Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/22/15

May 22, 2015

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Welp, no good excuse today

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Literally slept through my alarm for the first time in years!

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: So just think, this could’ve started even later

9:19	Comment From Bret How long can Anthony Gose sustain this BABIP?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: You mean the BABIP that starts with a 4 and where the 4 is followed by a 6?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I can buy him as a high-BABIP type — I can’t buy him as Ichiro on line-drive steroids.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Gose, interestingly, is also at a career-low hard-hit rate, which I didn’t expect. He hasn’t popped up, and I like his new swing, but ultimately he’s still an ordinary baseball player who has to follow ordinary rules

9:22	Comment From Josh G So, Clay Buchholz. Has he figured things out?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Not gonna be convinced by a single dominant start against the Mariners, but it would be easy to say you should just look at his peripherals and believe in the strikeouts

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: We always tie ourselves in knots trying to reconcile big strikeouts and big runs, but at the end of the day, the strikeouts usually win that battle

9:24	Comment From Mark What kind of black magic have Chris Bosio and Jason Hammel tapped into?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s really any different from what he’s been in the recent past when he’s been going well. But he is more or less maximizing his skillset in Chicago, and it’s hard not to love six walks in eight starts

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: He’s getting caught the best he’s ever gotten caught, so that’s a factor here

9:26	Comment From mtsw Do we live in a world where Ubaldo Jimenez is the Orioles’ best pitcher?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Just like they’re paying for!

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The interesting thing about Ubaldo is that hitters just don’t try to swing against him. It’s almost like they don’t believe he’s going to throw strikes. So far, he’s actually thrown strikes, which is the damnedest thing

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: He’s similar now to what he was toward the end in Cleveland. Very positive sign, for a guy most fans didn’t want to see near the rotation in spring

9:28	Comment From Reginald Denton III What do you expect to see from Cole v. Thor tonight? Worth watching?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Who would argue that isn’t worth watching?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Think about the alternatives. One of them has Sean O’Sullivan in it. One of them has Colby Lewis in it. One has Marco Estrada, one has Alfredo Simon…

9:30	Comment From MotorboatJones Assuming you don’t have access to FIP/ERA related metrics, what should a newb look at when evaluating pitchers?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Walks and strikeouts get you pretty far on their own

9:31	Comment From mike t Does bob melvin keep his job at the end of the season?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Right now the answer would be yes, but we’ll see how much worse things get in the coming months. I think Beane would be reluctant to put this on the field manager

9:32	Comment From Mike Honcho Thoughts on Kolten Wong?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Selective pull power. It works for certain lefties. Kyle Seager comes to mind. He’s a real player at this point

9:35	Comment From Gregory Polanco will I ever be a league average hitter Jeff? Should the pirates send me to AAA and have Harrison be the right fielder? I suck this year 🙁

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: I imagine the Pirates would say you don’t have a lot left to learn in the minor leagues. You’ve showed borderline acceptable skills against righties — you’re just been a wreck against same-handed pitchers. Polanco should play a little less, but he wouldn’t be the first excellent prospect to struggle for his first several hundred plate appearances

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not the most encouraging thing in the world to see a higher pull rate but no more power

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for hiccup, having connection issues

9:39	Comment From Bartolo Colon Should I be concerned about walking 2 batters in my game against the Cards? Also did you see that I was a base-runner in that game and made it all the way to 3rd!?!

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: You’ve scored four runs in your life! Three of them last season

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Colon has never gone first to third on a single

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Never first to home on a double

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Never second to home on a single

9:41	Comment From S Wilin Rosario’s bat has come to life since moving to 1B/DH (in AL parks). What’s his value like for AL teams? Should the Rockies be trying to move him right away?

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: Not going to be a market right away — most teams out there aren’t yet really interested in trading. Rosario’s value is modest. Teams aren’t going to love him as a defender, and they know it’s kind of a boom-or-bust offensive strategy. Teams always say nice things about right-handed power but this isn’t a tremendous organizational asset

9:42	Comment From Catoblepas What kind of leash do you give Mike Napoli? He’s looked reaaaaal bad, but it’s also been less than 150 PAs

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I think Dave was supposed to write about this. Maybe he still is? Said as much the other day

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Specifically because it’s hard to imagine why he’d suddenly be so much worse, I’d give Napoli the benefit of the doubt. But I’d start by giving him one less start a week, and then progressing from there if he doesn’t improve

9:45	Comment From Josh G Addison Russell’s plate discipline has really improved over the last two weeks. Do you think he can continue to make strides this year or will he just be very inconsistent from week to week?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: Oh, he’ll be inconsistent. You have to expect inconsistency from 21-year-olds in their first exposure to the major leagues. Even the better version of Russell hasn’t made an outstanding amount of contact, so he’s still figuring things out. They didn’t even really give him a chance to figure out Triple-A. It’ll be a decent season for Russell, but it won’t be close to what he could and should be at his peak

9:47

Comment From Some Person From Some Place
So, not only does this Mariners team just feel so…Mariners yet again this year, but they and the rest of the AL West are just that fantastic example of baseball being hilariously good at making preseason predictions look silly. And, in another month, they’ll make happy/sad fans look silly again! Baseball is so great! For real though Cano is not having a great season so far.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: At least we basically nailed the Rangers

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: What’s happening in the AL West is probably good for baseball — weird-ass surprises are good for baseball — but it’s obviously hard to watch this Mariners team and feel like you want to keep watching it.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Cano looks gross. Remember the alleged Nelson Cruz protection element?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think Cano himself said “I’ve never seen so many hittable fastballs!” Well he’s sure as shit not doing anything with them

9:51	Comment From _David_ What would Ketel Marte have to show to change your mind? He currently has an .839 OPS and a 1:1 K/BB in the PCL.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: He’s never going to hit and the organization has questions about his defensive reliability. Assuming the defense shores up, he can be something like an average shortstop, but you don’t get far when you don’t have any power

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Might not be markedly worse than Chris Taylor, but Chris Taylor isn’t a very good player

9:53	Comment From Tommy Is Devon Travis 4 real?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The awesome April version or the miserable May version?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Ugh, sorry, internet crashed again. This is the worst chat of my life

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Travis is a legitimately good player. He’s not, on true talent, the best hitter in the Blue Jays lineup

9:55	Comment From Ed You slept until 9AM? How old are you? Seventeen? Get to bed early like the rest of us geezers who work for a living.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I went to a concert last night, then came home to edit the community blog and plan a weekend backpack. I don’t make a habit of sleeping through alarms but these were unusual circumstances!

9:56	Comment From alex What’s wrong with Robinson Cano?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: Here’s what we can figure — he’s presumably not in the stage of his career where he’s getting better. He’s also probably moved on from the nice flat plateau. So we have a star player in decline. Also, a star player who has drawn criticism before for just not looking like he’s trying. Because he plays so smoothly, it looks bad to the eye when it isn’t working

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine why Cano would’ve fallen off of a cliff. He had a rough start just last year. A matter of making one or two swing adjustments, that he’s been able to make before. But these are bad signs when you’re not even 20% through a 10-year contract

9:58	Comment From Prich How much gutting do you think the Brewers should do… will end up doing?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: According to reports, Lucroy is off the table. Now, I don’t know why you’d keep Lucroy while being willing to sell off almost everything else, but I guess you need some sort of piece to build around

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: It’s always easy to recommend that a struggling team blow everything up and sell off what can be sold. It’s tougher to put into practice, when you have considerations like “who is going to want to watch this baseball team and pay money for the privilege?”