Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/8/16

April 8, 2016

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s baseball chat

9:10	Ryan: Just as high RBI and save totals are a product of opportunity, is it fair to say that great defensive metrics have a lot to do with difficult play opportunity?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: It’s difficult to say the extent, but, yeah. Opportunity is definitely a factor. As one example, take a guy who robs four or five home runs in a season. Is that something he’s particularly good at, or did he just get lucky to have the chances? That can swing several runs

9:10	Art Vandelay: looks at search bar Glad I’m not the only one who had no idea who Ross Stripling was before today.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: The one Dodgers depth candidate literally everyone ignored when listing them off in March

9:11	Joe: I know, intellectually, that Joey Rickard isn’t going to win ROY. But couldn’t we also say that he’s definitely going to ROY?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It works to his benefit that he’s on the roster from Day 1. But he’s going to have to, I don’t know, steal an awful lot of bases or something in order to stand out. And he might yet lose a few hundred plate appearances to Kim if he starts showing anything

9:13	mtsw: They’ll score a run eventually, but will the Padres end the year with the worst park-adjusted offense in MLB?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies are pretty damn bad.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: The thing that gives the Padres a shot: the Phillies aren’t moving Franco, and the Braves aren’t moving Freeman. The Padres might move Norris and Kemp.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: So the Padres’ offense down the stretch could be terrrrrrrrrrrrrible

9:14

TF Fredrik: With Strasburg’s slider, it has to be a confidence or comfort issue on why he was throwing it/has tinkered with it before but scrapped it, and now this year he finally feels good about grip, command, movement on it, right? This is the kind of unknowable info regular fans like us wish we had more insight on. From a selfish pitcher dork perspective, feel like this is right in wheel house for the beaters to be reporting on. Or maybe they do but Stras wanted to keep it a secret.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It was kind of funny that Strasburg denied doing anything. Maybe he just misunderstood the question, I don’t know, but there’s no arguing with the information we have these days. He was very obviously throwing a pitch he hasn’t thrown a lot before

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Now, he might still scrap it again. He’s done it twice before, and that’s why we need to check to see if this becomes a pattern. If it does, I expect that someone will be on the case. Maybe Adam Kilgore. They’ll talk about it once it’s clear it’s going to be a real thing. I think it’s going to be.

9:16	Josh: What type of upside do you see for Eugenio Suarez this year? 20 HR a possibility?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I think he only gets to 20 if he gets lucky with some wall-scrapers. I like him fine as something like an average player, but he’s not particularly powerful

9:17	Fan9: When will the Padres score a run?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: They’re in Colorado this afternoon, so I’ll predict three runs in the first inning

9:17	Guest: if kris bryant and carlos correa were hypothetically on the same team, thats enough for a mike trout trade, right?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: That’s too much for a Mike Trout trade

9:18	Guest: the vegas over/under on the dbacks win total didn’t budge after the pollock news. dont you find that strange?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: If true, that’s weird. I haven’t been checking but losing Pollock for even as few as, say, four months should cost them at least 2-3 wins

9:19	Dustin: Nate Eovaldi’s slider averaged 90.3 yesterday, up from the mid 80’s in years past. Classification issue, or a change to his arsenal?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Let me do a quick check…

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Yep, looks like Eovaldi has basically shelved the slower slider for something more like a cutter

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Similar to the Strasburg thing, except that Strasburg didn’t throw a slider much last year. Eovaldi wants a pitch he can bust inside to lefties

9:23	Phillies: Will we finish with more than 70 wins?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Unless you’re counting spring training?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Then you’d just need 56 in the regular season. Manageable

9:23	Guest: are the astros the safest bet for the playoffs the AL has to offer?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I believe so

9:25	jtt: Why isn’t Eovaldi better?

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: People get blinded by the fastball velocity and ignore that the spin isn’t special. It’s hard, but it’s still hittable, somewhere in between a four-seam and a two-seam in a way. So it’s a pitch you can put in play, and it’s a pitch you can also count on seeing before the splitter comes out with two strikes

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I still like Eovaldi fine but the velocity makes people think he should be a Cy Young candidate

9:27	Bork: Is the next start basically make or break for the Aaron Sanchez hype train?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: No? Even if it’s bad, he was so good the first time around people can ignore it. Sanchez deserves the half-season

9:27	Guest: pick to win the stanley cup?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: not Ottawa

9:27	dgrussel: Joey Rickard got a curtain call last night. I blame you, Jeff for this ridiculousness.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t start this. I wrote about him when he was already on the rise. And I sure as shit didn’t call him hitting a home run

9:28	mtsw: Rockies home opener today. Haven’t seen much discussion of changes to the fences in Coors Field. Some of the fences are growing 8 feet higher. Presumably this will lead to fewer HR and more extra base hits. Will that help or hurt the Rockies given how their roster is constructed?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/changes-are-coming-to-coors-field/

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: It’s barely going to make a difference

9:29	Matt: Obviously Story won’t hit 200+ HRs, but is that power for real? Was he thought of as a power guy?

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: He’s been thought of as a guy with power, not as a power guy. He needs that power given how often he puts the ball in the air. I’ll be real interested to see where he tops out in terms of batted-ball speed — so far he’s peaked at 112, in spring training. With how high he hits the ball, anything at 100+ gives him a shot to go over the fence

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: If Story has improved his strength/bat speed by, say, 5%, that’s huge. Then he’d hit 30 homers every season

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be a lower-BABIP guy (adjusted for Coors), but he’ll hit his dingers

9:33	Josh: Better chance to reach 30 HR this year: Randal Grichuk, Byung Ho Park, or Jonathan Schoop?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say Grichuk by a hair over Park

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t doubt Park’s power but I doubt Grichuk’s power even less

9:34	Guest: how much investing to you do? does fangraphs have a 401k for you guys or do you set up your own IRA? do you just pad savings with spare money? i ask because i find you intelligent and respect your opinion on life decisions

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Going to do more investing but I’ve had a Roth IRA for a while. FG doesn’t have a 401k. Vox Media didn’t either when I worked there but they did provide stock options. Dave is much more financially responsible. One day I’ll be better about listening to him

9:36	Vasil v : I’m trying to decide between zack cosart and Chris couglan for my middle infield. Who do you see having a better year. on base, ops league.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t believe I’m actually answering a fantasy question but Coghlan

9:36	Brian: does alex wood last the year in the Dodger’s rotation?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: The fact that he was on the outside looking in in early spring training doesn’t bode well. At some point they’re going to have a lot of healthy pitchers. But I figure he’ll make 20+ starts. On just about any other team, he’d be a lock

9:39	Astros Fan: Should Astros fans be worried about Giles? He got shelled all spring and hes looked really bad now in 2 real games. Slider velocity is down as well.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not worried yet. Conditions haven’t been very good in New York in the early going and the Teixeira home run was a joke

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Give him a month and re-evaluate

9:41

Erik: What’s the point of Charlie Morton? Isn’t the best case scenario that he does well enough to be flipped for a low-level lottery ticket who isn’t likely to be better than a fifth starter? But given that the Phillies already gave up a prospect like that to get him, and that he’s blocking a player of that level at AAA from getting a shot, how could the Phillies possibly come out ahead?

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies need people to pitch. Their pitching is terrible. You might’ve noticed Jeremy Hellickson starting on opening day. Good pitchers will develop in time, but pitchers need to be available to take the mound now, and the best-case scenario is that Morton does well enough to move in July. Then the Phillies can get a prospect or two, after having gotten three or four months of half-decent pitching. Maybe it doesn’t work, but they’re unlikely to miss David Whitehead

9:42	Guest: Do you enjoy Las Vegas?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: but I enjoy Red Rocks

9:43	JCNY: ROS: Story or Russell?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Russell by a little, because of his defense

9:44	Kvn: They’re chanting Joey Rickard’s name during almost every PA in Baltimore. If he keeps hitting he might reach messianic levels of hometown support.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: All those dinger-hitters in the order and the crowd goes crazy for the slap-hitting Rule 5er. It’s so sports

9:45	Burts_beads: Do you think we’re at a point where sabermetrics is popular/well-known enough that many players are starting to take metrics into account and adjusting their approach based on them?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: Some of them. Some of them directly, and some of them through coaches/advisors. One real benefit is that right now players can get direct and immediate feedback. Like, a pitcher can throw a start and then quickly go check out his PITCHf/x afterward. Couldn’t do that before. So it helps. Many players still prefer to go about their business without cluttering their minds, but for those who are inquisitive and adaptable, the information is out there

9:47	Gary Gorr: Welcome to Canada. How did you enjoy Pitch Talks

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I’m…not…part of that?

9:47	Guest: I know you live in Portland but do you know Seattle well enough to give me suggestions of things for my wife and i to do on a trip there? The stuff listed on TripAdvisor seems…. underwhelming

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I just want to tell you to get out of the city and visit Mt Rainier. Go to Mt Rainier!

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The honest answer is no, I don’t know Seattle well enough. But you should definitely consider a ballgame. Safeco is wonderful. Also, Mt Rainier

9:48	Zorak: The most fascinating part of the 2016 season will be the great Socrates vs Adonis vs Arquimedes debate.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: #ImWithSocrates

9:48	Gary Gorr: Opps, wrong guy

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: we’re all friends here

9:50	Hipster Mecca: If you’re facing Taijuan Walker, do you just sit on the fastball and wait for it to inevitably creep into the center of the zone? The man definitely needs another pitch, no?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I’d go out hunting a fastball in the upper half. I’d basically eliminate the curve and split-change until there were two strikes

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Walker started messing around with a slider in spring training to replace his cutter, and that could turn into a pitch to watch, but I wouldn’t yet be afraid of it. Too inexperienced

9:51	Sean: SSS, but one of the current leaders (three) in DRS? Chris Owings in CF. And by the eyeball test, he’s actually looked pretty good out there. Who knew!?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Decent shortstops can play anywhere, turns out

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Hanley Ramirez can’t, but Hanley Ramirez wasn’t a decent shortstop

9:53

TF Fredrik: There are sooo many stats to look at and evaluations to read on players. I have been trying to think of a shorter general checklist to go thru for major leaguers to think about where they are at any given moment. For a basis to look at, what do you think of for hitters (in no particular order): Production (hitting, baserunning, defense), Projection, Health, & Pedigree. For pitchers: Stuff, Stats, Health, Projection, Pedigree?

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: I think you look at results, then you look at projections, then you look at *recent* results to see if there might be any reason to think the projection could be off. Health is always a factor but it’s hard to pin down given the amount of randomness. I worry less and less about pedigree as a player gains experience in the majors

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: The real problem with general checklists is that each player is an individual. Each player is also constantly trying to tweak his own game, and each player has his own strengths and weaknesses. It’s why I do so many deep dives into individuals — there’s so much to study for every single guy.

9:55	Doc: Could the Jays finish with a top 5 rotation? Or is that too optimistic?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: They could, but, yes, too optimistic to think it’s probable

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Even if Sanchez turns out really good, he’s not lasting the year in the rotation because of his innings

9:55	Cecil Fielder: when will player pages be updated with current season data?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: It’s in there. It’s just underneath the projections part

9:56	Guest: Given his contract, what would Greinkes trade value be?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Very low. Arizona outbid the competition

9:57	Matt: Are we all just living in Joey Rickard’s world?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: From Joey Rickard’s perspective, yes

9:57

Ronnie: New Stat Suggestion. wOBAdif, which would essentially be the difference in a hitter’s wOBA against opposite versus same handed pitchers. Seems like it’d be easy to compute and would give a good quick/dirty proxy to measure consistency of production against different handed pitchers. Same could also be done for pitchers but for wOBA allowed instead.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: We probably should make it easier to see a player’s platoon splits. I mean, it’s simple enough to click on the splits page, but it feels like a thing that would be trivial to include on the main player pages

9:58	Jaack: Which is more likely to exist in reality: the Cubs’ curse or Tim Lincecum’s showcase?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Lincecum’s showcase! But not because I believe in it. More because I don’t not believe in it

9:59	Erik: Dave Cameron suggested in the podcast today that MLB might “do something” about the rapid increase in pitcher velocity. How likely do think that will be, and what changes would be most likely?