Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/20/18

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I was away and off the grid Thursday, and missing one day of baseball always makes me feel like I missed a hundred. Let’s see how this goes!

9:06	BJOGC: So…. About Carson’s Chat. I wish I hadn’t have been there because now I realize how empty and meaningless life will be without the prospect of him doing weekly chats.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: It sounds as if he has been successful

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: In that this is one more person who is going to live feeling like life is empty and meaningless

9:07	J: How does xwoba treat foul outs? Any idea?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: No idea, but I’ll try to find out!

9:07	walewander: do you have anything to say about the Tigers?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: They are bad, but not so bad that they can’t beat other bad teams

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I’m becoming very very modestly interested in Dixon Machado?

9:09	Eric: Charlie Morton has been outrageously good so far. Can he keep this up, or is he over his head?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: He’s somehow throwing even harder by almost a mile per hour, which indicates good things about his health, arm strength, and mechanics. More velocity is a good thing for performance, so as long as this keeps up, he should be terrific

9:11	Matt: Analysis Idea: Compare Stanton’s slow start to Judge’s July 2017 slump

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not going to worry about Stanton having a 97 wRC+ until we figure out why Votto has a 63 wRC+

9:12	Xolo: What are the chances that Villanueva’s actually an above-average player?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t yet really trust his plate discipline, and he has an extremely pull-heavy approach, but at the very least he’s clearly more interesting over there than Chase Headley would be. Right now, I could buy Villanueva as being an overall average player. His stock is on the rise

9:15	Bartolo Semi-Colon: Could Mitch Haniger by the midst of a Donaldson (mid-to-late 20’s breakout)?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Haniger quite has Donaldson’s max power level, but this is why we found Haniger so interesting at the time of the trade to the Mariners — he was a definite swing-changer who could play defense and hit the ball out of the yard, and now he’s playing every day

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Haniger’s good. His season got somewhat derailed a year ago because of injury, but he had an amazing April in 2017 as well

9:17	FRANCHY!: What do you make of Franchy’s first few games . . . will he make it despite his K rate?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Five players this year have hit at least two balls at 115+ miles per hour: Giancarlo Stanton, Nelson Cruz, Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, and Franchy Cordero

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Cordero remains very exciting to me, because of his strength and athleticism, and I think he could make it as a regular player even with a strikeout rate around 30-35%. His other skills are that good

9:19	THE Average Sports Fan: What is your opinion of the Reds front office? As a fan is there hope this rebuild is actually going to work out?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Speaking in very general terms, I think when it comes to roster-building, the Reds are below average. But the farm is strong, Senzel is coming, and you can squint and almost see the makings of most of a starting rotation

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: This month has been a disaster, and I’d prefer that there be some other group of executives steering the ship, but the Reds aren’t as far away as their record would indicate. It’s not hopeless

9:21	Rock Kickass: Berrios, Snell, and Corbin are showing off a lot of their promise. Which of these do you think can sustain their success for the rest of the season?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I think all three are good, but, with Berrios and Corbin, these current levels are unsustainably perfect

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I really love how Corbin has developed his slider. It’s covering a range of like 10-15 miles per hour!

9:22	John: Braves are obviously high variance, but if you believe in Ozzie and Dansby, are they actually pretty good? Too early to pursue Machado?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: It’s never too early to try to pursue a 25-year-old superstar at a position of need

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Braves can actually pitch well enough to hang around for all six months, but I’m always willing to give young pitchers the opportunity to earn my trust. I’d love it if Newcomb were actually able to throw strikes now

9:25	Bill Rott: What are the chances that Junior Guerra recaptured some 2016 magic?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: His velocity is up, so if that’s for real, that’s reason enough to believe he could stick at the back end of the rotation

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Four-seamer lost almost two ticks last season. It’s already back up by 1.2

9:27	Sharp: Is this how sabr fans appear to outsiders? https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/moneybattle

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:28	Egg: If you’re the Mets, what’s your next move with Harvey?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: I’d put him in the bullpen for at least a start or two. I know he’s stubborn and reluctant, saying he’s a starting pitcher and everything, but he’s the least-deserving starter right now to stay in the five, and it would be important to me to see if he could handle such a decision without melting down

9:29	John Oleruds Helmet: Am I the only one getting really tired of every player throwing a celebration to the dugout every time they drive in a run now??

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, but that’s for them, not for you

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: You wouldn’t even notice if the camera didn’t cut to the player when he’s making whatever gesture he makes

9:31	Ern: Worried about Edwin Encarnacion’s start? Looks like he’s chasing more pitches out of the zone.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: We’ve seen this one before. Didn’t start out well last season either, with elevated strikeouts. He gets the benefit of the doubt from me for another month or so

9:31	Davy: SSS but Meg Rowley seems like the real deal.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: She’s great, and she’s been great for years. Couldn’t have been happier when I found out she was hired

9:32	Charlie: I’ve never heard your GIF pronunciation rant and I’m interested to hear it.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I am never engaging in this again in my life

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: This is my solemn swear

9:33	Bob Dobalina: Is Gsellman too valuable out of the pen, or is it worth giving him a spot start or two to see what he’s capable of? The Mets’ back-end is a mess and I feel like he’s not far off from being better than a few of them.

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t necessarily close the door on his ever being a starter again, but it’s easy to see how he could be a guy who’s really benefited from the bullpen switch. No need to do anything soon. Let Vargas mix in a few times and see how bullpen Gsellman holds up. I’d be just fine with him throwing 70 innings or whatever of quality relief

9:36	Henry Rowengartner: Nola finished 2017 strong and has had his underlying numbers trend positively. Is he going to right the ship or are we looking at a different Nola right now?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know why he would be fundamentally different. He’s throwing the same stuff and he ought to end up missing more bats

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Side note: it’s a sign of the times that we’re saying “right the ship” about a starter with a 2.22 ERA

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: There was an early stretch last year where Nola didn’t miss bats like he usually does. He’s going to come around, I’m confident

9:39	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Why don’t we use xwOBA more to evaluate hitters over wRC+? We use input-based stats like FIP for pitchers.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I think we’re seeing xwOBA more and more often, but it’s also not perfect, because there are certain types of hitters who are just consistently going to overperform or underperform their Statcast numbers

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: For example, last year Dee Gordon had a 92 wRC+, and the tenth-worst xwOBA in the game

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a speed and batted-ball-distribution aspect, and xwOBA doesn’t tackle that

9:42	Bored Employee: Are you holding out any hope for Amed Rosario to be an above-average offensive player?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Not much. Maybe he’s Orlando Arcia

9:42	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry, that was a delayed one

9:44	CamdenWarehouse: So what did the Reds learn about Price that they didn’t know last October? I never understand early seasoning firings on teams that expected to be bad.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: They didn’t expect to be this bad

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Of course it’s not Price’s fault, but in a way it’s surprising he lasted as long as he did, because rebuilding teams generally experience a lot of managerial churn. Price wasn’t going to be the manager if/when the Reds got good again anyhow

9:47	Jake: What to make of Rich Hill? His O-Swing% and Z-Swing% are trending in worrying directions.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: He’s only made three starts, and just one of those has been particularly bad. It appears he made that start while dealing with some kind of discomfort in his middle finger, which would stand to have a definite effect on his command and ability to spin consistently

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Hill last year through eight starts: 20% O-Swing. Final 17 starts: 32% O-Swing

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Give him a longer leash

9:52	Eyevee4: The braves have been beating good teams convincingly, and have prospect reinforcements on the way later this year. Are they ready to compete a year earlier than expected or are they a mirage.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I was on board with the Phillies as a dark-horse WC contender, and the Braves and Phillies, overall, aren’t too dissimilar

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure how much I believe that Foltynewicz and Newcomb will remain so successful, but definitely, if Swanson has bounced back, there’s more and more to like here

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: A rebuild that, from the beginning, was designed to build around pitching is likely to benefit most strongly from production on the position-player side

9:55	Henry Rowengartner: Who finishes the season with more Cy Young votes: McCullers or Verlander?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Verlander. Voters love innings thrown, and Verlander always racks those up, while McCullers will mix in short starts and probably a DL stint somewhere

9:56	jim: even though the normal service time date has passed, are some teams likely to keep their top prospects down past the super 2 deadline as well

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Some, definitely, although this one is always more tricky because there is no set date on a yearly basis. It’s always changing so that makes it harder to predict

9:57	Bored Employee: Domingo German has some pedigree and good performance sprinkled between the injuries. Do you think he has a chance at a rotation spot?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Throws four pitches with regularity, and last year between Double- and Triple-A, he maintained very strong peripherals. He deserves a look

9:58	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Does Mallex Smith need more reps, or is he just a bad defender?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: DRS actually loves him. UZR thinks he’s fine. No questioning the range, but he’ll lose points on a regular basis because of his arm

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine it’s a matter of reps at this point