have fewer such games remaining, but what a horrible way to begin

9:27	Panik Button: Is Josh Hader going to be for the Brewers what Chris Devenski was last year for the Astros?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: That’s the idea, basically. He’s really super good

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: And Hader, unlike Devenski, hopefully won’t melt down down the stretch

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Hader figured out strikes somewhere last August or whenever. He’s been untouchable since

9:29	Guest: Are you watching playoff hockey with the Senators not participating? Playoff hockey is the best. You should still watch

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll watch some of it, but the thing about hockey is it’s emotional, and you come to hate every single team that isn’t your own

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: So I’m not actually rooting for anyone. I want them all to suffer

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully, almost all of them will!

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: haha!

9:31	Red Randy: What should the Reds do with Amir Garrett? He looks dominant in relief, but he’s also healthy than he has been since the start of last year. Should they try him out in the rotation again?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s face it: the members of the rotation aren’t exactly making a case for keeping their jobs

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: But then, neither are the members of the bullpen

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: The Reds can’t even act like they’re putting out fires, because the entire pitching staff is like one whole massive conflagration

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: David Hernandez is returning from the DL sometime soon. Ditto Michael Lorenzen. At that point, with the bullpen deeper and healthier, it should be easier to stretch Garrett out so that he can get his rotation innings

9:32	Charlie: Which parts of this Mets thing is real? Which parts aren’t?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Conforto, clearly, is back and 100%. Maybe even more than 100%

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: And Syndergaard looks very good, as if he didn’t miss any time. That’s as much as you could hope for

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I’m willing to buy that Gsellman can be an effective reliever

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Outside of that, few things have changed my mind. But the Mets were always going to be strong as long as they had a healthy pitching staff

9:35	CT: Why did Mike Trout’s (and presumably other players) WAR change in previous seasons? I’m assuming it has to with park factors or something.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Recently there was a big UZR update

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know enough about it to say more, but that’s the explanation

9:37	Palardelphia: Arrieta, Nola, and Pivetta have a solid grasp on their rotation spots. When Jerad Eickhoff returns, who’s the odd man out – Vince Velasquez or Ben Lively?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Probably Lively, but then he can come back when Velasquez ends up on the DL for something

9:37	Southern Bleacher Bum: What will it take for Brandon Phillips to latch on to a team and log some playing time?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: a mass extinction event

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see a single team that would meaningfully benefit from an addition like this

9:40	Bored Employee: Any hope that Profar will regain some of his lost luster?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Not much. Nothing wrong with his eye, but his quality of contact is just so mediocre

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: And now that he’s realistically not a shortstop, the offensive bar is even higher. I haven’t completely given up, but he’s done nothing to impress

9:42	Fred: Why is Anthony Banda in AAA? I’m not buying him as an inferior pitcher to guys like Yarbrough or Kittredge.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Last year in Triple-A, Yarbrough was very good, and Kittredge was also very good. Banda was not very good

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: So that more or less explains how this year has begun. But clearly, it won’t take very much for Banda to move up, since last year’s numbers are decreasingly relevant

9:44	Jake: trout and ohtani have combined for more WAR than like, a half dozen team’s entire WAR so far this season. are they the best duo to watch in baseball?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: For now, definitely, since we haven’t yet begun to take Ohtani for granted. We’re all still full of wonder

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: But, I mean, there’s Correa/Altuve, and there’s Stanton/Judge, and there’s Bryant/Rizzo, and Harper/Rendon/Scherzer/Strasburg/etc…

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: …Gosselin/Peraza…

9:48	Bored Employee: Is Nicky Delmonico a good hitter?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, but the White Sox have plenty of opportunity to allow the world to find out

9:49	Snit the Hit: A lineup with Albies, Acuna, Freeman, Swanson and Inciarte has a ton of upside, right?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Well, I don’t think Inciarte or Swanson have huge offensive upside. They should be roughly average-ish hitters. Not good, not bad

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: The others, though? Yeah. It’s starting to happen

9:50	Sharp: Nationals are playing like a stars and scrubs roster

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: They usually do, because they usually are

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: It works, though, because they probably have more stars than any other baseball team

9:52	20longyears: While some of the Pirates’ start is undoubtedly luck/SSS/April, there’s also at least some evidence that young players have developed well. When should we start considering them “real”?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: While the Pirates just played the Cubs pretty tough, they’re also being propped up by going 6-1 against the Tigers/Reds. I don’t much care about how a team plays against the Tigers and Reds

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Keep watching for another month or so and we’ll see how indicators start to settle down. I think the Pirates came into the year kind of underrated, and I’m excited by what I’ve seen from, say, Polanco and Moran, but for now this still isn’t quite a playoff team to me

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I wish Tyler Glasnow would throw some damn strikes 🙁

9:54

Erik: 20 years from now, how many two-way players will be on major-league rosters? Am I crazy to think it’ll be at least 15 or so, with more teams having one than not? If Ohtani proves that it can work, more and more guys will be brought up that way in the minors. And with teams wanting as many relievers on the roster as possible, the ability to have effectively two players occupying one roster spot will only get more important.

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t feel this way. I think there are very, very few players with the skills to handle both responsibilities. Now, there might be more position players who are just skilled enough to throw a bunch of mop-up innings — the Chris Gimenez types. But if anything, 20 years from now, rosters will have expanded, so teams won’t need so much flexibility

9:56	Father Fry: Does Bryan Mitchell suck? It seems like Bryan Mitchell sucks.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I think that, as a starting pitcher, Bryan Mitchell sucks

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: It was a worthwhile attempt, and I thought there was some upside there, but even through three starts, this is pretty conclusive. Three strikeouts and 14 walks? That’s almost impossible. So, so bad

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: He should be moved to the bullpen post-haste, but for the fact that the Padres don’t have any other starters

9:57	Bored Employee: How much do you buy into Chase Anderson’s finish to last year?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: He’s no ace, but I buy him as somewhere in between a 2 and a 3

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I love that changeup

9:59	TF Fredrik: I saw Ozzy Albies swing at a 3-2 fastball the other day that was pretty much middle middle. He swang right thru it. Have you watched any Ozzie at bats and seen same load and swing? From that one at bat it looked like he’s trying to hit 30 this year.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: For such a little dude, it more or less requires max effort to hit a ball out of the yard