Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/18/18

May 18, 2018

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06	Jack: Is C.J. Cron for real?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve always liked Cron as an obvious source of power. There were hints of some development that got hidden in his “down” 2017; the Rays jumped on the chance to land some upside

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: That being said, he’s neither a premium defender nor a premium pitch-taker, so he’s limited in how valuable he can become. I think, at the time, it made enough sense to basically swap Dickerson for Cron, but not because Cron was on the verge of becoming a four-win player or anything

9:09	greg: What kind of trade value does Scooter Gennett have?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Low!

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: It’s good to be a home-run hitter, and teams like to acquire home-run hitters, but he doesn’t do a whole lot else. And I’m sure there are still teams out there who remain skeptical of the Gennett breakout

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: If the Reds sell him as a guy who can conceivably cover four or five positions, that’s something, but Gennett isn’t a good defender at any of them

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Brewers would like to have him back, but you’re not looking at a premium prospect exchange

9:12	James: Justin Verlander

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact, building off of that:

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Last year the Indians set the all-time record with 31.7 pitching WAR

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: This year the Astros are on pace for 37.8

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: They’re on pace to beat the record by 19%

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: lol

9:13	Q-Ball: Who do you think emerges out of the competitive NL Central?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Still think Cubs

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: But I’m absolutely delighted it remains this tight

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals are interesting because they’re good despite being let down by so many of their good players

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: The Brewers are interesting because they’re good despite an underwhelming starting rotation

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: And the Pirates are interesting because what!

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: If the Pirates were to actually pull this off, I don’t know how the front office couldn’t spend the entire next offseason telling people “I told you so”

9:17

Ross: Have you been watching the hockey playoffs at all and do you have any rooting interest or did the Sens cause you tune out hockey in like December? I want a Caps-Knights Final, because I really want Ovechkin to win a Cup, and also because I’m interested to see how Golden Knights superfan Bryce Harper will handle it if they’re playing Washington’s hockey team in the Stanley Cup Final

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: New York Yankees @Yankees #PinstripePride 5 Oct 2017

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Close friend of mine here is a huge Caps fan so I’m kind of pulling for them because I’m pulling for him. But I don’t have a strong pull in any direction. Just happy to not see the Penguins, Bruins, or Leafs

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly though one of the things about hockey is that it’s such an emotional sport that when you cheer for one team, you find reasons to hate literally everyone else!

9:19	aw: I’m wondering if your position on Aaron Sanchez as a starter pre-2016 breakout was right. That 5.19 BB/9 isn’t inspiring confidence he’ll get back to his 2016 level of success…

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Sanchez is weird — he appears to have a quality changeup, and his contact rate is by far the lowest it’s ever been. Yet he has a K-BB% of 5%

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: And this is pretty easily traceable

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Sanchez vs. righties is no worse

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Sanchez vs. lefties: .441 OBP, .478 SLG

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: 20 walks, 14 strikeouts

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not because of the changeup. The changeup has actually gotten strikes! But almost literally half of Sanchez’s fastballs to lefties have been balls

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: He hasn’t been down in the zone like he used to be, and for a guy with such a premium sinker, that’s not great

9:26	Q-Ball: Toast, or NOT Toast: Chris Davis, Jason Kipnis, Ian Desmond

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact about Chris Davis: he currently has the same average exit velocity as Juan Lagares!

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I think Davis is done being good, I think Kipnis will be salvageable, and I think Desmond is a catastrophe

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: So far, in return for the Rockies’ $70-million investment, Ian Desmond has provided them with -2.0 WAR

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I know he’s forever attempting mechanical tweaks, and I know the turnaround might be just around the corner, but there’s not one single positive indicator anywhere in his profile

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: He doesn’t deserve to be in the majors

9:29	Panik Button: Are the Brewers a better offensive team with Choi being called up? I am very ready to hop on the Choi bandwagon

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I think there are teams in the major leagues with worse starting first basemen than Ji-Man Choi

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: And Choi is like the Brewers’ third-stringer

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: All he’s ever done is abuse Triple-A, with a whole lot of walks. He’s legit, but I don’t know how much he’ll get to actually play with Milwaukee

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: My kingdom for a world where Ji-Man Choi and Jabari Blash get 500 at-bats with a major-league team

9:31	Vegan Man!: 3 HR in 4 days for Olson. Signs of him turning it around, or just a hot streak? Thanks!

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I think this is exactly what a player like Olson is. He’ll alternate cold spells with home-run streaks, and then you look up five months into the season and he has a bunch of strikeouts and a 125 wRC+

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: That’s how it goes for guys whose value comes almost exclusively from homers. Even the best home-run hitters might average about two a week. They’re infrequent, and they have a tendency to cluster

9:33	Tim: Mike Trout is 0 for his last 19. What’s going on? Is the world about to blow up?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I like how he’s hitless over 22 plate appearances and his OBP is .318

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I also feel for Sam Miller, who just published his article about how Trout is on pace for an all-time season

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Timing is everything in this ridiculous industry

9:36	Dan: Hey Jeff, thanks for chatting! Do you know whether pitch tracking tools (statcast) adjust the strike zone based on the height of the batter? If not, does this make stats like Z-swing and O-swing unreliable for very tall or very short hitters?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: They are individually adjusted. Now, you could question how well they’re adjusted, but Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve definitely have different Trackman zones

9:37	The Decadent Moose:

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Where do you think they come from

9:38	Vegan Man!: Will Clint Frazier take someone’s job in the NYY OF (Gardner or Hicks)? Thanks!

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Doubt it, at least in the short-term

9:39	Sad Texas: So Ken Rosenthal reporting that the Rangers “are open for business” listing Cole Hamels as the main movable piece. Does he even have any trade value left?!

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Hamels is actually running his highest strikeout rate since 2006

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Now, he’s also walking some guys and yielding hard contact, but I think a team in contention could talk itself into giving Hamels a shot

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: He has his numbers while facing almost exclusively good offensive teams. He’s still got something in the tank

9:41	John: Should the Twins make a play for Ramos or Lucroy?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know why either would be available right now, with the Rays and A’s both right around .500

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Both those teams have better records than the Twins do!

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: My dream is that the Twins give an opportunity to Willians Astudillo but I know that’s far-fetched

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll probably do something like trade for Caleb Joseph and leave Mitch Garver as the No. 1

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Garver, to his credit, has real offensive potential

9:45	Zonk: Other than the Dodgers of course, what team do you feel has been most disappointing? Aside from the Braves, what team has been the most pleasant surprise?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve been disappointed by the White Sox

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Not by all of them, of course, but the pitching is terrible

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Their current leaders in pitching WAR are James Shields, Bruce Rondon, and Aaron Bummer

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Pirates and Phillies both count as pleasant surprises. Pirates more so

9:48	Kyle Hendricks: Hey Jeff! Throughout my career (minors and majors) my era has always been better than my peripherals. Am I just lucky or is there more to it?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Hendricks has two things: a proven ability to generate soft contact, and a proven ability to pitch in front of one of the best team defenses in baseball

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Since 2014, Hendricks has a top-15 hard-hit rate, by which I mean, his rate ranks 15th-lowest among qualified pitchers

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs have also ranked third in baseball in DRS and fourth in baseball in UZR

9:51	James: who are the Angels starting 6 for 2019? Who is playing 2B and 3B?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine even the Angels couldn’t tell you

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, Cozart will occupy one of those infield positions

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The rotation should include, at least, Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, and Barria

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Ramirez will be under team control. Tropeano is around. And so on

9:54

YKnotDisco?!: Can they do picture in picture for all the commercials during half innings (do they do this for the WS?)? Could it make a viewer less likely to change the channel?

And, although, I think they already do this some of the time: They can show commercial(s) during long breaks of action, too. Like a play that is challenged, a trainer checking on an injured player…

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be surprised at all if we saw more of this. Instead of going away between innings, you do split-screen. Of course, only one of the screen halves can get the audio priority, so, it’s not like this is simple. But it’s something for baseball to try to figure out

9:56

Jake: I don’t really understand why the Mariners are going to briefly interrupt Dee Gordon’s transition to center field just so he can fill in at second base for Cano for a few months. Wouldn’t he be better served being left in center and continuing to learn the position, assuming the Mariners plan to move him back there once Cano returns? I feel like the thing that would make the most sense would be to pick up a cheap but useful rental in a guy like Hechavarria (no way they’ll be in the Machado market), move Segura to second base for now and leave Gordon in center

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t love this either, but I guess the Mariners feel like they’re more able to replace an outfielder than a second baseman internally. Which just means they like Guillermo Heredia more than they like Gordon Beckham

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: That much is easily defensible. But they still need to get an outfielder now because their organizational depth completely sucks

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: And like you said, this just interferes with Gordon’s defensive development in the outfield. It’s all just team scrambling

9:58	THE Average Sports Fan: How do you feel about Jeter’s comments?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I feel confident about my personal news curation because I don’t have any idea what you’re referring to