Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/29/16

April 29, 2016

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Well dammit friends

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s just baseball chat

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Hello

9:10	Guest: Jeff, OMG did you fix Chris Archer???

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Chris Archer didn’t need very much fixing, which helps

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: It’s like trying to fix David Price

9:11	Guest: 1. Who has more power: Sano or Park?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I have to imagine Sano is one of the very strongest hitters in all of baseball. Park’s good, but Sano is a freak

9:12	GDUBSS: With Dee Gordon suspended for 80 games, how do you see the Marlins 2nd base situation playing out? Dietrich and Rojas in a platoon? How many wins do you think this will cost the marlins over those 80 games?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I’d guess mostly Dietrich. And I’d guess about a win and a half? There’s something to be said for all the ways in which Gordon can impact a game, but there’s also something to be said for Dietrich’s ability to hit a dinger

9:14	JD: Is Shelby Miller toast as a front of the rotation arm?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Definitely not. Go back through his 2014 game log. In April, he had 21 walks and 26 strikeouts, plus seven home runs

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: He was bad in August. Over six starts between June and July, he had as many walks as strikeouts, and an ERA over 6

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Miller clearly isn’t right, but he’s no less capable than he was a month ago

9:17

j6takish: Jeff, I’ve had to take medication for the past week and one of the side effects is really weird/detailed dreams. I had a dream that I thought of a really good fangraphs chat question. I was really excited waking up because I had remembered the question from my dream. I thought about it for a few minutes upon waking and I realized it was really stupid and didn’t even make any sense… but will you answer it anyway? Would you play for the Braves if you had to a sign a 10 year league minimum contract and you also had to live in a dorm room the entire time?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I’m less likely to say yes now than I would’ve been 10 years ago. In large part because the Braves would realize I’m not good and then they’d drop me

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Although if they’d drop me, then I’d be guaranteed all that money…

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll take it!

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Say hello to your new Braves southpaw! I could definitely step in for Bud Norris

9:19	Kvn: Is Collin McHugh this year’s Rick Porcello? You keep waiting for him to fix it and he just never does?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: The last four times out, he has three walks and 17 strikeouts. It’ll take a while for his numbers to recover from that miserable first start. But McHugh should be okay. It’s worth remembering he wasn’t nearly as good last year as the year before

9:20	CameronDaClub: Harvey erase any/all concern with that last start?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not all gone — it was the Reds — but Harvey does seem mostly back on track. I’m a lot less worried than I was a week and a half ago

9:23	Yusuf : Hey Jeff, Michael Conforto is off to a great start–tops the league in exit velocity, getting on base, etc. After roughly a half-season of major league plate appearances who would you say is an accurate comp for him?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: This one took me a few minutes because my mind went blank but then it kept trying to say Alex Gordon? It’s not a perfect comp, because Gordon has better defense and Conforto might have more power, but that seems like the right general area

9:26	Gabriel: About T. Walker, the difference in pitch selection is attributed to Ianetta or to the new coaching staff?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the specific answer to this, but I would assume it’s all collaborative. And mostly about Walker and his catchers. And of course, Walker has the final say. He feels comfortable enough with his secondary weapons, and so he’s featuring them more

9:27	Shower Thoughts: What do you see as the top three Union and League considerations going into the CBA discussions this year?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: Better question for Dave because this is more his wheelhouse than mine. League’ll push for an international draft. There’ll be talk about harsher PED suspensions. Certain owners clearly want to try to reduce any incentives to lose. Players will try to raise the league-minimum salary. They could/should make some changes to the rules to quit it with service-time manipulation

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Oh, and the QO. Lots of talk about the QO

9:29	Impotent Rage: DEE GORDON!

9:29

Erik: Does Dee Gordon’s suspension hint at possibly more widespread PED use in baseball than we thought? As in, if even 8-career-HRs-Gordon sees a benefit from PEDs and thinks he can get away with it, might we fear that players who fit the more conventional steroid-user profile are using more than we thought?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: This one is really obnoxious. I mean, look — I personally don’t care too much about PEDs. The game is entertainment. In theory I feel like players can do what they want to do, within reason. But this does make for a lopsided landscape, hurting other players, and just as bad, Gordon ruined everything because now literally no one is safe. No one is safe from speculation. Gordon is the complete opposite of the typical steroid profile. Which means everybody is in play

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Jake Arrieta? Steroids. Dee Gordon? Steroids. Wade Davis? Steroids. Taijuan Walker? Steroids. Matt Carpenter? Steroids. Kenta Maeda? Steroids. Ichiro? Probably steroids

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: It can all get so ridiculous, and we can’t say anything, because Gordon getting busted is ridiculous. This is horrible MLB PR

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Like it or not, baseball is the sport people think has the problem. Football has the actual problem — several of the actual problems — but baseball is the steroid laughingstock in popular culture. And that shit is unkillable, because of nonsense like this

9:34

Nicholas : Hey Jeff, I really enjoyed reading your article about Taijuan Walker. I wrote a community blog the other day looking at Walker’s improvement, so it was really cool to see what you wrote! Do you have any writing and/or research tips that could help me write better articles? That was my first one that I have done, but I have ideas for more.

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: When doing a deep dive on a player, I just to just go exploring. Look at stat after stat after stat and see what speaks to me. Sometimes I’ll know what to look for going in, but with Walker, it was basically: “All right, what’s happening? How might I be able to explain Walker’s ascent?” I probably spent four hours just poking around different places? And then like 45 minutes doing actual writing. The exploration is fun. Exhausting, sometimes, but I think it’s possible to learn something new every single time you do an investigation

9:38	Josh: How impressed have you been with Aaron Nola? What type of ceiling does he have at this point?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: I like Nola quite a bit. He always seemed like a pretty safe major leaguer, and he’s clearly pitching with a lot of confidence, coming right after the strike zone. He’s not the only Phillies pitcher doing that, and nothing has happened to slow them down. I think Nola still needs to be able to give lefties another look, but pitcher ceilings are hard to discuss because elite levels can turn out accessible to almost anyone. Nola, right now, is good. Which means he has the ability to be great. Probably won’t be, but there’s no harm in hoping

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I’m currently in a phase where I like to see righties throwing lefties inside more often. Nola could stand to do that

9:42	Matt: Obgliatory question about how worried I should be about Wainright. (Not: it is not how worried, and not if I should be worried…)

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: He has yet to throw swing-and-miss stuff, which is odd, because his general stuff is intact. Pitches are drifting on him and he’s having some trouble getting that familiar finish. I don’t think he’s hurt, so with this kind of stuff Wainwright earns the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn’t sit back and wait for him to be an ace again. I could see him working out kinks to pitch like a No. 2

9:45	Dan: Do you have any faith that Kazmir and the shark will turn it around this year?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Samardzija seems okay. Kazmir just had a good enough start against the Marlins

9:46	2-D: If the Rockies had a rotation of Kershaw/Arrieta/Price/Scherzer/Sale what kind of season would they have?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: A good one

9:46	philosofool: Proposed rule: if a pitcher makes two consecutive pick off moves and the runner safely returns to base standing on both of them, the runner advances a base. Does this rule make baseball more fun to watch?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I think I like it!

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t thought it all the way through, but I think I like it

9:47	Derek: Jeff can you answer two questions for me? 1) I’m going to Asheville to Nashville on a road trip with a date, what’s an ideal weekend camping site with hiking in the area? 2) Have you seen anyone change their game as much as Odubbel Hererra has in one off-season? Dude looks like a gamer.

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: I’m afraid I’ve never camped or backpacked back east, so I can’t help you there. That’s a ballsy date. As for Herrera, it’s the strangest thing. Clearly, he’s making a conscious effort. Clearly, his heart is in the right place, and he’s made an improvement. But I don’t know why pitchers aren’t throwing him more strikes. He’s getting first-pitch strikes literally less than half the time. Why? Why on earth? It doesn’t make sense, but consider this the latest reminder that, on average, pitchers are surprisingly bad at control

9:50	Erik: The Phillies have elevated their playoff odds to 0.1%! Would you take the over or the under on that? And if they’re 2 games over .500 at the All-Star Break, do they make any win-now moves, or stick to the slow, patient script?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: They’re too smart to do anything short-sighted. No blockbusters. In theory I could see them add a mid-tier starter or a role player, but they know what they’re building. I’d take the over on those odds, because of the pitching, but the Phillies also have a -19 run differential. The Twins are at -20

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I love love love that the Phillies are 12-10, but they probably shouldn’t have that record

9:52	Robert: % chance everyone in the AL West finishes 81-81

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Disappointingly low

9:52	mtsw: While the Dee Gordon thing sucks, I have to admit I’m pleasantly surprised how few of the hot takes blame the whole thing on Barry Bonds. What’s the worst take on this you’ve seen so far?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: You can pretty much always identify what’s going to be a bad take from the headline. Once you do that, why read the actual article?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I genuinely can’t remember the last time I read a baseball article I’d say was bad or stupid. Nothing to gain from it

9:54	Kvn: Is it crazy to imagine Manny Machado leading the O’s in HR’s this season?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not too crazy. He just hit 35. A few years ago, Chris Davis hit 26. So you just need Machado staying on path, and you need Davis having another weird down year. Which would be…bad…for the Orioles, but, you asked!

9:56	Chuck : I realize it is basically impossible to know how for real Rich Hill is, but any thoughts on his Kershawesque stretch? August’s post from earlier this week on his past 9 starts was pretty eye opening.