Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/6/18

April 6, 2018

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:08	Daniel Vogelbach: By how much do I have to outperform Healy to become the starter or at least platoon full time?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Not sure you’ll even get the chance, at first. The Mariners appear committed to giving Healy a long leash, and they won’t replace him until it’s clear that he’s bad or that Vogelbach is amazing

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Vogelbach will probably have a return trip to Tacoma coming up

9:09	Bork: Is Gabe Kapler being paid by the Yankees to make Aaron Boone look good?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Gabe Kapler made the unforgivable mistake of being different

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Never be different in Philadelphia

9:10	Taxes: Should I do them?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Someone should

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t have to be you

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Unless you don’t feel like it

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Who am I to tell you how to live your life

9:12	Monsignor Martinez: With a career K/9 of under 4 and an opposing BABIP of .280, how did Cy Young pitch so successfully?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Over his career the league-average strikeout rate was even lower than his

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: And his walk rate was far better than average, too

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Wasn’t so bad to allow a lot of contact when no one had the ability to hit the ball out of the yard. Cy Young allowed 138 homers in 22 seasons

9:14	Whitty: Thought on Nick Williams calling out Kapler for his lineup creation? Are players already turning on him? Or is this an isolated incident from an immature player?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: To a certain extent this isn’t even Kapler’s fault. The front office forced his hand by moving Hoskins to the outfield and by signing Kingery

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: The roster construction demands that players get regular breaks, so that there’s room for everybody. The players who have to sit aren’t going to be thrilled about it. But I’m not sure what Kapler is supposed to do. No way for Williams to get 150 starts

9:16	Wiggle: Thoughts on where Johnny Cueto ends up? Walks are closer to career levels but other peripherals don’t look so hot.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Stuff looks fine, contact rate looks more or less normal. Cueto should be solid provided no more blisters

9:18	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Much has been written about Chris Archer’s peripherals vs his results. Who is another pitcher you consider to be about as good as Archer?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I think a big part of this probably comes down to the competition that Archer has faced. Since 2012, when he debuted, his divisional opponents rank 4th, 6th, 8th, and 11th in wRC+

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Yankees rank 1st, 2nd, and 6th in HR/FB%

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: So of course Archer’s home runs are somewhat inflated — he’s faced an unusual number of powerful lineups

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Anyway, to answer your question, Gerrit Cole?

9:22	3 Ben Sheets to the Wind: Confidence in Corbin to pitch relatively like this all year?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Well he won’t maintain this kind of strikeout rate but I don’t know how it could hurt him to use his best pitch more. I think he’ll be legitimately improved

9:23	Armchair Manager: Hi Jeff, If I’m reading run expectancy tables correctly, it’s basically always a bad idea to sacrifice a runner over to second base. Is this true, and if so, why do managers keep doing it? I don’t know much but the numbers seem kind of clear.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a reason sac bunts are disappearing, especially among non-pitchers. It’s not an optimal play

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Now, sometimes you have particular bad matchups. If there’s a really good righty on the mound and you have a weak right-handed hitter, it makes more sense to bunt if someone better is on deck

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: And the run-expectancy tables, viewed simplistically, don’t tell you that on a non-negligible number of sac bunts, there can be defensive errors that allow everyone to reach

9:24	THE Average Sports Fan: What is your take on Kapler?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: From the beginning, it was understood that some people would love him and some people would hate him. Anyone who’s that polarizing will get buried at any and every opportunity

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: The challenge is and has always been maintaining the confidence in the clubhouse. Kapler doesn’t have to give a shit what anyone is writing. None of it matters. He just needs to make sure he has buy-in from the Phillies themselves. He’s going to make some unusual decisions. How many of them work out, we won’t know for months. I’m glad he’s getting this opportunity

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a real chance Kapler could be a failure. Just might not be cut out to be a leader. We don’t know that yet, and we can’t learn anything, really, from a shift that doesn’t work

9:28	TKDC: Should pitcher hitting count towards Cy Young voting? How about Ohtani’s hitting?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’m surprised I’m saying this but I think my answer is no. For me, the Cy Young is just about the pitching itself

9:29	Maester Aemon: So… The Braves’ offense?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Current Braves with a four-digit OPS: Freddie Freeman! Ryan Flaherty! Preston Tucker!

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s too bad that Tucker is about to lose his job through no fault of his own. But what I really love here are Freeman’s 10 walks and 3 strikeouts

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: He is so, so good

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I love how a rebuild built entirely around young pitching has gotten to the point where it’s mostly about Freeman, Albies, and Acuna

9:31	Rob refsnyder’s falling catch: Who is your twitter avatar? I always thought it was Ibanez but he’s clearly on the grass when he spiked it.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: It is indeed Raul Ibanez

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Raul Ibanez had multiple lawn darts

9:32	Seff Jullivan: Say Josh Donaldson’s arm injury ends up being serious and forces him to DH a large percentage of the season. How will this affect his earning power this offseason?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: J.D. Martinez just got 5/$110m, with the Red Sox effectively bidding against themselves. And Martinez is hardly going to see the field. Donaldson will be older than Martinez was as an FA, but he’s so very good that he’d still get a huge deal

9:34	dodger dogg: what do you make of the dip in velocity for Dodgers pitchers…WS hangover

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Not worried about Kershaw’s velocity. Minimally worried about Wood’s velocity. Most worried about Jansen’s velocity. I’m at a 7/10 alarm level here

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: It did seem like there was a little improvement last time out, so I won’t be in a full-on panic unless this keeps up another week or two

9:37	YOAT: It’s pretty amazing that Scott Kazmir has 25 WAR to his name. Will be interested to see if he is done or can squeak out a little more of an MLB career

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: If he were even the slightest bit more durable, he’d probably be with the Padres by now

9:37	Bill: It’s Friday and only half the MLB teams are playing . . . how did this happen?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Bunch of home openers yesterday, so just like last week, today is to cover for potential rain-outs that didn’t happen

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Won’t see this anymore the rest of the season

9:39	Bert: Is this the year Nomar Mazarra arrives at his expected performance? Is .280/.350/.500 achievable?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Minor trivia: last year Mazara topped out at an exit velocity of 113.6. The other day he hit two balls at 114+

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Since this is just his age-23 season, I expect that he will indeed take a step forward

9:41	Gavin: Daniel Norris is the girl that the Tigers continually spurn only to see her take her glasses off and let down her hair and strike out 6 in 3.1 innings

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: At least for me, Norris remains the most interesting thing about the Tigers right now

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to end up in Triple-A, but he shouldn’t be there for long, I don’t think

9:44	Maester Aemon: Is there anything in Preston Tucker’s history that makes you think he can be a major league regular with some power?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Been an above-average hitter in the minors at every stop, and he’s strung together ISOs of .200+

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: At the major-league level he’s hit a bunch of balls around 110mph, so the bat speed is good, if short of fantastic

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I bet he can be a fringe starter. It’s too bad about the Acuna thing

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: For him, I mean. Not for anyone else

9:45	Shef: Who’s the fill in closer in Milwaukee?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Gotta assume it’s Hader

9:46	TKDC: If Ohtani is a much better hitter than pitcher, would the Angels make him a full time DH/closer?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I think that would only make things more complicated. How do you start a guy in the lineup and also have him warm up to potentially relieve in 70 games?

9:47	Kevin: I only have enough love for one player do I choose Trout or Ohtani?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: First you need to perform some stretching exercises for your heart

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Your capacity for love is shamefully low

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Trout

9:50	otis: Have you seen any of Nick Pivetta’s first two starts? If so, any thoughts?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t looked at him in depth yet, but I liked a lot of what I saw in 2017 and I’ve looked forward to seeing him make 25-30 starts this time. I think he has a plus fastball, and it looks like he’s abandoned his changeup this year

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: At the same time, he’s added to the depth on his curveball. Pairs well with the four-seamer. Kind of Porcello-y, with more zip

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Will be a matter of command; the stuff is good enough to work

9:53	THE Average Sports Fan: Who would you choose to head the MLBPA?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I doubt I even know the name of the person who would be the best possible pick

9:53	Bill: You wrote in the off-season about Matt Albers’ signs of break-through last year . . . do you think he has what it takes to close while Knebel is out?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Brewers are blessed to have a few options

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Only Hader could be as dominant as Knebel, but it’s a deep bullpen, especially if/when Logan ever returns. Albers could do it, but so could a few others

9:54	Jim: Do the Dodgers have the SP depth to rest Hill and company consistently this year?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I think they have the least SP depth they’ve had in a few years, but Font could work, and Buehler is coming. So there’s nothing desperate

9:55	TKDC: Is Ohtani the runaway favorite for guy that will have the most Fangraphs articles about him in 2018?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Him or Trout

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: And Ohtani is basically two players in one, so that’s cheating!

9:55	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Bullpen day is the new Rays ace. How about Yonny Chirinos?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Fringe Five superstar!

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Chirinos in Triple-A last season: 22 walks, 120 strikeouts

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: In typical Rays fashion, he seems to like to elevate his fastball. In less typical Rays fashion, his fastball isn’t really high-spin. Got a good splitter. Nothing positive about the Rays’ pitching injuries, except that they’ll give opportunities to sleeper pitchers in the system as a consequence

9:59	Jason: Are the issues with Kapler overblown and just old school people not used to new ways? Probably some of this although if he loses the clubhouse that seems like a real problem.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, clubhouse is the only problem