Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/10/14

June 10, 2014

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hello there, friends?

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hello there, friends! I wasn’t looking at the queue by accident.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: So let’s talk like we usually talk. Remember, either don’t ask fantasy questions or disguise them, because I will not give you good advice, because I cannot give good advice, because I do not play the game that you play

9:03	Comment From person hscer Boy I sure am glad Stephen Strasburg pitches for my favorite team.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Another great example of a guy we just take for granted now. Strasburg is so 2010

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: meanwhile he’s striking out 30% of the dudes that he faces

9:05	Comment From Inquiring Mind What kind of outlook do you see for Kyle Seager?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: This, basically. He’s blossomed into a quality player, and while I don’t think he has that much more upside, he has managed to add a little bit of power this season to boost his own stock. A 4-WAR kind of peak, and probably a long career in which he makes the most of what he has

9:06	Comment From TVM Dave Cameron has been conspicuously silent regarding the M’s this year. Has he shared any thoughts with you?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: You can probably guess what his thoughts are

9:06	Comment From Guest Hey Jeff,

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hey Guest

9:06	Comment From quinceleather I am intrigued by the closer carnage this year and curious what you think the O’s discovered about Balfour and what the Ray’s missed?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: It might not really be that simple. I mean, Joe Nathan is struggling too, right? It’s possible this is all just a coincidence

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: But then Balfour’s velocity is down two ticks. He’s never before been at this level. So the Orioles might’ve seen a hint of something and obviously Balfour at less than 100% is a problem

9:08	Comment From Johnny Ray Mack With Latos return, how do you rank Latos, Bailey, & Cueto?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Cueto first, then it’s a virtual push. Somewhat depends on how Latos comes back

9:09	Comment From Jon How reliable is team FIP? Is it good stat to see how well the pitching staff is or is it generally better to use it for one pitcher?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: It’s fine on the team level

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Regressions still apply though

9:10	Comment From austin any guesstimations as to when the mookie monster will be in boston?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: No educated ones. He’s still got pretty limited experience in center field, and it’s not like he has any experience to call on in a corner. So he’s not going to come up in a hurry, and if he absolutely tears things up, maybe you’re looking at a month from now? But it’s probably further off

9:12	Comment From Johnny Ray Mack Any concerns over Alex Cobb?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Not really. He’s even gained a little velocity. He’s probably fine, although it’s possible last year represented his ceiling, or something close to it

9:13	Comment From Jared Jeff, who do you think performs better ROS: Polanco or Marte? Thanks!

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Polanco at the plate, roughly even overall

9:14	Comment From austin heaney ETA?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Soon. He’s got two walks and 27 strikeouts in Triple-A. The Marlins aren’t going to absolutely hurry him, but they’ll promote him to his level, and it’s looking like his level is the bigs

9:15	Comment From Oface Whats different about Nelson Cruz this year? Can this keep up even remotely close to current pace?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t found anything meaningfully different. Nor would you expect him to be doing anything differently

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: He’s just hit a few more balls over the fence than you’d expect, given his historical rates. Everything’s there but the ordinary HR/FB. That’s to his credit — those are good swings — but it’s a difference of a handful of swings over 2.5 months. Cruz has done well for himself, but I don’t think this is a new level

9:17	Comment From Kinbote Any hope for Hosmer? Where did all the enthusiasm for him go to?!

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: At least he finally homered again

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Hope remains, but he is what he was in 2012. In 2012 he was worth -1.7 WAR. He’s only 24 and he was a good enough hitter a year ago to earn a longer leash, but right now you question what his ceiling really is. Doesn’t seem like a special player

9:19	Comment From Confused Fellow I added up the World Series odds on your standings page, is there really only a 45.2% chance that the NL will send a representative to the World Series?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: 45.2% chance the NL will win it

9:20	Comment From austin does heaney project to be a strikeout guy? i noticed he’s striking out a lot of guys at Triple A

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: He won’t be a low-strikeout guy, but he’s more of a strike-thrower with good stuff than a prospect with great stuff. Frequently in and around the zone

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: This year, 69% strikes in Double-A, 68% strikes in Triple-A

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: (league averages: 63%)

9:22	Comment From Jon How embarrassing was Manny Machado this weekend?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: As embarrassing as most 21-year-olds

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: That’s kind of a half-joke. Most 21-year-olds don’t try to cripple other people. But then, Machado wasn’t thinking about crippling anybody — he was just lashing out without considering the consequences. Emotions don’t get the best of you so much as you get older. He acted young and stupid and people won’t forget that for years

9:23	Comment From Andrew My official position: Manny Machado wasn’t necessarily trying to throw a bat at anyone, but he wasn’t trying particularly hard to NOT throw a bat at anyone. Does that make sense?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I think he was extremely frustrated, and he acted in the most immediate way he knew how. It’s kind of like if you’re mad at home you might punch a wall or slam a desk or something. It feels good to rage out, and then two seconds later you’re really embarrassed

9:24	Comment From Andrew Who else are we taking for granted now?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Every good player!

9:25	Comment From Tom Thanks for chatting, Jeff! Does Cory Kluber’s low swinging strike rate (relative to his K rate) suggest that his K rate is unsustainable?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: He has a lower contact rate than Yu Darvish, who has a higher strikeout rate

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t buy Kluber as one of the absolute strikeout elites, so in that sense I think he regresses some, but I don’t think he falls back to a low level. I think he’s awesome, and right now he’s pitching around peak-awesome

9:26	Comment From Guest If Ji man Choi fails or isnt very good will Peterson get a shot this yr? The M’s have been aggressive in promoting some younger guys.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Peterson has had all of a good month and a half in the California League

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Also they still think Smoak isn’t bad

9:28	Comment From Jacob Matt Cains fangraphs are U G L Y, what should we expect going foward?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not worried yet, but his command isn’t what his old command was. Stuff seems mostly fine. Just want him to pull up his strikes

9:30	Comment From Tampa Timmy Hi Jeff. Hope all is well. Just wondering if you know much about Kevin Kiermaier. Early on, he looks pretty good.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: with the Rays: three homers, 46 plate appearances

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: so he’s at six homers in 2014, which ties his professional season high

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: He’s best-known for his defense, and that’s the asset that first got him to the majors. Because of his defense, he doesn’t need to hit that much to turn into a useful regular or semi-regular. And I don’t think he *will* hit much, but he should hit enough to stick with the Rays for a while as a versatile sort

9:33	Comment From alex meyer how long til i’m in the big leagues?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: God willing, any week now

9:34	Comment From BDF Cliff Lee trade: foregone conclusion? I mean, Jonah Keri now officially has the Phils as the worst team in baseball. If it’s going to happen, who are the contenders and what might the Phils expect?

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: It’s June 10 and Cliff Lee is presently hurt with an elbow problem. He needs to get back to full strength, and then he needs to get enough innings to prove that he isn’t damaged goods. In order to move Lee before the deadline, it’s kind of a race against time, and I don’t think it’s going to come together the way it ideally would

9:35	Comment From Stanatee the Manatee Who else would be on the list with Strasburg of guys we’ll look back at in 10-20 years and think, holy crap, how did we not realize how amazing these guys were?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: This is a tougher question than I expected

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: It’s also just hard to get a sense of average-fan perspective vs. FanGraphs-reader perspective. Like, I’d say guys like Beltre and Utley but everyone here’s been on board for years

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Hell, at this rate, Josh freakin Donaldson

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Adam Wainwright is a miracle every turn

9:39	Comment From Guest Was Chisenhall a good prospect that never got a real chance? now hes just flat out raking

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: #31 overall by BA before 2010, #25 overall before 2011

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: 1st-round pick, finally hitting, finally leaving the realm of the busted

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe not “finally” — he’s only 25. But this was the offseason where the Indians put Carlos Santana at third because they didn’t believe in their internal options

9:41	Comment From person hscer What would be your answer to Mike Petriello’s rhetorical question, “Why would you ever throw Derek Jeter anything but a fastball?”?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Game theory, bitches

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Sliders inside, sliders low

9:42	Comment From Bart What kind of a future does Derrick Norris have with the A’s being that he is currently splitting time with Jaso?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Norris is more of an actual catcher

9:42	Comment From B-to-the-mother-fn-ob Thoughts on Khris Davis continuing being Khris-mother-f’n-Davis?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: The first month, it was all, “what happened to Khris Davis?” The second month, it was all, “look at Khris Davis!” Khris Davis is in between those two Khris Davises. Because he’s a power guy who doesn’t walk, he’s always going to be the streaky type

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Also apparently he walks some now. I guess this calls for a deeper investigation. But, he’s more of an average player than a great one

9:44	Comment From tommy la stella i’m pretty good, aren’t i? also…when will i hit my first extra base hit?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: you might never

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe an outfielder will dive for one of your loopers and miss, though

9:44	Comment From ellie Yeah it looked like Seager was getting robbed on some pretty well hit balls and good at bats this last series

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: He hits the ball hard a lot. Almost always to the pull side

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: career .497 wOBA to the pull side, .284 and .256 up the middle and the other way

9:46	Comment From Alex Is Brandon Phillips cooked? OPS at 706 last year and his mark this season isn’t any better. Anything the Reds can do?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Walks down, power down, strikeouts up, 33 in a few weeks. Still not a bad player but he’s not getting any better

9:47	Comment From Guest How long will the mariners have to keep up their success to finally be taken seriously

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: People will take them more seriously when they’re not winning games starting Willie Bloomquist at first base

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I’m as excited as you are, but let’s not pretend like this team is making a whole lot of sense

9:48	Comment From Jills Nipple With Polanco finally up, you guys get to switch from “When’s he coming up?” To “When’s he gonna be as good as Cutch?”

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: or we’ll just go back to Nick Franklin trade rumors

9:48	Comment From Matthew Kory What is your favorite part about baseball, Jeff? Is it the white part, or the red part?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: the red part makes it move funny

9:49	Comment From Guest Dave seemed somewhat optimistic on Espn Radio last week in Seattle he said the M’s need to trade for Marlon Byrd

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Makes sense to me. Righty, outfielder, hits, cheap

9:50	Comment From Mack Shin-Soo Choo is rocking a 72 wRC+ over the last two months, and he’s clearly playing hurt. Even though the Rangers have no healthy position players on the 40 who aren’t on the active roster, is he benefiting anyone by trying to grind it out every day?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Wait, what?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: 151 wRC+ in April, 131 in May, 14 in a small June sample

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: He’s definitely playing hurt, but it seems manageable, and the alternatives all suck.

9:51	Comment From Indians Fan DO the Indians turn it around now? With Kipnis getting going, Brantley playing good, Chisenhall (though last night is probably a fluke). Do they make a run at the Tigers?

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: Aren’t they already making a run at the Tigers? Before the year, they looked a handful of games worse, and since then Salazar has disappointed. But, Brantley and Chisenhall look like they’ve made substantial improvements and the Tigers are getting less from Justin Verlander. That seems to make up a lot of the gap, to me

9:53	Comment From Guest How many WAR was Lonnie’s night worth last night?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: 0.6, apparently

9:53	Comment From Dan What do you think about Danny Santana?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I think that I don’t think that he’s very good

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: hasn’t hit in Triple-A, hasn’t hit in Double-A, didn’t even really hit in Single-A

9:54	Comment From braves fan why is alex wood still in the bullpen?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: No one in the rotation sucks enough

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Harang should suck enough, but, for now…

9:55	Comment From Bruce If I told you in 2008 that 6 years from now Willie Bloomquist would DH for your favortie team, how would you have reacted?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: in 2008 my favorite team DH’d Jose Vidro and started Miguel Cairo at first base for a quarter of the season

9:56	Comment From Slow Mobius So does Giambi get cut/phantom injured when Swisher is ready to come back? Can’t see them keeping him given Chisenhall’s play and needing Kottaras so that Santana doesn’t keep getting hurt catching

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, seems like Giambi is on the way out

9:57	Comment From Jord Windy Any chance Verlander is just in cruise control, gearing up for the second half of the season?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:57	Comment From Guest Do you think climate change is ever considered by MLB as an intervening variable in the future of the sport? More storms means more double headers and make up games.

9:58	Comment From Jon Nats rotation: 47k v. 0 BBs in last 6 starts. Is this not the most amazing stat of the season?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Ben Revere hit a home run!

9:59	Comment From Andrew With the additions of Fowler, Springer and Singleton, the Astros suddenly have legit offensive players at C (kind of), 1B, 2B, CF and RF. Do you think Dominguez improves enough to become part of the Astros’ future core?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’ll become a core piece,but I suspect he’ll stick around as decent cheap support