Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/22/14

April 22, 2014

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello there friends and enemies!

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I have been later than this in the past!

9:05	Comment From TigersFan Are we witnessing the beginning of the sharp decline of Miguel Cabrera?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Miguel Cabrera has sucked. But Robinson Cano has sucked, Matt Holliday has sucked, Prince Fielder has sucked, Allen Craig has sucked…

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I’m most willing to believe Cabrera’s still just trying to piece everything together coming back from injury. But we can at least probably conclude that Cabrera isn’t going to get any better than he’s been in his MVP seasons

9:07	Comment From Vliet Jeff – your thoughts on Drew Hutchison. Thks!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: If I wanted to hunt for flaws, I’d say I don’t think he throws quite enough strikes and he isn’t particularly deceptive. Could use better weapons against lefties. But as is there’s no reason to think he doesn’t belong in a big-league rotation, and he’s more than a No. 5

9:09	Comment From Xolo Should Headley have taken the $39M?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, if his thing is getting less money instead of more money

9:10	Comment From Guest What your opinion on Mike Minor?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Good pitcher about as good as he’s going to get and I hope he can pitch well all season after his return so we can all put the urethra thing behind us

9:11	Comment From tommy where does dee gordon rank on all the all time list of great shortstops? better than jeter?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: might be a worse defender than Jeter

9:12	Comment From Xolo How much longer till we can stick a fork in Yonder Alonso?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like he might be another one of the big-name first-base prospects who just didn’t develop into anything more than a bench bat

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Alonso was never exciting. Doesn’t have enough standout skills, and standout skills aren’t developing.

9:14	Comment From Charlie Blackmon So, ready to knight me as your new king?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t kings do the knighting, of others?

9:14	Comment From GianMarlo Stanfield Percent chance the Braves have at 95+ wins?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: 8%?

9:14	Comment From Maddy Smyly for Bogaerts. Adequate compensation?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: lol

9:15	Comment From Sean Is Chris Sale dead. What are the funeral arrangements.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Give the family time

9:15

Comment From Catoblepas
Hi Jeff! Was reading an article that posited that maybe sluggers being shifted on weren’t bunting because they wanted to “save” the bunt for a high-leverage situation, and were worried that if they took advantage of the shift too many times they wouldn’t have that chance. Had you considered that in your thoughts on bunting against the shift? Does it make any sense?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: It’s lovely to think that players think like that and it’s also almost certainly incorrect. Can’t entirely rule it out, and maybe it’s the case for a handful of guys, but I really do think it’s as simple as bunting seeming cheap and hitters having egos. And none of them are very good at bunting and in a high-leverage situation they’re not going to want to try to do anything than what they know how to do best, even if the math isn’t on their side

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: When a hitter needs to deliver a hit, with the game on the line, he’s probably not going to want to put himself in a position where he’s doing something he doesn’t know very well.

9:18	Comment From Dave When will the Jays finally sort out the 2B position?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: In this season I’ve learned that Jonathan Diaz is a baseball player

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: The quick and easy answer is “2015” but I suspect they’ll do something if they manage to hang in the race

9:20	Comment From Dustin Yoenis Cespedes is showing markedly improved plate discipline without sacrificing power. The BABIP is still low, but are we approaching the threshold where we can start believing the “shortened swing” narrative?

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: The contact rate is up something like 10 percentage points. Doesn’t seem to be a team-wide thing, like Blackmon’s strikeout reduction in Colorado. You’re in the clear to be excited. I wouldn’t say the discipline, straight-up, is much better, but the swing seems better able to hit the baseball, and hitting the baseball is what allows Cespedes to be Cespedes

9:22	Comment From GianMarlo Stanfield If I play 155 games I hit __ home runs?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: 45? Get out of that ballpark and get out of that lineup and then we’ll really talk

9:23	Comment From Guest are we witnessing the era of suck?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: As Mariners fans, yes, unquestionably

9:23	Comment From Sean Is Tyler Flowers’ .606 BABIP sustainable?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, on a minefield

9:24	Comment From Jon Thoughts on Eovaldi?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Strikeouts way up. Grounders way up. Walks way down. Velocity unchanged.

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: It’s like he’s trying to be Cliff Lee with another six miles per hour. The contact rate right now doesn’t support the strikeout rate, so that’ll come down most likely, but Eovaldi is really turning himself into something, as baseball just doesn’t really feature hard-throwers who are also strike-throwers

9:26	Comment From Ralph Bonjour, mon ennemi. Is Ackley turning back into a pumpkin after an encouraging start?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: He’s just Dustin Ackley without walks

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Granted, his zone rate is so high walks haven’t really been all that possible, but he’s not a guy who punishes enough strikes at the moment

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Hence the zone rate

9:27	Comment From Tacoby Bellsbury Why don’t more guys bunt to beat the shift? Don’t have the skills? Pride? Or is it worth it to try to beat the shift?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Lots of theories and we discussed a few earlier. I think good hitters just don’t like bunting. Bunting is “giving in” to the defense, and no one with an ego likes to back down from a challenge

9:28	Comment From Xolo Can we make a legitimate case to get Rene Rivera in the All-Star Game for what he’s done for the Padres’ pitching staff?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: No, because of what he’s done for the Padres’ lineup

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: It is funny, though — when Rivera was in the Mariners system, we all used to make fun of him for having a good defensive reputation but absolutely zero other skills. Less than a decade later, turns out he might be one of the best receivers in the world!

9:30	Comment From Lex How much do you believe playing in Marlins park helps Jose Fernandez? He is 11-0 at home and 3-7 on the road

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: ignore it

9:31	Comment From Brendan Is Travis Wood’s success sustainable? Noticed some cutter adjustments.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I’m as surprised as you are. I didn’t even realize the extent to which he was pitching like an All-Star. Let’s just agree that Travis Wood isn’t an ace, and let’s also agree that Travis Wood appears to be elevating his game to some newish level

9:32	Comment From Guest Why do people put so much emphasis on April numbers? Both individually and as a team.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Because they’re the only numbers we have and, psychologically, 2013 feels like a completely different and distant situation

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Same reason people believe in spring-training numbers during spring training

9:34	Comment From (not that) James What’s your take on the decision (whoever made it) to have Jason Heyward bunt with a runner on second, no outs, in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: With BJ Upton on deck! Against Carlos Marmol!

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: From the recap, seems like it was Heyward: “Given the choice to swing away or bunt Schafer to third base, Heyward opted for the latter and popped the bunt attempt back to Marmol.”

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I uh…yeah, no, that’s stupid

9:36	Comment From gregory How good is Jesse Chavez? Will the Ks continue at this rate despite a low swinging strike rate?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: You don’t get to keep that many strikeouts with a league-average contact rate. But Chavez has been a zone-focused pitcher who’s also somehow limited swings at pitches in the zone, essentially giving him free strikes. Seems, off the top of my head, there could be something deceptive about him. In any case, we do have to take seriously the possibility that this journeyman nobody has become a quality starter well after his 30th birthday

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Looks to me like Oakland has pulled off another miracle. Chavez isn’t awesome, but already I think we can conclude he’s better than we expected

9:39	Comment From Ryan Thoughts on Scott Kazmir? Can he keep it up? I know he will not be lights out all season, but do you see 200 innings with 200 K’s and him continuing to limit the walks? Or will he break down like usualy and only throw 100 innings?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Seems to me he is what he was in 2013, and what he was in 2013 was pretty good. I’m not counting on 200 innings but I doubt the A’s are regretting that contract very much

9:40

Comment From Catoblepas
How learn-able is framing? Your article on Jason Castro was awesome, and it seems to indicate that maybe this is a very teachable skill. In future years, will we see the gap between the very good and very bad framers narrow, as every catcher coming up is purposefully taught to receive well?

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: I do think we’ll see a smaller difference between the best and the worst, if only because the worst might no longer be selected for catching in the majors, depending on how highly teams come to value the skill. Not everyone can learn it as easily as Castro has — there are little individual traits that allow one to be good or bad at catching a fast-thrown baseball. Wrist strength and whatnot. But we might never again see another Ryan Doumit, and we could see plenty more cases of guys like Castro and Arencibia stepping forward

9:42	Comment From Steve With Cabrera off to a slow start, is this finally the year that Trout wins MVP? Or will the fact that the Angels are probably just a .500 club lead to some other player on a playoff contender winning it?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: ZiPS currently thinks Trout will finish with a lead of more than 3 WAR over second place in the American League

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t count out, say, an Evan Longoria, but it seems like it’s Trout’s year, and he could benefit from his 2012/2013 award momentum

9:43	Comment From Fonz Freedie Freeman – your new best hitter in baseball?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:44	Comment From Shen Is Leonys Martin a mirror image of Aoki?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Leonys Martin strikes out

9:44	Comment From Guest Where do i donate beer money for you and Matt for your USSM podcasts? They are awesome

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: apparently there’s a donate link here! http://statcorner.com/index…

9:44	Comment From Bick Sale goes from one missed start to DL stint to flexor issue. Looking at a lengthy absence?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I think the White Sox have ruled out any actual damage so it seems like it’s just early-season caution

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Granted, the Rays weren’t concerned about Matt Moore until they were, but I feel okay about this

9:45	Comment From Tacoby Bellsbury Whose red-hot start are you buying most: Mesarocco, Blackmon, Alexei, or Dozier?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I think Blackmon has taken the most demonstrable step forward. Mesoraco could be the best player, though, because of his position

9:48	Comment From Sean What have you made of Jose Abreu lately?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: No meaningful change in the evaluation. He’s an aggressive hitter with the skills to also be an upper-level hitter

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Still running one of the lowest zone rates in baseball. It’s clear that pitchers see little reason to throw him many strikes at the moment but he’s still slugging .538

9:49	Comment From InquiringMind Are you optimistic about Brad Miller turning things around?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: well he won’t be this terrible forever

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: But Dustin Ackley taught me a lesson about getting excited about prospects after their debuts

9:50	Comment From Melvin Which team that’s been in rebuilding mode the last couple years (Astros, Cubs, Marlins, etc.) is closest to being a winning team

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Marlins could have the best 2014, Cubs could have the best 2015. Cubs get an advantage on account of their resources

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Willing to believe we’ve been underrating the Marlins, though

9:52	Comment From baltic fox Dallas Keuchel: according to pitch/fx data, he’s throwing his slider a lot more this year. He already had a good changeup. Now he has two pitches with well above average whiff rates. What are the Astros going to do with him?

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: Seems like Keuchel’s turning himself into a real starting pitcher. A couple years ago he had as many walks as strikeouts. Last year he wasn’t close to that ratio, and this year he’s done even better. Gun to my head, he stays in the rotation, and I ask why a man has a gun to my head over Dallas Keuchel

9:53	Comment From Dan How do you think the Phillies will look to unload some payroll?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: aggressively

9:54	Comment From Edgar Is Anthony Rendon for real?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: not the 142 wRC+ part, but the being pretty good part

9:54	Comment From Kendrick Lamar Who has a better season: Tanaka or Pineda?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka, who is amazing

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Pineda though has the better story

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Just now learned Oscar Taveras is having another ankle issue, this time in the other one…

9:56	Comment From baltic fox Carlos Santana is apparently nursing a groin pull. Given his performance to date, why don’t the Indians do the sensible thing and put him on the 15 day DL? The season is early…

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Santana says he’s fine

9:56	Comment From aharner Buy or sell Andrew Cashner as a Max Scherzer-type breakout this year? Maybe next year is a more reasonable expectation?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: 86% contact rate allowed

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: career mark of 80%

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not buying in yet. I mean, the talent is clearly there, but I’m not yet buying his breakout

9:57	Comment From TJ Think Erasmo Ramirez sticks in the rotation? He’s been hard to watch…

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I assume he goes to the minors or the disabled list as soon as the Mariners have literally any other starting pitcher available

9:58	Comment From Tacoby Bellsbury Why are the Mets wasting time with guys like Valverde, Farnsworth, Abreu, Eric Young Jr. when they clearly aren’t a contender? Are they afraid their fans can’t stomach a true rebuild?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: For a variety of reasons sometimes you want to keep prospects in the minors in April. And there is value in veteran stopgaps that, in theory, keep a big-league team out of contention from embarrassment

9:59	Comment From Yaaaaaar! When do you think Gregory Polanco will be up in light of Snider/Tabata sucking and the Pirates needing another good bat?