Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/28/13

May 28, 2013

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Whoa. Is this chat going to start on time?

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Sort of! Let’s do it!

9:01

Comment From Jack
Do you know anything about the NF (nasty factor) measurement of each pitch on MLB Gameday screen? I presume it is some combination of velocity, location and movement. Is this something worth keeping an eye on when trying to judge a pitcher’s performance? If so, can we get it tracked on Fangraphs?

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if they’ve changed NF over the years since it was introduced, but when it was newer, I remember Matthew Carruth did some investigation and he found it was basically worthless.

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a neat idea, but pitching is too complicated and pitch effectiveness relies too much on the pitches before and the pitches after. And PITCHf/x doesn’t know anything about deception. So their heart is in the right place, but this isn’t a stat to look at.

9:03	Comment From JFK Julio Urias from LA , top of the rotation projection?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: He is 16 years old. Quit it.

9:03	Comment From Bret Jeff when will your mock draft be out?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: That would be a fun project ironically

9:04	Comment From Ruben I played high school ball with Mariners prospect Mickey Wiswall. Just wondering if you, as a Mariners fan, are aware of him/have any opinion on him. We went to a hockey-powerhouse school in Boston with

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: You wouldn’t want to know my opinion of him, but generally speaking he is a pretty talented professional baseball player. And he has a memorable name

9:05	Comment From The other Kyle Fujikawa strung together a dominant stretch of 6-7 games after returning from the DL…now that he’s back on the DL, will this impact his return as Cubs closer if, and when, he ever gets healthy?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, the Cubs would want him to prove his health. But he’ll presumably be that guy in time. Today I learned Kevin Gregg is still pitching in the majors

9:07	Comment From Dave M. How close is the relationship of offensive production to bat speed?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: There’s an obvious relationship there but it’s of limited strength on account of needing to know what to do with that bat speed. But with a quicker bat, you can wait to commit a little longer, giving you a better look at the pitches. So it’s clearly important, but it might be correlated stronger with ISO

9:08	Comment From AJ What is a reasonable power expectation from Grandal at the closer fences in Petco?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: A slugging percentage that spends some time in the fives, and here’s a remark about PEDs

9:09	Comment From Guest manny machado’s bb% doesn’t seem to align with his plate discipline numbers. how closely do these things correlate, and, more proximately, should we expect an uptick in walks for machado?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, more walks are going to start coming, for a handful of reasons

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: When you make a lot of contact, obviously that’s a walk-rate inhibitor, because you’re ending at bats

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: And when Machado has been making contact, he’s been putting the ball in play more often than fouling the ball off. That’s another factor there, but that’ll probably balance out in time

9:12	Comment From lowercase jeff how can miguel montero go from a nearly .400 OBP last year to this? his babip is low, but that can’t explain everything. he just looks awful all the time.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Well, it’s significant when your BABIP loses 140 points year to year.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: But yeah, this one’s a mystery to me. Was just looking at Montero the other day. He’s been almost as bad as the other Montero. A career-high groundball rate suggests something has been off with his swing, even though his discipline numbers are fine

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I assume that Montero is going to recover and be a good regular backstop but around now I’d like to hear an explanation from the team or the player

9:15	Comment From Guest Skaggs, he had all 3 pitches working for him yesterday, any chance he gets someone’s (Miley) spot in the rotation?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: not yet

9:16	Comment From marc In April of 2014, is Dustin Ackley on the M’s? How do you think he’ll do if he is?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I think he is, and I think he’d be okay (not Ackley-okay, okay okay). But I’m very, very open to the possibility that he’s too broken, and that Nick Franklin is going to run away with things

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: This leads to a discussion of player evaluation vs. player development, and where the failures have come from, but from an outsider’s perspective we really don’t know and it’s too easy to blame the team instead of the player

9:17	Comment From Monday? Swinging Stike % and Fastball Velocity: Linear relationship or is there a threshold? (or to put it another way: does a velocity increase from 90 to 91 mean the same thing in terms of changed performance as a velocity increase from 95 to 96?)

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect they would mean more or less the same thing

9:18	Comment From Fozzy Bear Would you add Wacha Wacha over Ervin Santana or C.J. Wilson?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Wacha has 15 walks and 34 strikeouts in 52.2 innings in AAA for the record

9:19	Comment From John What is going on with Austin Jackson? Thought he was supposed to return when eligible, but they’re just saying he’s “not close”…is that medical terminology for…”crap”?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: He’s supposedly making progress, and he’s participating in “baseball activities,” but Jackson needs to run and his hamstring, I guess, just isn’t where it needs to be yet. It’s not dissolving. He’ll return.

9:20	Comment From The other Kyle Will Evan Gattis’ performance this year impact the Braves’ decision to re-sign McCann? Most cases the answer is an obvious yes, but is this situation different given McCann’s stature in the clubhouse and as one of the key faces of the franchise?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I think McCann ends up elsewhere, and I think the Braves cite Gattis as a reason why they’re confident they’ll be able to be okay moving forward

9:22	Comment From TJ Chris Perez finally made it to the DL! Too bad Pestano has sucked this year…do we have any clue what’s wrong with Perez?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: “Chris Perez was diagnosed with mild tendonitis of his right rotator cuff following an MRI and will not throw for 5-7 days.”

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be out for some weeks

9:22

Comment From Billy
With your wildest pitches segment, I figure this is right up your alley. Does a pitcher tend to perform better or worse if he uncorks a notably wild pitch early in the game? Experience tells me that at lower levels, this frightens hitters and makes it easier for the pitcher. Are MLBers immune to this?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: Without having done any research, I imagine the effect is basically negligible, once you control for pitcher identity. For more wild guys, batters already know they’re going to miss their spots. Is offense deterred by HBPs? Is offense deterred by HBPs in the helmet? I don’t know, but I’m guessing the answer is less interesting than the question

9:25	Comment From Joey Is there an explanation for Seth Davis hitting lefties well this season when he’s been terribad against them to this point? Just SSS?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know who that is.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Might you mean Seth Smith?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: You probably mean Seth Smith.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: There might be a mechanical explanation for why Smith has things sorted out, but I haven’t read anything to that effect, and it’s probably nothing but noise. I’m sorry to disappoint.

9:27	Comment From jlr Yelich has been brutal lately. 4 for his last 40 or something. Went from .340 to .270 in 3 weeks. Still see him as a June call up/pickup?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: 5-for-42, 1 BB, 14 K since May 17. Previous to that, he was getting comfortable in Double-A. This is a new and high level for him and prospects have to adjust to better competition. Yelich shouldn’t be up in June, based on what I’m looking at, but that doesn’t mean the Marlins won’t do it. The Marlins are aggressive with these things, as you know

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not concerned about Yelich but it does look like he needs some more development time, which is perfectly normal

9:28	Comment From Monday? Whose the star in Pittsburgh next year? Still cutch?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Cutch, with support

9:29	Comment From Guest The projections systems still like LoMo… do you agree?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a decent hitter who doesn’t do anything else

9:29	Comment From JeffW Any hope for Desmond Jennings? Can he turn it around like Austin Jackson did?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, there’s hope, but it’s looking like Jennings is getting settled into being what he is. Which is a decent and athletic regular who isn’t a star outfielder, and whose contributions can be hard to notice

9:31	Comment From The other Kyle Thoughts on Hamels’ struggles this year? He’s pitching better of late, but the results still aren’t there.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t get it ,but I’m not too concerned by it. His discipline numbers are fine, and his pitches are fine. Everything seems fine but the results, and in cases like this, as easy as it would be to panic, I have to have faith in the results catching up. That’s what I’ve been taught

9:33	Comment From Django What’s your take on Ackley’s demotion?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Appropriate and generally concerning

9:33	Comment From Mariner Our boy Morse going to reclaim his April glory? 3 dingers in May…

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Well that’s the only thing he does

9:33	Comment From Andrew How do you feel about OF of JUpton, Heyward in center, and Gattis?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I like it more with BJ Upton in it

9:34	Comment From Jake How much longer until the Nationals suck it up and DL Bryce Harper? They’re running this kid through a grinder.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: They’re probably not going to put him on the DL with bursitis. They’re just going to manage things closely, and to be honest these aches and pains are probably always going to be one of the Harper considerations. Can’t see the little injuries going away with the way that he plays

9:37	Comment From Guest Ellsbury, is he broken? His BABIP is close to what it was last year, and he is hitting .249. His ISO is under .100 again. Can we expect a somewhat rebound in the power/hitting department?

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: Instead of thinking of Ellsbury as being broken, just eliminate 2011 from his history. Then he looks basically normal. 2011 set an ultimate ceiling for Ellsbury’s production but it’s going to be his curse — no one’s ever going to forget it, so no one’s ever going to accept what Ellsbury is, assuming he isn’t that. It’s going to be Adrian Beltre disease

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Ellsbury hit for power, once. It’s weird, and it was a hell of a season, but it doesn’t look like it would be fair to expect that kind of stuff from him again.

9:39	Comment From sea salt what do players talk about at first base?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the first baseman. Some of them are more chatty or more familiar than others

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing in depth

9:40	Comment From JEB Now that they’re getting call ups who has the better season, Gausman/Wacha/Wheeler?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with Gausman?

9:40	Comment From Wobatus If Franklin produces, and Ackley starts hitting in the minors, what do you do with Ackley? Outfield, or would that kill his value? Lotta ifs there I guess.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I’d give Ackley a few reps in the outfield, but I’d also see if Ackley can replicate that success back in the majors, and I’d think a lot about trading Franklin

9:41

Comment From lowercase jeff
With the exception of the immortal Trout and Harper, just about every prospect has to go through a period of being overmatched so that they can learn to adjust. Are you at all concerned about Zunino’s struggles in AAA? Has your perception of him changed in any way or do you think it’s something everyone goes through and was kind of inevitable?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Trout hit .220/.281/.390 in 2011 in 40 games. So there was an adjustment there, even for him

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: People got way too big on Zunino way too fast, so this has been good for everyone. Zunino will pick things up, but he’ll have more in common with JP Arencibia than he will with Yadier Molina down the road

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Zunino isn’t going to be a superstar, because he’s going to have too many holes

9:43	Comment From The other Kyle Thoughts on Beachy in the second half?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: pretty good

9:43	Comment From Kevin Any idea on what kind of proprietary statistics front offices might use? I know they have access to hit f/x stuff, but beyond that what other dark secrets do clubs stat departments hold?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, it depends on the club, but HITf/x is a part of it, as is just a greater level of detail and controlling/adjusting for things. But think of it this way: pretty much every team follows the WAR formula. They just tend to have their own customized inputs

9:45	Comment From Shaun Worried about Greinke?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:45	Comment From Bill from Austin How closely does BABIP follow LD%? Is there a theoretical BABIP given GB%, LD%, FB%, and IFF%?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: BABIP is correlated to LD%, because line drives are good, but LD% is a crummy statistic so you shouldn’t use it

9:46

Comment From Pat
Does FG have aggregate Pitch/FX data for each pitch type across all of baseball? I ask because I was drooling over Kershaw curveball numbers, but then I looked at a bunch of other pitchers who aren’t known for their curveball and they had outstanding numbers with it too (I’m sure part of it is when it’s being thrown in the count). I was hoping for something to back up this very anecdotal observation.

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: It’s all in the database but it’s not publicly available, the way you describe. And remember that pitches don’t exist in isolation — they all depend on the other pitches that are getting thrown, so a guy who doesn’t have a great curveball might have a great statistical curveball just because people aren’t expecting it

9:47	Comment From Kenny Powers What do you expect from Wacha this year?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: less than the prospect hounds

9:48	Comment From Monday? Kemp BA .178 past two weeks. What is going on?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: And look at that UZR! Coming around to the idea that Kemp just can’t be healthy. Something is nagging him that he’s playing through and it’s killing him and the team around him

9:48

Comment From The other Kyle
2-parter…Every year, there’s an Edward Mujica or Fernando Rodney or some other journeyman reliever who’s able to provide a dominant closer season. Will this ever impact GM’s willingness to drop serious coin on closers? And are there any predictive metrics you would use to identify these potential “breakout” journeymen?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t proven closers already had their market value diminished? There’s an existing trend away from spending big on 9th-inning guys. The best identifier of a guy who could be a good closer is whether a guy has been good in the earlier innings. That’s a dumb answer but it’s what I’ve got

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there was any giveaway that Fernando Rodney would be amazing, once

9:51	Comment From Goose Should the Tigers consider moving Porcello for Ackley? It seems both have raw talent, and could use a change of scenery

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Mariners have a lot more team control of Ackley so I don’t think that would get done

9:52	Comment From Timmy Could the cubs be setting themselves up this year for a pretty rapid turnaround over the next 2-4 years with a return to the top of the NL? I feel like they have a good young core in Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija and could reload the system big time at the deadline this year?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably not going to be the deadline you imagine it to be, but yeah, the Cubs are rising and plenty of things could happen within 2-4 years. I have a good amount of trust in that organization, and before long they’llbe playing meaningful baseball

9:54	Comment From harmony Contracts aside, who is currently the more valuable player: Jacoby Ellsbury or Michael Bourn? What will Ellsbury need to accomplish this year to top Bourn’s four-year, $48 million contract?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Bourn, probably, by a bit. Ellsbury could start by being a more average hitter

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: It’d be good to see Ellsbury reach a .340 OBP or so. But he’s going to get paid. He’s got a lot of name value to him, and the right agent

9:56	Comment From AJ Catch any of Skaggs’ start yesterday, Jeff? Thoughts? The curve was filthy.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll watch some of the highlights later but I basically took the long weekend off. Except to watch a bunch of Didi Gregorius. Didi Gregorius!

9:57	Comment From Dave Can Jeff Locke sustain this sort of success? His K:BB ratio is improving month on month.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: If I recall correctly, no starting pitcher has a lower Zone% right now than Jeff Locke does.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: He’s got it in him to be a good pitcher and you can succeed with some grounders and twice as many strikeouts as walks, but the ERA regression’s coming, of course, because that’s the way things work