Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/11/13

June 11, 2013

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Look, at this point if you haven’t figured out that being late is part of my schtick, that’s your problem.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Not that it was intended this way, but look where we are!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I am the worst FanGraphs employee!

9:08	Comment From Time Why do you disrespect me?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I have a different concept of you

9:08	Comment From Goose Please rank RoS! Hosmer, Belt, Konerko

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Belt/Konerko/Hosmer? Now guess the order!

9:08	Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i) if Chat questions are submitted but there is no moderator to moderate/post them is the event truly live?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I think we can all agree that maybe

9:08	Comment From rusty Hisashi Iwakuma: #1 most-searched MLB player on fangraphs! Did you ever think you’d see the day?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I think there was a stretch where Joel Guzman was mysteriously the most searched player on fangraphs. Nothing weirds me out anymore.

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Interesting to see that, though. I assume it’s fantasy baseball-driven. Are people still not familiar with Iwakuma? Are they extra convinced now that he’s shut down the Astros? Wouldn’t the good thing to do have been to pick him up before that start?

9:10	Comment From lowercase jeff when do you start doubting that hamels will turn it around? his only hamels-like performances lately have been against the marlins. and those are the marlins.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Officially, this is a concern of mine, because it’s been more than two months, which is an arbitrary amount of time. The problem is with the diagnosis. I have no idea what to make of what Hamels has been going through — it’s just clear he’s been going through something

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: My inclination is still to say “unfortunate sequencing” and that Hamels will be okay but at some point you look stupid still counting on the math and we’re approaching that point

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: It’s kind of like with Lincecum in a way. Look at that xFIP! But, the rest of the picture.

9:13	Comment From Spencer What should the Braves do when Beachy comes back? People seem to think Beachy to the ‘pen is the move to “get his strength back,” but isn’t that the idea behind rehab?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: It could buy them some more time to make a decision and get Beachy re-acquainted with big-league hitters. If no one’s struggling, it’s hard to pull somebody out. Eventually they’re going to need a sixth starter, and right now you can’t yank Teheran

9:15	Comment From lowercase jeff more likely to be ok: hamels or cain?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to say Cain?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: But not for a convincing reason. They’re both in similar places, to me

9:16	Comment From NatsFan except JZ, rotation is inconsistent and lineup isn’t producing. why should a Nats fan be optimistic about Nats’ chances of making it to postseason?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Healthy Strasburg, healthy Harper, healthy Werth, healthy Espinosa, productive Rendon

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: It’s becoming clear we might’ve overrated the Nationals before the season, and that’s our bad, but there’s still a lot they’ve got going for them

9:18	Comment From Hieronymous Which division do you think is better: NL Central or AL East?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I think I’m actually going to say NL Central!

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I did say it, right there!

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Might get balanced out by the minor AL superiority but that Central division is something else

9:18	Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i) excited about any of the big news out of E3?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I look forward to somebody telling me what this means!

9:21	Comment From rusty have you seen Dirk Heyhurst’s take on PEDs? (http://dirkhayhurst.com/2013/06/altruisms-vs-compounding-interest/) any thoughts?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: “There is no premium market for organic players. Winners are the only thing that sells in this business, chemically enriched or otherwise.”

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I only just now read this — in the middle of the chat — so I haven’t had time to consume it fully. But at first read, it’s right on.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: There’s very little to actually deter a player from taking PEDs, especially if he’s on the fringe of getting a big-league career. And people forgive quite easily, because people don’t really care all that much, not as much as the media says.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Most recently, from Hayhurst, I read this, which is also good http://dirkhayhurst.com/2013/06/5308/

9:26	Comment From Guest what are your thoughts on Jacob Turner?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Not real interested. Which sounds harsh for a former top prospect who’s still 22,but he’s missing something in his development and he won’t be much to think about until he finds it

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Turner has 111 strikeouts in 163.2 Triple-A innings

9:27	Comment From Prich The Dodgers want to be rid of Ethier and some of his contract, the Ms desperately need help in the OF, have a strong farm system, a bit of money to spend… Seems like a fit.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: It does, doesn’t it? You can expect them to talk. You can expect the Dodgers and lots of teams to talk, about Ethier. At first, the Dodgers will decline to buy out that much of Ethier’s contract, but it’s pretty evident they’ll have to do something and other teams will wait them out

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: It would really help them to have Ethier not suck

9:28	Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i) I hear that Time is pissed and wants you to come down to the clubhouse for a chat

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I’m a diva

9:29	Comment From Eddie What is Boston doing with RDLR? He finally goes 5 innings, in 70 pitches, and they pull him! Why won’t they let him get stretched out?!?!

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: He threw 83 pitches the game before http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=delaro001rub&type=pgl&year=2013

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: They’re just being careful with him, and he’s also coming back from a side injury. Things are going to be fine.

9:30	Comment From Timothy Heyward FINALLY turning around!

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny the way this can be perceived. On the one hand, it’s simple regression to the mean for a highly talented player with a track record of success. So it’s not surprising, in the way it wouldn’t be surprising for Ike Davis to turn out all right. But this regression is also the product of an awful lot of work. I think, when people think about regression, what’s ignored is that it’s probably fueled by effort on the playesr’ part, and it’s not an automatic process

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Players might regress at least in part because when they struggle, they work hard to fix what’s wrong. Then they more or less re-establish a true talent. This is only a hypothesis

9:31	Comment From Zach There’s a question floating around the internet (I saw it via Neyer) as to whether tonight’s Colon-Sabathia matchup is the heaviest in MLB history. I love fat pitchers, do you?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Not really. I prefer little pitchers, and two-dimensional pitchers like Chris Sale. Those second guys remind me of me and I’m a fan of me

9:32	Comment From Guest Please rank: Volcanos, Beer, Sex Dungeons

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Volcanoes, beer, sex dungeons

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: With an additional comma: Sex, volcanoes, beer, dungeons

9:33	Comment From Kris Do you think he Cards will move Wainwright to the pen once Westbrook comes back? I mean Wainwright has significant bullpen experience and…I can’t do it.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I should have read the rest of this before accepting it into the chat

9:33	Comment From Guest Haiku for you: Like a caldera / Which player’s hot start do you / think will soon collapse?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Too easy to say Jeff Locke?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Everth Cabrera needs to settle down

9:35	Comment From sea salt JJ Hardy is hitting .270! regression coming or is this the new-old Hardy?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: The last time Hardy struck out this infrequently, he batted .277

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: What’s going on with the Orioles and strikeout elimination? This seems like a thing to be studied

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe by me, today! Let’s find out!

9:36	Comment From neal PUIGSES CHRIST! This is getting insane.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Puig puts us in a delicate position. Allow me to explain:

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: First instinct is to fall in love and declare that he’s amazing. He really is an amazing player. What kind of player has this first week?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Second instinct, inescapable instinct, is to find the flaws and try to beat reality to the reality check. “Oh he’s too aggressive, this’ll never continue.” “He’s just another aggressive power hitter with some flashy tools. The league will adjust.”

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: There needs to be a third position, a zen position. What’s the right, most thoughtful way to feel about Puig? Is it to knowingly appreciate the fleeting unbelievability? What are we supposed to DO with this guy?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe I’m overthinking this

9:38	Comment From tehzachatak I think you have a “loose relationship” with time, just like my girlfriend.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I swear I used to pride myself on always being on time. Then I made tardy friends

9:39	Comment From sea salt Cingrani, Cole, Wheeler – who stays up longer?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Wheeler

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Unless you mean for their entire careers, in which case, Wheeler

9:39	Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i) Jhoulys Chacin: actually kinda good? (~25th in FIP right now amongst qualified SP)

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact:

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: 2011: 56% grounders 2012: 39% 2013: 50%

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: That doesn’t answer your question. Yeah, he’s fine. He needed to up his Ks or trim his walks, and he’s pulled off the latter

9:41	Comment From Michael Morse Am I extended before the trade deadline?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I’m less inclined to think so than I was a couple months ago. God I hope not

9:41	Comment From juan pierres mustache What percentage of the questions you receive but do not post are just wholly inappropriate for a family site?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: 2%

9:41	Comment From The other Kyle Thoughts on ROS ABs for Gattis? I know the company line of “we’ll find him at-bats,” but no BS, how are they going to get him the ABs he deserves?

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: The simplest answer is “they aren’t.” He deserves more ABs than he’s going to get, in the rest of this season. Obviously he’ll find some time in the outfield, but presuming the outfielders are better than they’ve looked, Gattis is just going to have to wait for 2014 to become a true regular.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not really a problem, so long as the Braves players play like they’re supposed to. They just have too much ability

9:43	Comment From Anon21 Jeff, between this luck business and the “maybe umpire mistakes are good for baseball” piece, I think you should consider the possibility that you are an incurable contrarian.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: The umpire thing was a thought exercise, a suggestion of which I’m certainly not convinced. And the response to that was too short-sighted. The luck thing, I do believe in, even if I might not have expressed myself very well.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Also, yes, duh. Hello I live in Portland

9:45	Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i) how many searches does the top searched player on a given day get at FG?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the answer to that, but on Rotoworld it’s in the high four figures!

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: So that’s the answer to your question, for Rotoworld!

9:45	Comment From cm What do the Mariners do with their middle infielder jam, especially if Ackley turns out to be not terrible?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Give Ackley some reps in the outfield and explore trading one of him/Franklin

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve assumed Franklin was trade bait for like a year and a half. It’s funny how now he’s looking like a potential long-term asset

9:46	Comment From The other Kyle Thoughts on BioGenesis suspensions? Will players actually miss games this season?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: My first thought is I would be surprised. My second thought is I’m going to read this right after the chat is over http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-and-biogenesis-a-primer/

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: You should read it too, probably!

9:47	Comment From marichal your thoughts on Kyle Blanks?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Hitter

9:47	Comment From Tom Does every fangraphs writer have a huge man crush on Corey Kluber?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I can assure you that no

9:49	Comment From rusty How long can Tony Cingrani continue to succeed against major-league hitters relying so heavily on a single pitch?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: As long as he’s putting it where he wants, is the easy cop-out answer. You might check out http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=375&position=P#pitchtype

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Cingrani doesn’t throw one pitch — the threat of something else is always present. It’s on him and his catcher to find the right randomness

9:51	Comment From Bird If you had to take one pitcher for the rest of their career, who would it be between Teheran/Bauer/Wheeler/Wacha/Gausman

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Instinct is to say Gausman but Teheran makes it difficult on account of already having major-league success. That part usually isn’t given enough credit

9:52	Comment From Nona Mecklenberg Is Dickey a buy low opportunity or just in trouble?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: yes

9:52	Comment From JEB Gerrit Cole. Initially takes over the number 1 slot for the Pirates. Or struggles this year in the majors?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: How about in between?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably not going to be as good as Burnett, but he should be effective enough

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: As with Wacha, I can’t help but be a little confused about the limited strikeouts in Triple-A

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: That’s too easy but it also can’t be ignored

9:53	Comment From lowercase jeff rendon has performed admirably at 2b since being called up (especially in contrast to what espinosa had been doing). if he has a decent year, do you see him holding onto the 2b job for 2014?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: If Rendon is good enough, the Nationals will make that room for him, yeah. But we haven’t heard the last of Danny Espinosa

9:54	Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i) Votto’s face of disappointment after his Foul Popup to shallow left fielded by the 3B may be one of my favorite “faces of MLB” .gif Thank you

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: And I’m still hurt by the mean commenter! 🙁

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Votto makes some good faces. He’s got an unusual face for a superstar baseball player, if that makes any sense. He looks like some other office-y sort of professional

9:56	Comment From The other Kyle Any explanation for Headley’s struggles?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: The fact that he had a thumb injury could be a thing, but all I can really think about is, I wonder what the Padres could have traded him for over the winter. I’m sure he’s going to do better than this, but now the equations are changing

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Headley will come away with reduced value, making him an easier long-term sign, but a less desirable long-term sign too

9:58	Comment From Ty If you had to guess what do Profar’s #’s look like in 2 years?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=6&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: ?

9:58	Comment From Joe hogan Is Pujols finished or just playing injured?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Hurt, worse

9:58	Comment From Dave Dickey has been dropped in my league. Worthy of a waiver wire pickup?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Knowing nothing about your league, yeah, probably

9:59	Comment From lowercase jeff some homers have (erroneously, given his difficulty with breaking balls at AAA) compared zunino to posey. what is a more realistic expectation for him at his prime?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: JP Arencibia